Pro Pundits

Using xG data to identify the best low-owned options for Gameweek 28 and beyond

Six-time top 5k finisher Utkarsh Dalmia – aka Zophar –  talks us through some alternative FPL assets as we approach the second Blank Gameweek of the campaign.


The first truncated Gameweek of the season is upon us and the phrase “a hit is only a minus two this week” is being thrown about as usual.

There is some logic to this – if one of your players is going to score zero points this week, then selling him for someone who has a fixture should secure a minimum of two points for an appearance alone.

However, this not always the case, with rotation, yellow cards and conceding goals often having an effect. You also might end up, as Triggerlips used to say, “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” if you sell someone like Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m)

For the purpose of this article, I’m focusing on identifying lesser-owned players who I believe can repay a hit this week as well as form part of your squad for the next three weeks leading up to Blank Gameweek 31. I’m ignoring goalkeepers as their ceiling is quite low.

First, I’m looking at the Custom Table for xGOT (expected goals on target) both for and against over the last four Gameweeks to identify the whipping boys, and then looking at the Season Ticker to see which teams play them.

As this piece draws heavily on stats from our Members Area, most of it is available only to subscribers.

In terms of my team, Barnes will likely come in for Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m). With Leroy Sane (£9.3m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) nearing fitness, I’m not confident of the Algerian’s prospects for the long term despite the rumours (and they are only that, for now) of a possible Double Gameweek 29 for the champions.

This will leave me with £4.2m in the bank. so I’m tempted to take a hit for Pereira or Doherty to sort out the Martin Kelly (£4.2m)/Diego Rico (£4.3m) problems but would also like to have some cash in the bank to make moves for City players if they do indeed have a double next week.

Bringing in Jota for Mason Greenwood (£4.3m) is also an option but after his display against Watford, I think selling him for a hit could potentially backfire.

All the Custom Tables used are accessible in the Members Area. Hope you enjoyed reading.


An FPL veteran of 10 seasons, Utkarsh Dalmia has been a member of the site right since 2009 and has finished in the top 5k in six of those campaigns, with a best finish of 17th in 2010. A Chelsea fan based in India, he relies heavily on statistics for his FPL decision-making process.

1,067 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Oli McBurnie: “Sergio Ramos 26 career red cards

    1. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Insane that innit.

    2. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Not sure why the full comment hasn’t posted!

    3. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You know Jesus was going to miss too

    4. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      And it should’ve been dozens more (including the CL final two years ago). People will celebrate Ramos retirement and not for his talent.

  2. Distinctly Average
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Pope or McCarthy for the next few weeks?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Pope seeing GW31 is important.

    2. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Pope if not using free hit in GW 31, McCarthy if you're OK with using free hit in GW 31 or really need the money.

    3. Distinctly Average
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks both

  3. Teahupo'o
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Plan this gw is to ship out Rico for Doherty/Boly (along with Auba to Vardy). Take the Rico price drop and wait for Friday news about a possible dgw or pull the trigger now?

    Pope
    TAA Stephens Williams Rico
    Salah Mane Traore Cantwell
    Jimenez Ings

    (Button, Tanganga Auba Mahrez)
    1FT 2.6ITB

    1. Onana Whatsmyname
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You could just pull the trigger....Rico isn’t nailed on to start

      1. Teahupo'o
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers

    2. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Dont like Auba > Vardy for hit if you have 11 starters

      1. Teahupo'o
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks. Leicester fixtures are rather tempting and there are questions on whether I'd have 11 starters with the likes of Rico Williams Tanganga.

    3. sandman58
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Just do Ings to Vardy

  4. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Oli McBurnie: “Sergio Ramos 26 career red cards! More reds than I’ve had appearances!!”

  5. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    fleck to

    A) barnes/perez (have vardy)
    B) snody
    C) mount
    D) djenepo/armstrong (have ings)
    E) grealish
    F) mcneil
    G) sa.maximin

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Would you really do E)?

    2. Onana Whatsmyname
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A or C both good

      1. Onana Whatsmyname
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        G if you want a massive punt that could pay off and be Traore version 2.0

    3. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

  6. BOATIES FC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Pope
    TAA VVD Soy Rico
    Salah traore Cantwell
    Vardy Jimmy DCL
    Button KDB Grealish O'Connell

    1 ft 4.4m itb

    Rico to Doherty / R Perreria
    Grealish to B Fernandes or H Barnes
    Or both for a hit?

  7. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Early thoughts on this lot?

    Ryan Button
    TAA Soy Boly Dunk (Kelly)
    Salah Mane Traore Cantwell (KDB)
    Ings Vardy Jimmy

    1 FT, 0.3m in bank.

    Anything worth a FT and who would you bench?

    Cheers.

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Bench Traore if he starts tomorrow night

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I'd probably sell him tbh.

        1. Syd.
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I will be selling him if he starts tomorrow night just haven’t decided who for yet.

    2. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Looks very good for this week actually!

      Take the risk and bench Todd and you are GTG.

    3. Teahupo'o
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Looks G2G. I'd bench Dunk and Kelly.

    4. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Save surely! Great team! Bench Dunk or Cantwell!

    5. lespaul
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      i'd bench cantwell and roll the FT

    6. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'd consider Traore to Barnes, or save.

      1. nolard
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        This, and I would get Pope if you can spare a transfer.

    7. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers all. Saving is best but a 20% channce for me.

    8. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Easy save imo

    9. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Contraversial maybe given his recent popularity but I'd be tempted to move Traore on for another mid in that price bracket. I got him a couple of weeks ago and currently regretting it, not sure it's just been injury management, Nuno preferring the new formation is another possibility. I'd probable bench Boly away to Spurs and double up on Brighton defence against Palace.

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers for the detailed response. Brighton vs Palace has very little CS in their derbies. Tempted to sell Traore or KDB tbh which is obviously risky in the future.

        1. TLF
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I've also looked at KDB out but already have 3 Pool and there are no other premium mids with a fixture I like this week. Who would you sell him for if you did ?

    10. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ryan out definitely

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I think Ryan is the keeper to own this week

  8. Riverside Red
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Fernandes or Martial, which player is the best option to replace Grealish

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I want to say Tony but has to be Bruno

      Penalties,Set-pieces,and heart of the midfield

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        This

    2. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Bruno

  9. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Will ask 1 more time
    I have a full team for this week but I am so very tempted by this..

    Gomez+KDB TO Mane+Doherty/6.1 million defender=-4

    Yay or nay I would get KDB back in for Burnley.

    1. rjcv177
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      kdb back for who?

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Mane or I would get rid of Vardy (who I just got)

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If KDB continues his terrible record vs United, sure.
      Might get a penalty which is worth 8 points if scored as he's good at bonus.

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers but even if he does Sadie could outscore him!

        1. Champions League Varane
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Sadio lol

        2. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          He will this GW. CL means some rotation for Pool on the cards.

          1. Champions League Varane
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Forgot about this! Good point it might not be the greatest move after all.!

          2. ewangri
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Sadio Mane that played 20 v Norwich, 45 v Atleti and 90 against West Ham? Can't see him being rotated tbh, more likely to be one of Salah/Bobby

  10. rjcv177
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Evening guys.
    With a lot of hits flying on my ML...i'm tempted also.

    A) Aguero
    to Vardy (FT, playing one of Hayden/Rico)

    B) Aguero and Traore
    to Vardy and H.Barnes (-4, playing one of Hayden/Rico)

    C) Aguero, Hayden and Kelly
    to Vardy, H.Barnes and Lascelles (-8, bench Traore)

    Thkx in adv

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think A and just hope one of Hayden/Rico starts

      1. rjcv177
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        thkx...only one to stop by and say hello.
        GL to your BGW28 😉

  11. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    1 free transfer and 1 m in bank- would like Fernandes - but only way is moving Mané/Salah to him and Fernández to Robertson for -4. KDB blanks but bought at 9.7 m and would probably want him back post so not really an option to get rid.

    A Team gtg
    B make moves for -4

    Pope
    TAA Boly Stephens
    Salah Mané Barnes Mooy
    Jiménez Ings DCL

    Henderson Fernández KDB Stevens

    1. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      GTG

  12. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Pope
    TAA Robbo Lascelles Taylor Stevens*
    Salah Traore*
    Kun* Jimenez Ings

    Hendo* Hayden KDB* Fleck*

    Traore, Kun & Stevens to Bruno, Vardy & Boly for -4?

    1. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes,good moves

  13. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who to get in this week?

    A) Richarlsion/Bruno
    B) Pereira

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      When will you get the other one?

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I actually think B

        1. Champions League Varane
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          And get one of A the following

      2. JJeyy
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        nexxt week if still wanted

  14. Bonus magnet
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Aubameyang close to a price rise

    Confused

  15. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Hi....no idea what to doxwirh auba....

    A....bench him and play 532 with an uninspiring tean

    B....ditch for vardy 433. Prob not get him back

    Thanks

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      See how tomorrow goes.

    2. Can’t beat em so&hell…
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      He’s got to be worth keeping for the 3 after surely if you can get a decent team out... Vardy not exactly banging them in...

  16. CRO KLOPP
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Anything worth a hit?
    0 FT,0.8 itb

    Kasper
    TAA Robbo Taylor Dunk
    Salah Martial Cantwell
    Vardy Jimenez Ings
    (4.0 Holgate KDB Grealish)

    1. Can’t beat em so&hell…
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      All good

    2. MOTHRA
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Solid that team.

  17. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I am visionary.

    DANIEL S. 10 Years26th Feb 2020 14:47
    Can't wait to see KDB takes the first next penalty. Hopefully he will be my captain too

    1. FPL price manipulators are …
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      When will you be accepted as a pro pundit?

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Soon my friend

  18. G Banger
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Evening all...

    Hendo*
    Soy TAA Lascelles Stephens
    H.Barnes Mane(C) Salah
    Vardy Jiminez DCL

    Button Sais Hayden KDB*

    a) GTG
    b) Change bench
    c) Button => Pope (-4)

    1. Can’t beat em so&hell…
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Gtg

    2. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      C

    3. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Would definitely be tempted by C, could pay off but depends on if you’re planning to use funds in future

  19. Can’t beat em so&hell…
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Right... hope you can follow this.... over the next 2 weeks doing...

    Kun + Firmino + Moura —> Auba + greenwood + Salah

    Was going to do no FT this week and all next for a -4....

    McCarthy/ McG
    TAA/ Soy/ Lasc/ Rico/ Lund
    KDB/ Mane/ Traore/ Barnes/ (Moura)
    Jimmy/ (kun)/ (Firmino)

    If I do one this week the only one I can afford is Aguero to Greenwood. Any reason not to do it? Decent moves?

    Sorry for the long post.

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No reason not to and moves look solid

  20. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    fleck to

    A) barnes/perez (have vardy)
    B) mount
    C) djenepo/armstrong (have ings)
    D) sa.maximin

    1. Can’t beat em so&hell…
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A if you can get it right...

      D if you’re chasing...

    2. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A, Barnes

  21. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ryan (buton)
    Soy boly taa lascels (lund)
    Traore mane salah (fleck kdb)
    Dcl vardy ings

    which?

    A) dcl to jimi
    B) fleck to barnes/perez/mount (cant get jimi, get jota later)
    C) lund to c.taylor/bardslwy (gw29 lund to egan/basham)
    D) roll ft

    1. Can’t beat em so&hell…
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B for me

      1. Nightf0x
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        To whom

  22. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Kdb for the next Ballon D’or?

  23. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Are people really selling Kdb or is it just bravado before a Friday climbdown?

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I’m keeping for now

  24. ludaslol
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A) Play Williams as 11th player and hope he starts
    b) Taylor -4 (also good if I decide to save FH for dgw)

  25. Mr.SHaMBLes
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Good evening people! I'm on my wildcard. Votes for A or B please?

    A) Mane, Maddison, Jiminez, Traore (or other up to 5.9)

    B)Salah, Fernandes, Jota, Tielemans/Barnes,

    1. ludaslol
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Probably B with Barnes

    3. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

      1. Mr.SHaMBLes
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks all 🙂

    4. MOTHRA
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Mane Bruno Jiménez + another? Cantwell?..

    5. nolard
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'd get Salah and Jimenez and more.

  26. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    What would you do with this?

    1FT 0.4ITB
    McCarthy (Button)
    TAA Rico Tanganga (Stevens) (Lundstram)
    Mane Salah Traore Hayden (KDB)
    Vardy Jimenez Ings

    I plan on doing Tanganga to C.Taylor with my FT. Do you think I should do a second one for a hit or just play Hayden who hasn't started the last two?

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Do your transfer and play Hayden

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        What would the hit be if you took one?

    2. nolard
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Lunds to Boly

  27. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Any moves required? Can field 11 but not the best- 1FT 0.0itb

    Guiata
    Taa soy taylor
    Salah mane Traore dendo
    Vardy jimi ings

    Button Cathcart(vs pool) kdb Egan

    1. Albrightondknight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      It should be good enough, if a double gets announced 2 ft next week would be nice.

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        True, haven’t really thought about that!

  28. Albrightondknight
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    All 11 play away !!!!
    No need for a hit for a bench player I think, but Traore and or Barnes might not start, but I think any hit would be to lose Targett.
    Gtg?

    McCarthy

    TAA Soy Taylor

    Mane (C) Salah Barnes Traore

    Vardy Jimenez Ings

    McGovern KDB Lundstram Targett.

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Stay as is, good luck

  29. FourLokoLeipzig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I know the majority are going Barnes over Maddison, but it’s hard to know how much of a factor their price is. Who would you go for if they cost the same? I went Tielemans over Madds to save cash earlier in the season, and it cost me 20-30 points within a month!

  30. have you seen cyan
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Deulofeu and Foster pints vs Pools?
    I make it 17, there abouts

    1. have you seen cyan
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      points vs Pool*