Pro Pundits - Simon

What is the best strategy for defending a Fantasy Premier League mini-league lead?

Former FPL winner Simon March provides advice on how to preserve a mini-league lead.


As we enter the final few Gameweeks of the season, much attention is given to how to make up ground on those ahead of us but, for some, the priority will be defending what they already have. If you’re currently lucky enough to be winning your mini-league, your focus may well be on how to stay there, so this article will discuss a few different strategies for defending a lead in FPL.

‘Follow the Follower’

Thoughts on Mourinho's first Spurs match 1

I’ve never been on a yacht, let alone raced one, but I have in my time absorbed a bit of yacht racing strategy and there’s one particular approach which is quite relevant for defending a lead in FPL known as ‘Follow the Follower.’

The basic premise of ‘Follow the Follower’ is that, once in front, the leading yacht in a race replicates the strategy of the yacht behind it, even if that strategy is sub-optimal. The logic is that, by doing whatever the follower does, there’s no strategy that follower can adopt that will allow them to make ground on the leader.

In FPL, this strategy is sometimes referred to as ‘shadowing’ or ‘covering’ and it is essentially the FPL equivalent of ‘parking the bus’. In practice, shadowing involves ensuring that your team resembles your chasing rival’s as much as possible and thus reducing the potential that a differential player or captain might help them to catch you.

You can, of course, extrapolate the principles of shadowing to help defend a general overall league position (e.g. staying in the top 10k) by identifying and owning as many of the highest-owned and most threatening players. Though, it has to be said, it is much more of a mini-league strategy for reasons I’ll go into shortly.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

Shadowing is somewhat derided on FPL forums given its utilitarian and borderline-unsporting nature. However, when you absolutely positively must win your mini-league, it’s a perfectly viable strategy. By reducing the impact of differentials, shadowing will mitigate the only real weapon a chasing rival has. How easy it is to pull off, however, depends on a few factors.

Firstly, it works best when there are only a short number of Gameweeks left and/or when you have a big lead. Shadowing with, say, 10 Gameweeks left will be difficult to achieve and may well result in you inadvertently ceding your lead due to inefficiencies in the strategy. Unless you can perfectly predict your rival’s team and captain, there will be an element of error and, in all likelihood, your moves will usually be one Gameweek behind theirs. Over time, therefore, your rival may well gain ground on you. The art of shadowing, therefore, is often in the timing.

Another issue with shadowing is that it may well involve selecting players who perform worse than the players you would have chosen otherwise. It’s an entirely ‘safety first’ strategy, it’s definitely not one for maximising scores or overall rank.

Finally, shadowing is almost certainly inadvisable in a mini-league scenario if you have several close rivals as it becomes exponentially more difficult to effectively ‘cover’ your opponents the more of them there are. You might know your opponents well enough to make an educated guess as to who the genuine threats are but, even in these circumstances, you are relying on a lot of luck, which rather defeats the point.

Playing it Safe

The biggest advantage of being in front is that you don’t need to take the risks that the people chasing you do. You can, therefore, afford to ‘play it safe’ and pick the players who objectively offer the highest prospect of returns. That means no crazy differentials, solid, reliable captain choices and as few hits as possible. Naturally FPL is not an exact science, but this method does tend to put the odds in your favour which is really all we can ask for. ‘Playing it safe’ is, in my eyes, the FPL-version of ‘hitting them on the break’.

This was largely my strategy after I reached the number 1 spot in 2015. In order to win, I needed to defend my lead for another 14 Gameweeks against, maybe, up to 100,000 other managers with a feasible chance of catching me. With this in mind, shadowing wasn’t an option but I also didn’t care about breaking any scoring records, just winning was more than enough.

‘Playing it safe’ isn’t as easy as it sounds however. Firstly, it relies on there being ‘objectively best’ options each week and it becomes more difficult the more options there are. It also requires a fair amount of discipline to avoid the temptation to try and win it all in one week with a wild punt. This also means that you will likely miss out on the unexpected hauls and you’ll have to cope mentally with other people getting them.

This discipline becomes ever more difficult when you have to cope with the managers chasing you making all sorts of ever more crazy moves to try and catch you (one guy chasing me actually captained Martin Skrtel in one match and he scored… twice!). You can’t avoid this but, at the same time, you are forcing your opponents into taking greater risks which, probability dictates, should pay off less the bigger they are.

Playing Your Own Game

If you ask anybody how to defend a lead in FPL, the most common answer you’ll get is ‘just keep playing your own game’ or, in other words; don’t do anything different, just do whatever you were doing before. This is the more romantic or ‘purist’ approach to defending a lead, I’d say it’s the FPL equivalent of Tiki-Taka; if the plan works, stick to the plan.

There is of course some logic to this; if you’re good enough to be top of your mini-league towards the end of the season then there’s no reason to think that you’re not good enough to stay there. This strategy maintains consistency in your approach, whatever that might be. If you take hits, continue to take hits. If you like picking differentials, keep picking differentials etc…

The problem with this strategy, however, is that it doesn’t account for the likelihood that those chasing you may well change their strategy as they get closer to the end of the season. When you’ve got nothing to lose your approach to risk-taking changes a great deal and, like I said, this can translate into ever-more dramatic punts. By maintaining the ‘play your own game’ strategy, you may not be utilising the advantage that being in the lead offers you and, meanwhile, those chasing you may well be taking advantage of the fact that they have nothing to lose.

Furthermore, much as it might pain us to admit it, luck can take you a long way in FPL but it almost always runs out eventually. Just because a strategy has been working until now doesn’t necessarily mean that it will continue to do so. So, in our own interests, when leading a league, it’s important to be painfully honest with ourselves about exactly how we got there in the first place and whether that approach is sustainable.

Conclusion

Which strategy you should adopt for defending a lead will depend a great deal on your own specific circumstances.

Obviously I’m a believer in doing what you need to do to get in front and then playing it relatively safe once you’re there because that’s the strategy that has worked for me in the past, but every circumstance is different.

While a few potential scenarios have been discussed here and these are hopefully useful as a guide to the pros and cons of using different strategies in such contexts, every manager will ultimately have to decide what method will work best for their specific situation.


Simon March is a member of our Pro Pundits initiative, a team of Fantasy managers here to bring you regular advice and updates on their teams. Simon won the FPL title in 2014/15 and has become a fixture on the punditry circuit ever since.

FPL Lessons Learned From Gameweek 36+

1,940 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Any transfer suggestions here? Feel like FWD options are looking good again with Vardy, Rashford and Jesus but difficult to get the Manchester players in without taking a few hits

    1ft 4itb
    Pope
    TAA Doherty Saiss
    Martial(C) KDB Bruno Sterling Foden
    Ings Jimenez
    Martinez Greenwood Aurier Taylor

    1. HD7
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I think team is G2G mate

  2. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Best striker for the last 2?

    Any price. Just not Ings or United player.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Jesus

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Nice pick why though?

        I was also planning to triple up on city midfielder lol

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Passed the eye test the last 2-3 games and scoring more of the chances he gets

    2. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Wood

    3. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Aubameyang

    4. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Kane

  3. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Vardy to Chris Wood?

    Vardy's next two opponents, United and Spurs, have the 3rd and 2nd best xga since restart.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Vardy looked good tonight and both defences are poor, I would keep

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      No. Vardy's in good form with something to play for and a good record against top teams.

    3. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Keep if you have him, avoid if you dont

  4. Salah’s Sonnet
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Could do with some opinions here, my ONLY aim is to crack under 1m.......yes, it's been that bad, and can't wait for it to end, but i digress.....

    Henderson
    Doherty - Aurier - TAA
    Martial - Sterling - D.Silva - Bruno - Willian
    Giroud - Greenwood
    _______________________________
    Kril: Azpi: Nketiah: Taylor ...............8.1m ITB

    Was thinking something like:

    Giroud + Willian + Aurier ----->> Jesus + Salah + Pieters? (-8)

    Need to go for it in an otherwise complete unknown for me this season.

    Opinions welcome guys, thanks.

    1. JJeyy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Giroud to Wood for me.

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        that alone wouldn't cut it i'm afraid, and don't like Burnley much, don't exactly score bucketloads, plus think Norwich won't be a walkover like we've thought since they got relegated.

        1. JJeyy
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Ok, but i'm 100% sure the move will score more than your -8 proposed. Anecdotal thoughts aside Norwich are awful statistically.

          1. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Surely Jesus and Salah would score more than Donkey and Willian though?
            Oh no doubt Norwich are woeful haha, i just need to go for it with some bigger players, can't stand it if i finished above 1m.

            1. JJeyy
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              yes but you have to factor in the -8 and compare that to the free move. The wood move would be up imo

              1. Salah’s Sonnet
                • 12 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                i guess so bud, i get ya 🙂

    2. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Giroud + Willian + Azpi --> Jesus + Salah + Tarkowski

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        That's exactly the other moves i was thinking haha!

    3. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Nketiah to Kane or Vardy. You're not gonna get your rank lower by starting GW37 at 8 points down. That's a good side. Pool defence was appalling v Arsenal. If they don't get the finger out Chelsea will do damage to them again. Salah played like a man with a sharp brain that was disconnected to his shooting boots, trying too hard, off the pace. Mane much sharper.

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers Greennred, if nketiah to Kane/Vardy/Auba and the likes, who makes way for bench? Willian?

        1. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Probably, though if Pool defence got the kick in the ar$e it deserves there's slim pickings for him and William. They looked so lethargic though and Chelsea are looking a more motivated fitter team than them.

          1. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Him and Giroud

  5. milanista10
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Tanganga will play RB if Aurier doesn’t return?

  6. Bobby Digital
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Two games away from not taking a hit all season. Unprecedented.

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Happy with your OR?

      1. Bobby Digital
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Yes

    2. Jayv807
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I'm on 21 hits, a record low for me though!

      1. Bobby Digital
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        84pts 😮

    3. HD7
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      discipline

  7. sandman58
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Averaging 16 points in last 3 home games...Surely Martial is the top pick for Capitano????

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Yuno it 😉

      1. sandman58
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        48 points in last 3 home games...Wow...

        1. Rainer
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Due a blank?

          1. sandman58
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Not at home to West Ham
            United have to win
            They'll score goals and Martial will be involved

            1. Scholes Out For Summer
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              I really want him...

              Is he worth a -4? I have AWB...

              1. FPL_Crisis
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                See below same dilemma. Trying to crack top10k so think I’ll do it

              2. sandman58
                • 5 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                I think so...but depends who else u have

  8. I Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Best defender for this GW only? Doherty?

    Can't be from City or United as I'm already tripled up.

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Tark

      1. Bleh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        This

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Jonny for a differential.

  9. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    After a horrible start recovered to manage 39, only dropped 8k!

    So play safe or go for it with -8

    Already removed Aurier to Stevens - red wine last night?

    Moves considered, Ederson, Greenwood & Salah > Pope, Rashford & Mahrez?

    Current ream.

    Ederson
    Digne, Stevens, Boly,
    Salah, Kdb, Fernandes, C Sterling, Martial,
    Ings, Vardy

    Button, Greenwood, Lamptey. Taylor

    .3

    1FT

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Save FT, go for it in 38

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Yes, good idea best to log out, scotch is blurring my decisions 🙂

  10. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Triple Wolves defence vs Palace too risky?

    1. Eddie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      They'll only go and concede in the 90th minute, again.

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Remember the great Triple Blades defence restart coup?

  11. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Need Cresswell and Antonio to do something 2moz.

  12. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Worth holding Digne or get rid?

  13. Bruno Bruno!!
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Have my BB and TC left to use in the final 2 GW's of the season. Planning to use my BB this GW and possibly TC a city asset as home in 38 against Norwich.

    However my bench is looking a bit dire at the moment so Im planning to take a -12.

    Giroud + Aurier* + Azpilicueta + Taylor* -> Wood + Doherty + Pieters + Dunk (-12)

    Leaves me with:

    Pope
    TAA Pieters Doherty
    Sterling Martial Fernandes Foden Salah
    Greenwood Wood

    Martinez Ings Dunk Boly

    Thoughts please

    1. Dušan Citizen
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      sounds good

      1. Bruno Bruno!!
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        would you go a bournemouth attacker maybe Solanke over wood ?

  14. elchilangles
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    thoughts on this FH team?

    Pope, Martinez
    Doherty, Tark, Dunk, Basham, tanganga
    Salah, Sterling, KDB, Martial, Fernandes
    Wood, Jimenez, Ings

  15. YoungPretender
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Do we think Nketiah gets a start against Villa?

    1. Drexl Spivey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah. Arteta thought the sending off was harsh. Arsenal felt the ban was injust. He'll play, he's rested, and he'll have a point to prove.

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        wasn't exactly setting the stage alight when he started for arsenal though was he

  16. BNMC
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Man every time I go against the grain I end up getting punished by the same players and it's frustrating...

    Willian to Martial my most likely move. G2G?

    Pope
    TAA Doh Digne
    Sterling Dilva Bruno Martial
    Vardy Ings Greenwood
    Pulisic 1st sub

  17. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Lads, I'd really appreciate your thoughts. Here's my team as it is:

    Patricio (CRY)
    TAA (CHE), Aurier (LEI), Doherty (CRY)
    Salah (CHE), KDB (wat), Bruno (WHU), Pulisic (liv)
    Jiménez (CRY), Ings (bou), Greenwood (WHU)

    Is Antonio, Doherty - Martial, Tarkowski worth a - 4?
    Should I just go as it is?
    Free hit?

  18. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Sterling and dsilva to start for gw37?

    1. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Difficult to tell, I’d say both have a good chance though.

  19. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Sanity check.... is this nuts?

    Doherty, Pulisic > Tarko, Martial (-4)

    Obviously could be massively awful but at the same time could see both as an upgrade this week based on fixtures and form. Exact cash to do it and have this:

    Pope
    TAA, Tarko, Kiko (lol)
    Salah, Sterling, Dilva, Bruno, Martial
    Vardy, Ings
    (Martin) (Greenwood, Simpson, Lascelles)

    1. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Nope, did similar moves myself. Brought Tark and Martial in for Taylor and Foden.

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks. Issue is Doherty is clearly worse to lose than a dead Taylor and Pulisic vs Foden....

        1. Bleh
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Fair point, though Wolves haven’t been great defensively recently albeit with Doherty’s ability to get forward. Their GW38 fixture away at Chelsea doesn’t appeal at all.

          Pulisic is an obvious danger against any team but I can’t see him hauling against Pool (maybe 1 goal or assist at most). I think it’s worth the punt.

          1. Don Kloppeone
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Cheers mate.

            I’ve got FH for GW38+ so this is just for this week!

    2. PapaWengzz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Doherty had his rest and is due a huge one. but dohertys huge haul is the same as what martial gets every home game. Tricky one indeed, go with gut.

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks mate. Will have a think!

  20. AzzaroMax99
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Opinions on these two moves for the last two gw?

    Vardy+Willian to Wood+Sterling

    1. 20 Timess
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Great moves

    2. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Wouldn’t be getting rid of Vardy. Tough fixtures on paper but Leicester need him badly and he’s playing two quite weak defences. Definitely think about it.

      1. AzzaroMax99
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Defenses of Spurs and Man Utd are not weak. Actually it is Sterling that I want, but also can see Wood making an impact vs Norwich and Brighton, he is also on pens. I would keep Vardy but then one of KDB, Bruno or Martial must go.

  21. 20 Timess
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Who is the best striker to go with for the remaining two games?

    1. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Rashford

    2. PapaWengzz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Rash and Jesus

  22. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Free Hit already a success.

    Would have been ~38 all out.

    On a MASSIVE 46 with Antonio to play 😎

    1. BNMC
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I'm on 47 here and that's a small red...

  23. Dušan Citizen
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Better option?

    A) Antonio to Stanislas for free
    or
    B) Antonio to Martial (C) and Greenwood to Wood/King for -4

    I see Bou attackers as best differential for next gw, do you agree?

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Not when you're selling g a player in good form to get one.

      1. Dušan Citizen
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        But he is against United, would bench him otherwise

  24. Slitherene
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Which option should my last hit, be based on?

    A) VvD + Martial
    B) AWB + Son/Jimenez/Wood

    FH in GW 38

  25. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Fpl statistics reliable for price changes?

    1. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      too early in the season to tell mate 🙂

  26. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Based on the news we heard regarding Aurier leaving to visit France.... safe to assume definitely he wont be back for GW37 fixture?

  27. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Can I save here ?

    McCarthy
    TAA Boly Fernandez
    Salah Sterling Bruno Martial Pulisic
    Ings Greenwood

    Fabianski Giroud Alonso Lascelles

  28. PapaWengzz
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Rashford could be the differential captain pick this week

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I'm (c) Sterling, not many have him in my ml

      1. PapaWengzz
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        I actually wouldnt, he was rested for the cup and could play 90-120 mins, Arsenal looking good and it could be tough game.

  29. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Would you start Nketiah benching Willian this week to roll 2FT for gw38 or move Willian to someone for the next 2...if so I have 8.4m to spend, exact money for martial but would involve a hit to remove AWB...hmm

    Pope
    AWB Digne Boly
    Salah kdb Bruno Dilva Willian
    Jesus Rashford

    1. BNMC
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Go for it. AWB to Tark?

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Yep that works, cheers

    2. PapaWengzz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I am doing this, could backfire majorly but YOLO

      1. PapaWengzz
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        The fact that Willian is on penalties is the only thing to consider here.

      2. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        As I’m benching him or moving him out?
        Preferably I’d wait for Klopp news to see if he rotates if not I don’t see too many goals at Anfield
        Would be handy having 2 freebies in 38

        1. PapaWengzz
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          benching him and starting Nketiah i meant

    3. Garam MOSALAH
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Same situation
      But have 1 FT for Aurier
      Thinking of Willian over Nketiah

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        GL
        I can handle the price rise from tark so if martial not rising today then I’ll probably wait a day

  30. mr messi
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Greenwood to Ings or Jesus for last 2 games?

    1. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Ings this week, Jesus in 38?