Pro Pundits - Simon

What is the best strategy for defending a Fantasy Premier League mini-league lead?

Former FPL winner Simon March provides advice on how to preserve a mini-league lead.


As we enter the final few Gameweeks of the season, much attention is given to how to make up ground on those ahead of us but, for some, the priority will be defending what they already have. If you’re currently lucky enough to be winning your mini-league, your focus may well be on how to stay there, so this article will discuss a few different strategies for defending a lead in FPL.

‘Follow the Follower’

Thoughts on Mourinho's first Spurs match 1

I’ve never been on a yacht, let alone raced one, but I have in my time absorbed a bit of yacht racing strategy and there’s one particular approach which is quite relevant for defending a lead in FPL known as ‘Follow the Follower.’

The basic premise of ‘Follow the Follower’ is that, once in front, the leading yacht in a race replicates the strategy of the yacht behind it, even if that strategy is sub-optimal. The logic is that, by doing whatever the follower does, there’s no strategy that follower can adopt that will allow them to make ground on the leader.

In FPL, this strategy is sometimes referred to as ‘shadowing’ or ‘covering’ and it is essentially the FPL equivalent of ‘parking the bus’. In practice, shadowing involves ensuring that your team resembles your chasing rival’s as much as possible and thus reducing the potential that a differential player or captain might help them to catch you.

You can, of course, extrapolate the principles of shadowing to help defend a general overall league position (e.g. staying in the top 10k) by identifying and owning as many of the highest-owned and most threatening players. Though, it has to be said, it is much more of a mini-league strategy for reasons I’ll go into shortly.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

Shadowing is somewhat derided on FPL forums given its utilitarian and borderline-unsporting nature. However, when you absolutely positively must win your mini-league, it’s a perfectly viable strategy. By reducing the impact of differentials, shadowing will mitigate the only real weapon a chasing rival has. How easy it is to pull off, however, depends on a few factors.

Firstly, it works best when there are only a short number of Gameweeks left and/or when you have a big lead. Shadowing with, say, 10 Gameweeks left will be difficult to achieve and may well result in you inadvertently ceding your lead due to inefficiencies in the strategy. Unless you can perfectly predict your rival’s team and captain, there will be an element of error and, in all likelihood, your moves will usually be one Gameweek behind theirs. Over time, therefore, your rival may well gain ground on you. The art of shadowing, therefore, is often in the timing.

Another issue with shadowing is that it may well involve selecting players who perform worse than the players you would have chosen otherwise. It’s an entirely ‘safety first’ strategy, it’s definitely not one for maximising scores or overall rank.

Finally, shadowing is almost certainly inadvisable in a mini-league scenario if you have several close rivals as it becomes exponentially more difficult to effectively ‘cover’ your opponents the more of them there are. You might know your opponents well enough to make an educated guess as to who the genuine threats are but, even in these circumstances, you are relying on a lot of luck, which rather defeats the point.

Playing it Safe

The biggest advantage of being in front is that you don’t need to take the risks that the people chasing you do. You can, therefore, afford to ‘play it safe’ and pick the players who objectively offer the highest prospect of returns. That means no crazy differentials, solid, reliable captain choices and as few hits as possible. Naturally FPL is not an exact science, but this method does tend to put the odds in your favour which is really all we can ask for. ‘Playing it safe’ is, in my eyes, the FPL-version of ‘hitting them on the break’.

This was largely my strategy after I reached the number 1 spot in 2015. In order to win, I needed to defend my lead for another 14 Gameweeks against, maybe, up to 100,000 other managers with a feasible chance of catching me. With this in mind, shadowing wasn’t an option but I also didn’t care about breaking any scoring records, just winning was more than enough.

‘Playing it safe’ isn’t as easy as it sounds however. Firstly, it relies on there being ‘objectively best’ options each week and it becomes more difficult the more options there are. It also requires a fair amount of discipline to avoid the temptation to try and win it all in one week with a wild punt. This also means that you will likely miss out on the unexpected hauls and you’ll have to cope mentally with other people getting them.

This discipline becomes ever more difficult when you have to cope with the managers chasing you making all sorts of ever more crazy moves to try and catch you (one guy chasing me actually captained Martin Skrtel in one match and he scored… twice!). You can’t avoid this but, at the same time, you are forcing your opponents into taking greater risks which, probability dictates, should pay off less the bigger they are.

Playing Your Own Game

If you ask anybody how to defend a lead in FPL, the most common answer you’ll get is ‘just keep playing your own game’ or, in other words; don’t do anything different, just do whatever you were doing before. This is the more romantic or ‘purist’ approach to defending a lead, I’d say it’s the FPL equivalent of Tiki-Taka; if the plan works, stick to the plan.

There is of course some logic to this; if you’re good enough to be top of your mini-league towards the end of the season then there’s no reason to think that you’re not good enough to stay there. This strategy maintains consistency in your approach, whatever that might be. If you take hits, continue to take hits. If you like picking differentials, keep picking differentials etc…

The problem with this strategy, however, is that it doesn’t account for the likelihood that those chasing you may well change their strategy as they get closer to the end of the season. When you’ve got nothing to lose your approach to risk-taking changes a great deal and, like I said, this can translate into ever-more dramatic punts. By maintaining the ‘play your own game’ strategy, you may not be utilising the advantage that being in the lead offers you and, meanwhile, those chasing you may well be taking advantage of the fact that they have nothing to lose.

Furthermore, much as it might pain us to admit it, luck can take you a long way in FPL but it almost always runs out eventually. Just because a strategy has been working until now doesn’t necessarily mean that it will continue to do so. So, in our own interests, when leading a league, it’s important to be painfully honest with ourselves about exactly how we got there in the first place and whether that approach is sustainable.

Conclusion

Which strategy you should adopt for defending a lead will depend a great deal on your own specific circumstances.

Obviously I’m a believer in doing what you need to do to get in front and then playing it relatively safe once you’re there because that’s the strategy that has worked for me in the past, but every circumstance is different.

While a few potential scenarios have been discussed here and these are hopefully useful as a guide to the pros and cons of using different strategies in such contexts, every manager will ultimately have to decide what method will work best for their specific situation.


Simon March is a member of our Pro Pundits initiative, a team of Fantasy managers here to bring you regular advice and updates on their teams. Simon won the FPL title in 2014/15 and has become a fixture on the punditry circuit ever since.

FPL Lessons Learned From Gameweek 36+

1,940 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Greek Freak
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    I decided there's no point me getting Tarkowski to replace Lascelles. I don't have Pope or another Burnley defender so I'll still end up hoping they concede, a bit like I hope Wolves concede even though I have Doherty.

  2. Postman Ty
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    FH:
    DDG (8)
    Azpi (9) - Alonso (7) - AWB (5)
    DSilva (13) - Fernandes (6) - Pulisic (6) - Sterling (2) - Antonio (tbd)
    Jesus (8) - Vardy (5)
    = 69 + Antonio

    Original:
    DDG (8)
    TAA (0) - Dohery (4) - Aurier (1)
    Son (8) - Martial (8) - Fernandes (6) - Mahrez (1) - KDB (0)
    Jimenez (9) - Vardy (5)
    = 50

    19+ point gain, not bad. Sort of annoying how may returns there were in my normal team but honestly just happy I didn't get fewer with the FH.

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Need to add an autosub.

      1. Postman Ty
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Would have been Saiss 2 points subbed on, no idea for FT because I had this planned for a few weeks.

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      And your planned FT

  3. Phil's Stamps
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Money no problem, who would you want for this GW before FH38?

    A) Wood
    B) Ings

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Ings.

    2. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Think I'd go Ings personally

    3. Phil's Stamps
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Thanks

    4. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B all day

  4. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    I will be FH'ing in GW38 and I have 1 free transfer and 2.8m ITB. Any suggestions for a one week punt or should I just do Mane > Salah?

    Pope
    TAA Doherty Boly
    Mane KDB Bruno (M)artial
    Jimenez Ings Greenwood

    Button Ward Holgate Guendouzi

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Could be flipped but Mane looked good v Arsenal and Salah looked like he couldn't finish his dinner so I wouldn't swap them. Not sure De Bruyne will get much gametime. Sell him for Son or Pulisic/William V a Pool defence that's lost it's edge.

  5. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Nobody with the price changes tonight?

  6. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    i wish this article applied to me

  7. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Price Changes - 17th July 2020

    Rises : Stevens (5.2), Tarkowski (5.4), D Silva (7.4)

    Falls : Doucouré (5.4), De Bruyne (10.7)

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Thanks TM

    2. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      thanks sir

    3. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers TM.

    4. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers TM

      3-1. Now come on KDB

  8. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    %. Probability of Aurier returning for GW37? He left there for Thursday and the game is on Sunday

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      id say 10%, family time

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      50 but I've no clue. That he played v Newcastle shows how committed he is.

  9. AF90
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    What are people doing with Pulisic? Tempted to sell for Son or Silva but think he is playing too well to justify selling....

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Bench and playing 38

    2. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I’d keep, and its very possible that Dilva wont play in 37. He will definitely play in 38 though.

    3. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Might sell for Martial. Have Dilva so it's a bit tricky.

    4. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Keeping. Pool defence needs to improve but Chelsea will make hay against them if they're as poor as Arsenal game.

  10. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Either BB next GW or in 38.
    Anything standing out here?
    Holgate out is the priority with the BB I think although bigger issues to fix.

    Pope.
    TAA, Saiss, AWB.
    Pulisic, Sterling, KDB, Mahrez, Fernandes.
    Vardy, Greenwood.
    Martinez, Azpi, Holgate, Nketiah.
    2ft's, 2.2m ITB.

    Vardy -> Auba/Ings/Wood is one idea.

    1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I’d rather have Auba for 38, but the only think you really need to fix is Holgate. Otherwise you are set up really well for a BB. Wish I had that team.

  11. Simon69
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Giroud > Wood + Pulisic > Adama for - 4? Little bit punty but I'm about 40 points off ML leader. Like Adama punt with PVA and Cahill sidelined.

    1. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Not too sure if Adama will start so it's a no from me

  12. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Early thoughts on this lot?

    Pope, McCarthy
    TAA, Alonso, Doherty, Egan, Taylor
    David Silva, Sterling, Foden, Fernandes, Pulisic
    Rashford, Jiménez, Ings

    1 FT, 1.6 in bank.

    Who to get and bench?

    Cheers.

    1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      This is a great team, obviously. Do you think Silva will play in 37?

      Pulisic -> Martial might be good for 37.

      Cheers TM

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Dilva is tricky, need to see if he is a FA Cup starter normally & if likely to.
        I left money for that transfer but Pool struggling makes it interesting.

    2. Scratch
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Alonso to Tark or Pulisic to Martial I suppose

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        But both these are good for 38?

        1. Scratch
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          I'd say so

          1. Dynamic Duos
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            I mean Alonso and Pulisic both good for 38

    3. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Son for Sterling.

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Very unlikely.

    4. AF90
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Bench McCarthy, Alonso, Taylor, Foden & possibly save FT to attack last GW?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Think Foden starts so doubt I'll bench him. Taylor injured is annoying. Somehow don't think I'll be saving, more chance of a hit.

    5. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers all.

    6. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Pulisic to Martial seems the most obvious move. You've got a real benching headache but I'd bench Taylor, Foden and maybe Alonso.

      1. panda07
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        If Watford win today and are safe then maybe play Foden though

    7. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Very solid on paper.
      Not sure you’ll get the returns from both Trent and Alonso but with 2 games left hard to take hits for defenders
      In saying that Alonso to Tark gives you 2m for gw38

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Foden probably goes in 38 if team can be improved.

    8. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Puli to Tony or save

    9. seewhyaxe
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Any early inclination of your captain?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Some random with low %.

    10. SDC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      That's a very balanced team! Since Manu play Whu home and majority will have 3 Manu players it might be best to take a Manu player. Martial would be a good pick, but considering your midfield 5 is strong, you can alternatively transfer in a Manu def.

  13. klopp2567
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    FH points 70 scored thanks to Dsilva captain
    thanks to all who helped me with the captain choices.Appreciated.

  14. seewhyaxe
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Seems like you can get Martial pretty easily, maybe that could work.

  15. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    A) Auba Dilva

    B) Jesus Martial

    1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      For GW 37 I like B. For GW 38, I like A.

      1. davies
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        A would be Auba this week and Dilva next week

        B would be Martial this week and Jesus next week

    2. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B

  16. Chelsea91
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Play Aurier or TAA?

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      TAA

      1. Chelsea91
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        thanks

  17. AF90
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Really can't decide what to do....2 FT's & 1.9 itb.

    Pope,
    TAA, Aurier, Boly
    KDB, Bruno, Martial, Pulisic, Foden
    Rashford, Vardy

    Martin, Azpi, Holgate, Nketiah

  18. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Burnley CS almost set in stone?

  19. Scratch
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    My City prediction

    KDB Rodri Gundogan midfield on the weekend. Laporte & Fernandinho at cb, though Pep may shelf Fernandinho and opt for pace instead.
    Dilva and Bilva to replace Gundogan and Rodri, KDB full match.

    Foden, Sterling, Bilva for starts against Watford in a pretty similar team to Bournemouth. Dilva for 20 minutes+ then starts GW38

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I think Laporte Garcia
      Gündogan Rodri KDB
      Mahrez Jesus Sterling

      Silva is the joker off the bench, can slot in anywhere needed.

      I think he will need to counter Arsenals speed on the flanks by controlling the middle of the pitch and may sacrifice a bit going forward

  20. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Alonso to start v Liverpool?

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I’d expect so yes

    2. Bring back Rafa
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Probably and I can see Salah causing him some problems

  21. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Best move here? FHing 38.

    A) Pulisic -> Dilva
    B) Giroud -> Wood
    C) Alonso -> Laporte/VVD/Digne (bench Giroud)
    D) Pulisic & Giroud -> Mahrez & Maupay/JRod (-4)

    DDG
    Doherty, Trent, Mendy, Saiss
    Sterling, Martial, Bruno, Pulisic
    Jimenez, Giroud

    Martin, Alonso, Nketiah, Guendouzi
    Bank 0.5m, 1FT

    1. Scratch
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Mendy unlikely to start?

      I'd be tempted to do Pulisic -> Foden and play Nketiah ahead of Mendy.
      Or just Mendy -> Cancelo.
      Giroud -> Wood / Ings also good

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B for me don’t like OGs matchup

  22. Doolittle
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    What to do here? 2 FTs, 0.8 ITB. FH next week so only have to worry about this week.

    Foster to Pope looks like one obvious move.

    Foster
    TAA/Doherty/Maguire
    KDB/Salah/Fernandes/Foden/Pulisic
    Ings/Greenwood

    Martin/Vardy/Ward/Lascelles

    By no means set on benching Vardy.

  23. Silva’s Left Nut
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Predictions for Whu-Wat?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      1-1

      1. Phil's Stamps
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Anything but a draw please (concerned Villa fan).

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Sorry mate, hope it goes your way

          1. Phil's Stamps
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Cheers, have got everything crossed, but I don't think we deserve to stay up.

            1. The Suspended One
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              They are both going to play with then handbrake and 0-0

        2. Riverside Red
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          And I thought you were Boro fan ..using 'who let the dogs out' Stamp as your id

  24. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Poor for BB?

    Fabianski Wood Alonso Dunk

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Seen worse

  25. Phil's Stamps
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Start Dilva or Foden?

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Dilva for me but both

      1. Phil's Stamps
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Bit of a headache here:

        DDG
        TAA Doherty Saiss
        Salah KDB Bruno ?
        Rash Jimi Ings

        Dilva Foden Kiko Taylor

    2. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Depends on FA cup I guess.

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Won’t know that Saturday am

        1. Aubamewho
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Yeah, my bad.

  26. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Any suggestions for this team? 1ft, 0.5m itb. All chips used. Don’t mind taking a hit for some fun.

    Schmeichel
    Taa Doherty Aurier
    Salah kdb Bruno Mahrez
    Rashford Jimmy greenwood

    Martin Foden Taylor Ngakia

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Maybe Aurier/Tark

      Otherwise TAA/Greenwood Ings / Tark

  27. The Suspended One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    1.9 1FT

    Pope
    TAA Aurier Alonso (Holgate/Simpson)
    Martial Silva Bruno Pulisic (Davis)
    Rashford Vardy Kane

    Was all set to go Kane -> Auba but no Wolves is a bit scary...

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I like the Aubameyang pick, you thinking Jiminez?

    2. Phil's Stamps
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Vardy to Jimi would be the move for me.

    3. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Maybe.. more worried about the CS..

      What about Ings and KdB for Vardy and Pulisic (-4)

      FH next week

      1. Phil's Stamps
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        If you've got your FH to come I wouldn't be taking hits now, especially for a City player who might be benched.

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Good point; doubt kdb gets rested again tho, still highly owned enough to kill me

  28. Gretzky87
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    A. Mahrez + Ings OR B. Sterling + Maupay
    A or B? I know it's a toss up as to who plays but best guesses.

    1. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B imo. I have Mahrez and I'm not confident enough to keep him.

  29. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Burnley CS almost guaranteed?