Pro Pundits - Simon

What is the best strategy for defending a Fantasy Premier League mini-league lead?

Former FPL winner Simon March provides advice on how to preserve a mini-league lead.


As we enter the final few Gameweeks of the season, much attention is given to how to make up ground on those ahead of us but, for some, the priority will be defending what they already have. If you’re currently lucky enough to be winning your mini-league, your focus may well be on how to stay there, so this article will discuss a few different strategies for defending a lead in FPL.

‘Follow the Follower’

Thoughts on Mourinho's first Spurs match 1

I’ve never been on a yacht, let alone raced one, but I have in my time absorbed a bit of yacht racing strategy and there’s one particular approach which is quite relevant for defending a lead in FPL known as ‘Follow the Follower.’

The basic premise of ‘Follow the Follower’ is that, once in front, the leading yacht in a race replicates the strategy of the yacht behind it, even if that strategy is sub-optimal. The logic is that, by doing whatever the follower does, there’s no strategy that follower can adopt that will allow them to make ground on the leader.

In FPL, this strategy is sometimes referred to as ‘shadowing’ or ‘covering’ and it is essentially the FPL equivalent of ‘parking the bus’. In practice, shadowing involves ensuring that your team resembles your chasing rival’s as much as possible and thus reducing the potential that a differential player or captain might help them to catch you.

You can, of course, extrapolate the principles of shadowing to help defend a general overall league position (e.g. staying in the top 10k) by identifying and owning as many of the highest-owned and most threatening players. Though, it has to be said, it is much more of a mini-league strategy for reasons I’ll go into shortly.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

Shadowing is somewhat derided on FPL forums given its utilitarian and borderline-unsporting nature. However, when you absolutely positively must win your mini-league, it’s a perfectly viable strategy. By reducing the impact of differentials, shadowing will mitigate the only real weapon a chasing rival has. How easy it is to pull off, however, depends on a few factors.

Firstly, it works best when there are only a short number of Gameweeks left and/or when you have a big lead. Shadowing with, say, 10 Gameweeks left will be difficult to achieve and may well result in you inadvertently ceding your lead due to inefficiencies in the strategy. Unless you can perfectly predict your rival’s team and captain, there will be an element of error and, in all likelihood, your moves will usually be one Gameweek behind theirs. Over time, therefore, your rival may well gain ground on you. The art of shadowing, therefore, is often in the timing.

Another issue with shadowing is that it may well involve selecting players who perform worse than the players you would have chosen otherwise. It’s an entirely ‘safety first’ strategy, it’s definitely not one for maximising scores or overall rank.

Finally, shadowing is almost certainly inadvisable in a mini-league scenario if you have several close rivals as it becomes exponentially more difficult to effectively ‘cover’ your opponents the more of them there are. You might know your opponents well enough to make an educated guess as to who the genuine threats are but, even in these circumstances, you are relying on a lot of luck, which rather defeats the point.

Playing it Safe

The biggest advantage of being in front is that you don’t need to take the risks that the people chasing you do. You can, therefore, afford to ‘play it safe’ and pick the players who objectively offer the highest prospect of returns. That means no crazy differentials, solid, reliable captain choices and as few hits as possible. Naturally FPL is not an exact science, but this method does tend to put the odds in your favour which is really all we can ask for. ‘Playing it safe’ is, in my eyes, the FPL-version of ‘hitting them on the break’.

This was largely my strategy after I reached the number 1 spot in 2015. In order to win, I needed to defend my lead for another 14 Gameweeks against, maybe, up to 100,000 other managers with a feasible chance of catching me. With this in mind, shadowing wasn’t an option but I also didn’t care about breaking any scoring records, just winning was more than enough.

‘Playing it safe’ isn’t as easy as it sounds however. Firstly, it relies on there being ‘objectively best’ options each week and it becomes more difficult the more options there are. It also requires a fair amount of discipline to avoid the temptation to try and win it all in one week with a wild punt. This also means that you will likely miss out on the unexpected hauls and you’ll have to cope mentally with other people getting them.

This discipline becomes ever more difficult when you have to cope with the managers chasing you making all sorts of ever more crazy moves to try and catch you (one guy chasing me actually captained Martin Skrtel in one match and he scored… twice!). You can’t avoid this but, at the same time, you are forcing your opponents into taking greater risks which, probability dictates, should pay off less the bigger they are.

Playing Your Own Game

If you ask anybody how to defend a lead in FPL, the most common answer you’ll get is ‘just keep playing your own game’ or, in other words; don’t do anything different, just do whatever you were doing before. This is the more romantic or ‘purist’ approach to defending a lead, I’d say it’s the FPL equivalent of Tiki-Taka; if the plan works, stick to the plan.

There is of course some logic to this; if you’re good enough to be top of your mini-league towards the end of the season then there’s no reason to think that you’re not good enough to stay there. This strategy maintains consistency in your approach, whatever that might be. If you take hits, continue to take hits. If you like picking differentials, keep picking differentials etc…

The problem with this strategy, however, is that it doesn’t account for the likelihood that those chasing you may well change their strategy as they get closer to the end of the season. When you’ve got nothing to lose your approach to risk-taking changes a great deal and, like I said, this can translate into ever-more dramatic punts. By maintaining the ‘play your own game’ strategy, you may not be utilising the advantage that being in the lead offers you and, meanwhile, those chasing you may well be taking advantage of the fact that they have nothing to lose.

Furthermore, much as it might pain us to admit it, luck can take you a long way in FPL but it almost always runs out eventually. Just because a strategy has been working until now doesn’t necessarily mean that it will continue to do so. So, in our own interests, when leading a league, it’s important to be painfully honest with ourselves about exactly how we got there in the first place and whether that approach is sustainable.

Conclusion

Which strategy you should adopt for defending a lead will depend a great deal on your own specific circumstances.

Obviously I’m a believer in doing what you need to do to get in front and then playing it relatively safe once you’re there because that’s the strategy that has worked for me in the past, but every circumstance is different.

While a few potential scenarios have been discussed here and these are hopefully useful as a guide to the pros and cons of using different strategies in such contexts, every manager will ultimately have to decide what method will work best for their specific situation.


Simon March is a member of our Pro Pundits initiative, a team of Fantasy managers here to bring you regular advice and updates on their teams. Simon won the FPL title in 2014/15 and has become a fixture on the punditry circuit ever since.

FPL Lessons Learned From Gameweek 36+

1,940 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Jota or Wood?

    1. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Mahrez + Lascelles > Martial + Pieters?

      Pope
      VVD Egan Garcia
      KDB Salah Bruno Mahrez
      Auba Vardy Greenwood
      (Button, Lascelles, Hayden, JackRob)

      0.9 itb, 2FT

      1. Aubamewho
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Sorry for that.

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Haha no worries. Looks good

          1. Aubamewho
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Cheers

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Would say Wood but Jota could also do the job. Maybe Wood because of the fixtures.

    3. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Wood but Ings

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Got Ings

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Wood works

  2. iL PiStOlErO
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    What to do here? Use ft or keep and have two for final week?

    Pope
    TAA Doherty Kiko
    Salah KdB Bruno Pulisic
    Rash Vardy Greenwood

    3.9 Fernandez Holgate Guendouzi

    1ft, 0.2itb

    P.S. Looking at Ings, Auba and another city. Still have TC left (plan to play it in gw38).

  3. Aubamewho
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Mahrez + Lascelles > Martial + Pieters?

    Pope
    VVD Egan Garcia
    KDB Salah Bruno Mahrez
    Auba Vardy Greenwood
    (Button, Lascelles, Hayden, JackRob)

    0.9 itb, 2FT

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Decent; have to consider selling Vardy

      1. Aubamewho
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Noted, thanks

  4. E25
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Got FH for 38 so what to do this week? Taking Martial out recently is hurting me but I think I have to suck it up for one more week without him.
    Can upgrade any of the front 3 to Ings, and will likely cap him as am chasing in ML.
    Who to upgrade to Ings?
    A) Vardy
    B) Nketiah
    C) Greenwood

    Martinez
    TAA Doherty Magure
    KDB Dilva Mahrez Fernandes
    Vardy Greenwood Nketiah

    Martin Willian Saiss Robinson
    1FT 5.7ITB

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Nketiah

  5. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Thanks all. This will be my BB 37 then.

    McCarthy
    TAA Boly Fernandez
    Salah Sterling(c) Bruno Martial Pulisic
    Greenwood Ings

    Fabianski Wood Alonso Dunk

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Are you sure about sterling captain?

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Good shout to play as false nine when Jesus is rested

      2. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah 37 and 38

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Could be a good rank climb on a rotational week

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers mate, fingers crossed

    3. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Very nice. Goodluck.

  6. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Guys, sell dcl for jesus or jimmy?

    Alr got dsilva and ster

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Can’t go wrong with either just depends what you’ll do with the extra cash
      Jimmy scores and he gets bonus points

      1. Letsgo!
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        But jesus will start gw37 and 38?

        1. FPL_Crisis
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Probably depends on fa cup result/mins
          Likely to play both but maybe not start who knows

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Jimmy from those 2

  7. The Suspended One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    A) Ings/KdB for Vardy/Pulisic (-4)
    B) Vardy to Jimmmy
    C) Vardy to Auba
    D) Holgate to Digne
    E) Aurier to Doc

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      E

    2. Ange Ball
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      E

  8. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Sat at 28k , looking to beat last years 27k.

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Good luck!

  9. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Holgate was my first sub for kdb, fail.
    Any news on his injury as my bench stinks. Maybe nketiah plays

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      It’s a shin knock, disappointing to have him come off again

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks mate. Isn’t that what shin pads are for

  10. Chelsea91
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Pope
    Taa,Saiss,Egan
    Martial,Kdb,Bruno,Willian,Antonio
    Greenwood,Ings

    Mc Carthy Aurier,Dcl,Soy

    Good to go for Gw 37 ? Any suggestion on the team?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Nice team. Any chips left?

  11. yalala
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Greenwood + Puli -> Wood + Martial for -4?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Yes

  12. ZAWAd25
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Mane + Greenwood >> Martial + Aubamayang (-4)

    1. yalala
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Aubameyang is a fraud

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Yes

  13. Ange Ball
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Like to get everyone thoughts on my situation withy rival currently 8pts in it keeps going up and down all season. Only person that worried about seems keeping him on top is Martial do I take minus 4 and get him in? If he gets brace might as well say season done. I was going to do Giroud Pulisic to Wood Martial -4 should I do it. Just hope Martial doesn't do anything keep Pulisic and just do Giroud to Wood. He has Sheffield United Back two and Wolves next week so I see him getting good returns as for myself I have Digne Trent Doherty all not doing much

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Martial at home. Could be a bad move

      1. Ange Ball
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        I want to get him in for minus 4 my rival has him doing well with him think worth it

  14. ZAWAd25
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Would you save a transfer here? 3.3m itb

    Pope
    TAA Maguire Saiss
    KDB Mahrez Mane Bruno
    Greenwood Ings Jesus

    (Button Lascelles Guendouzi 3.9)

    1. ZAWAd25
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Upgrade Mahrez to Sterling?

  15. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Best captain for 37+ ??

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Think Martial will be (c) sensible, personally going Sterling

    2. PapaWengzz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Rashford for me

  16. SomeoneKnows
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Pope (Martinez)
    TAA, Saiss, Pieters (Lascelles*, Holgate*)
    KDB, Salah, Fernandes, Martial, Pulisic
    Vardy, Rashford (Connolly)

    A) Vardy > Jesus
    B) Vardy > Ings
    C) Salah > David Silva
    D) Lascelles > Egan
    E) Other ideas?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      D

  17. BERGKOP
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Who would you hold out of Willian and Pulisic?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      *hold as in keep not hold as in hug 🙂

  18. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Which plan?

    A)

    This week: Pulisic > Martial
    Next week: DCL > Jesus

    B)

    This week: DCL > Auba
    Next week: Pulisic > Dilva

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B

      1. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Actually A...don't like Auba

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      A

    3. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B

    4. Ange Ball
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B

  19. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Was thinking to do dcl to jimmy but realise his last game vs chelsea... should i?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Good shout

  20. ZAWAd25
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Mahrez to Sterling (C)?

    Have exact funds

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I would

    2. Letsgo!
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Wow but why? Sterling also nt confirm starting gw37? Or he will?

      1. ZAWAd25
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        I just think Sterling has more chance as he started one in the last three

    3. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah mate, fellow Sterling (c)er

  21. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Pope
    Doherty awb aurier
    Pulisic dsilva(c) sterling bruno saka
    Rash ings

    Subs:button, vvd, dcl,lascelles

    Gtg?

    1. tbeans22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      All of Silva's returns since the restart have come at home. Looking at the C for him in 38+ but not this week.

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        You don't own Sterling then?

        1. tbeans22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Sadly, no. Silva's last match at home for City. Kinda think he'll go out in style against Norwich. If I wasn't chasing 10pts in my ML I'd probably C Bruno (or yeah, Sterling).

          1. Dynamic Duos
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Sterling is the man for 37 and 38 I think

            1. tbeans22
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Very well could be. Pep roulette will make or break the end of the season for some.

            2. Letsgo!
              • 7 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              I hope so!! Actually wanted capt sterling but nt sure if i should for gw37..

              Still got rash or dsilva..

      2. Letsgo!
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Hmm but since he back, he often just have chance to play lesser minutes.

        I still think vs watford could be good

  22. De Gea is GOAT
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Not FPL related but can anyone please direct me to a very reliable link when it comes to football tips? Thanks guys!

    1. tbeans22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Assuming you're talking about American football, FantasyPros has served me well. Fantasypros.com The draft simulator and draft assistant are worth the few bucks they cost

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Football betting tips I presume he means

    2. De Gea is GOAT
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      the real football mate haha need some help with the last 2 GWs. Thanks

    3. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Football tips on teams or players? I'd go to betting sites for odds as a starter.

      1. De Gea is GOAT
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        tips on games. Like results etc. Surely there must be a reliable site somewhere run by a proper football expert.

  23. HurriKane
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Tough one. Which pair do you prefer for last 2gws?

    A) Ings Sterling

    B) Jesus Dilva

    Pope
    TAA Doherty Egan
    Salah KDB Bruno Martial _______
    _______ Greenwood

    Button Connoly Kiko Taylor

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Tough yeah , A easily

    2. ZAWAd25
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      A

    3. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      A

  24. Camino Aleatorio
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Do I keep Salah for Chelsea?

    Do I get Sterling for Watford?

    Salah and Liverpool seem not interested in playing. Chelsea play for CL. Watford playing for survival.

    Leaning Salah to Sterling

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Keep Salah

    2. Choking Hazard
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I’d keep salah.

      Fa cup matches are after GW deadline

  25. Roy Rovers
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Chasing 40 pts.....Vardy > Wood?

    Pope
    TAA Digne Doherty
    Martial Salah Dsilva Bruno Foden
    Vardy Greenwood

    Krul Lascelles Nketiah Johnson.

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Can't see a huge upside. Depends on your opponent's team

    2. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I think Jiminez socres well this week. Deciding between him, Wood, and Ings for my Giroud replacement.

  26. Bainesill
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Best to free hit this week and triple captain next week?

    1. tucaoneo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Probably

    2. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Many FHing next week. Flip a coin IMO

    3. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      TC Martial/Fernandes maybe

  27. BERGKOP
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Keep Willian or Pulisic?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Pulisic

      1. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers

  28. Up the tics
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Has the game fully updated yet?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Yes, I believe so.

  29. The Man Pastore
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Should I save FT for this GW in order to get 2FT GW38?

    Patricio
    Doherty Tarko Keane
    Salah Bruno Martial KDB(c) Mahrez
    Greenwood Vardy

    Bench: Martin Nketiah Kiko Lascelles

    Cheers!

    1. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Definitely save.

    2. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Yh wise move. Those 2ft gives you great chance to nail 3 city attacking spots for Norwich. Could be huge rank booster if so

  30. Rolls-Royce
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    The best option only for this week? (FH GW38)

    Giroud->

    A) Jiminez
    B) Ings
    C) Wood

    Thinking Jiminez as Wolves only team with something to fight for. Slight chance Ings might be rested?

    1. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Rested for what? Summer holiday?

    2. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      B

    3. Choking Hazard
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      Ingsy