Pro Pundits - Mark

How I’ll try to keep pace with the new smart thinkers in FPL this season

When I returned to Fantasy Football in 2006, a statistics fetish and the quest for one-upmanship over my rival Granville inspired this website and underpinned some high ranks in Fantasy Premier League. I got myself a flying start, an early advantage.

Almost fifteen years later, the pitch has been levelled. 

I have to admit, when Fantasy Football Scout became my universe, I buried my head and shut out the social media powered community that grew up around me. I built walls and obsessed about protecting what I had, forgoing likes and subscribers to keep my roof intact.

Now free of those concerns, I was shocked when I reared my head to look around. Both the depth and breadth of the FPL community is extraordinary, the amount of information and data being shared openly overwhelming. 

Eight million managers make a high rank that more difficult to achieve, but the explosion of new voices spraying knowledge and opinion far and wide raises the bar with each passing season. 

Metrics

Back in the day, I was among a few hundred who wandered trance-like down supermarket isles deliberating a four-point hit. Now there are thousands extending loo breaks to unfeasible lengths of time while they compare Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) for touches in the box. Like myself all those years ago, they have spreadsheets, irritated partners and an insatiable drive to succeed: a triple threat.

I need to raise and change my game if I’m to remain in their company. 

Too long in the tooth and arrogant to be told the latest do’s and don’ts or ten tips for success, I know the mechanics of the game and how to bend them to my advantage. To really improve, I need to look hard at myself, analyse my methods and learn from mistakes. 

I’ve always hurried away from FPL failure. I’m almost ashamed that dismal Gameweeks spark family tension in garden centres, so why would I ever dwell on every error? I bury mistakes to maintain an equilibrium. Forget that bad transfer, move on, greet the next deadline as a liquor to quickly drown my sorrows. 

That changes now. I should see my mistakes as an opportunity to learn more about how I play, to identify my favourite error traps and the bias at play when I run my eye over Match of the Day highlights or Goals Imminent tables.

Thanks to an almost catastrophic campaign in 2019/20, I have plenty to pick apart. I’ve learned to enjoy looking back and attempting to fathom my thought process behind each bad decision. But that’s just a post mortem; I need to attack this new season with this same analytical mindset. 

I have to be more inquisitive as each Gameweek rolls by, question and challenge each decision I make and develop methods that reveal a clear choice that I’m happy to take, not just one I’ve convinced myself is correct by brute-forcing fuzzy numbers and rose-tinted eye tests.  

You might have noticed that psychology is a popular buzzword right now, an emerging theme in the community that can be conveniently tucked away in a bulging box file labelled “overthinking”. 

But I’m convinced that something is afoot. When Magnus Carlsen, the world’s finest Chess player, hits the FPL top 100, we need to stop in our tracks and consider that there could be a new breed among us. 

I reckon your average Grandmaster spends more time pondering King to G7, rather than King to centre forward. So I might have the edge on Magnus when it comes to thinking time, I may even have more knowledge and data at my disposal. 

But does Magnus employ a logical method to his decisions and keep bias and emotion in check? Does he indulge in bouts of introspection and analysis of his judgement calls? Does he read all those psychology threads on Twitter with a knowing smile?

He’s the best chess player in the world. He does all the above and has a team of advisors doing it for him while he sleeps. 

These days everyone can get a glut of knowledge, information and data in their timeline with relative ease. But to work out how best to process it, how you learn to separate luck from skill and focus on improving the input, not dwell on the output, that might just be the new marginal gain. A fresh route to success.

After last season, I’ll give anything a go. 

Magnus must be petrified.  

Best players by position:

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

1,076 Comments Post a Comment
    1. Earn your Spurs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks - I'm in !

  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Like he was never gone!

    In all seriousness, missed these. Such a good read.

    1. teddy.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Likewise. Welcome back, Chief!

    2. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      This! ^

    3. FPL Panda
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Agreed. The king is back

  2. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Good read, looking for to the season.

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      forward*

  3. HollywoodXI
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    How I’ve missed the Preamble. Great to have you back Mark.

  4. adams_6
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Fantastic news!! THE best thing on the site back in the day. Now I’ll go back and read it!

    1. adams_6
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yep. Brilliant. I’ve missed this Saturday morning read immensely. The reason I became a member. Felt I had to reward the site. Keep it in!

  5. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Love this

  6. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Saturday morning done right.

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      hear hear !

    2. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Absolutely!!

  7. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Favourite article of the week

    1. souleil
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Indeed! So stocked Mark is back

  8. Samurai Blue
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Great read on Saturday morning! Welcome back Mark!

  9. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Nice read - can empathise with many a garden centre trip being ruined by FPL

    1. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      😀 (Trying to keep smiling while all the time burning up inside - crazy really)

    2. The Rumour Mill
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Last season I was lucky, was in a garden centre as a vvd and taa owner when they played Brighton and Trent got the 2 assists for 2 vvd headers. I think I bought about 10 succulents as I was so elated!

  10. 3 A
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks.

  11. Christina.
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Would pay to see his team for wk 1.

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      If you're still about and dont mind sharing... how are you setting up?

  12. Andy_Social
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Splendid article, love the critical self-reflection. A hearty welcome back, Mark.

    Must admit, I'm feeling some pressure too. A new rival has joined our mini-league - he was 1st in our country for most of the last decade, so I'll need to up my game too!

    1. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Colin Brown AKA Scooter City?

  13. Sensible Shocker
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Journalism worthy of any publication. Thanks

  14. Greyhead
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Lovely to see this back. Now Mark vs Magnus that would be a great and good rivalry

  15. Paul
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Oh the glorious saturdays of yesteryear are back!!
    Loved the article Mark..it's like you were never gone...no rustiness whatsoever

  16. CBN
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Can recognise so much of what you speak of Mark.

    And, of course, nothing has changed - the preamble is unmissable reading - worth the membership alone.

  17. zøphar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Great read , missed these

  18. kennethrhcp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    You (along with others) have been missed Mark... welcome back!

    Hopefully more of the old school get back posting here

  19. Mattidor
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Hi Mark, amazing article, very relatable. So glad you’re back!

    Had my two worst rank finishes of my fpl career in the two years you were gone, let’s turn this around again 😉

  20. Roy Rovers
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Decent plan / team?

    GW2 Son > Bruno
    GW3 Auba > KDB. (1ITB to upgrade non performers / injuries)

    McCarthy Nyland
    TAA Vinagre Taylor Justin Johnson
    Salah Auba Son Armstrong Soucek
    Kane Mitro Brewster

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Seems the plan for many

      Would you consider Chelsea mid over son week 1?

      1. Roy Rovers
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah, should really with Kane covering Spurs.

        1. Roy Rovers
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Thanks by the way.

          1. kennethrhcp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            No bother 🙂 I only try reply where I some thought out process rather than a scatter gun A or B answers with little thought

        2. kennethrhcp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I think he is a great price and I've owned him alot in the past... I dunno if ive been subconsciously sucked into the thought process of Jose creates defensive teams and Harry was a holding midfielder end of the season... 10.5 seems great value

          1. Roy Rovers
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah looking further down the track if Kane isn’t performing easy switch to Aguero if required. Cheers.

            1. kennethrhcp
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              I've gone light up top at the mo in jimenez mitro 4.5. Might lose 1 premium mid and go bigger up front

    2. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      It’s really thin in defence...at least one more nailed/good defender is required there.

      1. Roy Rovers
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Vinagre could become Saiss but think Vinagre will start with Doherty departing.

  21. kennethrhcp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Starting back line of: TAA, Doherty, Saliba, KWP, (AWB)

    seem ok? Play 442 week 1. money ITB for Bruno in week2

    1. 15th Time Lucky
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Providing Saliba's nailed, I like it.

      1. kennethrhcp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Ya that's it really. From the outside I'd guess he would be but best wait and see what Arteta says nearer the time or arsenal fans thoughts

        Thanks for the reply

      2. Roy Rovers
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Like it....my 1ITB will probably be a 4.5 def to AWB.

        1. kennethrhcp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Any plans for bruno and kdb?

          1. Roy Rovers
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah as above...but if Auba scores big the first two weekends could change things!!

            1. kennethrhcp
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              I'm still tired.... apologies!

  22. circusmonkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Sometimes, variations happen in sport because it isn't perfectly predictable. Whatever method you use to decide, it might not be that the problem was the method or your pyschological failings, it might just be that on the day or over a number of weeks (that we can't predict) things happen that you don't want.

    I suppose that some examples through the season will help me understand and I will watch him with Az in their new YouTube shows.

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Sport is 100% predictable. It is defined by form, matchup and player wellbeing. What you describe as randomness is simply a lack of understanding of one of these three things. Now it may be nigh on impossible to know how every player is feeling each week, what their nutrition is etc, but not impossible.

      1. Oi! Shadders!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        So how much did you win on Bayern 8 Barcelona 2?

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          You clearly dont understand. The Professor uses a lit of this logic in the RMT tool

          1. Oi! Shadders!
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Which is, of course, 100% accurate because sport is 100% predictable.

      2. Sharkytect
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        100%.

        Come on, now. Are you fishing for bites with that?

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Is anything actually random?

          1. jimski
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Not necessarily "random", but chaotic and thus unpredictable, yes.

          2. beastie
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Yes

      3. circusmonkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Are you going to go to each training ground and ask them then? Then, when they prove over confident (which they do, they hardly are going to say, I feel bad and I think we'll lose), what are you going to do?

      4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        So when the thoroughbred 100-1 odds-on favourite gets stung in the eye by a passing wasp as he exits the traps, all we needed to know was his form, matchup and well-being to know the outcome of the race?

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          And the form and tactics of his opponents including the wasp

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Sounds pretty conclusive

            Ladies & Gentlemen - Sport is hereby confirmed as 100% predictable

            As you were 🙂

      5. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I'm a big believer in determinism, I think Einstein actually proved it, because if you can move forward in time at a faster rate than others then the future is set, and so are our decions. Every decision we make is the result of a long series of dominoes, our experiences and our genetics combined.

        But ever trying to manually predict human behavior is near impossible. Someone could see a butterfly on their way to work that affects a decision later. Would be crazy to try imo.

        We can only play the percentages and hope for the best.

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Yes, but still no reason to define it as impossible

        2. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Did you watch Devs?

          1. Piggs Boson
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Never heard of it, I've held this belief ever since I studied neural computing at uni.

            Sounds right up my alley though, I'll put it on the watchlist, thanks!

  23. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I’ve seen lots benching United attacking assets but almost no one bench United defence.

    Think it’s still under the radar how well United defence performed post 25 Bruno. Unlike attack -,where there are heaps of options - defence hasn’t hit a price bump.

    The immediate fixtures are fairly kind for United defence and benching Shaw/AWB allows for single move in week 2 for attacker of choice while still fielding almost full strength side week 1

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I reckon I'm doing it. Feels ok benching 5.5 and decent options at 4.5 to cover week1

    2. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Spurs, Chelsea & Arsenal in the first 6 games plus we haven't signed a defender and I'm a bit worried about Maguire. I'd stay away for now and reconsider from GW8 onwards.

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Fair enough but Brighton Palace Newcastle in other 3.

    3. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Maguire was sentenced to 21 months jail and no decent backup for CB ? Looks like better to prioritize the attacker

      1. kennethrhcp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Suspended sentence and theres a retrial

        1. circusmonkey
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          He won't do a single minute inside. I believe him actually.

          1. Third Eye Vision
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah. I think he’s been totally stitched up.

        2. Stockport Hatter
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          And the sentence is lifted completely pending the appeal.

    4. jimski
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I plan to bench AWB. As long as he emerges from quarantine!

  24. psyurmh
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Hi guys, anybody know what Greenwood's post lock down score would have been as a midfielder?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Eleventy

    2. psyurmh
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      As in PPG

      1. Hedge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        6.3ppg - 241 over the season if he maintained the form for a whole season. Id expect him to get near 200 if he's nailed

  25. Pacer.
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I started playing TFF around the turn of the century and when we formed an official league I went on to trailblaze, scooping 5 titles in 10 years. I haven't won now for 5 years.

    Much like Mark, once I was ahead of the curve and now I am behind it.

    We are all Arsene Wenger

  26. Totalfootball
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Steer or nyland ?

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Based on what I've seen a couple fans say, Steer

    2. Indpush
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Both

  27. Pipermaru
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Return of the King.

  28. jzee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Oh mark ... we’ve missed you

  29. psyurmh
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    What was Mark's rank last year?