‘Big at the Back’ the Right Call for the Long Haul?

There seems to have been less talk of ‘big at the back’ during this truncated preseason, with managers focusing on the plethora of midfield talent.

However, as we all know, we cannot have them all. And throughout our teams we find ourselves looking for the £7.0m-and-below players to play important roles in our teams. Managers spend vast amounts of time pouring over the stats to find the latest unheralded midfield gem or the newest fox in the box.

However, looking at the most important statistic in FPL – points – shows that banking on a solid defence over 38 Gameweeks is probably the best strategy.

If we compare every price bracket from Trent Alexander-Arnold at £7.5m to the £4.0m bench fodder, a defender is always the highest outfield point-scorer. Alexander-Arnold is in 55% of teams and is far and away the most-owned player. The logic is obvious where else can you find a player who scores 200+ points for £7.5m? The answer is nowhere.

However, can that logic be applied elsewhere?

His teammate Andy Robertson scored 181 points and comes in at a £7.0m. The closest attacking player valued at that price and below is Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish (£7.0m), who falls a massive 32 points behind. In fact, the only other position that gets close is Burnley goalkeeper Nick Pope (£5.5m), who fell a mere 11 points short.

A similar comparison can be made with highly-owned defenders Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) and Matt Doherty (£6.0m) – no midfielders or forwards get anywhere near these points totals of last year.

Further down the price brackets we come to the plethora of options at £5.5m. Currently the highest-owned player in the bracket is Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.5m) who scored a meager 92 points last season – that total can be bettered by 24 defenders and 15 goalkeepers. 

Many within the community often justify the captaining of a midfielder over a forward because of the extra points for goals and clean sheets. This article will not try to justify captaining defenders on a regular basis (see Shane Duffy). When looking at the mid-price assets, why do we not value the clean sheets for defenders over forwards and midfielders? 

Clean Sheets v Goals

For example, let’s look to Burnley where we can pick up for a pricey £5.5m Nick Pope and James Tarkowski or we could invest in their forward line in the shape of Chris Wood at £6.5m. Wood was the highest point-scoring forward or midfielder at that price bracket from last season (except for John Lundstram (£5.5m) who was a defender last season).

Wood scored a respectable 14 goals last year, however Burnley kept 15 clean sheets.  The net result: ever-presents Pope and Tarkowski already have more points than Wood before we even factor in Pope’s save points and Tarkowski’s goals and assists, of which he got two goals and three assists in the last campaign. But we must remember that defenders and goalkeepers lose points for every two goals conceded, therefore you might not want to play Tarkowski away at Manchester City.

Delving deeper into the statistics and looking at expected goals (xG) statistics. We can’t hide the fact that midfielders tend to do better. However, of current midfielders, Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse (£6.0m) sits top of midfielders under £7.5m with 13.46xG. Below him in the rankings are some fantasy favourites Jack Grealish, James Maddison, Mason Mount, Harvey Barnes, and Adama Traore all costing £7.0m except Traore (£6.5m). The range of the xG varies from 13.24 to 10.31, however all bar Maddison and Ward-Prowse outperformed that number.

Now before presenting the data for the defenders, let’s remember the mitigating factors: defenders get three more clean-sheet points than midfielders; they will generally cost you less money unless they play for Liverpool; and for every goal scored, they get an extra point.

No surprise Doherty tops the xG with 8.99 but with xG all above 7.00 there is Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.0m), Lucas Digne (£6.0m) and Andrew Robertson. 

Liverpool spots are precious in your team and many managers tried the double-Liverpool defence at the beginning of the season, before quickly jumping off during the early season when Adrian was between the sticks. However, if you are sitting in front of your draft with any of the above mentioned midfielders, the question must be – is Robertson not a better option?

The stats would indicate Robertson’s goal involvement will likely increase with his greater involvement in set-piece duties in the second half of the season. During the first 19 Gameweeks, Robertson had one attempt from a free-kick and took three corners. In the second half of the season Robertson seemed to have a monopoly on corners from the left-hand side, taking 39. He also had four attempts from set plays.

Returning to the popular Allan Saint-Maximin, you get a player with an xG of 6.36. For a £0.5m saving you can get a number of defenders with an xG of above five with the added bonus of clean sheet points. The likes of Lewis Dunk (£5.0m, 5.18xG) and Ryan Bertrand (£5.0m, 5.56xG) can get close to Saint-Maximin’s attacking output and will pick up clean sheets. For the same price you can back the Sheffield United defence in Enda Stevens (£5.5m, 5.56xG) or the currently-injured Crystal Palace full-back Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m, 5.34xG)

If you compare forwards for the price of £7.0m you can only find three players with an xG Involvement of above 10. Wood, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.0m), Neal Maupay (£6.5m), and Sebastien Haller (£6.5m). 

Even when looking at attempts in the box, defenders compare fairly well with forwards. Maupay and Calvert-Lewin had 73 and 74 attempts in the box, the next best is Wood at 58. You can replace almost half of Wood’s attempts that with cheaper centre-backs, Harry Maguire (£5.5m), John Egan (£5.0m), Yeri Mina (£5.5m) and Dunk all having over 25 shots or more in the box.

Going big at the back is not easy: the rigid squad numbers in midfield need to be filled and the options are limited. Burnley and Wolves, two reliable Premier League defences, allow easy ways into their defence, while the options for £4.5m starting midfielders are limited and the cheap forwards appears to be non-existent.

But if you identify bench fodder in defence there are options for the same in midfield. Following the departure of Pierre-Emile Hojberg (£5.0m) to Tottenham you would hope Oriol Romeu (£4.5m) would hold down a starting position, and a recently departed Saint, Harrison Reed (£4.5m), will likely anchor the Fulham midfield.

They are not spectacular but will get points from the bench when needed. Most managers appear to be hoping Rhian Brewster (£4.5m) secures a loan move from away from Anfield, if this was the case investing heavily in defence will become easier. Not to mention there will be a Todd Cantwell out there somewhere.

Conclusion

The statistics show the best value in FPL is in defence. The strategy is long term and it takes a stubborn manager.

When Allan Saint-Maximin bags a brace on the opening weekend and Patrick Bamford (£5.5m) bundles the ball home at Anfield, the bandwagon will be rolling, the masses will empty funds from their defence to jump onto whichever bargain-basement player hits form next. You then get in a vicious cycle of hopping on and off different cheap midfielders and forwards.

It won’t be easy on the nerves as you watch the clock from minute zero through the unbearable injury-time minutes, as Chris Wood – a player you have completely disregarded – holds the ball up in the corner as Burnley hold out for another 1-0 home win. Pope taking the mandatory three bonus points despite Tarkowski nodding home the winner from a set piece. 

It’s not natural sitting through a football match eager not to see a shot on target, hoping for a boring 0-0 draw. But your defenders start the match with a clean sheet they have something to hold onto from minute one. Your attacking players have to score to earn something your defenders don’t have to do anything. 

‘Big at the back’ gives you more players from the better teams. These players can get close to the expected attacking returns of the mid-priced options with the added clean-sheet potential. Expensive defenders generally guarantee you starts (unless you play for Manchester City), they will limit your need for transfers they are set-and-forget players. 

The article started with you cannot have all the big hitters, this strategy allows you to jump from one to the other ensuring you have the right big hitter to put the armband on when this year’s Norwich City come rolling into town.

You need to stick with it for 38 weeks, it will only show at the end of the season, and you will likely be behind after Gameweek 1, but if you hold firm ‘Big at the Back’ will pay you back in spades. Just don’t captain Shane Duffy.