Pro Pundits - Sam

Why I’m being patient with my FPL transfers after a disappointing Gameweek 1

Fantasy Premier League managers should exercise patience, even after a difficult Gameweek 1 for some.

It can be easy to make rash transfer decisions after one round of matches, but, if I do transfer anyone out, I will be doing it after much consideration in the cold light of day, and ensuring the change is made after upcoming midweek matches.

The gap between the first two Gameweeks is one of my favourite times of an FPL season. Blank Gameweek clubs aside, we now have a full set of data from the first round of fixtures, as well as a first look at the teamsheets for each club.

That has given us more information to rely on in terms of owning the right £4.0m defenders and £4.5m midfielders, as well as the right premium assets. 

At this stage, it would be very easy to panic. There are several big decisions to be made, even after just one Gameweek in the history books.

As I write this, Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) is owned by 33.9% managers worldwide, 66% of them are perhaps wondering how to fit the Egyptian King into their squads, or how to hold their nerve for one more week – and there is the return of both Manchester clubs to contend with.

Meanwhile, there were many in the Fantasy community planning to sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) ahead of Gameweek 3, but his goal and Arsenal’s performance at Fulham could make such a move harder than some might have imagined. Up next, the Gunners face a West Ham side that looked off-colour against Newcastle, so Aubameyang could conceivably be heading into Gameweek 3 on the back of two decent scores.

With so many of the dilemmas featuring the most expensive players in the game, Aubameyang, Salah and the Manchester assets, I am expecting chaotic FPL transfers this week, with plenty of price changes.

Ahead of Gameweek 2, the market comes into its own as managers make early moves to bring in players and avoid price rises. 

On Saturday, 10,000 brave souls sold Salah before he had even kicked a ball against Leeds. A further 1,000 of them jettisoned him during the game itself, an outing in which he scored a hat-trick and registered a 20-point haul. 

By half-time at Craven Cottage, Aubameyang was the sixth-most transferred-in, as well as being the third-most transferred-out player. Elsewhere, Son Heung-min (£9.0m) had suffered the loss of 3,000 managers by the time Crystal Palace hosted Southampton Saturday, despite not playing until the following afternoon.

A lot of this early chopping and changing of other managers does make it hard to stick to your strategy. In such circumstances, it is easy to second-guess yourself constantly, worried about being priced out of your must-have transfer.

There is no way to win FPL, or indeed lose it, during the opening couple of Gameweeks… but you can destroy your strategy by panicking and overthinking. 

The whole of pre-season was spent formulating a team that we believed would be the right one for the beginning of the campaign, not just for Gameweek 1. 

Players such as Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.5m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m), Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Danny Ings (£8.5m) are not, all of a sudden, bad options because they blanked in Gameweek 1. These are the sort of players who showed last season that they can often return points.

Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) is a prime example of how luck can play a part in Fantasy. He managed just three penalty box touches at West Bromwich Albion, two of which were spot-kicks, which he converted. The Leicester man did not pass the eye test at all, yet he ended up as one of the highest-scoring forwards of the Gameweek. Sometimes the luck is with you, as was the case with Vardy owners in Gameweek 1, and sometimes it’s not. This trend will continue to oscillate throughout the course of the season, so do not be too easily disheartened. Premium assets are expensive for a reason and luck can turn in a heartbeat.

As for myself, owning Salah and Aubameyang for this opening weekend was a good decision; the rest of my players were complete let-downs. 

Like many of you, I am tempted to remove some players who failed to deliver in Gameweek 1. I could switch Che Adams (£6.0m) to Patrick Bamford (£5.5m) or Saint-Maximin to Daniel Podence (£5.5m), for example. However, these sorts of rash transfer decisions, based only on frustration and data from just one match, nearly always do more harm than good in the long-term.

During the build-up to Gameweek 1, I had a plan for my transfers and I intend to stay true to it. My FPL management style is the opposite of an upside-chaser. I am loyal to my FPL assets, I like to hold and roll transfers and give myself as much thinking time and data as possible to make my decisions with. 

Between now and the Gameweek 2 deadline, we have EFL Cup matches for Newcastle, West Ham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, West Brom, Fulham, Southampton, Leeds, Everton, Sheffield United, Wolves and Brighton – and Spurs are in Europea League action too. 

As far as I am concerned, each of these is another chance to evaluate a team and the busy schedule is another reason to wait until Thursday or Friday before making my transfers.

These midweek fixtures could all throw up potential injuries that could force FPL managers into another transfer, or even an unwanted points-hit if moves have already been made. I hate doing this, so I will remain as patient as possible.

But just because I want to take this approach with transfers, does not mean I won’t be making any at all. At this stage, I am not ruling out changes for Gameweek 2.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

I planned to start the season with a Manchester United asset on my bench so that I was ready for their Gameweek 2 match against Crystal Palace. However, in the build-up to the Gameweek 1 deadline, there were doubts around Marcus Rashford’s (£9.5m) fitness, Bruno Fernandes‘ (£10.5m) potential need for quarantine, as well as uncertainty surrounding Mason Greenwood (£7.5m) in light of an ongoing Jadon Sancho transfer saga, and the youngster’s antics while on international duty with England. The number of unknowns surrounding Manchester United assets meant I did not feel comfortable deciding who to own a whole week ahead of their opening game of the campaign.

Coupling this dilemma with the high ownership of other similarly-priced assets convinced me to go with Son for a home meeting with Everton. This was a decision which, on paper, felt like the right one. Spurs had not lost a Premier League match against Everton since December 2012. Well, now the Toffees’ last victory against them came as recently as… last weekend. Even though Son has previously represented a viable investment, his wider role in Jose Mourinho’s team continues to disappoint the South Korean’s Fantasy owners, just as it did during Project Restart.

That said, Son was always in my team as something of a cash-cow, ready and waiting to be upgraded to a Manchester United asset at some point. Is Gameweek 2 too early to pull the trigger on such a move? This was something I was happy to consider before kick-off on opening day, on reflection, I am even happier to do now. But with so many players failing to impress in Gameweek 1, the difficulty comes in deciding who my priority transfers are.

'Out of position' Zaha scores as £4.0m defender Mitchell aids Palace clean sheet

Crystal Palace surprised me in their 1-0 win over Southampton. They were stronger defensively than we saw at the end of last season, Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) is playing up-front as an out-of-position FPL midfielder and new signing Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) impressed me when he came on for a nine-minute cameo. 

But I am making sure I remember this: all of my potential moves will be on hold until after midweek action. The last thing I want is to use a transfer, only to see someone else in my squad injured in the EFL Cup or Europa League.

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Sam FPLFamily <p>Fantasy Football Scout's General Manager. Half of the FPLFamily. Pundit on the FPL Pod, Fantasy Show and Sky Sports News&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

2,806 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Shankly611
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What are the odds for a Bruno price raise tonight?

    1. Pedersen
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Tonight low.

    2. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Would love to know the same

    3. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      46.6%

    4. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      There’s a chance- last year some price rises came out of nowhere!

  2. danlynch13
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any one still looking at greenwood as an option?

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Still practicing away from the team, not sure he gets a start GW2, but he'll be a great option at his price.

      1. danlynch13
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cool thanks

    2. Marmalade Forest
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Been in my side since launch day.
      Only getting rid of ManU get Sancho

  3. That Was Easy!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone else feeling like this?

    I think it's easy to spin a narrative to support your potential GW2 transfers.

    For example, Alli > James
    1. Keep: Alli looked OK, Jose to reign in the team and they bounce back against a team who looked defensively poor GW1, with Alli playing the whole game.
    2. Make the move: James looked great, hungry, etc. However it was his debut and an experienced player on debut usually shows that type of prowess to impress. Can he keep it up? Will DCL and Richarlison continue to be ineffective like the end last season?

    Even though I own Alli and Havertz, I'm likely to hold my FT for this reason. I picked my team for the first 4-5 weeks and I don't think enough has happened in order for me to make moves. In a week's time we'll know 2x more than we did this week.

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks fir this, it helps somewhat with my decision (below)

    2. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Alli is one of the very few players I would spend a transfer removing if I had him

      1. That Was Easy!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I'm going to watch for Thursday's lineup, if he doesn't play I'll likely keep. If he's out, I'll probably move for James.

    3. Ibralicious
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Interesting thought process. My only basis for rushing moves early is the aggressive price rises. Helps to build team value early-on and being priced out of getting crucial players this early can be pivotal.

      1. That Was Easy!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yep, price rices always helpful, but plenty do well without exceptional value. There's value per pound everywhere, and especially where those with high TV don't look.

        1. That Was Easy!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          But like you said, in the early stages it's very easy to get priced out.

          1. Steinburg FC
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            theres always somebody else

    4. Steinburg FC
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm going Ings to Martial as planned and i'll watch Alli's minutes on thursday, if he starts then i'm going Pulasic.

  4. Silecro
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What have I missed with all those Alli out comments. Besides obviously being bad and taken out at HT, did he get injured? Or Mou explicitly said he wasnt gonna start him next game?

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Tactical. Watch for Thursday lineup and minutes.

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Removed because they needed a little more in that position, sounds like he’s headed to the doghouse

    3. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      It's just a combination of him being taken off early for "tactical" reasons and Spurs looking awful.

    4. Brehmeren
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He'll be fine for the next game. Mou had praised his form before the game, so he isn't gonna be dropped because of one average half.

  5. M2.0
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Bottomed

    Vinagre >

    a) Holding
    b) Lamptey
    c) Aisling
    d) ...

    Cheers

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Don't think any of those transfers are worth it. I'd just keep and sort later.

      1. M2.0
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        you don’t think his price will drop?

        1. That Was Easy!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Bound to have someone in your team drop in price this week yeah? Or hopefully not because they all performed.

    2. Salarrivederci
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Did not watch a lot of matches this week. Watched Lamptey tonight though. He looks class!

      1. M2.0
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Leaning towards him, he had Alonso in his back pocket all game!

    3. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Ayling but depends on which GWs you need to play him.

  6. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    1. Alli >> JamesRod
    2. Alli >> Greenwood
    3. Havertz >> Rashford

    Thanks

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      3. I think Alli might play the next one. Spurs didn't look better without him.

    2. hshepherd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Close one between 1 and 3 for me. Depends on who you would like to keep longer term

  7. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Pope
    Digne - AWB - Lamptey
    Salah - KDB - Fernandes - Rodríguez - Trossard
    Martial - Bamford

    (Peacock, Mitchel, Burr, Brewster)

    WC is always fun!

    1. Rocky FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Why?

  8. BENOIT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any reason not to pull the trigger on Ings ---> Martial right now?

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Already done my kane > Martial. Let’s make him rise tonight x

    2. Rocky FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Any reason to pull the trigger now?
      He isn't going up in price tonight.

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nope imo

    4. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No

  9. Babelcopter
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any chance that Tammy starts and Werner benched? Werner's fitness some concern I think

    1. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No chance I'm afraid

    2. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Slim

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Only if he's properly injured. He played 90 mins which is more than Tammy typically did. Fitness isn't an issue.

    4. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Injury concern / covid perhaps. But isn't Giroud still Chelsea player?

      1. Brehmeren
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        No

  10. King Kohli
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Best move here?
    A. Havertz > Hamez
    B. Havertz + Ings > Bruno + Wilson(-4)
    C. Havertz + Ings > Hamez + Martial (-4)

    McCarthy
    TAA Coady Davies Justin
    Salah Auba Havertz Asm
    Werner Ings

  11. Bad Kompany
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    If you’d be priced out otherwise would you do transfers right now?

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Of course

    2. Marmalade Forest
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No.

  12. MESSINHO
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Bottomed

    Mccarthy
    TAA Davies Justin
    Auba Salah Alli ASM
    Werner Ings Mitro

    Subs: Steer - C. Taylor - Mitchell - Reed

    What to do here guys?

    A) Alli -> James Rodriguez
    B) Alli -> Greenwood
    C) Alli + Ings -> James/Greenwood + Martial (-4)
    D) Save

    1. Rocky FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      D

  13. Ibralicious
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Pick em' lads:

    A) TAA + Adams -> James + Martial (-4)
    B) TAA + Adams -> Holding + Martial (-4)
    C) Kane-> Martial (FT)

    Cheers!

    1. The Pesci challenge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C

      1. Ibralicious
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers

    2. JBG
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C

    3. hshepherd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C

  14. hshepherd
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Best option?
    A) Havertz >> Fernandes
    B) Alli >> Rodriguez
    C) Both for -4

    Cheers

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Rocky FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A.

  15. Babit1967
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Horrible week 1 but I actually do like my team for this week

    Leno

    Taa Davies KWP

    Bruno (C) Havertz James Asm

    Kane Martial Werner

  16. DeadStarComing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    My first time watching Werner live for 90 minutes tonight. From an FPL perspective it's a bit concerning how deep and wide he comes often. I reckon the Chelsea mids may eventually become the go to players.

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He will become a very good pick but I can't believe I completely ignored Vardy for .5 more. If I had to pick one when all fully fit, it would still be Puli

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Still early doors.

    3. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He definitely looked much more dangerous compared to Havertz.

    4. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Won’t have to come so deep when ziyech and Pulisic are there to carry the creative weight. Still looked a threat even when he can deep because he can carry the ball brilliantly

    5. Barnabus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      When he has Ziyech and Puli playing as well he'll stay more central IMO, I can see him getting a lot of through balls as he runs off the back of the defender once he's fully fit.

    6. DeadStarComing
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      All good points cheers all

    7. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      And Jorginho shot the pen... Add the fact that he needed ice. Keeping Salah for now, and ditching Saka and Werner for Bruno and fodder looks like the move to make.

    8. Hiroku
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He played the exact same way for Leipzig and still scored 28 goals. I reckon he will be the highest scoring player in Chelsea's squad.

  17. SomeoneKnows
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Help me decide...

    A) Havertz + Ings > Bruno + DCL
    B) Havertz + Ings > Bruno + Wilson
    C) Havertz + Adams > Bruno + Brewster

    1. hshepherd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A out of those options

  18. Mithrandir, the Grey Pilgri…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Well for me Everton passed the eye test in GW1, far more than Chelsea. And good fixtures. West Brom, Palace, Brighton.

    Havertz to Rodriguez
    Adams to RCL.

    -4

    Was going to get Bruno for Salah with my GW2 FT but after seeing Chelsea tonight and Salah at the weekend I will hold.

  19. jam
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Looks like I need to move Saka out. Who's my best replacement? Thinking Leeds, Klick/Harrison, anything between them? Anyone else to look at?
    6.5 or under.

    1. El Magico5
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Podence after city

    2. lugs
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Doucoure, nailed and is always good for a few goals every season

      1. jam
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers chaps, I'll take a look at them

  20. Strchld
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Tempted to do Alli and Ings > Foden and Martial. How stupid move is that?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Will Foden start?

      1. Strchld
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Dont know at all. Another option would be Rodriguez or Greenwood.

  21. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How was the SHU defence after conceding the 2 goals?

    1. Barnabus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Better from open play, shaky at set pieces

  22. Barnabus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Don't see many talking about Jimenez, but with Wolves fixtures from GW3-GW7 surely he's essential in any WC team?

    1. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yep, his goal today means that he's still never blanked 4 times in a row.

      1. Ser Davos
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        interesting

    2. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Looked good tbf

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Probably in GW3. He is just set and forget

  23. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who would you prefer to start?:
    Taylor (LEI)-A
    KWP (TOT)-H

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      KWP

  24. Pukkipartyy
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Do you think Greenwood is going to start?

  25. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Antonio & Ali to Harrison & Martial - 4?

  26. Sargasso C
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I had an 80 point GW and because of that I feel fine taking a -8. I'm getting in James for Soucek and DCL for Adams. Ok it may back fire but I feel longterm this makes my team a lot stronger. I don't mind taking hits if you have a good feeling.

  27. shearer9
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Got 80 points from 10 players but Pulisic and Vinagre (first sub) didn't play. Should I look to ditch either or both?

    1. Utopsis
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keep Puli, swap Vinagre

  28. noahzark22
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    DCL to be this year's Jimenez?

    1. Boomerang V
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Everton looking really good. But Jimi is a much better player IMO

  29. Boomerang V
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I want to get rid of:

    Ramsdale: Not even close to Hendo
    TAA: out of fitness, enable massive upgrades
    JPW: Want Harisson
    Son: Playing wide, want Pullisic
    Ings: Swap to Jimi
    Antonio: WHU fixtures turn bad, want Werner or Martial

    Would you WC to make these changes?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I finished on 57 points. Triple SHU defence fail plus Salah with majority of my points.

      Still won't be triggering WC now. I will have 2 FT's to change things up next week.

    2. jam
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not yet! Next week you'll want Sterling or Bruno or Greenwood or Foden or someone else. Don't panic.

    3. jam
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd ditch Son, that's all

    4. Boomerang V
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      thanks

  30. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    79 points to start, could be worse
    Half from Salah and thank you Saiss.
    This impending price rise from Kdb is annoying. Trying to stay strong and save FT. Might just get Sterling instead for GW3