Pro Pundits - Sam

Why I’m being patient with my FPL transfers after a disappointing Gameweek 1

Fantasy Premier League managers should exercise patience, even after a difficult Gameweek 1 for some.

It can be easy to make rash transfer decisions after one round of matches, but, if I do transfer anyone out, I will be doing it after much consideration in the cold light of day, and ensuring the change is made after upcoming midweek matches.

The gap between the first two Gameweeks is one of my favourite times of an FPL season. Blank Gameweek clubs aside, we now have a full set of data from the first round of fixtures, as well as a first look at the teamsheets for each club.

That has given us more information to rely on in terms of owning the right £4.0m defenders and £4.5m midfielders, as well as the right premium assets. 

At this stage, it would be very easy to panic. There are several big decisions to be made, even after just one Gameweek in the history books.

As I write this, Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) is owned by 33.9% managers worldwide, 66% of them are perhaps wondering how to fit the Egyptian King into their squads, or how to hold their nerve for one more week – and there is the return of both Manchester clubs to contend with.

Meanwhile, there were many in the Fantasy community planning to sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) ahead of Gameweek 3, but his goal and Arsenal’s performance at Fulham could make such a move harder than some might have imagined. Up next, the Gunners face a West Ham side that looked off-colour against Newcastle, so Aubameyang could conceivably be heading into Gameweek 3 on the back of two decent scores.

With so many of the dilemmas featuring the most expensive players in the game, Aubameyang, Salah and the Manchester assets, I am expecting chaotic FPL transfers this week, with plenty of price changes.

Ahead of Gameweek 2, the market comes into its own as managers make early moves to bring in players and avoid price rises. 

On Saturday, 10,000 brave souls sold Salah before he had even kicked a ball against Leeds. A further 1,000 of them jettisoned him during the game itself, an outing in which he scored a hat-trick and registered a 20-point haul. 

By half-time at Craven Cottage, Aubameyang was the sixth-most transferred-in, as well as being the third-most transferred-out player. Elsewhere, Son Heung-min (£9.0m) had suffered the loss of 3,000 managers by the time Crystal Palace hosted Southampton Saturday, despite not playing until the following afternoon.

A lot of this early chopping and changing of other managers does make it hard to stick to your strategy. In such circumstances, it is easy to second-guess yourself constantly, worried about being priced out of your must-have transfer.

There is no way to win FPL, or indeed lose it, during the opening couple of Gameweeks… but you can destroy your strategy by panicking and overthinking. 

The whole of pre-season was spent formulating a team that we believed would be the right one for the beginning of the campaign, not just for Gameweek 1. 

Players such as Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.5m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m), Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Danny Ings (£8.5m) are not, all of a sudden, bad options because they blanked in Gameweek 1. These are the sort of players who showed last season that they can often return points.

Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) is a prime example of how luck can play a part in Fantasy. He managed just three penalty box touches at West Bromwich Albion, two of which were spot-kicks, which he converted. The Leicester man did not pass the eye test at all, yet he ended up as one of the highest-scoring forwards of the Gameweek. Sometimes the luck is with you, as was the case with Vardy owners in Gameweek 1, and sometimes it’s not. This trend will continue to oscillate throughout the course of the season, so do not be too easily disheartened. Premium assets are expensive for a reason and luck can turn in a heartbeat.

As for myself, owning Salah and Aubameyang for this opening weekend was a good decision; the rest of my players were complete let-downs. 

Like many of you, I am tempted to remove some players who failed to deliver in Gameweek 1. I could switch Che Adams (£6.0m) to Patrick Bamford (£5.5m) or Saint-Maximin to Daniel Podence (£5.5m), for example. However, these sorts of rash transfer decisions, based only on frustration and data from just one match, nearly always do more harm than good in the long-term.

During the build-up to Gameweek 1, I had a plan for my transfers and I intend to stay true to it. My FPL management style is the opposite of an upside-chaser. I am loyal to my FPL assets, I like to hold and roll transfers and give myself as much thinking time and data as possible to make my decisions with. 

Between now and the Gameweek 2 deadline, we have EFL Cup matches for Newcastle, West Ham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, West Brom, Fulham, Southampton, Leeds, Everton, Sheffield United, Wolves and Brighton – and Spurs are in Europea League action too. 

As far as I am concerned, each of these is another chance to evaluate a team and the busy schedule is another reason to wait until Thursday or Friday before making my transfers.

These midweek fixtures could all throw up potential injuries that could force FPL managers into another transfer, or even an unwanted points-hit if moves have already been made. I hate doing this, so I will remain as patient as possible.

But just because I want to take this approach with transfers, does not mean I won’t be making any at all. At this stage, I am not ruling out changes for Gameweek 2.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

I planned to start the season with a Manchester United asset on my bench so that I was ready for their Gameweek 2 match against Crystal Palace. However, in the build-up to the Gameweek 1 deadline, there were doubts around Marcus Rashford’s (£9.5m) fitness, Bruno Fernandes‘ (£10.5m) potential need for quarantine, as well as uncertainty surrounding Mason Greenwood (£7.5m) in light of an ongoing Jadon Sancho transfer saga, and the youngster’s antics while on international duty with England. The number of unknowns surrounding Manchester United assets meant I did not feel comfortable deciding who to own a whole week ahead of their opening game of the campaign.

Coupling this dilemma with the high ownership of other similarly-priced assets convinced me to go with Son for a home meeting with Everton. This was a decision which, on paper, felt like the right one. Spurs had not lost a Premier League match against Everton since December 2012. Well, now the Toffees’ last victory against them came as recently as… last weekend. Even though Son has previously represented a viable investment, his wider role in Jose Mourinho’s team continues to disappoint the South Korean’s Fantasy owners, just as it did during Project Restart.

That said, Son was always in my team as something of a cash-cow, ready and waiting to be upgraded to a Manchester United asset at some point. Is Gameweek 2 too early to pull the trigger on such a move? This was something I was happy to consider before kick-off on opening day, on reflection, I am even happier to do now. But with so many players failing to impress in Gameweek 1, the difficulty comes in deciding who my priority transfers are.

'Out of position' Zaha scores as £4.0m defender Mitchell aids Palace clean sheet

Crystal Palace surprised me in their 1-0 win over Southampton. They were stronger defensively than we saw at the end of last season, Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) is playing up-front as an out-of-position FPL midfielder and new signing Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) impressed me when he came on for a nine-minute cameo. 

But I am making sure I remember this: all of my potential moves will be on hold until after midweek action. The last thing I want is to use a transfer, only to see someone else in my squad injured in the EFL Cup or Europa League.

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Sam FPLFamily <p>Fantasy Football Scout's General Manager. Half of the FPLFamily. Pundit on the FPL Pod, Fantasy Show and Sky Sports News&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

2,806 Comments Post a Comment
  1. some witty pun
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which move here to make?

    A) TAA/Robbo -> Digne (Everton's fixtures are good)
    B) Saliba -> 4.5 Defender (Saliba likely to drop 0.1)

    1. Sanchit
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A with TAA.
      I'm thinking the same. Also gives 1.5 to upgrade ASM.
      But I'll personally look to bring him back as soon he is back to his best and starts taking taking corners and set pieces again.

  2. GOATMEAT
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Alli -> James Rodriguez for -4?

    Not convinced with Spurs whereas Everton faces West Brom at home...

    1. I am 42
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Do you think the latter will score 4 more than the former?

      I'm thinking of C Adams to DCL

      1. GOATMEAT
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Probably so yes that answers the question... Spurs has to travel to Europa league match on Thursday too so a bit congested and they looked tired.

        DCL could be a nice move too but my strikers are sealed.

        1. klopptimusprime
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          I just did Ings and Alli to Martial and James for a hit,

          Want to get away from Alli (price drop and minutes) ASAP and don't want to go without UTD

    2. Sanchit
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd hold Alli and give him another match or two.
      Tottenham fixtures in the long run look too good

      1. HODGE
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        So many better options than Alli he is terrible

  3. Littlefish92
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Bruno for son

    Egan to a 4 mil

    Worth a 4 point hit ?

    Not sure how will get Bruyne and Bruno otherwise?

    1. some witty pun
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd rather just do Son -> Rashford if you could

    2. Sanchit
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      You'd have to post your full team for us to tell you other ideas.

  4. Camino Aleatorio
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    PANNNNNIC TIME!

    (1) Ramsdale is no Henderson!
    (2) Werner is a German Giroud!
    (3) Mount is clearly better than Kai!
    (4) Salah is going to score 40 goals!
    (5) Ings is back to being a pumpkin!
    (6) Che Adams is only fit to sell concessions in EPL games!
    (7) Sheffield defense has been figured out!
    (8) ASM will only score when I bench him!
    (9) VVD has turned to Louvren over the summer!
    (10) Spurs will be between West Spam and Fulham in the league table by week 38.
    (11) Everton is Europe bound!
    (12) if you add Doherty, Alderweireld, Dier, and Bavies as athletes - they are 1/2 the man of Adama Traore. They could not outrun or out jump Alexis Sanchez (the MU version)!
    (13) Vardy is going score 30 goals without ever getting a shot in the box - can’t spell Vardy without “VAR”

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nice mate, gave me quite a laugh. 🙂

    2. Soto Ayam
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Time to activate catastrophy chip then

    3. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Love this. Panic at its best.

    4. Azathoth
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      LOL

  5. Wakanda
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Repost due to bottom. Appreciate all your valuable feedbacks

    Pulisic and Alli out for ?
    Total 16.5m

    -4 options

    1) KDB 11.5 + 5m XX
    2) Sterling 11.5 + 5m XX
    3) Bruno 10.5 + 6m XX
    4) Rashford 9.5 + 7m XX

    Or save the -4
    5) Ali out for 5m XX and then Pulisic out for City/Man u player next week
    6) Pulisic out for 5m XX and then Alli out for City/Man u player next week

    Which would you prefer ?

    1. some witty pun
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Wait for Chelsea presser? Pulisic could be back

      1. Wakanda
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        if pulisic is back...do you mean i dont try to get any city/man u players till GW3 ?

  6. Dougie Jones
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone watch the full Wolves game? How did Podence play & Marcal play? If the former nails his starting position he could be bargain player of the season

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      If Podence can nail down a place. He looks like a fantastic pick.

      1. Najoman86
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Podence definitely one for the watch list.

  7. Make United Great Again
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A. TAA & Coleman

    B. Digne & VVD.

    1. some witty pun
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

      1. Make United Great Again
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks

    2. ace3.1415
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A, but change to Saiss or James

      1. Make United Great Again
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Interesting. Everton have some great fixtures. As do Wolves after City tbf. Cheers

  8. ace3.1415
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Ings > Martial
    B) Barnes > Rodriguez
    C) Both (-4)
    D) Save FT

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

  9. spamking
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How does this Wildcard team look, have already played it. Would love some feedback. My plan was to always WC early to beat the price increases. Will grab KDB/Sterling next week for Aub

    McCarthy
    Digne. Shaw. Lampty.

    Aub(C). Salah. Bruno. James. Phillips.

    Martial. DCL.

    Bench: Ayling, Mitchell, Fodder

    1. ace3.1415
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Phillips is DM

    2. Sanchit
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I would not go with McCarthy as my keeper if WC now.

      3 premium mids where you'd just captain one of them seems like a waste of money.
      You'll anyway get rid of Auba after this week I suppose?
      Keep Auba for this week and then switch him to Salah?

      Phillips is CDM, wouldn't consider him.

      DCL had xG of 0.06 and had no shots apart from the goal. Richarlison/James looked much better options from Everton

  10. Pranav Santhosh
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Repost
    Schmeichel
    VVD Soyuncu Tarkowski Egan
    KDB Willian Grealish Mount
    Vardy Abraham

    Martinez Mcburnie Coady Henderson

    1FT 0.0ITB

    What’s the plan going forward with this team? Probably save FT then mini wc in gw3? Ideally don’t want to use the wildcard so early. It’s a friends team and I don’t even know where I’d begin in terms of helping him with a plan or advice so any help would be appreciated.

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Thats "one season too late" team. This is something to consider for WC.

      1. Pranav Santhosh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah was afraid this would be the answer. Surprisingly scored 65 points this week but structure is out of whack

  11. troller
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Greenwood/wilson or martial/asm

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Tony and Maxim

  12. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Back to the idea of double pool defence

    4.5 4.0
    TAA Robbo Digne Saiss 4.0
    KDB Bruno Hames Foden Podence
    Martial DCL 4.5

    Thoughts?

    1. Jafalad
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not a fan. There are so many premium mids about that you need three of them imo.

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Don't like the look of the rest of the team with 3 premiums in there. Can only captain one!

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          This is true

    2. Azathoth
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nice team,lacks Che attackers,but can't have'em all.

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Staying away for now. Wasn't impressed. Cheers.

    3. The Red Devil
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Really? Liverpool's performance vs Leeds made you switch to double Liverpool defence?

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        They will improve defensively imo. And Trent and Robbo are getting attacking returns!

    4. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I don't like DCL Foden Podence picks.
      Would definitely get a Chelsea attacker in. Pulisic if fit should easily slot IMO.
      GL 🙂

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers Amey, appreciated!

  13. Daniel CV
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    would you go son to james rodriguez given spurs dodgy attack and everton's sick form

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      It's not a bad transfer based on gw1, but Spurs have two good fixtures next.

  14. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any good 5m mid options after the first gw besides soucek? Thinking alli and mitro > martial and 5m mid.

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Hendrick did well but not sure where he fits in when Fraser plays.

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers. Thoughts on jorginho/ phillips?

        1. Pukki Party
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Personally i kind of skip the 5.0-5.5 midfielder options, so not sure i'm the one to answer. Wouldn't be surprised if that was Jorginhos only returns in a few gameweeks, don't know anything about Phillips.

          1. SpaceCadet
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Cheers. Might just do alli > greenwood/ jrod for free.

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not exactly. Almost the same as 4.5 bracket. Rather take one of them and save 0.5

  15. Pukki Party
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts? Good gw1, question mark on Vinagre and Nketiah, but ideally want to have 2ft next week so i can get KdB/Fernandes for free. Nketiah for one more week, then plan is to do Nketiah, Son to cheap fwd, KdB.

    Johnstone
    TAA Robbo Justin
    Salah Son Pulisic Greenwood
    Jimenez Richarlison Nketiah

    Button Mitchell Bissouma Vinagre

    1. Sanchit
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Captain this week?

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Salah i think.

  16. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Are KDB and Bruno sure to rise before the deadline?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Both will rise tomorrow

  17. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is Mitro expected to start this gw? Was his benching in the first game because of the internationals he played or tactical?

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I think it was mostly because of the international matches.

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Hope so, thanks

    2. Najoman86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Would exist him to start. Big shift for Serbia in the nation's league just prior to the season opener did him a disservice

      1. Najoman86
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        *expect

    3. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Slight injury last week.

  18. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy
    TAA Egan Justin Ayling
    Salah Auba Havertz
    Werner Richarlison Mitrovic

    4.0; Saiss, Bissouma, Reed

    Havertz looked awful yesterday. I really think swapping him to Rodriguez would be a great move. Thoughts?

    1. Sanchit
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd do that!
      Everton look good for the next 5 fixtures.

  19. Sanchit
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Che Adams to Richarlison
    B) ASM to James Rodriguez

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B is better all tough I really like Richarlison as well

  20. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy nyland
    TAA Egan Mitchell Justin Johnson
    Salah Aubameyang ASM Alli Bissouma
    Werner Martial Adams

    0.0 ITB

    save? Alli to someone?

    1. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Definitely save

  21. Scrumper
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Alli & KWP -> Foden & Digne worth a hit?

    1. HODGE
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Rosen won't start

      1. Scrumper
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Because of covid measures? Or cos you don't think he's in pep's preferred teamsheet?

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not for me

  22. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Salah + Antonio -> Bruno + Martial
    C) Salah -> Bruno

    Hit or no hit?

    1. HODGE
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Why you getting rid of salah?

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        A little thing called upside chasing 😉

    2. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      It comes down to the chances of Martial scoring, with Antonio being a complete waste of space. Will he top Antonio's 2 points plus the 4 points for a hit against Palace? I'd give odds of less than 50%, myself.

  23. HODGE
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Foden won't lol

  24. troller
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on greenwood ?

    1. HODGE
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He's a great option ot sure he starts every week though

  25. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    67 points with 40 of them from Salah. Thanks God I captained him. 27 points from the other 10 players is not good!

    1. HODGE
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      74, 40 from salah basically Justin salah and auba everyone else blanked

    2. Azathoth
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      67 with Auba (c) and Mo (vc).....Don't worry mate,still 37 GWs to go.

  26. Squeakybum99
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Ings to Martial for free?
    or Kai + Ings to Bruno + DCL for -4?

    1. HODGE
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Tough both good options

      1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        A seems okay. B could work out but it's risky..

    2. Squeakybum99
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks lads. Leaning towards no hit.

  27. HODGE
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Werner Adams to dcl and martial for a hit?

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Could backfire big time..

    2. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Did you plan to have Werner and Adams for one week?

      1. HODGE
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        No lol. But dcl looks a great option with how good Everton looked and martial to Werner allows it as I have 0.5 in The bank. So was just a thought prob 2 risers for maybe 2 falls as Well so 0.4 swing

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Don't like it for a hit

    3. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keep Werner

  28. Manumana
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Do u think Alli will start GW2 ?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd answer that after seeing how they line up and perform on Thursday night in Bulgaria.

      1. Manumana
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Ok thx

  29. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Havertz & Ings to Rodriguez & Martial for -4?

  30. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    son price gonna drop?