Pro Pundits - Sam

Why I’m being patient with my FPL transfers after a disappointing Gameweek 1

Fantasy Premier League managers should exercise patience, even after a difficult Gameweek 1 for some.

It can be easy to make rash transfer decisions after one round of matches, but, if I do transfer anyone out, I will be doing it after much consideration in the cold light of day, and ensuring the change is made after upcoming midweek matches.

The gap between the first two Gameweeks is one of my favourite times of an FPL season. Blank Gameweek clubs aside, we now have a full set of data from the first round of fixtures, as well as a first look at the teamsheets for each club.

That has given us more information to rely on in terms of owning the right £4.0m defenders and £4.5m midfielders, as well as the right premium assets. 

At this stage, it would be very easy to panic. There are several big decisions to be made, even after just one Gameweek in the history books.

As I write this, Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) is owned by 33.9% managers worldwide, 66% of them are perhaps wondering how to fit the Egyptian King into their squads, or how to hold their nerve for one more week – and there is the return of both Manchester clubs to contend with.

Meanwhile, there were many in the Fantasy community planning to sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) ahead of Gameweek 3, but his goal and Arsenal’s performance at Fulham could make such a move harder than some might have imagined. Up next, the Gunners face a West Ham side that looked off-colour against Newcastle, so Aubameyang could conceivably be heading into Gameweek 3 on the back of two decent scores.

With so many of the dilemmas featuring the most expensive players in the game, Aubameyang, Salah and the Manchester assets, I am expecting chaotic FPL transfers this week, with plenty of price changes.

Ahead of Gameweek 2, the market comes into its own as managers make early moves to bring in players and avoid price rises. 

On Saturday, 10,000 brave souls sold Salah before he had even kicked a ball against Leeds. A further 1,000 of them jettisoned him during the game itself, an outing in which he scored a hat-trick and registered a 20-point haul. 

By half-time at Craven Cottage, Aubameyang was the sixth-most transferred-in, as well as being the third-most transferred-out player. Elsewhere, Son Heung-min (£9.0m) had suffered the loss of 3,000 managers by the time Crystal Palace hosted Southampton Saturday, despite not playing until the following afternoon.

A lot of this early chopping and changing of other managers does make it hard to stick to your strategy. In such circumstances, it is easy to second-guess yourself constantly, worried about being priced out of your must-have transfer.

There is no way to win FPL, or indeed lose it, during the opening couple of Gameweeks… but you can destroy your strategy by panicking and overthinking. 

The whole of pre-season was spent formulating a team that we believed would be the right one for the beginning of the campaign, not just for Gameweek 1. 

Players such as Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.5m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m), Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Danny Ings (£8.5m) are not, all of a sudden, bad options because they blanked in Gameweek 1. These are the sort of players who showed last season that they can often return points.

Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) is a prime example of how luck can play a part in Fantasy. He managed just three penalty box touches at West Bromwich Albion, two of which were spot-kicks, which he converted. The Leicester man did not pass the eye test at all, yet he ended up as one of the highest-scoring forwards of the Gameweek. Sometimes the luck is with you, as was the case with Vardy owners in Gameweek 1, and sometimes it’s not. This trend will continue to oscillate throughout the course of the season, so do not be too easily disheartened. Premium assets are expensive for a reason and luck can turn in a heartbeat.

As for myself, owning Salah and Aubameyang for this opening weekend was a good decision; the rest of my players were complete let-downs. 

Like many of you, I am tempted to remove some players who failed to deliver in Gameweek 1. I could switch Che Adams (£6.0m) to Patrick Bamford (£5.5m) or Saint-Maximin to Daniel Podence (£5.5m), for example. However, these sorts of rash transfer decisions, based only on frustration and data from just one match, nearly always do more harm than good in the long-term.

During the build-up to Gameweek 1, I had a plan for my transfers and I intend to stay true to it. My FPL management style is the opposite of an upside-chaser. I am loyal to my FPL assets, I like to hold and roll transfers and give myself as much thinking time and data as possible to make my decisions with. 

Between now and the Gameweek 2 deadline, we have EFL Cup matches for Newcastle, West Ham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, West Brom, Fulham, Southampton, Leeds, Everton, Sheffield United, Wolves and Brighton – and Spurs are in Europea League action too. 

As far as I am concerned, each of these is another chance to evaluate a team and the busy schedule is another reason to wait until Thursday or Friday before making my transfers.

These midweek fixtures could all throw up potential injuries that could force FPL managers into another transfer, or even an unwanted points-hit if moves have already been made. I hate doing this, so I will remain as patient as possible.

But just because I want to take this approach with transfers, does not mean I won’t be making any at all. At this stage, I am not ruling out changes for Gameweek 2.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

I planned to start the season with a Manchester United asset on my bench so that I was ready for their Gameweek 2 match against Crystal Palace. However, in the build-up to the Gameweek 1 deadline, there were doubts around Marcus Rashford’s (£9.5m) fitness, Bruno Fernandes‘ (£10.5m) potential need for quarantine, as well as uncertainty surrounding Mason Greenwood (£7.5m) in light of an ongoing Jadon Sancho transfer saga, and the youngster’s antics while on international duty with England. The number of unknowns surrounding Manchester United assets meant I did not feel comfortable deciding who to own a whole week ahead of their opening game of the campaign.

Coupling this dilemma with the high ownership of other similarly-priced assets convinced me to go with Son for a home meeting with Everton. This was a decision which, on paper, felt like the right one. Spurs had not lost a Premier League match against Everton since December 2012. Well, now the Toffees’ last victory against them came as recently as… last weekend. Even though Son has previously represented a viable investment, his wider role in Jose Mourinho’s team continues to disappoint the South Korean’s Fantasy owners, just as it did during Project Restart.

That said, Son was always in my team as something of a cash-cow, ready and waiting to be upgraded to a Manchester United asset at some point. Is Gameweek 2 too early to pull the trigger on such a move? This was something I was happy to consider before kick-off on opening day, on reflection, I am even happier to do now. But with so many players failing to impress in Gameweek 1, the difficulty comes in deciding who my priority transfers are.

'Out of position' Zaha scores as £4.0m defender Mitchell aids Palace clean sheet

Crystal Palace surprised me in their 1-0 win over Southampton. They were stronger defensively than we saw at the end of last season, Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) is playing up-front as an out-of-position FPL midfielder and new signing Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) impressed me when he came on for a nine-minute cameo. 

But I am making sure I remember this: all of my potential moves will be on hold until after midweek action. The last thing I want is to use a transfer, only to see someone else in my squad injured in the EFL Cup or Europa League.

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Sam FPLFamily <p>Fantasy Football Scout's General Manager. Half of the FPLFamily. Pundit on the FPL Pod, Fantasy Show and Sky Sports News&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

2,806 Comments Post a Comment
  1. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Just looked at Chris McGowan's team and surprised he's having a shocker GW1 as well

  2. OPTA FPL
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Dier or Davies or best 5M defender (not Saiss & Gabriel)?

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Luke Shaw if he's 5.0 again

        1. TheBrazilianRonaldo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Except Shaw will get injured after 3 games and you’ll burn a ft to get rid

      • Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Reece James

    2. Quackadoodz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Anything to change urgently?

      Ryan (4.0 fodder)

      Digne, KWP, Justin (Mitchell, 4.0)
      Son, Salah, Zaha, (A)uba
      Werner, Mitro, DCL

      1.5 itb

      1. @persecuted_by_mods
          3 years, 6 months ago

          No, roll the transfer

          1. Quackadoodz
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Cheers

        • Addick
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Son to Bruno or Rashford

      2. pundit of punts
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Bottomed

        How does Ings + Mane > Martial + Salah for -4 sound? I think I need to correct the mane mistake quickly. Salah looked in great touch, has pens and price drops and rises for mane and Salah impending.

        Gives me -

        McCarthy
        Holding - Justin - Targett
        Salah - Aubameyang - Son - Havertz
        Martial - Richarlison - Wilson

        Steer - Bissouma - KWP - Mitchell

        Thoughts? 🙂

        1. HODGE
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Maybe havertz looked poor

        2. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          I dont mind this move, sound logic. Bit like getting an injection from the doctor - you dont like it but it has to be done and you'll be glad you did.

      3. KujaliaFC
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        What's the usual prognosis for a dead leg?

        Should I swap out Werner for Martial?

        1. Karan14
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          He'll be fine

        2. HODGE
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Could easily be on the benches he won't be able to train most of the week

        3. Pukki Blinders
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Severe one is up to 2 weeks. He will be fine though

        4. Lazaretti
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          He is fine if you can continue and play full game it's not that bad

      4. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Any changes needed, looking at Martial, Bruno, James Eve?

        McCarthy
        Trent, Egan, Robbo
        Auba C, Soucek, Son, ASM
        Vardy, Werner, Richarlison

        Steer, Mitchell, Reed, Burr

        .5

        1. Rolls-Royce
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Looks good to save the transfer.

      5. Rolls-Royce
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Team looks something like this after the pending Alli-> Rodriguez transfer. Trying to hold off WC as long as possible this season.

        Ryan
        TAA Davies Justin
        Salah Auba Rodriguez Soucek
        Martial Werner Adams

        Steer Bissouma KWP Mitchell.

        0.5 inb

        1. Eat my goal!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Looks gtg

          1. Rolls-Royce
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            cheers mate

        2. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          All good

      6. Eat my goal!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Taa no longer essential?

        1. HODGE
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          No one is essential all season

        2. TheBrazilianRonaldo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          If I go what I thought pre-season, it is that Liverpool need to play their way back into form, TAA included. I’ve got him cause I caved from group-think and he is in the shadow of Saiss, Justin and James this week

      7. Kabayan
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        in your opinion, which one will get more points?
        A. Martial + Hames
        B. DCL + Bruno

        1. Sanchit
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          A

      8. G_P
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        when will the FFS H2H League be updated chat?

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Takes a while given thousands of teams.

          1. G_P
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            So can I leave the league now? as they've mentioned in the FFS H2H League article.

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Make sure you are in a division/league to be sure.

              1. G_P
                • 5 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                This is my first time in FFS H2H League. Better I'll stay in league so that my entry is taken. Thank you.

      9. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Is Ferguson a better 4.0 option than Mitchell at Palace once the nice fixtures arrive in GW5?

        1. Sanchit
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Yes. Mitchell will be benched once PvA returns.
          Ferguson is rumoured to be a sure starter if fit.

        2. Rolls-Royce
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Too early to worry about those stuff imo

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            On WC so want to choose the right one for down the line

            1. Warby84
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              I looked as I’m in WC but on red flag so not worth it!! I’ll stick with Mitch for now

              1. Eat my goal!
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                You really want to have that transfer for future

                1. Warby84
                  • 8 Years
                  3 years, 6 months ago

                  Bench fodder so will rarely play

                  1. Eat my goal!
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    3 years, 6 months ago

                    So get the injured player who has more longevity

                    Alternatively pick buur and hope he breaks through

            2. Old Man
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              You're on a WC already? Gulp.

      10. JurgenRodgers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Son/Doherty - Bruno/Lewis -4?

        Thoughts please

      11. Raybigblue
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Had to wildcard no options

        please rate ,going to gamble on Lpool defence until bank money builds up or a forward is down graded

        McCarthy nyland
        Digne James Holding Justin 4.0
        salah Hames KDB ASM ,Bissouma
        Werner Martial Richarlason

        Thanks

        1. HODGE
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Werner could be out and Liverpool is a tough game

        2. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Tempted by Martinez at Villa?

        3. Eat my goal!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          My WC team would be Something like

          Mcc 4.0
          Vvd saiss James/shaw/Cast Taylor ferg/buur
          Salah auba Bruno soucek Bisso
          Dcl martial Wilson

          Auba to Kdb gw3

        4. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Asm>klich

      12. TheBrazilianRonaldo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I don’t fancy West Ham or Spurs. Midfield looks a bit inflexible to get to value mids. 4 big players so I guess value ppm is upfront

        1. TheBrazilianRonaldo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Reply fail

      13. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thoughts on this move?

        Davies, havertz and antonio to ayling Bruno and dcl - 8

        Could pay back instantly perhaps?

        Mccarthy steer
        Taa davies shaw (vinagre ferguson)
        Salah auba havertz asm (biss)
        Werner antonio Adams

        Thanks

        1. Flynny
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Ignore.....going mad...can't afford

      14. Vazza
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Which one of the following looks good -

        A. Ings to Jimenez (for free)

        B. Ings to Martial (for free)

        C. Havertz + Auba to Rashford + KDB (-4 hit)

        D. Dier to Saiss (for free)

        E. Do nothing and roll transfer

        1. Flynny
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          b

        2. grumpyman
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          E

        3. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          B or roll

      15. Hig1990
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Son & TAA to Bruno & Digne for s hit before bruno rise? Auba to KDB GW3

        McCarthy
        TAA, Davies, Justin, KWP, Ferguson
        Son, Salah, Auba, ASM, Bissouma
        Werner, Martial, Brewster
        £0.0 ITB

        1. TheBrazilianRonaldo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Is it not wc in transfers distorting figure?

          1. Hig1990
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Hmm yeah, probably is but equally, I dont want to miss out. Originally planned to shift Salah but can’t after that hatrick lol

        2. Flynny
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          could work. Risky tho

        3. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          No

      16. zLaTaN@uNiTeD
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Can anyone give me mark suthens team link?

        1. Eat my goal!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Page before

      17. Charan77
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Good morning

        Is it worth doing Werner to martial?

        Already have Adams and Kane.

        Thanks

        1. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          No.

          1. Charan77
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Why not?

      18. sergioaguero67
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Luke Shaw to start?
        Please help

        1. @persecuted_by_mods
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Yes

        2. kobewan
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Ryan McCarthy

          TAA-Justin-B. Davies-KWP(Vinagri)
          Auba-Hames-Salah-Son(Bissouma)
          Werner-Mitro-(K.Davis)

          tweak or wait?

          1. The Knights Template
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Wait

        3. Botman and Robben
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Does the Werner injury look serious?

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            No

          2. Shineonme
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Didn't look bad but I'm still doing werner > Martial. Never know how bad the injury is plus chelsea have a tough game and also Chelsea have good option replacements up front if they don't want to risk werner and Man utd have a nice home game against Palace. Thats my thinking on it anyway. I need a Man utd player and thats my only rout to one without 4-

        4. Weeb Kakashi
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Alli Ings> Richarlison Rashford (-4)??

          Have DCL

          1. @persecuted_by_mods
              3 years, 6 months ago

              To me that's gonna backfire but everyone else on here is doing something similar so up to you

          2. Nailed Jesus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Havertz & Ings to:
            a) Bruno & Wilson
            b) Martial & Hames

            1. The Knights Template
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              A

          3. Fodderx4
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Morning all. Happy with my team and start but have 1 issue. What hat do with Saliba? I have a good enough bench to cover but worried that he drops before the deadline and that. 1 can cause issues with other transfers. I wanted to save a transfer and already have Bruno and Taylor so have United cover.
            a) keep and save a transfer
            b) sell for Mitchell and save .5
            c) transfer to Holding (is he nailed?)
            d) transfer to Justin or another 4.5, who?
            Thanks.

            1. Pukki Blinders
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Moving to Mitchell or Holding, or even Justin, will cause another transfer in 1-2 weeks time. Why would a 4.5 defender dropping affect your transfer plans anyway?

            2. Ninjaa
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              If you've got a good team for this week keep it and have 2 fts next week.

            3. The Knights Template
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              A, you'll make some $$, you'll lose some $$. Don't waste a trade on this.

          4. Pukki Blinders
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Jimi or Martial?

            1. The Knights Template
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Jimi

          5. Ninjaa
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Front 3 of vardy Werner Adams. Was planning Vardy to Martial this gw but now im seriously considering Werner to Martial and giving him the armband. Thoughts please guys???????

            1. Pompel
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              That's a tricky one. Hearing that Vardy looked poor apart from the penalties, so probably still him for Martial.

            2. The Knights Template
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Vardy had 3 touches in the box and 2 were penalties. Vardy to Martial, Sir Madfincha!

              1. Old Man
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                Didn't your enjoy our 48 year old scoring twice then?

                1. The Knights Template
                  • 10 Years
                  3 years, 6 months ago

                  Touche, Old Man, touche!

          6. Old Gregg
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Hello,

            McCarthy
            Dier-Taa- Taylor-Egan
            Harertz-Ali*-Auba
            Adams-Werner-martial

            Soucek-Biss-Mitchell

            Which move please

            a) Ali > Hames Rod
            B) harvertz > H Rod
            C) Ali + H > H Rod + Bruno (-4)
            D) any recommendations?

            1. HVT
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              C

            2. Pukki Blinders
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              H Rod that's a new one... A

          7. Ahtikullervo
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Half of my team failed miserably:

            Vinagre 0
            Bednarek 1
            Mitrovic 1
            Soucek 2
            McCarthy 2
            Havertz 2
            Foden no game
            Fernandes no game
            Steer no game

            Thank God there was another half of team and 102 points from GW1 is ok.

            1. The Knights Template
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Just terrible post, terrible. Dont be afraid to boast loudly when you do well.

          8. HVT
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Havertz/Doherty > Bruno/Taylor -4?

            McCarthy
            (TAA/Doherty/Ayling/Justin/Mitchell)

            Is Taylor the best 4.5 for me?

            Thanks

            1. The Knights Template
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Man, I'd be keeping Doherty