Football Index

Why fixture difficulty can be important in Football Index


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The new season is already underway, as is my debut campaign betting on Football Index (FI).

As mentioned previously, I’m going to be dipping my toe into the potentially lucrative FI waters all year, hoping to build a modest budget into something a little showier.

We ran over the basic rules of the game in that first article, so today I’m going to start looking a bit deeper into how I might be successful betting on the football stockmarket.

One other thing of note is Premier League bias. We will mostly be looking at Premier League players this season so we can tie FI coverage into our FPL content.

However, FI runs across five major European leagues – England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France – as well as the two UEFA club competitions, so we’ll be removing our Little Englander blinkers from time to time, and especially when there’s a player or Euro event that just can’t be ignored.

And so onwards to…

Will Cheap = Cheerful?

At the most basic level, betting and trading in shares requires you to buy low and sell high.

With that in mind, a good place to start looking for FI bargain bets is among the unknowns, either in terms of their overall (lack of) celebrity among football fans or as a first-time Premier League performer.

In other words, who will be this season’s Teemu Pukki?

Well, first up it’s wise to remember that a breakthrough striker from the Championship is not an every-season phenomenon. Don’t try to force players into pre-conceived narratives. Instead, discover the narrative that fits a player.

Last season, in FPL, that included both Pukki’s early goals and the out-of-position delights of John Lundstram.

This term, my eyes are being drawn to Leeds United.

Manager Marcelo Bielsa is not nicknamed ‘El Loco’ because of his singular devotion to steam trains, so it’s highly unlikely the Whites are going to be shunted into the sidings of dull irrelevance, to mix a metaphor or two.

There’s a feeling of all or nothing about him and his team. They could crash and burn, or they could win hearts, minds and a fine haul of points with a heady mix of high pressing at home and counter-attacks on the road.

Record signing Rodrigo Moreno has already caught my eye – mainly because he’s currently available for about one quid a share. For context, the most expensive player in FI at present is a certain Borussia Dortmund youngster available for well over £14.

Should Moreno quickly find his feet in a Leeds team with, it must be said, a tricky opening set of games, then the striker’s value is not going to stay so wonderfully low.

‘Should’ is doing all the heavy lifting in the previous sentence, mind, so we shall see.

The Fixtures ‘N’ Form Boys

If Leeds’ early schedule is not the easiest, there’s always another team with a brighter immediate outlook.

That leads me on to an FI tactic probably the closest to standard FPL practice – pinpoint a player with a great schedule and tap into it, and them.

With FI, the upsides of this are many.

As well as getting in-play dividends (see below) early doors, they’re in with a chance of the usual match day and team of the month bonuses.

And, if they’re doing the business consistently, they’re also likely to feature heavily in the press, which opens up opportunities to win media dividends on a daily basis.

Success should also breed success, with more fellow managers buying into your prescient pick and bumping up his overall value.

Chelsea have one of the kindest opening set of fixtures, with ‘opening’ here meaning ‘all the way through to Christmas’. Of the biggest teams in the league, Frank Lampard’s men will face only Liverpool (at home) and Man United (away) across their first 14 matches, running into the dim and distant future that is December 19.

Tapping into the wealth of Chelsea’s attacking options seems wise, therefore, with their most expensive FI asset, a certain new striker from the Bundesliga, setting you back close to £6 a share.

Their other major summer transfer business involved Hakim Ziyech, who looked good in the pre-season game at Brighton before succumbing to a knee injury. That has knocked quite a bit of value off him, so he could be worth a look at the mid-£3 mark if he recovers sooner rather than later.

Another team with a great initial schedule is Manchester United.

As you might expect, there’s a lot of money tied up in their key assets, but at around £3 a share, a certain French striker looks well-priced.

If he can continue last season’s fine form – he was United’s leading scorer in FPL with 200 points – then he looks under-valued, particularly with Champions League football to further sweeten the deal.

In-play dividends

This is the closest FI comes to an FPL-style short-term bet.

Some managers might buy a player in for a specific Gameweek. That’s some managers. It’s rare and, presumably, not overly successful, but many of us have eyed up an asset with a good run of, say, four fixtures before things turn nastier further down the line.

FI pays out in-play dividends to all players you bet for the 30 days following that purchase.

It is, potentially, a canny way to win in the short term. How long you keep these players after that initial burst of potential profit is, as ever, the key to longer-term success.

Again, Man United’s early run looks so tempting – Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal should be their toughest tests in the first 11 matches, and all three of those are at Old Trafford.

Tapping into that schedule across the first 30 days of a bet could be lucrative if you buy a United player at the right time (and price, obviously).

Make a bet, for example, just before the early October home game with Spurs, and you’ll have opportunities to win in-play dividends from both domestic and Champions League football.

GET STARTED WITH FOOTBALL INDEX HERE

But don’t forget, this is gambling with real money, so always gamble responsibly: https://www.begambleaware.org/. 18+.



FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 1

GET IN-GAME DATA AT LIVE FPL

Check your own rank and in-play FPL stats on LiveFPL.net every Gameweek

671 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    WBA the weakest team this year and likely to take the most spankings ?

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      WBA, Fulham, and West Ham

      1. SuperG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Totally agree

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Fulham & WHU will enjoy few of those too.

    3. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Between them and Fulham. West Ham also going to take a few with that fixture list and defense

    4. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yes Fulham too, i think Fulham & WBA are a step below the rest and both could be the Norwich of last year.

      I think teams could tactically unpick the Leeds press too and score goals against them - its a high risk high reward tactic

      1. Invincibles
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Leeds will be comfortable

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          I think Leeds will be good against the poorer teams and bully the likes of Newcastle, Palace, Brighton etc ... but may concede a lot of goals against teams with better and more skilful players that can pass around them

  2. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) havertz martial
    B) rashford ings

  3. bootsmanus
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    On 79 point now. Should I do:

    A) Trent + Son to Bruno + Digne for -4
    B) Bowen to Foden for FT
    C) Stick and save FT

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Stick imo

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C

    3. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Live a little 😉
      A

      1. bootsmanus
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        It is very tempting haha!

    4. 2999 - Lady of Legend
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C. Defo

    5. NIKO.
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C

    6. bootsmanus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C it is.

  4. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Do only Ings to Martial or worth going for Bruno - Son Ings and Bruno DCL ??
    DCL looking good considering the Everton's fixtures.

  5. Where dahoud at
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Defs happy with this team now, took a - 4 to get martial and james Rodriguez in, and I thank its worth it, my defence ain't great but that front 7 is unreal

    Mccarthy
    Taa, egan, kwp
    Asm, Rodriguez, Salah, Abumayang
    Werner, martial, mitrovic

    Bench, nyland, Vinagre, Gordon, Douglas

  6. grooveymatt65
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hi guys got a question.

    A friend has taken a -8 and wants to know if he uses a wildcard this week, will that wipe off the -8?

    thanks

    1. Ole.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A friend lol, yea will

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      It will yes

    3. grooveymatt65
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      seriously it was a mate i swear hahaah

  7. YuvalFPL
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    meh... 41 points.

    how reliable is fplstatistics for price changes?

    I have mane, saliba, vinagre & dele. which are all expected to drop either today or tomorrow.

    KDB, mitchell, martial I all want and are due a price rise. would probably bring justin in too.

    would prefer to WC gameweek 3 and 4 but all these price rises are making me reconsider... thoughts?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      FPLstats is pretty reliable but it struggles when lots of WCs are active as they likely are this week.

  8. JorisLa
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Ings --> Martial

    B) Ings & Alii --> Bruno & DCL

    C) Nothing

    1. International Richard
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Sensible - A

      Feel B is worth considering long term. -4 will be earned back providing you to wild-card GW3. If you do, don’t lose -4 this week

  9. Gunner1290
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Mccarthy
    Trent James Niles Justin
    Salah auba(c) SaintMaxim Son Pulisic
    Werner

    (Button Mitchell Davis Brewster)

    Would you make any transfers here? I’m thinking Son- Bruno and Werner-DCL?

  10. Amey
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    People are going mad making transfers looking at price changes rather than actual needs 😀

    Will see a lot of early WC this season i guess.

    1. Mighty Banana
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Wait, my FT shouldn't be used on the person just about to go up?

      1. fr3d
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Majority of us professionals got Bamford in last night

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          😎

        2. Mighty Banana
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          What about the new players who aren't showing any increase/decrease? Should we get them all in, just in case?

    2. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      The amount of flapping I've seen on here these last few days.... Even people who scored 70+ pts are looking into taking -4 hits.

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I'm one of them 😆

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Chill. Sort Pulisic out and you are golden

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Pulisic is going nowhere 😀

      2. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        70-80 is not great if 1 player has scored 40 points.

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Exactly

      3. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Points this week doesnt mean points next week or ur team is great. Salah papering a lot of cracks

        If people are told to stay patient and not do moves with a low score becuase their team looks good surely making changes when u have abgoodnscorenshd also be encouraged

        Wildcarded with 75 points

        1. Nightcrawler
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Haha when u have a good score***

  11. AdamJ91
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How's this looking atm?

    Johnstone
    TAA, Digne, Doherty, Tierney
    Auba, Salah, JWP
    Werner, DCL, Adams

    Steer, ASM, Bissouma, Ferguson.

    I know it looks heavy in defence but I will be using my WC either GW3/4.

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Reasons behind gw3/4 wc?

  12. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who is the most nailed Everton defender?

    1. Ole.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Digne

    2. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      *except Digne.

    3. Bullet Eder
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keane and Digne

    4. Barnabus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Digne

    5. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Prefer Wolves. 5.0m+ price point all of them.

    6. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Digne

  13. Bullet Eder
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which one would you start this week?

    A. Soucek (ars)

    B. C Taylor (lei)

    1. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      a

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Soucek

    3. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Soucek

    4. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm starting Soucek

  14. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hey everyone!!! Hope everyone is in good spirits!! Any advice on my team welcomed!! Easy save for this week?? Or Son out for Greenwood or James?? Or Son and Adams out for Greenwood and DCL?? Or Son and Werner to Martial and Rashford?? Cheers all!!
    Steer
    TAA Egan Lascelles
    Salah Aubameyang Son ASM
    Werner Adams Wilson
    McCarthy Bissouma KWP Saiss

    1. Mighty Banana
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Looks like you're actively looking for a transfer to make, just because you have one.

      Team looks fine, although a united player would be nice addition.

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Haha yeah that’s my impulse nature I guess mate!! And it’s only Tuesday!! Going to be a long week!! Thanks for your advice mate, would definitely like a United player for sure

  15. Captain_Shirokov
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What are Son owners doings?

    Holding or moving for United assets?

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Holding as I already have Bruno

    2. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I don't think Son looked that bad. And Southampton were all over the place defensively. I'm keeping for one more week

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah son probably the only spurs player that looked like getting something.

    3. Mighty Banana
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Holding, I brought in Son for the first 8 GW's.

      Don't understand why people picked him for a 1 week punt vs Everton.

      1. FPL-(VAR)dy
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        This.Eve along with Man U were the only difficult fixtures for Son in the first 8.
        So I d hold until Newcastle.If he blanks in all three I d assess.

  16. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which?

    A) ings to martial/richar
    B) ings ali -4 to dcl - rash
    C) ings ali -4 to martial - james rodriguez

  17. Ramsays Raw Steak
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    So werner is out next game?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nope will play

  18. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    When Pereira returns in a couple of weeks, will Castagne take Justin's place at LB?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Quite possibly

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Guess it will depend on the performances of both in the next 2 GWs

    3. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Prbably not

    4. Nightcrawler
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Will justin even keep his place over thomas....he was really bad on sunday

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Only bad in the first half. Played well in the second half.

  19. Firmino
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Would you do Ings -> Martial today or wait another day and risk the price rise?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No point waiting another day he will rise tonight

  20. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Would u keep Mitchell on a WC?

    He might rise to 4.2 and bank a profit for me but wont be nailed on pretty soon. Tough one

    1. FPL-(VAR)dy
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Is he rising any time soon?

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah shd rise to 4.1 before friday...next rise would only be if he starts the next game i think

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He won't get to 4.2 by GW2. I will prob swap to Ferguson who will be the better option longer term

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Not this week but if pva misses the next 2 he will get there. Ferguson still makes more sense tho

      2. Klaren
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Ferguson is unlikely to get starts any time soon. Hodgson doesn't put players straight into first team and with a younger player who hasn't played for more than 6 months, the process should take even longer.

    3. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I’m hoping so as it would mean KDB on WCGW3 but I doubt it. I’ll change my 4m defender regardless unless PVA has a flare up in recovery

  21. TAT
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which looks better?
    A.) Ings > Martial (FT)
    B.) Ings + Havertz > Martial + JRod (-4)
    C.) Ings + Havertz > DCL + Fernandes (-4)

    McCarthy
    TAA - Davies - Ayling
    Soucek - Havertz* - ASM - Aubameyang - Salah
    Ings* - Werner
    (Button - Mitchell - Vinagre - Vassiliev)

    1. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B is what I am looking at.

      1. TAT
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        It'a the most tempting option for me right now too, I think, given that you get some extra funds from downgrading Havertz.

  22. FPL-(VAR)dy
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What would you do ?
    I have Wilson and Saint Maximin. Happy with Wilson,not so much with ASM. Will give them GW 2.
    Supposing Wilson scores and ASM blanks again.

    Do I transfer out Wilson to Jimenez(have funds+fixtures turning)OR do I go and improve the weaker spot in my team in ASM?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Would upgrade ASM

      1. FPL-(VAR)dy
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I m weighing between do I want Jiminez in my team more or ASM out of it.

  23. Mondeo
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What on earth is this article? There must surely be better ways to monetize

  24. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Salah + Grealish/Barnes
    B) Bruno + Havertz

    1. FPL-(VAR)dy
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      What do you have currently?

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Currently have Salah and Havertz, but thinking on a Havertz + Antonio -> Grealish + Martial move as I want a United asset but also want to keep Salah

  25. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which?

    A) ings to martial/richar
    B) ings ali -4 to dcl - rash
    C) ings ali -4 to martial - james rodriguez
    D) ings ali -4 to greenwood - richar

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A or B

  26. 03farmboy
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Will Pulisic play against Liverpool?

    Or transfer him out for Willian or zaha

    1. FPL-(VAR)dy
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Hold FT

  27. have you seen cyan
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Toying with a WC,, why not 😀
    What do you think?

    Guaita
    Saiss - Digne - Lamptey
    Salah - KDB - Bruno - Elneny
    Jimi - Ings - DCL
    (Nyland, KWP, Bissouma, Mitchell)
    KWP and Lamptey rotate most weeks, altho some weeks I might play both due to havign to play someone in my last spot out of Elneny, Bissouma and KWP.

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Looks dreadful

  28. Syphras
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    In a great deal of turmoil over whether or not to play my WC.

    I've already made 1 change: Antonio -> Bamford before the price change.

    So now am sitting on
    McCarthy - Nyland
    TAA - KWP - Targett - Vinagre - Mitchell
    Aub - Son - Havertz - Barnes - Stephens
    Werner - Ings - Bamford

    Do you think I should stick or WC to:
    McCarthey - Nyland
    Robertson - Saiss - Justin - Mitchell - Struijk
    Aub(then Salah next week) - Sterling - Fernandes - Havertz - Jam.Rod
    DCL - Bamford - Davis

    Any help is much appreciated.

    1. Syphras
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Forgot to mention with my top team I have 2m ITB

  29. DavidFPL
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    my plan was always Salah and Antonio to Rashford and Martial but I just can't bring myself to take out Salah vs Kepa after seeing him against Brighton flailing his arms like a scared kid at every ball.
    Taking out a player who scored a hat-trick for -4 sounds so brain dead but it's the only way i can get united players.

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      There's no way that's the only way to get United players.

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keep. Don't think Utd will necessarily smash Palace anyway.

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Do you think United will thrash Palace?

      1. DavidFPL
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        yes, but also think just as easily Antonio could score against Arsenal and Salah could score vs Chelsea.
        Honestly if it wasn't for time spent on twitter and here Salah wouldn't have even started in my team and I'd convinced myself I'd just keep him as a one week punt before going United players.
        If i keep him this week I guess i'll be keeping him for the season or till wildcard.
        I really hate that United and City didn't play GW1.
        Response convinced me to save my transfer though so thanks all.

    4. Nightcrawler
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Whats ur team

    5. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      In the same boat, I’m looking for alternatives but still require a hit to ship off Antonio asap

      1. DavidFPL
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        WIll see who plays against Charlton tonight for more info.
        I have Mitrovic as well so really didn't enjoy week one.

  30. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who do I need to fix first?

    A) Alli
    B) Adams
    C) Mitro

    1. FPL-(VAR)dy
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No one.If Alli doesnt start the next game then I d think of Alli.
      Hold FT