Budget FPL assets shine for Leeds and Fulham but Bielsa highlights lack of creativity

I was so so tempted to wildcard today, and very nearly hit the trigger, but I decided that before I would, I’d write down a list of reasons why it might not be worth it to see if I could convince myself that saving might actually be better. It worked, and I’m actually feeling very comfortable not hitting the wildcard button now! Thought I’d share my thoughts, but please note they are somewhat focused on my own team! There are 20!

1. Joshua Bull (last year’s champion) did an extremely interesting and informative lecture in the lead up to GW1. A particularly insightful result showed that making transfers that focused on removing weak players from your team was preferable to transfers focused on getting in the most in form players from the last few weeks. Admittedly, his analysis wasn’t in the context of wildcards, but I imagine the general result still holds fairly true. I have noticed that my desire to wildcard this week has come mostly from a desire to own players I don’t have, rather than because my own players are really bad.

This brings me to SECTION I - my current team:

2. I spent hours and hours over the course of weeks building my team, and I believe the decision-making process was sound. Just because the players I own aren’t the ones who have scored the most points so far doesn’t mean they are terrible picks.

3. Che Adams can be considered very unlucky not to have scored so far this season, being denied by brilliant saves in both GW1 and GW2. He may be dropping in price, but I’ve seen enough to suggest that he can still be an excellent asset over the next few weeks.

4. My Man Utd assets (Martial, Fernandes, Shaw) performed woefully this week, and I do believe going so hard on them was a mistake. That said, Spurs looked utterly woeful last week and then put five past Southampton today. One game is not enough to judge whether Man Utd have turned into a rubbish team or if they just had an off day and the start of the season came too soon. Martial and Fernandes have shown over the course of last season that they can be excellent picks, so immediately ditching them feels extremely kneejerky. (I am likely to still do Fernandes —> Son this week though!)

5. James Justin has proven himself to be a superb pick over the first two weeks. If I were to wildcard, I would likely have to ditch him because my team would have to be set up extremely long-term, and Pereira’s return would force a future transfer. By waiting to wildcard, I get to hold on to Justin for a little longer!

6. The same thing can be said for Tyrick Mitchell. For now he is an excellent option, but I’d want to drop him on wildcard to avoid a future transfer when he loses his place. Waiting allows me to keep him for longer.

7. McCarthy, TAA, Salah, Rodriguez, Soucek, Rodriguez, Werner are all perfectly competent players that don’t really need replacing, which accounts for my whole team aside from ASM and Davies who can be fixed over the next couple of weeks with a hit or two.

Now lets move on to SECTION II - my wildcard team:

8. There are in general too many uncertainties! To start with, the transfer window is still open, and there could easily be some major transfers that force us to think differently.

9. For example, Rhian Brewster is looking likely to get a loan move. If he can become a regular starter at 4.5 for some club then he will be an absolute no brainer in my wildcard team, and would require a completely different structure to one where he’s looking like he won’t get minutes. Waiting allows me to work out whether I should get him in or not.

10. Getting one of Neto/Podence seems like a brilliant option on wildcard. Unfortunately, the signing of Semedo throws a lot of uncertainty on who if any of them will be nailed. Waiting a bit longer will allow me to see whether either of these become a nailed on option.

11. Reece James looks like a brilliant option if nailed. We don’t yet know whether that will be the case when both Azpi and Chilwell are fit, and if it turns out he isn’t nailed, then he’s not worth having. Waiting a bit longer would allow me to work out whether I want him.

12. DCL has looked excellent in the first two games and his someone I would definitely bring in if I was wildcarding. He has both form and fixtures, AND passes both the stats and eye tests. However, 2.5 of his 2.7 xGI came from that WBA fixture, and although Everton’s fixtures look reasonable on paper, I don’t believe any of the upcoming defences will offer up nearly as many chances. I also just don’t believe that DCL can have gone from a mediocre to a world class finisher overnight - it seems most likely to me that he will have improved on last year’s levels, but not to such an extent that his score has suggested in the first two gameweeks. I want to be clear that I think DCL is a superb option, but perhaps not as urgent a transfer as he might seem, particularly when I’m already content with my other three strikers (Werner, Martial, Adams).

13. Ferguson looks like the most nailed 4.0 option when he gets fit. Unfortunately, that seems a little while away! It would be ideal if I could minimise the length of time over the course of the season that my 4.0 defender wasn’t playing. Holding Mitchell until he gets dropped and then moving for Ferguson on wildcard allows me to do this.

14. Currently, Martinez looks like he’d be my bet for a set and forget 4.5 keeper on wildcard. Aside from Fulham, Villa’s next six fixtures really don’t look very clean sheet friendly. Waiting would allow me to avoid these fixtures, and potentially even decide that Martinez isn’t the best keeper to get and look elsewhere after gathering more info.

15. If I was wildcarding, I’d want a midfielder from Man City at the very minimum. At the moment, I don’t know who I would want, nor do I know anything about the potential nailedness of the likes of Foden and Mahrez. Waiting would allow me to make the correct choice between Sterling and De Bruyne after gathering more information, and decide whether any of the other assets are worth buying. Of course, getting on one of Sterling/KDB early has its advantages, but in my situation I think it’s a bit of a luxury, and I think getting the better option late is better than getting the wrong option early. Of course, if one of them looks essential, I can bring them in when appropriate without wildcarding!

16. I think Pulisic could be a tremendous option this season, and would most likely want him in my squad when he’s fully fit. Waiting to wildcard would save me a future planned transfer to bring him in.

17. I really like Lamptey. He went off with a knock today. It may be short term but waiting at least allows me to see if there are any lingering problems. (Yeah, I realise this one is a bit of a stretch!)

18. I really want a Wolves defender, but I can solve this problem with a transfer by selling Davies.

OK, finally lets looks at SECTION III - general advantages of saving the wildcard:

19. With a lot of people wildcarding this week, holding the wildcard gives me a card up my sleeve later on. The wildcard chip is extremely valuable, and if I can ride out the next few weeks without falling too far behind the crowd (which is definitely achievable) then I’ve got a big advantage later on, particularly if an even rainier day than today comes about.

20. There have been so many goals in the first two weeks of the season. Two weeks isn’t enough to determine whether this is a trend, or if it is just an anomaly, perhaps due to an unusually short pre-season with players just needing a couple of weeks to settle. The answer to this problem will affect how I’d structure my wildcard team, and how much I’d invest in the defence.

Ok. That’s it. 20 reasons why I’m holding back on the wildcard. Hope it was somewhat useful despite the excessive length! For context, my GW2 team is below:

McCarthy, Steer
TAA, Davies, Shaw, Justin, Mitchell
Salah, Fernandes, Jamez, ASM, Soucek
Werner, Martial, Adams

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