Spot the Differential

Jesus still offers reliable differential potential ahead of FPL Gameweek 3

After a disappointing start in Gameweek 1, we’re back on track having tipped Timothy Castagne (£5.6m) and Raheem Sterling (11.5m) last week.

This time, we’ve selected three differentials who are already off the mark this season, including two forwards who hit double figures last term, and a midfielder who we think is a viable alternative to community favourites Daniel Podence (£5.6m) and Phil Foden (£6.5m), without the rotation worries.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Gabriel Jesus

  • FPL ownership: 3.0%
  • Price: £9.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: LEI | lee | ARS | whu | shu

With Sergio Agüero (£10.4m) still recovering from a knee injury, Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) looks set for an extended run in Manchester City’s starting XI, which hands FPL managers a potentially explosive differential option.

Having undergone knee surgery back in June, Pep Guardiola confirmed last week that Agüero is yet to train with his team-mates and will require longer than other players to get back up to speed – potentially up to two months.

In his absence, Jesus will most likely be tasked with leading the line, and his statistics from last season highlight just how influential he can be. 

His 101 shots, 92 of which arrived inside the box, and 34 big chances ranked second amongst all forwards, while of those who played a significant number of minutes, only Agüero could improve on his 0.78 expected goals (xG) per90. Despite, at times, being wasteful in front of goal, it demonstrates his ability to consistently get into good shooting positions.

Jesus was on the scoresheet in Manchester City’s first match of the season in Gameweek 2, as he returned deep into injury time in a 3-1 win at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Interestingly, Guardiola paired Rodri (5.5m) and Fernandinho (5.5m) up at the base of his midfield, with Foden, Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), Sterling and Jesus in front in a flexible 4-2-3-1, and it worked rather well. The Brazilian’s link up play, work rate and physicality stood out, while his two shots in the box matched that of Foden and De Bruyne.

Currently owned by just 3.0% of FPL managers, Jesus is a big differential who can provide a medium-term solution till Agüero returns from injury.

Matheus Pereira

  • FPL ownership: 2.5%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: CHE | sou | BUR | bha | ful

Matheus Pereira (£6.0m) lit up the Championship last season, and finished the campaign with a total of eight goals and 16 assists.

116 chances created – more than any other player – and 111 shots over 42 appearances highlights his importance, but how will he fare in the Premier League?

Well, so far, pretty well, and it’s been a testing couple of weeks for newcomers West Bromwich Albion.

Already, Pereira has been involved in both of his side’s goals. He provided an assist for Grady Diangana’s (£5.5m) opener against Everton and also scored a superb free-kick in the same match. He also leads the way amongst team-mates for shots, chances created, final-third touches and take-ons, while offering multiple routes to points via set-pieces.

Last season, as the standout player in Albion’s attack, Pereira operated either as a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1 or out wide in a 4-3-3. However, this season, manager Slaven Bilić has mainly, and somewhat surprisingly, opted to use a back three system, which has seen the playmaker drift infield from his starting position on the right, with wing-back Daniel Furlong (£4.5m) offering width down that side. Whether or not this is a long-term solution, or simply to combat tough opposition, time will tell.

A Gameweek 3 home encounter at home to Chelsea is followed by a promising run of fixtures which sees the Baggies take on Southampton, Burnley, Brighton and Hove Albion and Fulham, and while this weekend’s matchup isn’t ideal, it’s worth pointing out the Blues have given up more chances down their left-side than any other zone in the opening two Gameweeks.

The likelihood is that West Brom will struggle this season, but if they can get Pereira on the ball often enough, they’re sure to create chances and score goals.

Chris Wood

using-the-top-10000-ownership-to-increase-your-fpl-rank-andys-article 7
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £6.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: SOU | new | wba | TOT | CHE

2019/20 was the third season in a row that Chris Wood (£6.5m) has scored double figures in the Premier League.

The focal point of Burnley’s attack hit 14 goals in 29 starts, while only three forwards in the entire division registered more than his 31 big chances.

What’s particularly impressive is that he accumulated those numbers off of a modest 65 shots on goal, of which 41 arrived at Turf Moor, where he thrived and scored 64% of his goals.

Having finished the season strongly with goals in each of his last three appearances, Wood has continued from where he left off, as he found the back of the net in The Clarets’ first match of the season at Leicester City, logging three shots in the box and a further two big chances.

Burnley’s tenth placed finish last term possibly hasn’t been talked about enough. After a run of four defeats around the New Year, they lost just twice in 16 games, one of which was against Manchester City, and the other on the final day of the season.

Looking ahead to the weekend, Wood could find some joy against Southampton if they continue with their high defensive line. The 28-year-old loves to operate on the shoulder of the last man in an attempt to stretch the game. It resulted him in being caught offside more times than any other player last season, which is something he discussed in a recent interview with The Athletic: “It really doesn’t bother me, getting caught offside, because I know that the one time that I don’t, I’ll be in on goal.”

The closer Wood is to goal, the more dangerous he becomes, and ahead of a home tie against a vulnerable Saints defence, is a tempting differential.

1,040 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Chung8
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    On WC A or B

    A)
    Martinez ( Nyland)
    TAA Robbo Lamptey Mitchell James
    KDB Son Hamez Podence Bissouma
    DCL Werner Ings

    B)
    Martinez ( Nyland)
    TAA Castagne James Saiss Mitchell
    KDB Son Hamez Podence Bissouma
    DCL Werner Jesus
    0.3 ltb

    1. LC1
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. Redhulkster
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    4. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

  2. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    On wildcard:

    A.....robbo and reece james

    B....trent and Charlie Taylor

    Thanks

    1. LC1
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. The Red Devil
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I am on A

    4. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

  3. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    On wildcard

    Martinez Forster
    Saiss Lamptey Justin CTaylor Mitchell
    Salah KdB Son Podence Burke
    Werner DCL Jimenez

    Got 1,2m in the bank. Any suggestions?

    A. Podence to Foden
    B. Justin/CTaylor to Reece James
    C. Upgrade Martinez
    D. Save in bank for a rainy day
    E. Something else

    Thanks!!

    1. LC1
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Justin to Castagne or upgrade Taylor to James?

  4. money face bandwagon
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Salah -> sterling?

    1. tokara
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No?

  5. theswallow1965
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    W/C dilemma now with KDB. Bought him in early at 11.5
    Is it safer to switch to Sterling? Trouble is it will cost me 11.6 to buy KDB back!
    Grrrrrrrr

    1. Chandler Bing
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      What happened to KdB?

      1. IRBOX ⚽
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Decapitated apparently

      2. Gandalf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Knock to back of his head and was down for a few mins. Distortion per Pep but if slight concussion would need to sit out the weekend

      3. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cook hit him with his elbow to beck of his head/neck apparently.

    2. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I switched to Sterling, not worth the risk but let's see what news arrives. N

    3. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keep KDB

    4. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keep

  6. FPL_Hazards
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any news on Marcal / Vinagre?

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not yet, Nuno press conference at 1pm.

    2. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No offense to Marcal but him being out for 3 months would be mightily convenient

      1. avfc82
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah, you just know Semedo will move to left-back tho and heap more misery on us Vinagre owners!

  7. quayle99
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Struggling with the captain choice out of these

    A. Salah
    B. KDB
    C. DCL
    D. Martial
    E. Auba

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm on Salah.

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Not worried about Tierney locking down Arsenal's left flank?

        1. avfc82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Nope, feel pretty confident this one will come off, Salah is an animal at Anfield.

    2. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

      Cant remember the last time KDB blanked at home

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Newcastle after the restart I think

        He's such a fraud in that free 8 position

        1. xHaTr
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Think that might be Fodens this weekend

          1. Flair
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Hope so, but if Foden partners KDB - assuming he plays - both are free 8s and not a 10

    3. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Mo Salah, Mo Salah!

    4. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      When in doubt, Salad.

      Although KDB is safe option too IMO as if he's concused won't be in team anyways.

    5. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B then A

  8. Ask Yourself
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Jonny Evans is back for Leicester. Their defence is not as calamitous as initially feared

    1. tokara
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      evans is shitty

  9. LewanGOALski
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Apparently Arkadiusz Milik is close to coming to Premier League.
    Tottenham, Everton and Newcastle are in talks with his agent.

  10. CrouchDown
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Sterling or Werner for captain?

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Timo

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling

    3. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Werner

  11. shiraz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    toying with the idea of a salah-less squad

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    Ake-TAA-Saiss (Lamptey, Mitchell)
    KDB-Son-JRod-Mount (Anguissa)
    Werner-DCL-Jim

    Risky?

    1. Redhulkster
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Rather have sterling over salah then.switch will be easier

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Too much shiraz?

    3. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Im going Salahless. Always a risk.
      Could do TAA to Robbo, Ake to 5.0 but all personal choices and what you have looks fine.

  12. klopptimusprime
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Reckon G2G?

    Martinez
    Robbo \ Saiss \ Mitchell
    Salah \ KDB (C) \ JRod* \ Podence
    DCL \ Jimi \ Jesus
    __________________________________________
    Forster \ Burke \ Lamptey \ Justin/Taylor 0.2ITB

    *Barnes might come in GW4

    Cheers guys

  13. Lxnzini
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Morning fellow WCers
    Settled on this would appreciate some feedback

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      It's a bit light

    2. Viper
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not enough players for my liking

      1. Lxnzini
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Hahaha yeah could be in trouble. 1 second will post again

        1. Viper
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          It's only fair I comment on it 🙂

    3. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      10/10

    4. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Translucent team?

  14. CheesyZoot
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What is better?

    A) Havertz + DCL

    B) Podence + Werner

    B would mean I have no Everton cover in my team.

    If I went with A, I probably would have Werner in for Jesus anyway, but going straight with B means I line up with Jesus + Werner off the bat for GW3

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

  15. DaddyPig
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Good morning all! Quick one.
    Who would you rather have playing each week on a WC?

    A) Werner and Lamptey
    B) DCL and Foden

    Thank you so much!

    1. Viper
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Redhulkster
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B given dcl will get upteen service

    3. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    4. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    5. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

  16. Do I Not Like Orange
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How does this WC look? Have left 1.4 ITB to bring in an extra City player next GW.

    Martinez Forster
    TAA Robbo Saiss Lamptey Mitchell
    KDB Son Jrod Podence Burke
    Werner Jimmy Mitro

  17. Viper
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any reason why I can't view the captain poll?

    I submitted my vote (KDB) but it just said thanks for voting with no results?

    1. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Submit —-> previous comments

      Kev 19%
      Werner 16
      Salah 11
      Son 10

  18. Sgt Frank Drebin
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Will Justin even lose his place in the starting eleven once Perreira is back? Won't Perreira replace Castagne on the right side?

    1. Viper
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Castagne can play both sides & looks a better player than Justin

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Long term, I expect Pereira will play right, Castagne left, sounds like it's a few weeks off happening tho.

    3. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Castagne and Perreira are both way better than Justin

    4. Jullepuu
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      They bought Castagne for big money. He won't get benched if he continues to perform well

    5. skodaole2
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nobody can say for sure. Maybe the attacking potential Castagne and Justin showed in the first two games may make Rodgers use one of them as OOP in the flank. We do not even know when Pereira will be ready to start a game so will keep Justin and Castagne in my team until something changes

  19. Dannyb
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hows this no pool wc looking? Like im gonna be in trouble
    Guita
    Saiss Castagne James
    Sterling Son Zaha Hamez
    Werner Jesus Jiminez
    Steer Mitchell Dunne Anguissa
    0.5itb

    1. CheesyZoot
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Looks good

      However, Zaha to Podence for example surely allows you to bring in a Pool defender? Pool defence + Podence probably outscores Zaha + one of you current defenders imo

  20. meechamspowders
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    a) castagne, Zaha & jesus
    b) vvd, son & mitro

    1. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B, but depends on the rest of the team.

  21. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Pick a combo, on WC
    A- Pope Lamptey Rodriguez
    B- Ryan VVD Zaha
    C- Guaita Digne Zaha

    Currently on B

    1. Viper
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C I think

    2. Gleys11
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I have B also and not planning to change

  22. Kuzser
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What's the best way to spread 30.9m across 4 players to complete WC?

    Also, do you think double Wolves attack(Podence and Jiménez) is too much?
    1) Son Zaha Podence -Werner (*Robbo instead of TAA)
    2) Son Foden Podence - Werner
    3) Son Podence - Wood Werner
    4) Zaha Havertz - Wood Jimenez
    5) Foden Barnes - Werner Jimenez (*Robbo instead of TAA)

    Martinez
    TAA Saiss Taylor
    KdB Salah XXX XXX
    Dcl XXX XXX

    Bench: Justin Mitchell, Burke/Brewster, 4.0

  23. CrouchDown
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Will Foden start at the weekend?

    1. Fudgy
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Just spoke to Pep and he said maybe

      1. Gooner Kebab
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Definitely maybe

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          What's the Story?

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      50/50 I'd say

    3. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I think Mahrez will get a game vs his former club..

  24. Lfcni1986
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Ryan
    Boly Saiss Holding
    Zaha Son(C)Salah Rashford
    Jiminez Jesus Mitrovic

    Walton Lampty Jageilka Helder Costa

    Thoughts?

  25. The Truth Is...
      3 years, 6 months ago

      My team is a bit different to what ive seen on here but im after some constructive criticism please.

      Pope
      Taa James KWP
      Salah KDB Fernandes Pereira Costa
      Jimenez Wilson

      Subs Peacock Farrell..Mitchell..Buur..Davis.

      Thanka in advance

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Why is it a bit different?

    • Saka Punch
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Final decision on WC -

      A) Robbo + JRod

      B) Semedo/Castagne + Son

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        A

      2. Gleys11
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        A

    • xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Current captain poll results, given many are struggling to see them:

      KDB - 19.6%
      Werner - 16%
      Salah - 11.5%
      Son - 10.8%
      Kane - 5.9%

    • Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Considering Lampard's tendency to choose the form players, I wonder if this is how he'll lineup.

      Abraham
      Werner - Havertz - Mount

      Not sure what this means for Timo, he does like playing next to a fellow striker but Abraham is far from the target men he's used to playing with, however his linkup against Barnsley was very impressive. Him or Jesus will go down to the wire!

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I can see this being the front four tomorrow

    • Lxnzini
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Thoughts on below WC chaps?

      Martinez
      TAA Saiss James
      Salah KDB Foden Podence
      DCL Jimi Werner
      Nyland Lamptey Mitchell Anguissa

      Am tempted to bring son in place of one of the FWDs and all play 352 is all.

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Basically the template

      2. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Arise, Sir Lxnzini!

    • Tosa86
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      My draft for WC:

      Ryan - Martinez
      TAA - Digne - Castagne - Saiss - Mitchell
      Son - Zaha - Jrodz - Costa - KDB
      DCL - Jimmy - Mitrovic

      ItB:0.9

      any suggestion/feedback?

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Admittedly I looked quickly, but didn't see Salah.