Welcome to the Fantasy Football Scout Guide to Gameweek 3, once again we have the new normal deadline of 11:00 BST – half an hour earlier than last season.
It’s been a rollercoaster start for FPL managers with a record number of goals scored last Gameweek. In the Scoutcast‘s ‘rough with the smooth’ many surpassed the 100-point mark while one poor soul mustered just 16 points.
The contrasting fortunes prompted a flurry of Wildcards in the Community, leading Az to reflect in this latest Pro Pundit article:
It does feel like people’s strategies – along with all sense of order and meticulous pre-season planning – have been thrown out of the window somewhat after a truly crazy start to the season.
– Az
Citing the differing experiences for managers with Man United and Spurs assets, Az pointed out that what we want one week can dramatically change the next:
With so many players performing, you simply can’t keep chasing last week’s points. You need to build a core squad of players who you feel are likely to deliver over the coming period, give them a chance to repay your faith.
– Az
Az went on to raise questions about several of this week’s targets:
- Will Son be productive against a Newcastle side that likes to defend deep? He was afforded plenty of space by Southampton’s high line;
- Everton are set to come up against some resolute defences in their next three matches, are Calvert-Lewin and James Rodriguez essential?
- And will the acquisition of Nélson Semedo impinge on the Fantasy credentials of Daniel Podence and his Wolves’ teammates?
David tackled one of those questions when he examined how the new arrival at Molineux could fit in under Nuno Espirito Santo:
The addition of Semedo to the Wolves squad should relieve Traoré of his wing-back duties very soon and shift him back into competition with Podence, Neto and Vitinha further up the field.
– David
It looks likely that those four will be vying for two places in the Wolves’ attack, although David reasons that Podence has probably done enough to secure a starting spot for now.
Semedo’s new club tops the list for upcoming fixtures, as Neale revealed earlier in the week. It’s a very appealing run:
Clashes with newly promoted Fulham and Leeds United are sandwiched by matches against West Ham United, Newcastle United and Crystal Palace, with three of those five games staged at Molineux.
– Neale
Encouragingly for owners and those considering their assets, recent comments from their Portuguese manager suggest we will see a more attacking version of Wolves this season:
The idea is to give them freedom to put their talent onto the pitch… I would like to be more dominant, I would like to have more of the ball, I would like to improve our tally of goals scored and at the same time, decrease goals (at the other end).
– Nuno Espirito Santo
Continuing his frisk of the fixtures, Neale agreed with Az that Gameweek 6 might be a better time to invest in Everton, when their matches get really good.
And former FPL winner Simon March supported Az’s idea that now is not the time to panic and reach for the Wildcard.
A graduate in behavioural economics, Simon introduced the concept of “The House Money Effect”:
The House Money Effect often occurs when we receive money in an atypical manner. For example; winning a bet, receiving a bonus or profiting from an investment. Behavioural psychologists have observed that people take far greater risks with such sums… [because] people don’t perceive these sums to really be their money.”
– Simon
Simon applied this idea to FPL noting that the top 10,000 managers in Gameweek 1 took on average more hits compared to the masses and, crucially – scored below average points in Gameweek 2.
For those of you reading this and perhaps regretting playing your Wildcard, there is hope in the shape of a three-time top 200 manager.
Lateriser has made his name by starting slowly and finishing strongly. And the Pro Pundit wielded his Wildcard after an underwhelming couple of Gameweeks. The upside-chasing manager has seen enough to encourage him in the first two rounds of fixtures, in particular the emergence of a few ‘glue guys’:
Glue guys are the kind of picks in a particular ‘value’ price bracket that you just need to set in your team and forget about for a long time because they will continue to offer bang for buck for the mid-to-long term.
– Lateriser
The new attack-minded Wolves is good news for first-choice striker Raul Jimenez, argues the Pro Pundit. While Brighton’s Tariq Lamptey offers excellent value at £4.5m and can produce returns at both ends of the pitch. Last season the buccaneering defender had a better big chance creation rate than the two Liverpool full-backs.
Finally he picked out Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who recently revealed the influence of manager Carlo Ancelotti:
Carlo Ancelotti is on me every day for first-touch finishes and to be in the box, in the right areas. It’s nice to know what I’m working on in training is coming off on the pitch.
– Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Good news for prospective buyers.
The Everton No 9 was also highlighted by Steven Reinaldo Rusli last week due to his impressive non-penalty xG stat. The Community Member looked at value (point per million) when making the case for a 3-4-3 formation to take advantage of the mid-priced forwards.
While a value for money approach was echoed by TorpedoToien who looked back over recent seasons to reveal which players had provided the best bang for your buck. Will Jimenez and Calvert-Lewin be this season’s Mahrez and Vardy?
And the king of the puns Greyhead who finished in the top 100 overall just two seasons ago, examined the player ownership among his chosen managers in The Great and The Good. The Community scribe fancies Southampton players could be moved on after failing to live up to pre-season expectations. But with West Brom in Gameweek 4, is that a wise idea?
Captaincy and Manchester City
A major talking point this week has been Kevin De Bruyne’s performance for Manchester City as he lined up in an attacking midfield role. The question many have been asking is will Guardiola continue to use the Belgian as a No 10?
David analysed his performance against Wolves and assessed the competition for places within the City squad.
And our new Captain Sensible writer Jan Sienkiewicz included the current PFA Player of the Year on his shortlist for the armband alongside Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, Mohamed Salah, and Sadio Mané.
While City assets look particularly appealing, Neale and Andy reported a possible concussion for the De Bruyne sustained in Thursday evening’s EFL Cup tie.
And today, rumours of a possible injury to striker Gabriel Jesus were confirmed by the player himself:
Focusing on Chelsea, Jan described Werner and Havertz as the outstanding picks for Gameweek 3. The double-points maestro questioned whether the Baggies will have enough to stop the Blues from scoring.
While on FPL Black Box, Fantasy Football Scout founder Mark reaffirmed his strategy for selecting a captain this season – going with the player who has the best fixture – and following that rationale, he is handing Timo Werner the armband.
A look at the latest clean sheet odds provided by G-Whizz backs the decision to go with a Chelsea or Man City player. Their opponents West Brom and Leicester City have the worst odds of a shutout in Gameweek 3.
And BigManBakar revealed in his in-depth review of Gameweek 2 that he will be selecting De Bruyne for the captaincy: according to the bookies, Man City are the most likely team to score 2.5+ goals.
Community Round-up and The Scout Network
The spotlight in the Fantasy Football Scout Network this week fell on Mini-League Mate. If you want a stat-packed breakdown of how your mini-league rivals fare each Gameweek (complete with attractive charts and graphs) then this for you.
And it was also announced that Tor Mikkel Tokvamm, creator of the Transfer Algorithm, and FPL Poker Player will be joining the Scout Network.
For an update on all FFScout Mini-Leagues and Community Competitions, please click here to read the latest round-up.
And for those interested in the Head-to-Head Leagues, the main page can be linked to here. The fixtures for Gameweek 3 can be found below:
Use the drop-down menus to show your league and division. To find out which league and division you are in, follow the instructions on the main Head-to-Head page.
Once the Gameweek starts, if you click on your opponent’s name you will be linked to their team on the FPL website.
May your arrows be green!
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3 years, 6 months agoIf I’m on a -4 already but play free hit now, will I still lose the -4?