Pro Pundits - Lateriser

How I am realigning my FPL thinking with more penalties on offer this season

It has been such a strange start to the 2020/21 Fantasy Premier League season and there is a lot riding on Gameweek 4.

Except for a few usual suspects coming to the fore, most of Gameweek 3 seemed like an anomaly rather than the norm, although it is still very early in the campaign.

But keeping that in mind, I will continue to advise Fantasy managers to not to panic and keep calm. Remember, last week was probably the ideal kind of time to have a bad Gameweek given the low average.

I Wildcarded prior to Gameweek 3, scored a measly 35 points and currently hold an overall rank of 4.8 million. That said, I’m not particularly worried (yet) and those that Wildcarded recently should judge their new squad after at least its first five Gameweeks, not just one round.

But how long can I go without addressing the elephant in the room?

I am, of course, talking about penalties.

For those that aren’t aware, the Premier League was asked to be stricter and more in line with the other leagues for handball rules this season, which has resulted in considerably more spot-kicks than usual. Of the 20 awarded so far, six have been for handball.  

But, we have already seen, after the chaos last week, that referees have been asked to be a little more lenient when it comes awarding penalties for handball from here on.

Under the new instructions, referees have been asked to consider the proximity of the player to the ball, his arm position and the amount of time he has to react.

This means that a player is likely to be penalised for handball if the arm is out from the body or if the ball has travelled a distance.

On top of that, if a player is using their arm for balance or protection then a penalty is less likely to be given, whereas a player’s arm blocking a direct shot on goal is more likely to be given. If a player has his arm above the shoulder, the penalty will still be awarded.

Given these new guidelines, the penalties awarded against Victor Lindelöf (£5.0m), Matt Doherty (£5.9m) and Joel Ward (£4.5m) would not likely have been awarded but the ones against Neal Maupay (£6.5m) and Eric Dier (£5.0m) would have still stood.

Dale Johnson from ESPN told us in his tweet that top leagues like the La Liga and the Serie A got awarded around 30 to 40 penalties more than the Premier League last season and, while I do expect the number to rise in England this year, I don’t think it will be drastic.

What this tells me is I need to realign my thinking with regards to penalties. While earlier I used thinking of a player being on a penalty as an added ‘bonus’, now I want to mentally give that player at least 10 to 15% more weightage in my head when making transfer and captaincy decisions.

However, that does not necessarily mean I opt for players like Callum Wilson (£6.4m) in my team because Newcastle are just not showing enough going forward in open play at the moment.

It also does not mean that I stop myself from picking players like Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Sadio Mané (£11.9m) in my team because that would mean giving way more attention to penalties than you should.

It just means that when debating Mohamed Salah (£12.1m) and Mané in my headm and if it’s a 50/50 call, the penalties will swing it for me this season. This wasn’t always the case for me last season.

Also, the only real predictability we have for these ‘random’ handballs for a team is if a team is spending a lot of time in the opposition attacking area.

My guess is that the penalty box touches of the final third touches a team has could be a good indicator of the ability of that team to win a penalty due to a handball.

This is in addition to the teams having players with the ability to draw fouls and win penalties because not much has changed with regards to the rules there.

Given these two factors, outside of the obvious candidates from Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United, I’m also looking at the likes of Richarlison (£8.0m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) more closely.

That’s enough on the subject of penalties and I for one hope that the Fantasy Premier League does not turn into the Fantasy Penalty League as it would take a lot of fun and eye-test assessment out of the game.

Another thing I want to talk about is that if you’re not really sure about what transfer to make this Gameweek, there’s no better time to save a transfer than the international break. As my co-host and fellow Pro Pundit Zøphar pointed out on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire, a lot of the national teams are playing three games in this period, so an extra transfer could be handy given the potential ‘injuries’ and in today’s world, ‘infections’.

Also, one more note with regards to teams like Manchester United and Manchester City, who have had a staggered pre-season and are visibly behind on sharpness when compared to other teams, I urge patience. This gap will only become thinner as more and more time passes and we should see all teams on similar levels of ‘fitness’ in the next two odd Gameweeks.

At the time of writing, I’m wondering whether to ship off Timo Werner (£9.4m) for the likes of Danny Ings (£8.4m) or Richarlison. Southampton have a really good fixture this Gameweek but the three games after don’t fill me with confidence.

Normally I wouldn’t worry too much about fixtures when it comes to Southampton but they are in the bottom half of the table for shots in the box so far and Ings had only a single shot against Burnley.

This, combined with Ralph Hasenhüttl’s quotes this week of taking a ‘defence first’ and the international break after this is making me lean towards banking my transfer. This could change before Saturday though.

“It wasn’t a good start to the season but we have focused our work this week on the defence and it was fantastic to see how much they had invested today.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

In addition, I’ve got a close eye on Spurs assets who have good fixtures (Jose Mourinho has got his team playing well) and maybe some returning Manchester City strikers post the international break.

I’ve also got to bring Salah back in my team really soon but can’t sell my Manchester City midfielders before the Leeds game, which has the potential to be a very high scoring affair.

This is how my team looks this weekend. I’m likely to hand my armband to Sterling or Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) since Leeds’ high risk football might leave a lot of space for these Manchester City attackers.

Sitting at 4.8 million, surely this is the time for a green arrow to finally come my way and I’m expecting resurgence for my team starting this week. Here’s hoping I see you on the other side at the end of a much due good Gameweek.

958 Comments Post a Comment
  1. wagner is king
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    had a terrible start.
    have son and Werner with no inngs or jiminez

    A) werner to ings, keep son
    b)werner to jiminez, keep son
    c) son to Barnes and keep Werner
    D) son to Barnes and Warner to inggs/jiminez -4

    1. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd do Jiminez for the fixtures

    2. teneighty
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Show us the rest of your team. I also have Son and Werner and I'm probably benching Son and playing Werner.

  2. The Mandalorian
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Podence still not a confirmed starter. His absence may impact on Jimi.

    1. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jimi will get his solitary goal.

      1. Limbo
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        + a brace.

    2. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jimmy for me.

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wolves match isn't until Sunday. He should play.

      1. The Mandalorian
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        That's a guess because even the manager doesnt know so how can you.

  3. Ritchies Magic Hat
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    (Werner) to Jimi or not to Jimi - that is the question... but is the answer Ings?

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Roll FT and reassess imo

  4. Aubamewho
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one, please?
    Currently benching Davies.

    A) Mitchell (CHE)
    B) Davies (MUN)

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. KDB4PREZ
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers all

    4. linkafu
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Davies may not play

  5. FC Hakkebøf
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    GTG? On a -4 so far.

    McCarthy
    TAA Robbo
    Salah KDB Foden Podence*
    Werner DCL Mitro
    ___
    4.0 Justin Bissouma Ferguson

    Worried about not having Jimenez nor Ings in my team :/

    1. checkit_j
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      2 at the back? brave

  6. konzi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which one would you go for:
    1) TAA & Klich
    2) Robertson & Trossard

    1. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      2
      Careful with Klich,they have good new signing in his position

      1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cuisance? That fell through

        1. FFSbet.com
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Ohh failed medical,didnt know

    2. KDB4PREZ
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Rough to say but learning towards A even though I love both B picks

  7. FFSbet.com
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A or B and why?

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  8. Cok3y5murf
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Regretting picking Podence and Foden on WC last week.

    Both traps and both with similar-sounding names

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Same!

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Still have my wc though

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      why? I'm liking those picks.

    3. Party time
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Lol

      • Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I told you (well maybe not you but people on here in general)

        1. KneejerkJoe
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Must be nice to be such a wise man, Stan!

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            I'm wise beyond my years 😉

      • Klaren
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Podence got injured, so that's just hindsight unless you already knew about the injury.

        1. Brosstan
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          It's not hindsight when he was injured before the deadline lol

          1. Klaren
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Yes it is. Don’t pretend that you knew he was injured after the City match?

    4. KDB4PREZ
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Any further news on richarlison?

      1. Limbo
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Might make it, but won’t have the info in time. Jimi/Ings this week.

        1. KDB4PREZ
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Cheers mate gl

        2. ELTACTICO
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Clueless! he was passed fit already

    5. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      so many bullshitters on this site. This is starting to annoy me

      1. ELTACTICO
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Ooo kamdaraji is annoyed! What are we all going to do now?! Should we seek shelter or flee!

      2. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        What is up delicate flower?

      3. Limbo
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Take a nap.

      4. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        You don't really come here for advise, Shirley?

        1. teneighty
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Of course we do. And don't call med Shirley!

        2. Threat Level Midnight
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          LOL well done

    6. Cheeto__Bandito
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Foden or Barnes

      1. Rolls-Royce
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Both great options this week

    7. Tsssst
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Who to start?

      Vinagre (FUL)
      or
      Mitrovic (wol)

      1. kamdaraji
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        you only have one choice. Vinagre has left Wolves!

        1. KDB4PREZ
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          He confirmed left?

      2. KDB4PREZ
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B looks like Vinagre leaving so wouldn’t fink he starts this GW

    8. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Red, Green or Blue?

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Red

      2. Limbo
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        None. Black is coming back.

      3. SAY MY NAME
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        depends on my mood, today i'll say green

    9. Bagayokeso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bench 1 - Taylor or Soucek

      Mccarthy, Steer
      Trent, KWP, Robbo, Taylor, Mitchell
      KDB, Salah, Jrodrigues, Barnes, Soucek
      Ings, DCL, Davis

      1. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        One does not simply bench Soucek

      2. ELTACTICO
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        soucek

    10. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Aren't these the classic fixtures (WBA) at home that Southampton do poorly innit? Having second thoughts about Ingsy captain...

      1. KEN YA DIG IT
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Naah saints will smash them

    11. ralfb
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Play foden or Brewster ?

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Is this a joke?

        1. ralfb
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Will Brewster not be starter at Sheffield ?

          1. Klaren
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Not this week

    12. Lazaretti
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      This could ne worth of WC but dont have time to pick goodwc team. 0FT 2.0 itb

      McCarthy
      TAA - Davies - Lascelles - Vinagre - Mitchell
      Son - KdB - Fernandes - Rodrigues - Soucek
      Adams - Mitrovic - Jimenez

      Son & Vinagre to Mahrez & Saiss -8
      Son & Davies to Sterling (c) & Taylor -8
      Just Son or Vinagre out -4

      Vinagre dropping in price and going so dont really want to keep him. Any suggestions? Thanks.

    13. manu4life99
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      1st sub:

      A) Mitchell (che)
      B) Bissouma (eve)
      C) Dallas (MCY)

      1. KDB4PREZ
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Am punting on Biss over Mitchell

      2. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B

      3. FPL FAN
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Mitchell

    14. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Martinez
      Saiss RJames Justin
      Salah KdB Son! Podence!
      Werner! Jimi DCL

      subs. Forster Lamptey Burke Mitchell

      What to do?

      A. Son to Mahrez
      B. Son and Werner to Sterling and Maupay (-4)
      C. Son and Werner to Zaha/Barnes and Vardy (-4)
      D. Save transfer and trust bench
      E. Something else

      Thanks

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Son to Havertz/Mahrez/Foden/Barnes/Madisson and save

    15. Stupendous
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Could get this for a -8 or plan for it for free in 2 weeks!

      McCarthy
      Holding Justin Robbo
      Salah KDB Rodriguez Podence
      Vardy DCL Ings

      Martin Bissouma Dunne Mitchell

    16. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Anyone else benching Jimmy for Brewster for those sweet bench points?

      1. KDB4PREZ
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        100%

      2. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        It would be rude not to.

    17. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Guys already used my ft on Martial to dcl now I have podence and son to sort out.Need suggestions.

      Ryan
      Taa kwp Justin
      Salah kdb soucek son * podence *
      Werner dcl

      4.0 Taylor Ferguson Brewster

      2.0m itb

      A) son to Bruno -4
      B) son to Barnes -4
      C) son and podence to Barnes and rashford -8
      D) son and podence to Barnes and mahrez -8.

      TIA guys..

    18. umerlfc
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Is Ayling or Dallas worth it on a wildcard?

      Can't see Leeds keeping many clean sheets

      1. KDB4PREZ
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I don’t fink so tbh I’d look elsewhere

    19. KDB4PREZ
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Is richarlison>Ings worth a -4? Don’t own DCL so would upgrade my 3rd striker to him after pool game, do yous think it’s worth it? Tia

      1. ELTACTICO
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Depends on Richa condition mate. Ings will score big this week I feel but so will Richa if he plays. For -4 I'd be very hesitant to do that move

        1. KDB4PREZ
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Agreed mate if rich is fine wouldn’t even consider it but just feel like he gona miss out

    20. ELTACTICO
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      bench Greenwood or Foden?

      1. KDB4PREZ
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Greenwood coz Foden plays Leeds (is he starts ofc)

    21. checkit_j
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What to do?

      McCarthy
      Taa Kwp Justin
      Salah KDB (c) JRod Podence
      Martial Mitro Werner

      1ft.

      A) Save FT
      B) Martial or Werner -> Jimi/Ings/DCL
      C) WC

    22. UnitednationsXI
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      couple of quick questions
      1) Worth holding on to Son? Lamptey (eve) would be 1st sub
      2) Barnes/Werner or Sterling/6.5m fwd (-4) for next two gw's?
      3) Maupay or Antonio if i opt for the latter option in the 2nd question

    23. Krupinho
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Worth swapping Salah for Sterling this GW for a minus 4? Or was thinking get rid of Dier for Semado at Wolves

      Sterling and KDB could fill their boots this weekend, whereas Salah may find it tough away to an improved Villa side

      McCarthy
      TAA Dier Taylor
      KDB (c) Zaha Soucek Salah / Sterling
      Jimi DCL Martial

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah sell Salah for -4, some plan.

        1. kamdaraji
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          lol

        2. Krupinho
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          thanks

      2. Traction Engine Foot
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        No, save imo

        1. Krupinho
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Need a green arrow after a very poor start, so try something different

      3. ELTACTICO
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I agree that Sterling is more likely to haul than Salah but for -4 I wouldn;t.

        1. Krupinho
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Being so far down overall, minus 4 not going to hurt much lol, and hopefully the many points Sterling will get will compensate

    24. Traction Engine Foot
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Son and Vinagre to Trossard and Robertson worth -4?

    25. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      GTG? On a -4 so far.

      McCarthy
      TAA Robbo
      Salah KDB Foden Podence*
      Werner DCL Mitro
      ___
      4.0 Justin Bissouma Ferguson

      Worried about not having Jimenez/Ings in my team. Still got my WC

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Saiss is the 11th player

      2. Traction Engine Foot
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yes