Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. dshv
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any chance of podence starting ?

    1. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      75%

    2. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hope so

  2. Bumbaclot
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play Pickford home to Brighton or McCarthy home to wba in the draft gents?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      McCarthy

  3. FPL Alaska
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which option?

    A) Mitro > Ings (-4)
    B) Podence > H. Barnes (-4)
    C) Neither and keep Mitro + Podence

    1. Sid07
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

    2. Jensen Luiz Coleman
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  4. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    quick one.

    A. foden digne
    B. ings 4.4 def

    1. Sid07
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B if 4.4 is 4th choice defender

      1. SMOOTH
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        hes 4th choice but soucek is 7th attacker

        1. Sid07
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          A

    2. mpk
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. FPL Alaska
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hmm A barely

  5. Sid07
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    1) auba to kdb(-4)
    2) hold

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      1

    2. FPL Alaska
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would do that

    3. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      1

  6. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best use of transfer?

    A) Davies ---> Robertson
    B) Bissouma ---> Foden (bench davies)

    1. Sid07
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  7. Agger
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is anyone brave enough to captain the most in form striker in Europe at Home vs Brighton?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      It is tempting

    2. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I worry the big Brighton defenders will outmuscle him in the air. Could be totally wrong though and he bags a hatty

    3. FPL_trail_runner
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He is playing Leeds away 😉

  8. Jones Town
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best 6.1 or below midfielder? Mainly for this week as might be wildcarding next week...

    A) Trossard
    B) Pereira
    C) Soucek
    D) Other?

    Have Podence already! Thanks 🙂

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pereira

    2. Dele
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Soucek

  9. mpk
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you believe Mahrez will start tomorrow?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    2. FPL Alaska
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes, I don't see why he wouldn't especially with Kun and Jesus out

      1. mpk
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        He played last two, full 90 minutes, and torres proved his self in the last one

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No.

      But I'm about 60/40 so not at all sure.

    4. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Ask Pep, not us

  10. LordEllison
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hey all, have 1 FT and 0.0 ITB do i Wildcard or do i just get rid of son? Thanks..

    McCarthy
    Trent Bdavies KWP Rjames
    Salah Sterling(C) Son ASM
    Martial Werner

    Steer Bissouma Mitchell Brewster

    1. FPL Alaska
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Just do Son. Better to do WC during international break if you want to WC

    2. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I have a very similar team, doing the same for son, if he plays bonus. Maybe worth a gamble having Brewster first on the bench.

      1. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        why brewster won't play

    3. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      really don't like the martial pick

  11. The Tinkerman
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Starting 3 flagged players this week. G2G or take a hit? I don’t trust Mou at all on Son’s availability.

    McC
    TAA, Justin, James
    !Son!, Salah, KDB, !Podence!
    Jiminez, !Richarlison!, Mitro

    Nyland; Taylor, Bissouma, Mitchell

    1. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      similar position (see below). I'm leaning towards a hit including Son and one other

  12. DMil
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mane not pictured in training and rumours, I must stress the word rumours, doing the rounds he’s one of the positive tests. Mane owner here

    1. redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah they just said he’s tested positive

  13. Follyfarmer
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    On wildcard and am pretty set on this team... but no salah is worrying me, what do you think?

    Mcarthy
    Digne - robbo - castagne
    Zaha - de bruyne - fernandes - pereira
    DCL - ings - jimenez

    Forster, lamptey, mitchel, bissouma

  14. FPL_Devil
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martial to Ings or Jimenez for 1 week before wc? Cheers

    1. FPL Alaska
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      For 1 week Ings, higher ceiling

      1. FPL_Devil
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers!

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would yes

      1. FPL_Devil
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Would you go Ings or Jimenez?

    3. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Martial is dead money right now

      - I own Martial, he looks TERRIBLE

      1. FPL_Devil
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        yup agreed. reason i got rid.

  15. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Taking COVID into consideration, I think my squad is good to go. Thoughts?

    McCarthy
    Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
    Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha / Barnes
    Jiminez / Ings / DCL

    Bench: Forster / Soucek / Mitchell / Dallas

    0.1 ITB.

    Cheers

    1. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I like the salah cap pick. Thats who I'm cap too.

  16. Sir Edo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I see a lot of games (5) to be played 15.00 from gw 5 and forward. No more evening ones or are they to be scheduled later?

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Later

    2. Seanigula
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Later I think

  17. Dthinger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hmmm. Lascelles flag has me worried now.

    Leno
    TAA Robbo Lascelles* (Mitchell Ayling)
    Salah Auba Son* Podence* (Bissouma)
    Adams Mitro Jimenez

    That's at least one more injury flag than I'm comfortable with, so...

    a) Son to Mahrez (would have to start Mitchell or Ayling)
    b) Son + Lascelles to Mahrez + Coleman
    c) something else that doesnt involve James, Justin, Lamptey, or Foden.

    1. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      d) Podence + Lascelles to Soucek and Coleman?

  18. Dele
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Robbo and TAA overkill?

    1. Sir_Dunc
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I have both. I'm wondering the same thing. Good points scores so far though and you've got to think Liverpool consistency will pay off.

    2. _Ninja_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No both are great options.

    3. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If they were 7 & 7.5m mids we'd all have both.

    4. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Depends. For me, its my strategy for this season. So I'm keeping them all season barring injury.

    5. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      You get a lot for your money with RoTAA strategy

      But I would be against adding Salah to the mix with RoTAA

      But I am having a horrible season, don’t listen to me

    6. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Just put them in and leave them . Require patience

  19. Sir_Dunc
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What do people think of a flexible 352/343 formation with Soucek and Brewster rotating?

    1. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think you will be pretty upset when Souceks points are on your bench

      1. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Soucek is The Man.

        People have said the new Fallini (?) or is he the Czech Rijkaard?

        Many kids don’t know who Rijkaard was a player. He was awesome and do-all.

    2. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      It’s not too bad at all..

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not sure their fixtures match up well to rotate?

      1. Sir_Dunc
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Not straight away, but they get better as a rotation

  20. The_FF_King
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Son out for

    A)Fernandes

    B) H Barnes

    1. The Senate
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      what will you use the extra 3.5M for? no brainer for Bruno if nothing major

    2. gomez123
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      i did b

    3. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

  21. Slitherene
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    McCarthy ¦ 0 ITB, 1 FT
    TAA - Coady - Justin - Taylor
    KdB - Salah - Jorginho - Son*
    Richarlison* - Werner*
    ¦ Mitrovic* - Ward - Bissouma

    1) Werner -> Ings
    2) Werner, Son -> Maupay, Sterling
    3) Werner, Mitrovic -> Wilson, Ings
    4) Save?

  22. Gaffa914
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Saiss and Werner to DCL and robbo?

    1. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would say yes. But Saiss is good. You don’t have another 5.0M defender to sell?

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      no way

  23. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Captain Jimi or KDB?

    1. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KDB

  24. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    if it's true about mane, salah c right? Salah record without mane last season was amazing

    1. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Villa still a decent defence though.

    2. Seanigula
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think Liverpool win 1-0 without Mane

  25. Super Squirrel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    For draft league.

    Who would you rather have long term?

    Che Adams or Rhian Brewster?

    Currently have Che Adams.

    1. Seanigula
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Che

  26. HollywoodXI
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    GTG?

    Martinez
    Saiss Justin Mitchell
    Salah KDB Bruno Podence
    Vardy Ings DCL

    Steer Bissouma Dunne Cooper

  27. Trippier Hazard
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hello, start Podence or Bamford please?

  28. Steirish
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which?

    Robbo and Leno or
    TAA and Mccarthy?

  29. Zrinkec
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Am i crazy to captain Auba over Salah, Ings and JImenez?

    1. Dele
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    2. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Auba is a great player but in the young 2020/2021 season...

      Soucek is outperforming Auba

      Mitrovic is outpacing Auba

      DCL looks like a 30 goal player

  30. Dele
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Can someone explain to me the Soucek hype?

    1. n-doggg
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Have you watch the last few games? He’s basically the new Fellini for 5.0

      1. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Rijkaard 2020