Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. paza12
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best Son replacement? Have 9.4 ITB. Got Barnes, Rodriguez, Zaha and Townsend on the radar. Cheers!

    1. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      You seen Son’s fixtures GW5 onwards?

      1. F_Ivanovic
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Good for 4 weeks before 3 tough fixtures in 5 games. And West Brom is the only really good fixture. Not worth holding on IMO

    2. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      hold

  2. Shineonme
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    3

  3. Threat Level Midnight
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    People acting like Salah is the best captain choice...

    Just sitting back with Sterling (C) locked in chuckling!

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Don’t own Sterling and I predict you will be chuckling this weekend could be an insane haul in store but I just don’t know whose bettee between mo or Kev rn

    2. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A deluded United fan. Where have I seen that before?

      1. The Senate
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        nothing delusional about this post.

      2. COLLIN QUANER
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        So you think Sterling is a bad choice this week....?

        1. Threat Level Midnight
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          He doesn't think. He's made it clear continuously with his posts.

  4. TSN
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Need some opinion.

    Martinez (meslier)
    Digne - justin - TAA - ayling - dunne
    Salah - hamez (son, harrison, bissouma)
    Jimenez - Vardy - Wilson

    0.9 itb, 1 FT

    A. Keep it, save FT
    B. Son + wilson --> DCL + Zaha
    C. Son + wilson --> fernandez - callum robinson

    Thanks

    1. Pulp Minion
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A - keep the transfer - it could be VERY handy over the international break.

  5. Rains of Castamere
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Villa's defensive improvement is just... wow.

    https://twitter.com/aveek18/status/1312061361904652289?s=19

    KDB (c)

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      oh for god sake

    2. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      They certainly won't be pushovers.

      I'm surprised so many think Mane out is some kind of advantage for Salah. Villa will be tough to break down.

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Helps not having Nyland in goal anymore
      That would have been a Salah TC opportunity

    4. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      It's definitely better since that restart period, however the first two games this season for them were not the biggest of tests.

    5. Goonsquad245
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      How many goals do you expect Liverpool to score on Sunday?

  6. baines is god
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I have 2 FT's and genuinely no idea what to do. I heard Vinagre is about to leave and probably won't play tomorrow. But he's 4.4 mil and annoyingly I don't have any money in the bank so only playing options are Mitchell, who'll lose his place to PAV after the international break and Dunne who could lose his place to Mee.
    I don't want to not use a transfer and waste one!

    Nyland McCarthy
    Robertson TAA Shaw Dier Vinagre
    Stephens Mount Salah Romeu Podence
    Vardy Ings Kane

    Other options include
    A-Shaw > Coady
    B Kane > Jimenez
    C Kane > DCL and Romeu > Barnes

    Thoughts much appreciated!!

    1. TSN
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C looks good

    2. skodaole2
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I d change Shaw and Vinagre. Many options there, all comes down to which teams you prefer. Kane and Mount are your differentials I wouldn’t touch them. If you like Shaw that much, I d downgrade Podence to upgrade Vinagre.

      1. baines is god
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        any suggestions which two defenders I could move towards. Obviously 9.4 million is a very inconvenient amount. Who's the most nailed on sub 4.5 defender at the moment.
        Johnson, Mitchell, Dunne could all lose their places after international break

        1. skodaole2
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I d go for a Newcastle and maybe Justin if the cash is enough, else a Villa defender could be handy they seem to have a good defence

          1. baines is god
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Like Shaw to Lamptey and Vinagre to Justin but really want Wolves defenders, think they could easily get 3 clean sheets in next 4 weeks

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Shaw to Lamptey gives you a bit more funds

    4. Rains of Castamere
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I wouldn't be losing Kane...

      Mount to Trossard
      Vinagre to Saiss

      1. baines is god
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Mount's my Chelsea coverage and seems great value right now at 6.9
        Lampard seems to always pick him also

        1. Rains of Castamere
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah I like him but your strikeforce is your differential really, can't be many teams around with those big hitters.

          1. baines is god
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Shaw to Coady is an option. Coady has no attackng return potential unlikely Justin and Lamptey but Wolves' clean sheet potential in next 4 weeks is so high I want coverage

    5. AnfieldLad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Vinagre is probably main concern as he’s leaving. Maybe Kane -> DCL/Jiménez and Vinagre -> Semedo ?

  7. Tcheco
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bottomed

    Mane out for:

    A. KDB
    B. Salah

    I own Sterling

    1. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Auba

      1. Tcheco
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Wow didn't even think of that one hmmmm

        1. Tinkermania
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          That's why I am doing starting the week with -8

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      auba or salah

  8. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start 1
    Taylor or justin

    1. Tcheco
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Surely Justin

  9. Pedram
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Think Jimenez is a great captaincy pick this week but don't have the balls to give it to him.

    1. PL Ball
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      'Explosiveness' ability is always the question for me.

    2. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Its the low ceiling that puts me off. Your not getting any more than a goal and a few bonus max

  10. JohnnyRev7
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    With Mane absent this GW should I go:

    A) Havertz (3.5 ITB)

    B) Sterling (already have KDB - 0.4 ITB)

    Can't afford a straight swap to Salah.

    Thoughts?

    (Just when I thought I'd nailed my WC. Grrrrr....)

  11. Ronniie
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Seeing as Barnes is the consensus replacement for Son I feel lucky to have both. I’ll go ahead and start Sonny in hopes that Jose was just playing mind games. Got Lamptey 1st bench

  12. HellasLEAF
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    why Gabriel not starting for Gunners?

    played well, scored, then benched...

    1. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Arteta loves David Luiz and Holding has more experience.

      Think Holding will be out this week tbh though.

    2. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Think they're just trying to ease him in somewhat. Could see him playing this week since its a home game.

  13. Bennyboy1907
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    KDB or Salah for captain
    Mane is out
    What do we think?

  14. Stupendous
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Scouse fans...

    Jota straight in for Mane???

    1. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Any truth in it now?

      1. The Senate
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        BBC

      2. PL Ball
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Confirmed by Club. He tested positive.

      3. Good Times
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Fpl website has the news flashing

    2. Stupendous
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nobody has answered

  15. Captain Vantastic™
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Coady or Saiss? Please advise.

  16. kamdaraji
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    looks like Son will be dropping in price again to 8.9m

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bargain

    2. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Might miss one game and then has brilliant fixtures. Crazy to get rid of him in my opinion

      1. Goonsquad245
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Depends who for

  17. Viper
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hi all. Any advice on this?

    A. Mitrovic -> DCL (-4). Yay/Nay?

    B. Start Justin or KWP? Also play Mccarthy

    1. Boss Hogg
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes
      B

      1. Boss Hogg
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I mean Yes and Justin!

  18. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Brewster eligible to play?

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Don't think so.

  19. damiang2233
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Son, Podence & Lascelles on the injury list? Any thoughts what to do?

    1. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      wildcard?

      1. damiang2233
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Too early to wildcard...Thinking of taking son and werner out for KDB and DCL? Chance leaving the other 2 injuries as 75%?

    2. skodaole2
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Depends on your bench. None of them is ruled out 100 percent so I guess you may have at least one starter there. If need be change two for a hit to be sure you don’t have many zeros

    3. Rains of Castamere
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Podence likely to play IMO

  20. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play Mitro or KWP this week?

  21. Good Times
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Usually have a real cheap bench but really need atleast 2-3 points coming with covid still being a reality we can't shake off

  22. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Rams
    Taa justin sais taylor
    Bruno salah kdb podence
    Dcl jimi
    Bench - soucek davis mitchel

    Which?
    A) roll ft
    B) soucek to klich, bench taylor/justin
    C) davis bruno -4 to ings barnes, bench taylor/justin

  23. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Lamptey and Burke good enough bench cover for Son and Podence? Considering whether to switch Son to Mahrez/Barnes or save transfer.

  24. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Guys, please choose one of the two:

    Team A)

    McCarthy
    TAA / Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
    Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha
    Jimenez / Ings / DCL

    B: Forster / Mitchell / Burke / 4.5

    0.2 ITB

    Team B)

    McCarthy
    Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
    Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha / Barnes
    Jimenez / Ings / DCL

    B: Forster / Soucek / Mitchell / Dallas

    0.1 ITB

    Appreciate all replies guys, thankss!

    1. King Kun Ta
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks, anyone else please? 🙂

    3. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A but with Barnes instead of Zaha

    4. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks KK, anyone else please? 🙂

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Try to eliminate what you’re actually asking. E.g you are in theory choosing between:

        A) TAA | Burke | 4.5 mid
        Or
        B) Dallas | Barnes | Soucek

        Which, now I’ve put it like that I prefer B

  25. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mahrez or Barnes? Agonising over this one! Replacement for son by the way.

    1. Stupendous
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Same. Ugh.

    2. Stupendous
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jota could be the answer now!

    3. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mahrez

    4. ididnt
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      barnes for me

      1. Will J 256
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks guys!

  26. tristanabc
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who to bench? Currently on James.

    Martinez (Steer)
    TAA Saiss Castagne (James, Mitchell)
    Salah KDB Mahrez Podence (Anguissa)
    DCL Jimi Wood

  27. Drip Doctor
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Son owners, lets talk.

    What are we doing with him? The popular moves seem to be

    Son > Barnes
    Son > Mahrez

    Do any of you think its better to keep him? Jose is being very coy about the whole situation, it wouldn't surprise me if he starts. Normally, i'd do Son > Mahrez, but i'm not certain Mahrez will start. The City fans seem to dislike him for whatever reason and having played 90 midweek, its put me off.

    Barnes i like, but, is he worth a transfer when Son will be back after the International break, i don't think so.

    I leaning towards keeping him.

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'm trying to figure out a way to get a decent Xi Out and hold on to him myself, considering Bale is due to be fit after the IB too, that front 3 should be electric.

      1. Drip Doctor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        It also worries me a bit. Jose seems to enjoy rotating all of a sudden.

    2. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Considering the same (see above). Depends on the bench cover. Have Lamptey as 1st sub and Burke as 2nd (if Podence is out as well) so might just save.

    3. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I did:

      Son to Barnes
      Wilson to DCL for -4

    4. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I don’t think Son will play at all at the weekend but will be back after IB

    5. TSN
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'm keeping him and playing with two midfielder this week (have harrison on my team).

  28. Nando7
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    best 6.0 million mid to own this game week? other than wolves players***

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Trossard maybe

    2. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pereira

    3. Nando7
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      cheers, currently on townsend but i like the trossard shout especially considering no Allan and Gomes...

  29. Manani
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    we expecting Brewster to start when fit right? Not this GW obviously, but after

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yep. Him alongside McBurnie or Burke initially.

  30. sentz05
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Barnes or J Rod?

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Barnes