Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Son to kdb/sterling (c) for -4 yes or no?

    1. osceola31909
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Sterling or kdb?

    2. Nimby
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Certainly. If I could afford that I would do it. But I can't. So I won't.

      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Kdb or sterling?

        1. Nimby
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Probably KDB. Just a safer long-term pick.

    3. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Otherwise no hit, salah (c) and Soucek playing

    4. Sir_Dunc
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Depends who you have on your bench already

      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Soucek

        1. SuperG
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Hold. Son may play. And even if not, he’ll be back after the IB. His form is irrefutable.

          1. Lord Flashheart
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Cheers

        2. Sir_Dunc
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I would consider benching him or start him with Soucek as sub 1. Mourinho's comments suggest, worst case scenario, he will be back in next game

  2. SHOOTER MCGINN
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    ASM -> Jota -4?

    Probably wildcarding next week so probably won't, but Newcastle are terrible

    1. Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No

      1. SuperG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Agreed. Mane back after the IB. Jota only realistic proposition if mane or salah gets inured.

  3. timawflowers
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which 2 to play with dlc?
    A - werner and ings
    B - jiminez and ings
    C - vardy and ings
    D - vardy and jiminez

    1. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. Sir_Dunc
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

  4. boroie
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Son to ...

    A - Rashford
    B - Havertz
    C - Mahrez
    D - Foden
    E - Pulisic
    F - James Rodríguez
    G - Maddison/Barnes

    1. Abaddon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Depends on your bench. Hold for upcoming gws

      1. boroie
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Bench is Shaw and Davies :/

        Also have Podence starting

        1. Abaddon
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I am keeping son. And your bench is better than mine

          1. boroie
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Think I’d be wiser switching Davies for someone like James

    2. Marty McFly
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’m going to take a punt on Mahrez myself. He played the full 90 in midweek, and he’s subject to pep roulette but Leeds will play a high line and concede goals. Even if he gets 30 minutes he can haul.

      1. boroie
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I was planning to go Mahrez but there are a lot on the City forum who think he won’t start

    3. D.Glynn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'm thinking of going Zaha

  5. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Really want to get a captain choice right to kick off my season.

    A) Salah
    B) KDB
    C) Jimenez
    D) DCL

    1. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kdb. Surely won’t disappoint again

    2. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      All great options

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Lol thanks

        1. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Ok, B

  6. MattysFantasyFooty
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Trossard or Klich?

    1. ReindeerHotdog
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Depends how much you need that 0.4m.

      Think Trossard is the better player and has good stats so far, but Klich being on pens and in a team that if it's not as good as Brighton, it's not too far behind makes him a good choice.

      I personally like Trossard quite a bit but he needs to be more clinical as Brighton aren't going to be giving him loads and loads of chances every week. I'll be keeping my eye on Trossard for the next few weeks and go from there.

  7. Zalk
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Somehow Saint-Maximin has stayed in my squad because of other fires. Could be a blessing in disguise.

    1. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      His stats are woeful as are Newcastle

    2. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Funny how quickly things change. At the start of the season, ASM was an absolute must have for his “bargain price”

      1. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        You never know tho he could give you a nice parting gift!

      2. Zalk
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, I fell for it :/

      3. TheCurseOfRaheem
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        He might get you some points this week tbf. I owned him for a bit last season, massively frustrating player in terms of FPL so don't think I'll go back.

  8. Nice to Finally Michu
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any word on if United are close to signing a Shaw replacement?

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Telles is rumored. Would be an excellent signing.

      1. Nice to Finally Michu
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        true just not for my fpl team

      2. Park the bus
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Bang average player

        1. Scots Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          11 goals / 8 assists last season. What you on about?

          1. Baconfaen
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            11 goals but 8 of them penalties which he won't be on in United.
            His assist stats are good, but also a card collector, sent off twice and 7 yellow.

    2. MarcusAurelius
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Is Shaw out?

  9. Sir_Dunc
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What do you think of this team?

    McCarthy
    TAA, Rob, Lamp
    KDB, Salah, JRod, Barnes, Soucek
    DCL, Jimi
    (Nyland, Brewster, konsa, Ferguson)

    1. Nimby
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I like it because my team is similar.

    2. pwill40
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Arise, Sir_Dunc!

    4. MarcusAurelius
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Only thing missing is Bruno

  10. pwill40
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Final wc meddling,,,,,,

    A. Castaneda / lamptey / Mitro
    B. TAA / Justin / Brewster

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B + lamptey

  11. FPL Doctor
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Need help! Worried about the flags. What to do?
    1 FT 0.8 ITB

    McCarthy
    Digne Saiss Justin
    Salah KDB(c) Son* Podence*
    Werner Rich* Mitro

    Ryan KWP Bissouma Ferg*

  12. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Captain :

    A. Ings (WBA)
    B. Jimi (FUL)

    1. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Go hard or go home B

  13. tbhogal
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Are you most of you guys still going KDB over Salah for the armband?

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No, neither.

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      For me its between KDB and Jimi

    3. Nimby
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'm not but I don't have KDB.

    4. MarcusAurelius
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I have Salah and KDB but currently on Jiménez

    5. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Might go Ings

    6. cutch
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes. But this is not an exact science, both options are right.

    7. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    8. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bruno for me

      1. FPL_Motty
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Lol @ your name but you're captaining bruno ;). Surely you should be capping Kane?!

        1. Big boy Bowen
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Owning him is enough of a differential right now 🙂

        2. Big boy Bowen
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Kaptain Kane is for special occasions these days

    9. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Got to be Sterling

  14. Bobby_Baggio
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Davies > Saiss for a -4?

    McCarthy
    Davies - TAA - Justin
    Salah - Podence - KDB - Hamez
    Jimi - Mitro - Ings

    Lewis - Johnson - Stephens

    1. Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      no

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No

    3. Bobby_Baggio
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers logging off now.

  15. Viper
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mitrovic -> DCL (-4)

    Id much prefer to be selling Adams but I just can't sell with that fixture.

    Hold off on DCL for a few weeks or take the hit now?

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Could probably hold off for the next 2

    2. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold.

      The inevitable run of blanks has to start soon?

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        He looks a different player to me, no idea what’s happened but he even looks more athletic.

        Don’t think he’ll continue at this rate of course but think he will continue to score quite regularly

  16. damiang2233
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play 2 of the below?

    1. KWP
    2. Lascelles
    3. Taylor

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Tough call. But coming from a newc fan.. id actually suggest kwp and Taylor. Burnley are the type of team to cause Newcastle problems, crosses in the box, wood strong in the air

    2. cutch
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      1 and 3

  17. Bad Kompany
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on what to do with Doherty?

    1. Nimby
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Swap him for Castagne if you don't already have him.

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers! He would be my likely replacement. Lamptey the other option

        1. Nimby
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Castagne could be so valuable. I had the opportunity to get him but chickened out for the cheaper Saiss and already regret it.

  18. james 101
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Gtg?

    Or should I be starting Justin?

    Martinez
    Digne Saiss James
    KDB Rodriguez Zaha Sterling
    Jimmy Martial DCL

    (Steer Justin Hendrick Mitchell)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Over...?

      1. james 101
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Any of the other defenders

        1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I have the same starting defenders with Justin first sub so GTG for me.

          1. james 101
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Cheers

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Justin a good pick this week.. but should 1st bench in this team

      1. james 101
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks mate

  19. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    guys last 2 tinkers

    martinez (steer)
    taa robbo DIGNE (lamptey mitchell)
    kdb salah barnes FODEN soucek
    dcl jiminez (BREWSTER)

    martinez (steer)
    taa robbo lamptey (ROBINSON mitchell)
    kdb salah barnes soucek (STEPHENS)
    dcl jiminez INGS

    2nd probably the stronger first 11 but 1st is probably more balanced.

    Thoughts please. need to lock in before i sleep

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Prefer more balanced team 1. Ings v good pick for this week which is tempting but longer term fixtures are tougher, and is always an easy switch from jimi to ings in several gws if its not working out

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      First team

  20. Tcheco
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you think Jota starts for Liverpool?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Likely. At what point does FPL allow an additional free transfer if COVID is the cause . . .

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes pretty likely since mane is out

  21. Park the bus
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    How do I see myself in hall of fame?

    1. Tcheco
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Lol

  22. Wob
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A. Barnes and Brewster or
    B. Bamford and Klich/Podance
    Thx

    1. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  23. RUUD!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mahrez or Barnes?

    1. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mahrez

    2. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mahrez

    3. Thescaff
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Barnes

  24. pug_chops
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best £5m mid?
    A) Soucek
    B) March
    C) Other

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Taff1952
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Soucek

    3. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      a

      1. pug_chops
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        3 for Soucek then. I was thinking him until I saw his fixtures. Not a concern?

        1. Kindness
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Managed to return once in three games after playing Newcastle, Arsenal and Wolves. I reckon he can do it again in the next three

    4. camarozz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Save my ft for the international break or get rid of one of the following Havertz/Martial??

      1. FFSbet.com
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I would save,how things go doubt anyone will have starting 11

      2. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Waste it on martial/havertz

    5. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      From wolves forum:

      "Looks like Marcel is touch and go for Sunday but reading into Nuno's words I get the sense Podence will play but Marcal won't"

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        It's just someone guessing tbh.

    6. damiang2233
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bench one?

      1. KWP
      2. Lascelles
      3. Taylor

    7. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Klopp has been in contact with Mane. Needs to self isolate

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Known hugger

      2. Bushwhacker
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        So have about two dozen other players . . . including Arsenal's. Tierney for one has to.

    8. Muscout
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      McCarthy
      TAA, Doherty, Vinagre
      Salah (c), KDB, Som, ASM
      Werner, DCL, Mitro

      Steer, Bissouma, Mitchell, Buur

      0.4 itb 1 free transfer, Son to who? May WC next week

    9. Dele
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      G2G?

      Martinez
      TAA, Robbo, Lamptey
      Salah, KDB(c), Hames, Podence, Soucek
      DCL, Kane

      Peacock, Brewster, Ayling, Mitchell

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Arise, Sir Dele!