Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. CheesyZoot
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do we expect Dunne to start again?

    Need to sort my bench in case Podence still not fit

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nope

    2. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nah, he's done

    3. HD7
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Read here Tark should take back his place

    4. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      not unless Tark or Long get injured and if Mee is back then pretty much no chance

  2. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone concerned there could be more played impacted at Liverpool vs. just Mane? Presumably he came into contact with other players at training etc?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    2. Bennerman
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Presumably he was one of the 10 announced cases earlier in the week I think it was. So if it was that 'batch', to speak crudely, perhaps just him.

      For now.

      But agree, find it hard to see how that has not spread an awful lot via him and everyone else. They are in physical contact so much, then sharing areas, vehicles etc. Surely we will see more.

      Unless they somehow whipped him away real quick and got lucky. Would need a hell of a turnaround in test, mind.

    3. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Surprised Tierney isn't getting tested after Monday night.

  3. Dangerous Rhubarb
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wow......just heard the news about Mane!

  4. Kjoreilly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bottomed


    Any improvements guys?

    0.7 ITB for Mahrez to Son

    Martinez
    Justin, trent, robertson
    Salah, KDB, Mahrez, Trossard, Soucek
    DCL, Jiminez

    Taylor, Brewster, Mitchell

    1. Dele
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good!

  5. Mr. O'Connell
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wildcard burned last week and now I'm looking at a midfield which contains Foden, Barnes and Podence. How the hell has this happened?!

    1. Doctor Evil
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Lol, bahhhhh bahhhhh

    2. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      you did it

    3. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      And Mane?

    4. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nothing wrong with those?

      1. Mr. O'Connell
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Foden only shows up in meaningless games at home when there's a rout in progress.
        Podence wouldn't be anywhere near anyone's side had he not megged KDB. Also huge injury-prone rotation risk.
        Barnes couldn't hit a barn door.

        1. FPL Blow-In
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Barnes is a good pick. Stick with him. Nobody has had more shots on target than him since the start of the season so he is definitely knocking on said door!!

          Podence is the one I don’t like. Foden will do well when he plays.

          1. Mr. O'Connell
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Just got Barnes in for Son. Wanted to keep him, but my bench is Dunne, Brewster and Mitchell.

    5. McGurn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Quite like those three myself, so no issues for me

  6. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A) Mahrez Brewster

    B) Burke Ings

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  7. Doctor Evil
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    With Son dropping tonight I can just then afford to bring him in once he’s fit again to give me this team.

    Martinez/ Steer

    Digne Robbo Saiss Justin / Mitchell

    KDB Son Bruno Salah Klich

    DCL / Brewster Davis

    Only will work if Brewster is a starter or too risky with just Mitchell as sub

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Like this team. Id be tempted to swap klitch for soucek, and upgrade Mitchell to lamptey? Or another playing 4.5. Justin may be dropped in 2/3gws, gives a better bench and def options

  8. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Gtg? 2.9m itb

    McCarthy
    KWP TAA Doh
    Hamez Podence KDB Barnes
    DCL Werner Ings
    (Martin, Burke, Egan, Mitchell)

  9. Kodap
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Salah
    KDB
    Jimmy

    Captain one?

    1. Deulo10
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KDB

  10. Dangerous Rhubarb
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    well I have 3 Liverpool players so who knows.......but if we draw some parallels to the Mahrez situation then I'm hoping for a similar outcome.

  11. Deulo10
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Repost:

    Son + Werner --> Sterling + Ings (-4)?

    Cheers

    1. HD7
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good idea

    2. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yerrp

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yup
      looks great

  12. HD7
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    On WC:
    Should I just take Castagne who is more nailed or Justin should continue to start after Pereira returns?

    1. Deulo10
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Castagne is definitely the safer choice (long term). I think he's more attacking as well. Depends on the rest of your team though

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Justin will be dropped when pereira returns. But good value until then..

  13. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez
    TAA Semedo James
    Salah KDB Podence Foden
    Jimenez Wood DCL

    4m - Lamptey Mitchell Reed

    0FT 2.5M ITB

    Thanks

  14. Liber
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martial.... What to do with him?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Shipped him for DCL.

    2. janowsc
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Chop imo

    3. Deulo10
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Definitely better options out there right now (DCL, Jimenez, Ings..)

  15. KDB4PREZ
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any updates on richarlison?

    1. Deulo10
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Ancelotti said he's having a test tomorrow to see if he can play or not

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        So he'll be back after international break? I plan to get him in from gw6. Double up with DCL!

  16. Lignja
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    McCarthy
    Taa, Vinagre, Justin
    Salah, Auba, Kdb, Son, Podence
    Mitrovic, Wilson

    Mithell, Struijk, Davis

    a. Son, Davis to Jimenez, 4.5m mid -4
    b. save and risk not having 11 players

  17. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kind of stuck between Robertson and Pereira versus Vvd and Foden. What are your views?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What about Robertson and Trossard?

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Do this

        1. FPL Blow-In
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yep have Trossard

      2. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I have Trossard also but thank you.

      3. Deulo10
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        +1

    2. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      R & P

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks

    3. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Robbo and Pereira all day.

      Robbo attacking returns in 7 of last 8.
      Wba got decent fixtures and Pereira focal point of team.

      VvD you might get a header from a corner, clean sheets not looking likely.
      Foden see my points above. He's just not there yet.

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Ok, thanks for the input.

  18. janowsc
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Should I keep and play ASM or Barnes -4? Cheers

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      ASM

  19. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Vardy C ?

  20. Ibralicious
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    So about that KDB vs Salah debate: Villa has been solid defensively and Leeds has leaked goals.

    But if you consider the fact that with Mané out and Firmino playing that deep false 9 roles as he usually does, all goal involvement will fall on Salah and Jota. With the experience and hunger for goal Mo has, it's hard to not see him involved here, even if Pool manages 1 or 2 goals against a seemingly good Villa defense.

    Meanwhile, City, even if they figure their messy attack out on Saturday, may score 3-4, but who knows how many of those KDB would be involved in. They have simply too many attacking options, and even Sterling is looking more and more like the better FPL pick with Jesus out.

    1. Ibralicious
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      These are just some thoughts and insights, and mainly just my justification for easily picking Salah (C) this weekend. 😀

      1. Volley127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Both very good picks I think at the end of the day. Can easily justify both.

        If Salah hauls and KDB doesn't, expect to see lots of "Salah main man, Villa defence flatten to deceive vs Shef and Fulham, Liverpool best team in the league, City points spread out, Salah obvious choice"

        If the reverse happens expect to see "Liverpool missing key players, Leeds open and defensively naive and City free scoring, KDB obvious choice"

    2. HD7
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah Mo Salah without Mane usually hauls

    3. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not sure I agree but best of luck with it. You’d think Villa will target Salah easier without Manè. Jota is not exactly the same Calibre as him. Who knows.

    4. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Or pool will struggle without mane causing problems and win by nicking a goal? I'm not convinced that mane out means salah hauls personally. You want a better team generally. Also not convinced villa are that great defensively so that goes in salahs favour. But then also martinez is in form currently, and might take some beating! Kdb has blanked before in a city goal fest, but its v.rare . He is very likely to be at the heart of all their attacking play, especially without a striker he will be pushed further forward. They both have pens.. its close, but I'm going with kdb :). Hope they both haul tbh!

    5. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Been KDB all week, but when you put it like that, it creates doubts. Thanks.

  21. HD7
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wolves topic:
    I know Coady is nailed currently but he is a boring pick since he aint a wing back.
    Is Saiss nailed for Wolves?
    I actually wish to bring Semedo, he should be their new Doherty, right?

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Saiss has much better goal threat, but a slight rotation risk when there are lots of games. Semedo can be a good pick but won't be a Doherty, semedo won't have the same goal threat but we shall see if he can become a creative force. He showed some nice touches and skill so far, but doesnt bomb into the box, forcing goals and assists in the box like doherty

      1. HD7
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks for the info mate:)
        Its between Saiss and Semedo then

  22. PURPLE-RONNIE
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who would you start between vinagre and taylor lads? I’m aware vinagres on his way out soon but unsure if he’ll play this last game, don’t want a sub appearance

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Doubt vinagre would be brought on as a sub, and generally thats the better fixture so play vin, if he doesn't Taylor comes on, easy

  23. _YNWA_
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez
    Robbo, Justin, Saiss, R.James
    KDB, J-Rod, Podence,
    Werner, DCL, Jimenez

    Son, Thiago & Mitchell on the bench
    1,2M ITB

    Midfield trouble

    A: Thiago to Barnes
    B: Son & Thiago to Sterling & a 4.5 (-4)
    C: Werner & Thiago to Ings & barnes (-4)
    D: Other

    Thoughts anyone?

  24. The Frenchie
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Salah or KDB as captain 😉 ?

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Salah

    2. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mane

  25. FPL Doctor
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Worried. Any thoughts?
    1 FT 0.8 ITB

    McCarthy
    Digne Saiss Justin
    Salah KDB Son* Podence*
    Richa* Werner Mitro

    Ryan KWP Bissouma Ferg*

    1. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Samaritans

  26. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you think that with Mane out Salah(c) is a wise decision?

    1. HD7
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

      1. wulfrunian
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        cheers

    2. dark91
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Should be yes for goals but less assist potential

  27. OLB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Castagne and Klitch or Barnes and 4.5 defender for medium term?

    1. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Good question, I am in doubt too

  28. Master Kane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Unable to afford KDB - so Foden or Mahrez?

    1. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I am thinking to get Foden but with Jesus back after the international break Sterling will move left and Foden might get rotated.

      1. Master Kane
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        looking at this week - WC next week

        1. wulfrunian
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Foden for me.

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Foden and $$

  29. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    How long does it normally take a player to have their team changed on fpl once they transfer roughly?

  30. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Ings or Jimmy?

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      My Jimi