Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. GROBARI
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best midfielder for 5.5 or lower

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Probably be flipping Armstrong after tomorrow! 😆 Remember him? Soucek can get points, save the half.

    2. Lukakus Unit
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      - McGinn
      - Diangana (if you don’t have another West Brom player)
      - March
      - (if he doesn’t get sold) Jorginho

  2. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Dunne no longer expected to play for Burnley? His price is rising tonight, wondering if I should downgrade Dallas to him on WC as bench fodder

    1. RedAlpha10
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Tarkowski is back now, so no

    2. krishna
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Avoid

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hes fourth choice CB behind Mee Tark and Long

      So he wont play unless there are 2 injuries as was the case recently

  3. olidooley
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one:

    A) Taylor (new)
    B) Shaw (TOT)
    C) Soucek (lei)
    D) Mitrovic (wol)

    1. RedAlpha10
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B or C, but would probably lean towards B

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Shaw

  4. krishna
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any sterling captainers here? He's gotten back into the goals in the league Cup and is against a leeds side who don't play the most defensive football.also,is there any chance he gets benched?

    1. Rsforstar
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Im scared of sterling benching too

    2. LSK
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’m captaining him. Always a chance, but I doubt it. Hardly any fit players and without Jesus or Aguero, Sterling’s firepower is needed.

    3. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nah, Pep said he's good te go... if you trust Pep?

    4. Lukakus Unit
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Sterling always plays crap when he’s forced to play central striker.

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        You watched @bur?

        1. Lukakus Unit
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I don’t count crappy cup games vs a rotated Burnley squad playing with their League One quality backup GK.

    5. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Have to cap Sterl vs Leeds

    6. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Just bought him and put the armband on him

    7. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      In the away games played post restart, Sterling accumulated six big chances (to De Bruyne’s zero), 10 shots inside the box (to De Bruyne’s 3) at an average of a shade above 10 FPL points per game (to De Bruyne’s 4.5 FPL points per game). @BigManBakar

  5. Garam MOSALAH
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Will you take a hit for Mitro > DCL ?

    1. RedAlpha10
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yes, dcl looking essential rn

    2. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yep

    3. nerd_is_the_werd
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      HOW DO YOU NOT HAVE DCL???

  6. RedAlpha10
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Zaha or Maupay??

    1. Garam MOSALAH
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Zaha

  7. lfcserg
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Repost

    Finish this WC Team Lads
    McCarthy - Button
    Robertson - Van Dijk - XXX - XXX - Mitchell
    Salah - KDB - Pereira - XXX - Stephens
    Jimenez - Ings - DCL

    15.4M to spend
    A) Castagne, Dunne and Klich
    B) James, Lamptey/Justin and Klich
    C), downagrade Van Dijk to Castagne, Justin, Lamptey and H.Barnes
    D) Other

    1. RedAlpha10
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C with Lamptey

  8. Mooster©️
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I got the exact money to do WErner to Vardy for a -4.
    Should I?

    1. olidooley
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No

    2. RedAlpha10
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      not worth the hit

    3. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not for me

    4. Rsforstar
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not for a hit

    5. tsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      if ya have held werner this long, hold him for another week and deal with it over the international break

    6. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would

  9. Teahupo'o
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Justin comes in if Son doesn't play. Son to Barnes -4 or hold?

    1. RedAlpha10
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      hold

    2. Garam MOSALAH
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Did Son > Barnes for free tho

    3. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold

    4. LSK
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold. Justin could outscore Barnes this week and Son should be back for the next game.

    5. Teahupo'o
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks all.

    6. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold

  10. Rsforstar
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you guys think its possible for sterling to get benched after playing full game 2 days ago?

    1. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      May get taken off early, think he’s start though

    2. Lukakus Unit
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pep is short of options, so my guess is he won’t get benched.

    3. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nah, see above.

    4. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Start.

      60/75 job done

  11. Bleh
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best combo?

    A. TAA, Justin, Bamford
    B. Robbo, VVD, Brewster

    1. Viprin
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A because of Bamford

    2. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. Lukakus Unit
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A. Liverpool’s D isn’t good enough to spend 13.5 on unless you’re going with TAA and Robbo as 7(.5) and counting on them for goals, assists and the occasional sheet.

  12. Viprin
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which one is better?
    Mitro & Greenwood > Jimmy & Tros for a -4
    Or just do Werner > Jimmy?

    1. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

  13. The Man Pastore
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Already on - 4pts, should I do Mane --> Mane for - 8pts or just play Taylor?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Justin KWP
    KDB(C) Mane Barnes Pereira
    Kane Jimenez Adams

    Bench: Steer Taylor Bissouma Ferguson

    Thanks!

    1. Albrightondknight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Play Taylor

    2. Villa Velour
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I personally wouldn't do Mane for Mane.

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I concur Mane wont cover Mane

    3. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If Mane->Salah then yes it's worth it.

    4. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mane has Covid so I would do whatever move u planned Salah or Sterling in for a hit

    5. OleBall
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mane to Mane sounds good

  14. Albrightondknight
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Rises for KDB And Lamptey
    And a fall for Werner and a .3 loss could really hurt my plans for the next few weeks but I suppose if I have held out this long no point in taking a hit now 🙂

    1. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d you can afford it

  15. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mccarthy, (Nyland)
    TAA, Justin, KWP, James (Mitchell)
    Salah, KDB, Bruno, ASM (Stephens)
    Werner, DCL (Davis)

    Should I:
    A) WC
    B) ASM --> 6.1M Mid (Trossard)
    C) Werner + ASM ---> Jimi + 6.9m mid (-4)
    Other suggestions???

    1. OleBall
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold transfer

  16. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I couldn't resist and made these hits.Son+Moura+Kane->Salah(c)+Trossard+Jimenez.The other plan was Son+Moura+Richarlison->Salah+Maupay+5.6.I know -8 is too much but i think there are good picks and this is the fun of the game.Good luck all.

    McCarthy
    Soyuncu/Coleman/James
    Salah(c)/Trossard/Barnes/Kdb
    Richarlison/Werner/Jimenez

    Steer McCarthy/Targett/Douglas

    1. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Good moves.

    2. RedAlpha10
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Richarlison is awesome - keep him

  17. Puntillimon
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I know I’m a bit late to the party, but watching all or nothing does make me wanna root for spurs to do well this season........

  18. School of Poch
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    GTG or any changes? Already took a -4

    McCarthy
    TAA Justin Taylor Davies
    (c)KDB Salah Zaha Podence
    Jimi Werner

    Nyland Mitchell Bissouma Davis

    1. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Team looks good. I'd put Bissouma ahead of Mitchell on the bench though

  19. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    WC g2g?

    McCarthy
    Robbo - Justin - Lamptey
    Salah - KDB - Zaha - Barnes
    Jimenez- Ings - DCL

    Forster - Soucek - Mitchell - Dallas

    0.1 ITB

    1. Villa Velour
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Great.

      1. JURGENAUT
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks mate

  20. FPL_Devil
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Age old question. Salah or De Bruyne for the C? Normally wouldn't go Salah away but I have a feeling. Cheers!

    1. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mane out so could be good for salah. Still think KDB is a better option though

      1. FPL_Devil
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers!

    2. Villa Velour
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KdB... but I'm not particularly rooting for Mo

      1. FPL_Devil
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I get the conflict. United fan myself but try to keep loyalties aside. GL this week!

    3. SouthCoastSaint
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What I’ve seen of Villa and Leeds, KDB could have a field day. If I had sterling he would be my captain

      1. FPL_Devil
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, Sterling does feel more explosive. Can't wait to watch the LEE-MCI game. Going to be fun. Cheers!

    4. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Have to go city vs Leeds

      1. FPL_Devil
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers!

    5. Salan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Salah will single-handedly win the match this weekend. Not surprised if he gets 10+ shots.

  21. fish&chips
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    How many Liverpool players are in quarantine? Any chance of a fixture postponement

    1. Villa Velour
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hopefully their starting XI.

    2. SouthCoastSaint
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No, been suggested it would need to be 6+ players and staff like Leyton orient earlier in the season

  22. SouthCoastSaint
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Just knee jerked Ings snd Barnes in for Rodriguez and Mitro for -4

    Someone tell me this was a good move. Couldn’t watch my saints without owning Ings this week and worried about James international being so close to Liverpool game

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Good move. About to do James to Foden for some reason you mentioned above

      1. SouthCoastSaint
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Harvey is a funny one, even in Fantrax where you get 'all' his bits. You've timed it quite well, I think.

      1. SouthCoastSaint
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I’ve watched all his games and he could have had a brace in all 3 games with the positions he gets in. Think this is his big season, Rogers seems to trust him now and maddison back in the team makes him even better

        1. Netley Lucas
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah, a bad game and Nacho's in, that's the way Brodge is.

  23. SamBlue
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    So, I just dropped a wildcard, bc my previous players were dropping like flies due to injury, illness, or warming the bench.
    RMT - any quick advice would be super helpful.

    Martínez
    TAA - Justin - Gabriel - Digne
    Fernandes - Barnes - Salah(V)
    Calvert-Lewin(C) - Wilson - Mitrović

    Nyland - Hendrick - Townsend - Konsa

    2.8 ITB

    1. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Gabriel? No KdB?

  24. tinear
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Werner Son to Jimi Barnes for -4? or Werner to Vardy/Jimi For free and keep Son?

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Son to Barnes..Keep Werner..

  25. LSK
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Opted for Trossard as my Son replacement in the end. At least it gives me 3.5 million in the bank to reinvest after the break and he has looked good.

  26. Bring back Rafa
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Sorry Lads I live on the other side of the world but;
    A) Is it just Mane missing, or do others have to quarantine? Will the game go ahead?
    B) Did they sell Brewster? And who to?

    1. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      My understanding:

      A) just mane. Game will go ahead.
      B) Brewster is sold to Sheffield but people saying he may be ineligible to play this weekend.

      Double check with others just in case though

    2. Alan The Llama
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      The game will go ahead. Brewster is now a Sheffield Utd player.

    3. FPL_Devil
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      So far just Mane missing.
      Brewster to SHU.

  27. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone interested in Klich? See a penalty in the Leeds - City game?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      /

  28. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which of these would you start this GW-

    1. Ayling (MCI).
    2. Bissouma (eve).

    Thinking Ayling as he may have a chance of attacking returns.
    Seems the more exciting pick too.

  29. Stupendous
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I could literally captain 11 of my 11

    Decisions!!!

    Ings with Vardy vice for now

    1. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Your team that good? I like the confidence aha

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      captain ur keeper if that is the case

      when will u get another chance ??

  30. Sloane426
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start ASM or Taylor?

    1. Maneonthemap
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      ASM