How underlying statistics can help cut through variance of FPL this season

Loads of managers thinking of getting rid of Liverpool defense after one nightmare .
Last three seasons
Trent 6G 30A 38CS
Robbo 3G 29A 44CS
VVD 9G 6A 43CS

A; KDB, Brewster, coady
Or
B) pulisic, Watkins, robbo
??

Please choose the best one:
A. KdB - Soucek - Bellerin
B. KdB - ASM - Lamptey
C. Bruno - Trossard - Bellerin
D. Bruno - Bowen - Lamptey

Morning gents

On WC:

A) 3-4-3/ 4-4-2
Martinez, Forster
Chilwell, ROBBO, SEMEDO, DALLAS, Mitchell
Salah, Son, Rodriguez, GREALISH, BISSOUMA
Kane, DCL, MAUPAY

B) 3-5-2/ 3-4-3
Martinez, Forster
Chilwell, KWP, SAISS, COOPER, Mitchell
Salah, Son, Rodriguez, KDB, SOUCEK
Kane, DCL, BREWSTER

Currently on A but is the weaker defence and Brewster in B worth it to get in KDB now?

Thanks!

play Watkins or ASM?

Thoughts on taking a -4 to get in maupay and son for Werner and Foden

3 Villa and 2 West Ham if she was to WC now. Somehow I think if we give it another couple of weeks this won't be the case.

Bit of balance is needed, we're only a few games into the season.. It doesn't make the likes of Konsa and Cresswell good options. And just because Liverpool haven't been too solid in defense so far, doesn't mean we should be going without TAA and Robbo. Make no mistake, they will still both be the top 2 point scoring defenders in the game by the end of the season.

Why Son's price isn't going up?
fplstatistic show he should go up day after day, but he remains 9.0

WC active

A 3-4-3
Martinez (4.0)
Robbo, Chillwell, Saiss(lampety,dunne)
Salah, son, Hames, Grelish (bissuma)
Kane, Werner, Brewster

B- 3-4-3/4-4-2
Martinez (4.0)
Chillwell, Saiss,coady, (lampety, Dallas)
Salah, KDB, son, Hames (Stephens)
Kane, maupay, Brewster

Thoughts?

Thoughts on WC team? Removing KDB for Kane.

Martinez forster
Robbo chilwell reguilon ayling 3.9
Salah son havertz rodriguez 4.4
Kane DCL watkins

A:
Werner, Brewster, Grelish

B:
Maupay, Watkins, pulisic

The sample size this season is too small to draw accurate conclusions using data. This was evident on the latest episode of FPL Black Box. Salah wasn’t even discussed as a captaincy option because of Villa’s “amazing” defensive record - but they had only played 10-man Sheffield United and a woeful Fulham side. Liverpool’s defence was just as leaky at this stage last season, then look what happened. Normality will be resorted after the international break with the transfer window closed. I think we’ll see fewer goals and less violent variance.

“ At the opposite end of the table, it’s a worry to see that Wolves have scored the fourth fewest number of goals (four), with three of those coming in Gameweek 1.“

Please fix this; Wolves only scored 2 goals in Gameweek 1, not 3.

So i activated my wc
After giving the armband to kdb
I i have fallen behind
I dont see the point now of having dcl kdb bruno all the guys with high ownership because i need to play catchup
Im thinking of going murphy rashford sterling semedo grelish
What u think?

A) Grealish & Lamptey
B) Bamford & Chillwell

IB barely started and I already have 3 injury concerns:

Auba
Sterling
Brewster
Coleman

I am thinking to get Cavani in for Werner.

Why are people using WC now? The ideal time would be GW8-10 when fixtures drastically shift negatively for Spurs and Wolves and turn amazing for City and Liverpool and to a lesser extent West Ham (Antonio and Soucek). The other option is to hold for the blanks and doubles around GW18

Brewster owners....

Is this the game week where we unleash him on our team? Or are we worried about a possible cameo and 1pter?

I'm very tempted to play him over Podence this week before benching him for the following three tough games after that.

3 Yearsjust now
How is she looking? (wc)

Martinez
TAA Chilwell Ayling
Salah Son Pulisic Rodriguez
Kane DCL Maupay
____
Steer Marcal Stephens 3.9

Who would you look to captain gw5?

A....son v hammers

B.....kdb v arsenal

C....salah at everton

Thanks

Am I on the right track with this WC team?

Martinez (Button)
Reguillon Chilwell Justin (Mitchell Dallas)
Salah KDB Son Hamez (Bissouma)
DCL Watkins Ings

Bruno and Podence to Son(c) and Grealish?

Which combo is better

A. Wilson, Branthwaite

B. Watkins, Jamal Lewis

Note that I currently have 3 playing defenders and Nathan Ferguson..

Lamptey or Zouma? Who nailed more?

Is Regulion and Zouma nailed?

Is episode 6 of Mark and Az's Black box out yet, and if so, is there a link please?

Views on this WC?

Martinez
Saiss Robbo Chilwell
Son Grealish Hamez KDB
DCL Kane Antonio

Forster ASM Mitchell Kilman

If I want Salah in, I have to downgrade Robbo and 1/2 others to turn Hamez into Salah

Bench one of
a) Martinez
b) McCarthy

and one of
1) Dier
2) Castagne
3) Justin
4) Reece J.

I'm seeing some debate come up about fixtures vs form again. We have this debate every year. Inevitably someone defies the fixtures and goes on a hot streak and then everyone says fixtures don't matter any more.

I don't think that's the case. I think what is the case, is that we are not evaluating the fixtures correctly.

Home and away advantage is much diminished this year, so I would amend the fixture ticker to give the home team a much slimmer advantage. A team's absolute strength is now a bigger determining factor.

Everton, Villa and West Ham off the back of their strong results should be given upgrades in terms of fixture difficulty, Sheffield United, Fulham, West Brom and Burnley given feeder status. The latter 4 are particularly good to target for defensive returns.

More trends will show, but once we can actually know who the good and bad teams are, we can work on our fixture tickers and target the bad ones.