Pro Pundits - Andy

FPL Gameweek 5 – What we know so far

We now have four Gameweeks worth of data in Fantasy Premier League. Is that sufficient to radically change our strategy? Probably not.

But it is definitely enough to start looking at what trends have occurred, and whether we should begin challenging assumptions about certain players and teams.

In this article I want to highlight some of the main changes to my own fantasy thinking as we head into Gameweek 5.

Aston Villa looking good at the back

Save potential and improved Villa defence underpin Martínez's FPL credentials

We all know about the attacking potential of Jack Grealish (£7.1m) and Ollie Watkins (£5.9) and new signing Ross Barkley (£5.9m) may have played his way into contention post-Liverpool too, however it’s not the Villains forward line I’m considering here.

Aston Villa might actually be a good defensive team! At the very least they are markedly better than they were for the first 29 Gameweeks of the 2019-20 season.

It has been difficult for me to believe they could change so drastically and I didn’t want to make too many assumptions based on “post-lockdown” alone, especially considering they were fighting for survival whilst some other teams were effectively on the beach.

Now however we’ve had a sample size of 12 matches where a significant improvement can be discerned including some genuinely tough fixtures – from Gameweek 30-38 last season they played Chelsea, Wolves, Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton.

From Gameweek 1-29 last season their expected goals conceded (xGC) was 2.03 per game. From Gameweek 30-38 plus the three matches played this season it’s down to 1.09 per match.

This is obviously a massive improvement, and although it’s probably too early to know whether it can be sustained it is clear they have made decent squad improvements at at the back bringing in Emiliano Martínez (£4.7m) and Matthew Cash (£5.0m).

My main concern right now with buying intro the Villa defence is that I’m not the only one to notice the improvement and they’re all priced above £4.5m now. The only exception is Matt Targett, but he hasn’t created a single chance or shot this season so far and it appears most of the team’s full back creativity is coming via the more expensive Cash on the right side.

With a range of cheap defenders like Stuart Dallas (£4.5m), Luke Ayling (£4.5m) or Tariq Lamptey (£4.7m) offering arguably better value elsewhere, I’m pushed into thinking that Martínez is the most viable option in the Villains rearguard.

Wolves struggling up front

Wolves attack is concerning. In four matches so far their expected goals (xG) is just 3.66, less than one per match.

Last season they were 7th best for xG with 54.54, an average of 1.44 a match. This season they are the 6th worst, with only the likes of Sheffield United, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Burnley and West Brom below them.

Of course it’s still early days, and we shouldn’t panic too much, but we do definitely need to keep monitoring the stats. Looking at chances created per 90, Rúben Neves (£5.4m) is 0.59 and João  Moutinho (£5.4m) stands at 2.08. This is down from the 0.88 and 2.23 from last season. It doesn’t look massive and could be altered quickly by a couple of hauls, but is nonetheless a worrying trend.

There have been some big changes in the first team that could be a contributing factor, with Nélson Semedo (£5.5m) coming in to replace Matt Doherty (£5.9m), as well as an injury to Jonny (£5.4m) and the sale of Diogo Jota (£6.3m). So on the positive front you could argue that this will settle as the new boys bed in and it’s certainly true that Wolves have an manager who has repeatedly proven he knows how to get the best out of his players. 
The ultimate question is how long do we give them to click, because it just doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment.

Manchester City out of sorts

Continuing in the vein of ‘attacks I’m a little concerned about’, I can’t fail to highlight Manchester City’s failure to get into forward gear.

There’s always been talk about Pep Guardiola liking a false 9, but it rarely happens in reality, especially in the league and right now they could really do with a proper number 9. It’s not totally clear when Gabriel Jesus (£9.4m) or Sergio Agüero (£10.4m) will be back and available, but those with City assets will be hoping it’s soon and they prove to be the catalyst City need to kick start their season.

For the first 20 minutes against Leeds it looked like just another game where Man City take control and grab a hatful of goals, so the question as usual would be to see who got the points – but it didn’t turn out that way. Once Leeds got into the game they made things difficult for City, and it wasn’t until Fernandinho (£5.5m) came on that City regained some semblance of control.

As if the eye-test weren’t enough, the stats tell a very clear story – Man City are currently creating 1.33 xG per game, down from 2.48 from last season.

Like Wolves this could in part be explained by a team needing time to adjust. Not only are they missing Agüero and Jesus, but in David Silva they have lost a key player in creating chances and making things tick.
It’s certainly too early to be writing off an attack that scored 102 goals last season, but with the injuries they have at the moment it’s probably not the best time to be doubling or tripling up.

Manchester United looking… worse

I’m not even sure where to start with Manchester United. Given what’s expected of them they have probably been THE worst team so far this season.

At 7.72 xGC they are the second worst defence statistically and are only kept off the bottom spot by West Brom, a stat that looks even worse when you consider United have only played three matches.

Apologists could put some of this down to a long season, followed by a shorter pre-season, but I think there’s more to it than that. The 4231 system continues to be used despite the biggest transfer of their summer being a central midfielder who just doesn’t look like fitting into the starting line-up any time soon. And the defence? Frankly it looks an absolute shambles at the moment with zero confidence.

Perhaps the summer’s off field events are still playing on Harry Maguire’s (£5.4m) mind. That’s the only charitable excuse I can think of to explain tackling your own player in the box, as he did with Luke Shaw (£4.9m) against Spurs.

Whatever the reason, there’s a huge drop in performance from last season where they were statistically the 3rd best team in the league defensively and only conceded three more goals than Liverpool and one more than Man City.

Unlike Wolves and Man City where patience can be justified, I don’t think that’s the case for Man United. In the next four Gameweeks they face Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton so it’s unlikely to get any easier.

Though it pains me to say it, there is just way too much value on offer elsewhere to warrant holding onto United players at the moment. It may be a case that you have bigger transfer priorities, but I’d imagine the likes of Bruno Fernandes (£10.5m) to Heung-Min Son (£9.0m) will be popular transfers this week, and for good reason.

The Burning FPL Questions – Gameweek 5
522 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Patron
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Guys, Son or Vardy (c)?

    1. Party time
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Vardy

        1. Patron
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Thanks! Ure not worried about Vardy being poor stats wise?

      • Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Guys.

        Sounds Belgian so he's bound to be good. 😀

        1. Patron
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Haha mates? Chaps? What’s the appropriate word

      • Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Son out of those 2, based on the fact that he is rested.

        1. Patron
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          And in form right. But worried a bit about WH, I don’t know exactly shy should I be, probably cause of the Lei game where they didn’t concede...
          Thanks tho!

    2. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What do I do here?? 0ft 0.5itb

      Martinez
      Robbo lamptey* Mitchell
      Salah kdb son soucek
      Werner jimi dcl

      Forster burke* vinagre** dunne

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I wouldn't take any hits on this. Sort Vinagre out next week

        1. Meganuts
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Agreed - priority for me would be another nailed defender to cover injuries and the fact that Palace have PVA close to fitness

    3. Mooster©️
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Still Salah(c)?

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Had a dream he scored a couple and that propelled me into the 800K zone, but that is probably just wishful thinking. I am still going Salah (C) though.

    4. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Team is looking terrible, but surely the manchester clubs can't be rubbish forever?
      Too late to wc now?

      McCarthy Button
      TAA James* CTaylor Ayling Mitchell*
      KDB* Sterling* Bruno* Soucek Bissouma
      Jimmy* Adams* DCL

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I wouldn't say that it is terrible - Adams and James the 2 most pressing players to solve. Not worth a WC or any hits though.

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Agree WC not needed.

      2. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        WC whenever you want.

        I'd still hold Bruno as United get loads of penalties and maybe move one of the City mids for Son.

      3. waltzingmatildas
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers guys.
        Would prefer to do Sterling to Son, but if KDB is out will have to be him.
        Also tempted by
        Sterling - Mane
        Adams to Antonio
        What do you reckon?

    5. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Click on the link below for my fixtures matrix showing the remaining full season schedule as it stands GW5 — GW38.

      Useful for short and long term planning including plotting possible Blank and Double Gameweeks ahead.

      - Premier League
      - Carabao Cup
      - FA Cup
      - Champions League
      - Europa League
      - International Break(s)

      https://twitter.com/legomane_fpl/status/1315910159613472773

      Colour friendly version:
      https://twitter.com/legomane_fpl/status/1315910171529486337

    6. Rash
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Best defender to rotate with lamptey?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        PVA

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Scrap that

        2. Rash
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Great shout but .2 out

      2. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        JWP

        1. dunas_dog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          KWP even!

          1. Rash
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Thats who I am currently on!

    7. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Dependant on KDB's performance against Arsenal (assuming he plays) I am very tempted to take a hit ahead of next week and switch KDB to Kane in a 3-4-3, instead of my current 3-5-2. Kane can then become Aguero further down the line if his form dips and City start banging them in. Too big of a risk and impatience? Don't usually like switching premiums

    8. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If KDB is ruled out I'll go for Son.

      A) Ings -> Kane -4
      B) Raul -> Kane -4
      C) No hit

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Usually I don't recommend hits, but I really like A. I would still advise C though

    9. Philip Jones's Diary
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Anyone else thinking Mane Salah double up?

      1. Riders of Yohan
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Not this week

      2. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Next week I am need Mané to drop by 0.1

    10. runupstream
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      That's not unreasonable. But maybe after GW5? Everton is in such a good form.

    11. Gunner1290
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      2 free transfers 0.7 in the bank. Any advise would be much appreciated

      McCarthy (button)
      Trent James Justin Mitchell (Niles)
      Kdb Salah Son(c) Bruno SaintMax
      DCL (Davis, Vasilev)

      1. Meganuts
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I would be inclined to beef up your attacking options by replacing Vassilev with Brewster and replace one of James/Justin/Mitchell as all at risk from squad rotation

    12. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      So KDB has been my captain all IB bur now not so sure with all the rumours. Son or salah vice if he is out?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Son VC

      2. Riders of Yohan
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Son imo

    13. Riders of Yohan
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Does this need a WC?

      1FT & 0ITB

      McCarthy
      TAA, Mitchell, Justin
      Salah, Sterling, KDB, Hamez, soucek
      Jimi, Brewster

      Nyland. Taylor, KWP, Adams

      Would appreciate any suggestions!

    14. chelseabrad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      On a wildcard with 3.8 ITB, what would you do?

      Martinez Steer
      Digne Saiss Justin Mitchell Dunne
      Salah Son Hamez Foden Neto
      Kane Wilson Bamford

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Change Dunne, Foden, Neto, Bamford and possibly Wilson.

        1. chelseabrad
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Why?

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Dunne - on borrowed time
            Foden - not convinced and rotation risk
            Neto - Wolves poor attacking output, see above,
            Bamford - regression imminent, don't rate him as a player and his finishing is unsustainable
            Wilson - don't mind so much, on penalties, but tricky immediate fixtures

            1. chelseabrad
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 5 months ago

              Foden do you not think is a decent option at 6.6m with Jesus & Aguero out? Had KDB there previously but not sure I want all those funds tied up in City assets at the moment?
              Who would you replace Bamford with? Not sure I want DCL aswell as Hamez

              1. Miguel Sanchez
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                3 years, 5 months ago

                Foden feels like trying to get City coverage. There are better options at 7.0 with Grealish/Barnes or 6.0 with Trossard.

                Watkins over Bamford for me.

      2. Riders of Yohan
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thinking long term I would still want one of TAA or Robbo. Plus you’re going to have a benching headache in a few weeks

    15. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Ryan Forster
      TAA Saiss Konsa Ayling Mitchell
      KDB Salah Grealish XXXX Stephens
      Kane DCL XXXX

      1. James Brewster
      2. Podence Maupay

      Thanks guys

    16. Muscout
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Do we think KDB will go down again before start of next GW?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Only if Pep says he is 100% out for the Arsenal game

    17. fpork
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Currently on wildcard. Any changes I should make?
      Martínez (Martin)
      Chilwell, Robertson, Konsa (Walker-Peters) (Mitchell)
      Son, Salah, Grealish, Rodríguez (Soucek)
      Maupay, Kane, Calvert-Lewin

      1. fpork
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Alternative is:
        Martínez (Martin)
        Chilwell, Saiss**, Konsa (Walker-Peters) (Mitchell)
        Son, Salah, Grealish, KDB*' (Soucek)
        Brewster**, Kane, Calvert-Lewin

        1. Meganuts
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Prefer your first team suggestion - but both look good. I think Barkley could be a good cut-price alternative to Grealish to increase your options of strengthening elsewhere

    18. Oggle22
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      G2G?
      Mccarthy
      TAA Taylor Mitchell
      Salah KDB Bruno Rodriguez Neto
      Mitrovic Jiminez

      Nyland KWP Saliba Davis

      Cheers

    19. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      On a WildCard would you rather have KDB or Kane (will definitely have Son)?

      1. The Mantis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        In exactly same situation as you and I'm with Kane atm

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          It’s so much easier if we go with Kane but it just feels terribly knee jerk to ditch KDB/ City - the fact KDB is more expensive makes it a real pain to have him though

          1. The Mantis
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            yep, we know that KDB will score big again at the end of the season, but atm maybe we go with the on form players like Kane at this stage. Once Aguero is back then KDB is a must. Just got to have collateral ready for when that day comes, it will probably mean a hit for me

    20. Gunner1290
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Best 3 defenders under 5.5?

    21. Greyling
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Best GK replacement for Pickford going forward?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Guaita

    22. The Mantis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Morning all, how's this WC?

      McCarthey (Button)
      TAA / Chilwell / Saiss (Lamptey / Mitchell)
      Salah / Son / Grealish / Jrod / Trossard
      Kane / DCL (Brewster)

      question mark over Trossard for me, I like him but not sure as a FPL asset? I could downgrade him then upgrade somewhere else. Also risky going with City of course

      1. The Mantis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        without City*

      2. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I’d be tempted to downgrade Chilwell to KWP (and go Martinez over McCarthy) to then upgrade Trossard & Brewster to a 4.5 mid and Maupay.

        I’m not particularly keen on the Everton attacking double up but will definitely have one of them

        1. The Mantis
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I've been playing about with that but I'm not keen on KWP as a player, don't rate him at all. Chilwell will surely score higher than him overall. I do want Martinez though

    23. chelseabrad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Rate my wildcard team

      Martinez Steer
      Robbo Digne Saiss Justin Mitchell
      Salah Son Hamez Foden Neto
      Kane Wilson Maupay

      Is my defence too expensive?

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Looks good. Not a big fan of digne as not on set pieces anymore, also Justin only good short term with pereira back soon

    24. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Fill in the blanks on WC

      Martinez (4.0)
      Robertson, Saiss, Lamptey, KWP, Mitchell
      Salah, Son, KDB, X, X
      Maupay, X, X

      Want to play 3-4-3 so a budget of £26.8m for 3 starters and a sub

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Presume you can’t afford Kane DCL grealish fodder? I like Brewster as 4.5 option so kane Brewster grealish soucek might work

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I wish! I’m 2.5m off that

          I can do your second option but it would mean playing Soucek or Brewster each week

          1. Pat Bonner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            If not too worried about Kane then could get much better balance with a combination of DCL/watkins/Wilson/Antonio and grealish/HRod/trossard

      2. Kabayan
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Puli, 4.5, DCL, Antonio

    25. fpork
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      1) Robertson, Maupay, James Rodriguez
      2) Saiss, Brewster, KDB

      1. chelseabrad
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        1

    26. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If you could only have 2 of these in your team - which 2 out of:

      A) Robertson
      B) KDB
      C) Kane

      1. chelseabrad
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        A and C

    27. fakelund
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Team isn't in fantastic shape, but I think its fine for this week, still holding WC so maybe pull the trigger on that for next week... Will wait for team news on KDB etc first though. GTG otherwise?

      McCarthy
      TAA - Digne - Taylor
      ASM - KDB - Son (c) - Havertz
      Wilson - Kane - Jimenez

      (Nyland - KWP - Reed - Douglas)

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Team looks good, might want pool next week though

        1. fakelund
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Cheers. Yeah basically my thoughts, Salah will be in whenever I WC

    28. smix
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      RMWCT
      Martinez
      Robbo Sa’iss Dallas
      Salah (c) Son Pulisic Grealish
      Kane Maupay DCL
      Martin Lamptey Lewis Stephens

      1. smix
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        No city is a worrying factor for now

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          See my question above - it basically comes down to losing one of KDB, Kane or Robertson

          Going without KDB makes it the easiest but it does feel very wrong

      2. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Is pulisic fit? I wouldn’t be in a rush to get him given it’s a hamstring injury

    29. RealSocialDads
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Most boring question of the week coming up...

      Start one:

      A. Mitchell (BHA)
      B. C.Taylor (wba)

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B