Pro Pundits - Zophar

Zøphar on £4.5m Brewster, the keep-or-sell De Bruyne dilemma and budget mids

Six-time top 5k finisher Zøphar shares his thoughts on a turbulent Premier League season so far.


The dreaded first international break is finally over and another FPL weekend lays ahead. I had hoped the arrival of FIFA 21 was going to prove a distraction, but art ended up imitating Premier League life far too well, serving up relentless goal-fests and bringing me right back to the chaotic first month of Fantasy Football.

For someone who values a clean sheet and defensive solidity, this has been uncomfortable viewing on both fronts, and I am hoping that a more ‘normal’ order is restored in the coming few weeks, in FIFA via patches and in the Premier League with some good coaching. 

Putting aside the avalanche of attacking hauls in Gameweeks 1-4, I decided to use this article to reflect upon some of the other interesting developments that have transpired thus far and their potential impact on the long road ahead.

Is Brewster worth his £4.5 millions?

Looking back over 10+ seasons of FPL , I can’t remember a single time we’ve had a first-choice striker available at the £4.5m base price. Perhaps Pavel Pogrebnyak back in the day but he was hardly a reliable pick, something I fully expect Brewster to become. A clinical finisher who has no interest in dropping deep and building up play, he is truly a gift from the FPL gods in a season where there are so many big hitters available.

As I mentioned on the FPL Wire pod, I don’t see Brewster purely as an eighth attacker or occasional sub. At a price of £4.5m, even if he only gets a return every third game, he’s more than justified his value.

Yes, Sheffield United do have several options up top, but this was a ‘statement’ signing from an otherwise prudent coach and in terms of goalscoring quality, Brewster promises to be head and shoulders above the others, so it’s hard to see him not cementing a spot in Wilder’s side early on at least.

Naturally, you could argue that it is worth spending a million odd more on another value pick such as the in-form Patrick Bamford (£5.8m) or Ollie Watkins (£5.9m). But I’d counter that you could also use that instead to upgrade the likes of Tyrick Mitchell (£4.1m), Jimmy Dunne (£4.0m) or another cut-price defender to Nelson Semedo (£5.5m) or Ben Chilwell (£5.6m), who are far more explosive picks. This quote from an excellent article by Hedge backs up the point (thanks for the heads-up, TopMarx!):

Overall, 0.5m spent upgrading at the back almost always nets you more points than spending it in midfield or attack. In the last three seasons, the best approach would have been to get the highest-scoring defenders, no matter the cost.

Bring on the budget differentials

Who has the best and worst upcoming FPL fixtures?

Whilst there’s no shortage of premium options in midfield, it’s the budget boys that I find more interesting to consider. Daniel Podence (£5.6m) has proved a popular choice after his performance in the first two Gameweeks, but I am not so optimistic on his prospects going forward. Wolves struggled without Adama Traore (£6.4m) against Fulham and Pedro Neto’s (£5.5m) improving displays cast a shadow on Podence’s security of starts. His xG per 90 of 0.10 is hardly inspiring either. Fortunately, there are several other options in this bracket to pick from.

Ross Barkley (£5.9m)

Whilst the more world-weary FPL managers may already be rolling their eyes at the prospect of another annual Ross Barkley bandwagon, I think this year it really could be different. As my podcast co-host Lateriser mentioned, Barkley thrives on being a big fish in a small pond.

As the shot map from the Liverpool game shows below, he was playing almost as a support striker and actually got in far better positions than Jack Grealish (£7.1m). His xG/90 this season (0.39) is second only to Jorginho (£5.1m) (1.13), and this includes some minutes which he played for Chelsea where he was never going to see as much of the ball.

Conclusion

It has been a frankly maddening start to the season and a true test of mettle for seasoned FPL managers, so it is easy to get carried away with frustration. Despite many of us finding more ‘spare’ time than usual, due to the pandemic and work-from-home scenarios, it remains vital not to overthink and obsess with your squad. FPL is an incredible game, offering much-needed distraction in these difficult times. Of course, selling Son before a 20+ point haul definitely hurts, but it’s not the end of the world – so please do prioritise your mental health over chasing points!

If your squad is struggling, you’re certainly not alone – many of the world’s top players are in the same position. But it really is very early days, the vast majority of the season lies ahead of us, so don’t let one or two decisions that have had unusually high variance outcomes shake your confidence. Forwards will tire, defences will tighten, crowds may even come back at some point and proven quality will out (even without a patch from EA!). So keep faith in the tried-and-tested process that has delivered for you, a top 10k rank is very much achievable even if you are residing at four million in the world now. 

Thanks for reading. 

The arguments for and against using a Wildcard in FPL Gameweek 3 1
494 Comments Post a Comment
  1. puhd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    How's this WC draft?

    McCarthy (Steer)
    Saiss Robertson Dallas Mitchel Taylor
    Son Sterling Salah Rodriguez Klich
    Brewster DCL Jimmy

    Thanks lads

    1. Detweiler
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Very nice - only question mark for me would be Saiss. Prefer Martinez to McCarthy too.

    2. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Don't like Saiss. Otherwise looks good.

  2. bitm2007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Jack Robinson nailed for as long as O'Connell is out ? I'm considering him for Sky Sports where he is dirt cheaper at 4.9m, there are no other nailed tempting options under 6.0m.

    1. redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yeah, hes come in whenever one of the the regular back 3 been injured/suspended

  3. Detweiler
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Watkins or Maupay?
    Semedo or Chilwell?

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maupay & Semedo

    2. Tingate
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Watkins
      Close but I'd just edge for Chilwell

    3. Ron_Swanson
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Watkins and Chilwell

    4. Aubamewho
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maupay
      Chilwell

  4. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who's the best Mid for 6.9 or under? Have Grealish so a Barkely double up not favoured.....

    1. Detweiler
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Trossard? The article above pretty much runs through all your options.

    2. Tingate
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Trossard

  5. Van der Faart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on this? Needs a hit but maybe not a wildcard. Reluctant to use it so early.

    McCarthy

    TAA Holding Coady

    Podence Salah KDB Son

    Adams DCL Jimi

    Nyland* Bissouma Bavies Dallas.
    0 ITB

    1. Tingate
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd play Dallas over Holding, and do Adams > Watkins.

  6. I Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    KDB (c) if fit?

    1. Detweiler
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      That's my plan - hopefully we get something concrete from the Press Conference.

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        you know we probably won't....

        1. Detweiler
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Of course!

  7. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which of these?

    A) KDB + Watkins + (Brewster)

    B) 6.9 mid- any ideas who? + Kane + (Brewster) No city at all then

    C) Kane + Watkins + (Bissouma)

    1. Jimjam
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C for now

  8. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wilson or Watkins (have Maupay)?

  9. NUFCAndrew
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    0.8 ITB 1 FT. Thoughts?

    McCarthy Steer

    TAA Saiss Justin Mitchell Branthwaite

    Salah KDB Bruno Soucek Bissouma

    Ings DCL Mitro

    1. Gizzachance
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      maybe one of mitchell braith out, mitchell on borrowed time
      braith no game time and injured
      lamptey, c taylor kwp etc

  10. The Mandalorian
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Everton have good defensive stats but that is likely due to a better midfield who can hold onto the ball. Everton did get beat 5 - 2 at Anfield last season under a different manager. Achelotti has a good record against Klopp.
    Evertons ground traditionally has a great atmosphere but obviously not now.
    Any thoughts

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      same can be said for anfield without the crowd
      the international break just complicates things even more
      10 years to the day since everton last beat liverpool in the league
      just wouldn't surprise me if they won with the covid issues liverpool have had
      as a red fan, I hope they can adapt and play a little deeper

  11. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on Werner (c) this week?

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nope

    2. I Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Good option.

    3. Hasselbaink Forever - Defoe…
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bold

    4. redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      nope, not until he plays up top centrally

  12. ManUwho
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Why haven't they added the new players????

    1. Joey Tribbiani
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      ??

      1. ManUwho
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Partey, canavi etc

        1. Joey Tribbiani
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          they have been added, scroll down and click on second page of players

          1. Joey Tribbiani
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            or search with their name

          2. ManUwho
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Cheers!!

        2. The Mighty Hippo
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Keep hoping that you can't find them. Take it as a message.

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      sort by price not points

    3. CAPTAIN_WALES
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      They are on there... go to the bottom of that clubs team sheet and you will see an option to go to the second page

  13. Gizzachance
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    thoughts, on w/c
    A mitchell to dallas\other 4.5? keep sais
    B keep mitchell, do saiss to chillwell
    have robbo kwp an lamptey
    cheers

  14. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    WC final 3 slots... and stuck....

    A) KDB + Watkins + (Brewster) (3-5-2)

    B) Trossard or any Mid up to 6.9 M + Kane + (Brewster) (3-5-2)

    C) Kane + Watkins + (Bissouma) + 1M ITB (3-4-3)

    Current WC Draft:

    Martinez (Foster)
    TAA Chillwell Lamptey (Dallas Mitchell)
    Salah XXX Son Grealish James Rodrigues
    DCL XXX XXX

    1. Jimjam
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I like the look of (C) at the moment.

    2. redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C looks great

  15. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Grealish or Pulisic if money no issue

    1. Rinseboy
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      grealish for now

    2. Robe Wan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pulisic

    3. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pulisic

    4. Hasselbaink Forever - Defoe…
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pulisic

  16. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench order here gents?

    A) Bissouma (cry)
    B) Dallas (WOL)
    C) Mitchell (BHA)

    GL all!

  17. have you seen cyan
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Why are the games so spread out this season, one game at 1500 on Saturday is the new norm. Totally sucks, the new schedule is absolutely terrible

    1. Robe Wan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I prefer it tbh.

    2. Ron_Swanson
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      It’s so fans can always watch their teams

      1. have you seen cyan
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        They support twenty teams? Makes no sense, just pure tv rights greed ruining football.
        Poster above how can you prefer that, some weeks the game son Saturday are all toss and we have no interest in watching them.
        Premier league dying a little more every year it’s whack. I have zero interest in Saints vs Chelsea frankly

        1. nani is michael jackson
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          If you’re not arsed with a fixture, just wait 90 minutes. Don’t really see an issue. Did they ditch the Friday night games though?

  18. Rinseboy
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Surprised DCL is not getting captained more. Form over fixtures surley for a striker?

    1. have you seen cyan
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I have him captain

  19. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    have digne chillwell kdb all flagged. no ft left. hold tight and hope for the best or take a hit and for who ? thanks

    1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would lose Digne...........possible for the spurs man Reguilon

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        cheers

  20. vincentwsho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which would you rather have on a wildcard in a 3-4-3?

    A) Jorghino as 1st sub, but starting and rotating Dallas/KWP and Lamptey as the 3rd defender

    B) Starting and rotating Saiss and Lamptey as the 3rd defender, having 4.5 midfielder as 2nd sub

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      May as well play Jorginho every week, you have him for a reason and that reason is a Chelsea pens.

  21. Hasselbaink Forever - Defoe…
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Last bit of WC -

    Grealish & Soucek
    or
    Barkley & Trossard

    Cheers

    1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      G&S

  22. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best ~5.5 def to have along Robo and Chilwell ?

    1. Castagne
    2. Semedo
    3. Reguilon

    Also, worth keeping 0.5ITB on WC or upgrade e.g. 5th mid/def ?

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Castagne

  23. Rbyrne95
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Big Choices to make (Wildcard Played) 0.1 in bank.

    A) Keep Squad (I quite like Wilson considering the Pen situ atm and Man U's form)
    B) Wilson to Brewster and upgrade defender to get Chillwell/Zouma
    C) ^ and upgrade def to Robertson somehow?
    E) ^ and get Podence/McGinn in Mid instead of Bissouma
    F) Other?

    Martinez (Steer)
    Konsa-Saiss-Dunne (Kilman, Konsa)
    Salah-Sterling-Son-Rodriguez (Bissouma)
    DCL-Kane-Wilson

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Who's the first Konsa?

      1. Rbyrne95
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Aye but its not 100%, just throwing about in Wildcard atm. Had Dallas, Lamptey and Justin in that spot when mucking around.

        1. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Justin worth keeping until you know for definite if he'll lose out to Pereira.

          1. Rbyrne95
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Lol just realized spelling, first is KWP

  24. akhilrajau
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez
    Robortson,James, Saiss
    Salah,KDB, Zaha, Podence
    Calvert-Lewin, Jiminez, Ings
    Bench: Peacock-farrel, Taylor, Bissouma, Mitchell
    FT: 1 Bank:0.9m

    A. Zaha-> Rodriguez
    B. Ings, Jiminez -> Kane, Wilson/Maupay(-4)
    C. Save transfer and hold zaha for one more week
    D. KDB, Jiminez -> Son, Rodriguez (-4) , Kane (-8)

  25. Ramsays Raw Steak
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you think Townsend can match Zaha's points or be a good differential?
    If i do take Townsend i can bring Castagne
    So its more like zaha and target or
    Castagne and Townsend
    On a WC

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No. Pereira or Trossard. Zaha is inconsistent, Townsend worse.

      1. Ramsays Raw Steak
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Sttooooppppppppp itttttt

        1. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Medium rare Gordon, you said medium rare 😉

  26. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Guys.......Pulisic or Mahrez ?

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      ouli

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pulisic.

  27. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Worth sacrificing a Pool defender to get this? Who would be the best 5.0 defender and Barkley or Trossard?

    Martinez
    5.0 Lamptey Ayling
    Salah Sterling Son Hamez Trossard
    DCL Kane

    Forster; Brewster, KWP, Kilman (fodder)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Another option could be to drop Trossard and play Brewster

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Too many heavy hitters imo.. People try it every year and it fails every year

      1. DT42
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Usually works for me, OR 281 last year

        1. FC Hakkebøf
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          FPL ID? Wrong ID in profile?

    3. DT42
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      That’s the front 8 I’m aiming for too but I’m 0.5 short.
      Zouma at 5.0 looks good, or Saiss

  28. The Mighty Hippo
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I've kept Havertz in my wildcard team with a view to swapping him to Pulicic if the American looks better.

    That makes sense, right? I don't need to go early on Pulisic?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bit annoying to have to book in a transfer on such a sideways move but I can see the logic.

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wait for presser

    3. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      all the talk is that Puli will start .........he did come on for about 10mins last GW and has had two weeks rest/training.....I would start him and save the FT

  29. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    If Soyuncu is out and with James not nailed should i take a hit?Coleman/James/Soyuncu are my three defenders with Targett/Douglas my subs.

  30. Make United Great Again
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    We confident Pulisic will start then?