Hi fpl managers
This is my first article in FPL world. Something I have dreamed of for three years is to share my own strategies about FPL with the community: strategies that I could believe are unique.
Finally I can submit my own article thanks to FFScout, and I’m grateful to the kind suggestion I have received via e-mail from my preferred Pro Pundit Sam Bonfield for the upcoming round of Community Trials after I have completed the Scout Network and Academy form on FFScout website.
Introduction
This is my fourth season in playing FPL. It is worth mentioning here that from my very first days in playing FPL I was a huge admirer of two approaches: the first was the stats-based player-selecting strategy; and the second was to always prefer premium goalkeepers and defenders.
The first trend needs no words from me to show how it is important to consider stats in making players transfers.
Whilst my reasoning behind the second strategy was that I decided to consider my FPL team as an aeroplane of 12 empty seats – 10 seats plus one seat for the captain whose points are multiplied by two – that have to be filled with passengers (players) who score six points each every Gameweek. Thereby the aeroplane will reach my preset destination of “airport 2,736”, that is a new FPL champion has arrived.
Of course I consider this to be definitely impossible to achieve 72 points each Gameweek in this tricky game, but “at least” planning to achieve this average will put me in a very good place by the end of the season.
Clean sheets ensure at least six points for shot stoppers and backliners, even without any attacking returns, and it is an unarguable fact that the “big teams” have the highest probability of getting clean sheets. So I thought it is of enough wisdom to fill at least four seats with goalkeeper and defenders from those big teams or the so-called “Big Six” teams.
My plan was always to get in the maximum number of premium goalkeepers and defenders a budget of £100m can afford, without sacrificing an offensive/defensive balance in my team. That is especially important when it comes to the defenders who play in more advanced roles (full-backs), or centre-backs who have significant aerial threat.
What happened this season?
In my pre-season tinkering time I had a gut feeling that this season will have the highest-ever conceded goals.
That feeling was a result of the remarkable trend of the PL teams in summer transfers time to get in first class attacking players including defenders who are well-known for their great attacking returns.
So I decided to reconsider my aeroplane as if it has six Economy Class seats plus five First Class seats including one VIP seat: that is one budget goalkeeper + three budget defenders + six premium offensive assets (as the captain score is multiplied by two) + any two players that the remaining budget can afford, whose guaranteed total combined points will be above 200.
That strategy has been fairly successful so far as I have an average of 59.6 after five Gameweeks which is by far my best start ever.
Selecting a “Set and Forget” Goalkeeper
It was Sam Johnstone (£4.5m) who I decided from day one to bring in as my “Set and Forget” goalkeeper, backed with 111 saves last championship campaign, and also for his well-known great combined saves.
I thought that if West Brom can get clean sheets it will definitely be due to his efforts between the sticks, which means at least two save points each match and hence bonus points to follow.
Also in tougher matches I predicted him to score save points that will cancel any minus points due to every two conceded goals.
That was more than enough to convince me to bring him from the very start of the campaign, as such a return was more than a good return to have from a budget goalkeeper.
Unfortunately, I had to wait five Gameweeks to see that estimation come true as Johnstone finally scored nine points against Burnley from a clean sheet, four saves, and two bonus points.
Although he was predicted not to achieve clean sheets against Leicester, Everton or Chelsea, the fact that West Brom have conceded the maximum percentage of shots in the six-yard box so far (14%) was not encouraging enough for me to predict more clean sheets from them in the upcoming fixtures even against “non-big teams”.
Stats time
I had to rethink about West Brom’s No 1, and to turn on my own estimator in order to select another “set and forget” shot stopper on my Wildcard who serves my plan in filling the goalkeeper Economy Class seat with as many points as possible.
Hence, I used my own stats table that I created in the FFScout members area specifically to estimate which goalkeepers are due to make more saves. It is a simple stats table and does not consider the more complicated stats such as xGA (expected goals against), as I do not believe in that stat at all, but it worked well for me last season in predicting how Burnley’s Pope will end the season with good clean sheets, save points, and bonuses.
Last season, Burnley had the highest percentage of conceded shots from outside the box (41%), followed by Bournemouth (40%), and Sheffield united (38%).
Although Bournemouth have been relegated, the fact that Aaron Ramsdale (£4.9m) had 125 saves and that he was by a big margin the outstanding player for the Cherries, and that relegation was mainly due to unpredictable poor performance from their regular assets, are unarguable.
This season so far, which I can fairly call “clean sheet-less” season has introduced Emiliano Martinez (£4.8m) and “the now-injured” Karl Darlow (£5.0m) as the outstanding players between the sticks.
But from the “shots conceded out of the box” point of view, it is Arsenal who have conceded the highest percentage (51%) – by a big margin from both Newcastle (40%) and Aston Villa (33%).
In fact Arsenal are the only team to have conceded more shots out of the box than in the box (51% to 41%). I like to call this the “Arteta Effect”.
“Mikel Arteta made Arsenal more organised” those were Raheem Sterling‘s (£11.6m) words after facing Arsenal last Gameweek, and I find it true, as we saw the expansive Man City score just one goal in their two meetings since Arteta’s arrival at Arsenal.
My stats table also emphasises that Bernd Leno (£5.0m) has the most successful passes among all goalkeepers so far due to the “Arteta Effect”. And a big margin above Martinez and Darlow. Both Leno and Martinez have the same saves (14) compared to the 28 saves of Darlow.
But from an FPL scoring point of view, 19 of those 28 saves were against Tottenham and Manchester United, which will not be the case in facing other non-big teams (Darlow saved three against West Ham, four against Brighton, and two against Burnley), which saw Darlow scoring just 11 points against them so far.
Finally, when comparing players performance, I like to breakdown their points to estimate how likely they are to score points in the upcoming fixtures. And next, I will compare Leno against Martinez, who have got the highest goalkeeper points so far.
Let’s begin with Martinez:
- 8 pts from four appearances
- 12 pts from three clean sheets
- 3 pts from six saves against Liverpool and five saves against Leicester City
- 5 pts from saved penalty against Sheffield United
- 4 pts as Bonus
- -1 against Liverpool for conceding two goals
This means that 54% of his overall points were due to clean sheets and one saved penalty. I like to look at clean sheet points as share-points between goalkeepers and their backline.
Also, the saved penalty against Sheffield united was to a large extent due to the poor shooting from John Lundstram (£5.3m). But I do not say that Martinez is not a very good goalkeeper, of course. It is just for comparing how points were scored in FPL.
In case of Bernd Leno:
- 10 pts from five appearances
- 4 pts from just one clean sheet
- 2 pts from five saves against Liverpool and four saves against Leicester City
- 2 pts as Bonus
- -1 against Liverpool for conceding three goals
That is a clean sheet percentage of just 23% of his overall points.
From the above analysis I can estimate that as clean sheets improve for Arsenal, Leno will climb the goalkeeper rankings, and it will come sooner rather than later in my opinion.
One more issue still needs to be solved here as Martinez is selected by 24.2% of managers compared to just 9.6% for Leno. That, of course, counts in the favour of Leno as a possible differential. But in case Martinez scores more points from clean sheets, that means problems to non-owners (as the case for me).
Actually I prefer to get in Ezri Konsa (£4.6m) instead of Martinez. As I mentioned above, clean sheet points are share-points between goalkeeper and his backline, and at just £4.6m Konsa will be my choice alongside Leno. At £5.0m that means a total of £9.6m compared to £9.8m if I chose to get in Martinez (£4.8m) and the cheapest nailed-on asset in Arsenal defence Hector Bellerin (£5.0m).
The End
Thank you for taking the time to read my article on my goalkeeper selection strategy, I hope you found it worth reading.
3 years, 5 months ago
Thank you for submitting El Estadístico. The rationale of selecting goalkeepers from teams who concede a high percentage of shots outside the box is a good one. And an increase in successful passes is good news for Leno in terms of bonus points. I will move Leno up my watchlist 🙂