Pro Pundits

Loss aversion and why we hold on to underperforming players in FPL

In my previous article, I discussed the difficulties we often find in transferring out players who have been performing well, even when it might appear beneficial for us to do so. 

However, sometimes we hold on to players too long even when they’re not doing well. This article is the Part One of a two-piece series that will consider the possible causes for that behaviour and how we might overcome them to make better transfer decisions.

Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in humans that describes our tendency to fear losses more than we value gains. Specifically, scientific studies have shown that we fear losses approximately twice as much as we value gains. 

This probably explains why we’re reluctant to take hits on players who are unlikely to ‘explode’, but it also goes some way to explaining why we hold on to underperforming players too long.

Arguably the number one source of anxiety among Fantasy managers comes from transferring a player out who you suspect might suddenly start scoring, something that always seems to happen. 

The hundreds of thousands of managers who transferred Timo Werner (£9.3m) out ahead of his two goals and assist in Gameweek 5 can probably relate to this feeling. It is, essentially, a feeling of points lost. Because we anticipate this feeling, we fail to act as a result.

Warped Reality

In reality, players we transfer out probably don’t score nearly as often as we think, we just remember the instances when they do, thus mentally inflating their frequency. It also doesn’t necessarily become a bad action to have removed a previously underperforming player, just because that player suddenly decides to start scoring that Gameweek.

While it might feel like this kind of thing is a matter of luck, one of the key skill elements of FPL is identifying the contextual factors that influence whether a player will score or not. 

Taking Werner as an example again, he had been previously playing out of position on the left wing and a move to the central striker position seemingly improved his prospects. However, he was also playing against a Southampton team who played a high defensive line, something that suits pacy players like Werner. 

Therefore, if either or both of these conditions are removed, it’s possible that Werner will go back to underperforming. The skill, therefore, is figuring out what conditions are important to the prospects of a player, and whether they will be consistently present.

If the conditions that contributed to a player’s sudden change in form are not sustainable, managers who transferred them out should not lose sleep over their decision, particularly if it enabled a move to an alternative with better long-term prospects. The spectre of this occurring should also not deter a manager from making a move if it makes objective sense based on whatever standards they employ to make their decisions.

It’s not because of you

Most importantly, although it might feel like it, a player did not start scoring because you transferred them out. That kind of ‘magical thinking’ can quickly sabotage a Fantasy manager’s season as it removes logic and objectivity and puts events firmly into the hands of chance. 

Stick to your trusted methods and, if they happen to fail you one Gameweek, console yourself with the knowledge that it absolutely, definitely, happens to everyone.

In Part Two, I’ll be discussing the ‘Endowment Effect’, coffee mugs, and why we sometimes prefer our low performers to others’ high performers.

1,687 Comments Post a Comment
  1. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best move now with Jrod injury;

    A. Davies >> Robbo (4-4-2)
    B. Davis >> Antonio / Watkins / Maupay (3-4-3)
    C. Davis+Bissouma >> Watkins+Barkley/Tross (-4)

    McCarthy
    TAA, Mitchell, Saiss
    Pulisic, Salah, Rodríguez**, Son,
    DCL, Ings
    (Nyland, Biss, Justin, XXX)

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B with Maupay.

    2. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd do B, antonio

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Fixtures are terrible though?

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          They are, but I think he can still get something. Underlying stats are there

    3. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Who with matey?

    4. _Gunner
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B with Maupay

  2. mrtapio
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start Chilwell or Kilman?

    Brewster befor or after Chilwell/Kilman on bench?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Chill

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Chill also

    3. _Gunner
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Chilwell

  3. G Banger
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Morning, bench order correct on this?

    Martinez
    Chillwell, TAA, Semedo, PVA
    Salah, Hamez**, Son, Grealish
    Kane, DCL

    Brewster, Mitchell, Stephens

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mitchell 1st imo

    2. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mitchell first on bench they are against Fulham

    3. G Banger
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers both

  4. Fernando Torres
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one...

    A) Bale
    B) Wilson
    C) James Rodr

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bale firs bench

    2. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

      1. WE GO FOR IT
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Actually, A

    3. SUPER 11
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C wont play

    4. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Don’t understand how you can have bale and be benching him for that fixture

  5. LIARS POKER
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best replacement for Ben Davies?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Lamptey

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      the player at Spurs who has just taken his place?

    3. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looking for a Doherty replacement. I'm between Konsa and Lamptey.
      Currently on Konsa as he lets me get Ziyech next week.

      1. Tinkermania
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Aurier

        1. WE GO FOR IT
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I think they both would be rotated. So, no point picking either.

    4. SUPER 11
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mings

  6. RIDZ
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone keep James even though you have DCL?

    1. nikzgfx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    2. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      hold

    3. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      no, never owned him!

    4. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      might just be a hoax to take the heat of Pickford ... ‘look VVD injured a Liverpool player too’ type of thing

  7. waltzingmatildas
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bottom,
    GTG? Right bench order?
    Mccarthy
    TAA mitchell ayling
    Sterling Bruno son soucek
    Kane(c) dcl antonio
    (Button bissouma ctaylor James)

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      gtg

  8. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Gomez for Liverpool ... now nailed and up for corners with VVD out, Klopp keeping a defensive mid in front of the defence, TAA sitting back and defending, nice fixtures ... a bargain at 5.4? 😉

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Isn’t Matip more of a threat from set pieces?

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        not sure Matip will start

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Prob not but Gomez hasn’t scored in PL before. Does he even go up for corners?

    2. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I don't remeber whne was the las time he scored more than 6 points
      0 attacking thread for 5.4.
      Nah

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I don’t remember the last time he played without VVD going up for corners though

        1. Peter Ouch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I hope you are right but I doubt mate!

    3. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Are you saying you expecting more attacking returns from Gomez than TAA? No disrespect but that's wishful thinking.

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        no i am not lol ... just saying that Gomez will have a greater attacking threat now with VVD out whilst playing alongside Fabinho

    4. FPLHaggis
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I briefly considered Gomez on WC. There is an argument to say that he is now value at 5.4m, but only if nailed and Liverpool reach their benchmark of approx. 15 clean sheets.

      But I see a regression in clean sheets.
      Injury prone.
      Matip will go up for corners, unsure if he will be up if paired with Fabinho.
      Hard to see him in the BAPs conversation

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        same, on Wild Card and looking at options and thinking out of the box. Maybe I should throw away the box instead 🙂

    5. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Was he up for set pieces? He might be a good alternative but in Matip they have another one. If they be a pair matip is the one to have. Pool have decent fixtures to come so maybe. Alisson also back so that might help

  9. andres
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Already took a hit.... no bench and james out... play WC?

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    Taa konsa mitchell (justin, holding)
    salah son hamez* podence (stephens)
    DCL Jimi kane
    0.3, 0 FT.

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yip

    2. mox81
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Only if you know what you'll do with it... team looks good already! I'd spend 4 pts on replacing Justin/Holding and know that you'll likely recoup 2pts min and poss do better. Kilman, Lamptey etc have a good fixture?

    3. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Normally not a hit but you have potentially some issues in def soon, so Holding for a nailed on def could save you some trouble in the future.

  10. mrtapio
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kilman or Brewster first on bench? (likely to play for Rodriguez)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kilman - another 9 pointer incoming

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Brewster

    3. SUPER 11
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kilman

    4. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      doubt Brewster will start

  11. Jdpz
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play
    A) Tierney
    B) Justin

  12. Remo85
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    People thinking Mahrez on the bench or getting a start?

    1. Machine_Gunnerz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      i thought he should be starting. No one else to take his position except torres

  13. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you rate Salah as a more explosive captain option than Kane?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Both explosive

    2. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yes

    3. adr3nalin
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Goal scoring mid vs goal scoring striker. I say Salah for this week

  14. adr3nalin
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone think Palace defence will be good for the next 8 or so? Not many clean sheets but not conceded too many either.

    I have Mitchell and Sakho currently but neither are safe picks anymore.

    Do I switch to ward or cahill (only have 4.5 to spend), although Cahill also just back from injury.

    Or do I double up on Villa defence and bring in Targett (have Emi in goals).

    Or wait and see?

    Thanks!

    1. SUPER 11
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      PVA is worth looking as he can score couple of goals in the next 8 and lucky cleansheets in between

      1. adr3nalin
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Can't afford him

  15. SUPER 11
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone considering Benrahma after GW7 ?

    1. Hot Fuzz
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hell yeah but have first to see how he is fitting in and minutes wise

  16. sneif4
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wildcard look good?

    4.0 Martinez
    James Mitchell Castagne Saiss Digne
    Zaha Grealish Son Rodriguez 4.4
    Kane DCL Ings

    2.9 ITB

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I don't like it

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Sorry pressed post too soon!
        Don't like the defence, needs another big hitter in midfield I think.

        1. sneif4
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I would have settled for your first post! Why don't you like the defence? I agree about midfield though, think I probably need another big hitter

          1. R.C
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            James is not nailed. Digne is overpriced.

          2. waltzingmatildas
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            James - I have but looking to lose.
            Maybe too much money there? I'd downgrade one, and maybe ings to upgrade zaha

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      James Mitchell & 4.4 won’t start - you don’t have a bench at all

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      downgrade Ings and upgrade 4.4 and defence

    4. skodaole2
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      James and Mitchell in WC defence i wouldnt agree. Rodriguez is injured, no point at all to take him. I d change the two James's definitely

    5. DantheManinaPan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nope

      1. sneif4
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks for all the advice. I think I put this together too hastily!

  17. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    On WC which is better
    A) kane , 4.5,3.9
    B) Brewster,Son,konsa/bellarin

    1. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

  18. LIARS POKER
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Grealish worth 1.2 more than Barkley? Or Barkley at 6.0 the better value pick?

    1. Good Times
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Stats justify grealish if say, doesn't mean Barkley won't get points. Also depends how you use the money

    2. skodaole2
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Depends what you d do with this extra 1.2, i d say Barkley is worth it due to low ownership

  19. skodaole2
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Would you take a hit here to bench Justin?

    Martinez
    Targett Rob Castagne Justin
    Salah Son Pereira
    Kane Jimenez Mitrovic

    McCarthy Dier* James R.* Reed 0FT 0.6 ITB

    a) No hits, play double LEI def vs ARS
    b) Take a hit to remove Dier
    c) Take a hit to remove James R.
    d) Take two hits to bring in Kilman and Havertz and play no LEI defence
    e) Anything else

    1. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      How did you end up with double Leicester? Swap one of them for a Palace defender who is nailed.

  20. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mitchell will start right?

    1. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No, left back 😉

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think PVA starts this one and Mitchell comes on in the second half

      1. Indpush
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Last week I thought PVA would come in for a spell in the second half. Now I agree with you. Could still come out in the second half but I'm leaning to him starting

    3. Jarnathan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Everyone is saying PVA starts ahead of Mitchell, but he's had zero minutes. Has anyone got any data saying this is possible after long term injury?

      1. Indpush
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Data on it being possible? How would it possibly be impossible?

        1. Jarnathan
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          He hasn't played a game of football in over 3 months. You think you can just come straight back and play 60 minutes?

          Most players are eased back by coming on as substitutes.

          Unless you can find me an example of someone who didn't play 3 months of fooball and then played in the starting 11?

          1. Indpush
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            I'm not at my computer at the moment to access that particular data file on 3 month long injured players starting their first game back so we will have to wait on that.

            I will say with great confidence though that it is not impossible he starts and even if data shows it's never happened before, which seems unlikely.

            Although your intimated point that it is a rare occurrence or that it may have never happened, is logical, I still believe he will start. He has had another week after being on the bench to train and I suspect it was turned up a notch for him to ready him for the start.

  21. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A Brewster goal this weekend and that price is only going one way

    1. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Another bench and his price will only go the other way

  22. Muscout
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    McCarthy
    Chillwell, Castagne, Lamptey
    Salah, Sterling, Son, Hamez, Soucek
    Kane, DCL

    Steer, Brewster, Mitchell, Branthwaite

    0.2 itb, make a transfer or save? Brewster to come in for Hamez

  23. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Ings to Kane for free. Makes sense?

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Also have Son.

    2. Good Times
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah makes sense did the same. But he prepared for ings to score, it's just bound to happen

      1. teneighty
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        This comment matches the article well.

  24. Good Times
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Posting on the old article by mistake

    I'm sure people are asking this, Jimi isn't looking consistent and price ceiling was always low. Post decent fixtures which sub 7mil striker would you get
    A) wilson
    B) maupay
    C) Antonio
    Others

    Thanks

  25. Maddamotha
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Worth holding onto Mitchell and Kilman on a wildcard?

    1. Denis Tueart on the wing
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yes = more cash elsewhere

    2. DantheManinaPan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No way. Pick one

    3. Denis Tueart on the wing
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Excellent rotation for the next 7 weeks (as a fourth defender)

      1. Maddamotha
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Will they start tho? Both are at risk of losing their place?

  26. MikeBravo
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Currently have Pulisic and Jimenez. Money in bank.
    Should I take a hit and go:

    A. Pulisic and Aguero*, or
    B. Bruno* and Jimenez, or
    C. Stick?

    Any thoughts appreciated.

  27. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    My couch not big enough to hide without owning Kane:

    A) Werner > Kane
    B) Jimenez > Kane

    1. Good Times
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd do B as Chelsea generally look better attacking than wolves. And you can downgrade werner when another striker hits form

    2. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not this week. Those 2 will potentially haul more than Kane.

    3. Indpush
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Would be worth relieving yourself of your fears alone.

      For free, B)

      1. French Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Jimenez has such a great fixture as well. Seems like a case where bringing in Kane this week could cost me points as well.

        Don’t know why ppl are so keen on holding on to Werner ?

        1. Indpush
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          All back from being injured and had play time with the team. Could have gelled. Warner scored and could very well get hot?

  28. gstegnar
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Button - McCarthy
    Webster - Mitchell - TAA- Dier - KWP
    Son - Podeste - Salah - Bissouma - Havertz
    DCL - Wilson - Ings

    1FT, 3.5 mil left in the bank

    1) Bissouma/Podeste to Barkley

    next GW Ings to Kane. Thoughts?

    1. AlternativeB
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wouldn't ship out Podence this round

  29. AlternativeB
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    No transferes this round. G2G? (Castagne as first sub for JRod)

    Martinez (Forster)
    Robertson Lamptey Saiss (Castagne, Mitchell)
    Salah Grealish Son Rodriguez (Bissouma)
    Kane DCL Wilson

  30. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any Leeds fans? Does Stuijk create the same way as Kalvin?

    1. Jönny
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not really. He will do a good job of the defensive side of things and is a good passer of the ball.. but Kalvin is irreplaceable.

    2. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Far from it