Pro Pundits

Loss aversion and why we hold on to underperforming players in FPL

In my previous article, I discussed the difficulties we often find in transferring out players who have been performing well, even when it might appear beneficial for us to do so. 

However, sometimes we hold on to players too long even when they’re not doing well. This article is the Part One of a two-piece series that will consider the possible causes for that behaviour and how we might overcome them to make better transfer decisions.

Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in humans that describes our tendency to fear losses more than we value gains. Specifically, scientific studies have shown that we fear losses approximately twice as much as we value gains. 

This probably explains why we’re reluctant to take hits on players who are unlikely to ‘explode’, but it also goes some way to explaining why we hold on to underperforming players too long.

Arguably the number one source of anxiety among Fantasy managers comes from transferring a player out who you suspect might suddenly start scoring, something that always seems to happen. 

The hundreds of thousands of managers who transferred Timo Werner (£9.3m) out ahead of his two goals and assist in Gameweek 5 can probably relate to this feeling. It is, essentially, a feeling of points lost. Because we anticipate this feeling, we fail to act as a result.

Warped Reality

In reality, players we transfer out probably don’t score nearly as often as we think, we just remember the instances when they do, thus mentally inflating their frequency. It also doesn’t necessarily become a bad action to have removed a previously underperforming player, just because that player suddenly decides to start scoring that Gameweek.

While it might feel like this kind of thing is a matter of luck, one of the key skill elements of FPL is identifying the contextual factors that influence whether a player will score or not. 

Taking Werner as an example again, he had been previously playing out of position on the left wing and a move to the central striker position seemingly improved his prospects. However, he was also playing against a Southampton team who played a high defensive line, something that suits pacy players like Werner. 

Therefore, if either or both of these conditions are removed, it’s possible that Werner will go back to underperforming. The skill, therefore, is figuring out what conditions are important to the prospects of a player, and whether they will be consistently present.

If the conditions that contributed to a player’s sudden change in form are not sustainable, managers who transferred them out should not lose sleep over their decision, particularly if it enabled a move to an alternative with better long-term prospects. The spectre of this occurring should also not deter a manager from making a move if it makes objective sense based on whatever standards they employ to make their decisions.

It’s not because of you

Most importantly, although it might feel like it, a player did not start scoring because you transferred them out. That kind of ‘magical thinking’ can quickly sabotage a Fantasy manager’s season as it removes logic and objectivity and puts events firmly into the hands of chance. 

Stick to your trusted methods and, if they happen to fail you one Gameweek, console yourself with the knowledge that it absolutely, definitely, happens to everyone.

In Part Two, I’ll be discussing the ‘Endowment Effect’, coffee mugs, and why we sometimes prefer our low performers to others’ high performers.

1,687 Comments Post a Comment
  1. wheato
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez / Button
    TAA / Castagne / KWP / Lamptey / Mitchell
    Salah / Son / Barnes / Trossard / Anguissa
    Jimenez / Ings / DCL

    1FT 2.5m

    A - Barnes to Barkley
    B - Jimi/Ings to Kane
    C - Both for -4
    D - Save and 2FT / mini WC next?

    1. screamer73
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B or D

    2. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      D

      1. Pegboy
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        That defence needs a little work, so a mini-WC seems sensible.

  2. Right In The Stanchion
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Grealish or Barkley?

    Is Barkley on any set pieces?? Could do with the extra 1.2

    1. wheato
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’m thinking Barkley

    2. John Nerdelbaum
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maybe wait till after the Leeds game

    3. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Brought Grealish on Wildcard
      Wish I’d gone Barkley, but thought it was too punty

    4. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I brought Barkley in last night. He's worth a punt at that price. Playing advanced in a decent looking Villa side with good fixtures.

  3. ALegendJ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Digne worth the extra 1.5m over Lamptey?

    1. wheato
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah I think so. Should be on some set pieces again with JRod out

    2. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      not for this gw, going forward then maybe, don't see many CS for either so have to ask yourself if Digne attacking returns will be worth the extra 1.5

    3. Limbo
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No comparison in terms of player. If you've watched the interplay between Hamez and Digne you'll see massive potential for points. He's being gifted quality balls every week. So then it's just about that 1.5 - which could be difference between DCL and Wilson. So really just how you spend it and what kind of team you want. TAA / Chilwell / Digne would be my ideal back line - but can't afford them all.

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Digne at 6.0 was a disappointing pricing decision from FPL

  4. Ghost86
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Would you do Rodriguez to Rashford -4?

    If not would have to start two from these three.

    Mitchell, Justin or Bissouma

    1. wheato
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Are you going to want him back next week?

  5. tissae
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one:
    A) Lamptey (WBA)
    B) Chilwell (mun) Chelsea looked solid in defence with Silva and Mendy + Chilly is always an attacking threat
    B) Saiss (NEW) Have Wilson as well, so would have to play my attacker vs defender

    1. wheato
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      They the only options? I’d play them all

      1. tissae
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Well, I am definitely playing Robbo against SHU, so one of these lads has to warm a bench

        1. wheato
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          What about your worst midfielder or striker?

          1. tissae
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Wilson (wol) has to be. However, I always prefer playing attacker then defender

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      They would all be playing.

    3. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Chilwell

    4. screamer73
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Tough call but probably Saiss

    5. AD2110
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd probs bench Saiss out of those if you have Wilson

  6. Better Call Raul
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mitrovic owners are you keeping for next two or switching to Watkins?

    Mitro: CRY, WBA
    Watkins: LEE, SOU

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d keep if I still had him.

    2. Ginola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d keep.

    3. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Keeping him for the next two. Then switching to Antonio when West Ham play Fulham. I'm not sure how the hell he hasn't dropped to 5.8M.

  7. Forever In Our Shadow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hi Guys. 1FT. 1.3ITB Any changes needed?

    Martinez
    TAA Saïss Lamptey
    Salah (vc) Son Grealish Townsend
    Kane (C) DCL Jimi

    Steer Mitchell Justin Romeo

    1. wheato
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Save and plan for Townsend our I think

  8. SuperDan
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Pick one:

    A) Play Podence
    B) Grealish -4

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  9. BHA_Seagull
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any news on KDB ?
    Held on to him with the hope it was minor.
    Wait on Peps presser for any clues I guess ?

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Back in training...wait on Pep, not that you’ll get a clear answer to any questions about KdB

        1. BHA_Seagull
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Good to know , thanks.
          Didn't think it was worth wasting transfers to just get him in again after a couple of weeks.
          Hopefully pays off

  10. John Easten
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Need some advice,

    James, Barnes - - > out

    B. Fernandes, Jorginho - - > in

    Should I go with the transfer or just keep the free transfer?

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Have you value in Rodríguez

      Maybe just Barnes out

      1. John Easten
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        On James yes.. Any suggestion on who should switch Barnes with?

  11. Warby84
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez
    Lamptey Trent Saiss Ayling (Branth)
    Son Salah(c) Sterling Rodriguez (Bissouma)
    Kane Wilson (Brewster)

    Good to go?

  12. RustyBz
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bruno or Sterling on WC gents?

    1. John Easten
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bruno

  13. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Rodriguez and Richarlison out (-4)
    To Salah and Che Adams?

    Would give me:
    Martinez
    Digne - Chilwell - Lamptey
    Salah - Sterling - Son - Grealish - Pereira
    Kane - Che Adams

    (Steer, Brewster, Taylor, Mitchell)

    1. Mcgugan
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Could you do Richarlson to DCL this week and bench Rodriguez if it's a 1 week issue only. Kane or Son (c) looks decent.

      I think Che Adams looks decent but DCL worth the extra

      1. Salarrivederci
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I could, but no Salah then

  14. mr messi
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I was thinking of losing Soucek this week for Grealish, but with the Hamez news think I will bench him, play Soucek and instead do Bissouma to Grealish. Soucek is due and more likely to get points than Bissouma. Thoughts?

    1. Mcgugan
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Soucek's stats look good in bad fixtures. If you've kept him this long I think keep for the next couple before their fixtures turn

    2. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Soucek is due
      Bissouma to Barkley?

      1. mr messi
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I think Grealish is better than Barkley

    3. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’m getting rid and then getting back on a WC

      City and Liverpool means reduced odds on returns. Could back fire but it’s more likely he doesn’t return in the next two

      1. Concrete
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        In your case though, it makes sense to keep

    4. Ginola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah I would do Bissouma > Grealish as well. Soucek playable from GW8 onwards, he’ll come good.

    5. Philip Jones's Diary
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wouldn't be surprised at all if Soucek gets something against City. I'm doing the same thing as you and it's the exact reason why I kept Soucek in my squad as a good first sub rather than downgrading to 4.5 fodder. It buys us a week to see if James is ok for the next GW, if not we have 2 transfers to play with.

  15. Mcgugan
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I've taken a couple of hits the last 2 weeks so team is now in good shape.

    Remaining issues are Podence and Reece James (0.4ITB).

    I'm thinking hold James for another couple of weeks as a wait and see, then if he isn't starting, he can become Chilwell and Podence to Soucek.

    Thoughts? Open to other suggestions for these 2!

    1. John Nerdelbaum
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Decent plan
      Still not completely sold on Soucek but I like Chilwell

    2. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I've got Podence. I'm thinking the same. Get Soucek either next week or the week after that.

  16. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    3 starts and 1 assist, I expect better this week Phil

  17. CrouchDown
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is there a reason Lamptey played > 60 mins on two occasions?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wait. The > symbol is finally working in FFS Comments?

      Yeeesssss!!!

      Lamptey was injured both times

      1. CrouchDown
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Haha thank you.

        *< is also working

  18. Silecro
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you fancy more Ward to get a cs vs Fulham or Chilwell getting attacking return vs manu?

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Ward

  19. Johan Queef
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts please:

    A) Konsa/Targett
    B) Lamptey

    1) Grealish
    2) Barkley

    Thanks!

    1. Ritchies Magic Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Lamptey over Villa defence def.
      Can't decide on Villa attack myself but I think Grealish prob edges it

  20. Ritchies Magic Hat
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Longer term, would you rather have:
    A) Son, Grealish, Jiminez
    B) Kane, Barkley, Havertz/Mahrez
    ?

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A sensible
      B punty

      1. Ritchies Magic Hat
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Haha yeah I tend to go for the more 'sensible' option

    2. lugs
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A), it looks more like a steady flow of points

  21. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Gtg?

    Ryan
    Robbo PVA Konsa
    Salah(c) Son Zaha Grealish Klich
    DCL Kane(vc)

    Walton Chilwell Dallas Brewster

    1. Boly Would
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd start Chilwell over Konsa

  22. bitars
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anything here worth a hit?

    Martinez, Steer
    Saiss, Digne, Van Dijk*, (Lamptey, Mitchell)
    KDB, Salah, James*, Grealish, (Bissouma)
    Jimenez, DCL, Wilson

    2,9 itb

    1. bitars
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Son is in the team, not KDB.

    2. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maybe
      But probably VVD first out, so not worth -4

  23. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Current team...
    McCarthy
    Cash KWP TAA
    Barnes Son Greal Podence
    DCL Werner Kane
    (Nyland, Mitchell, Egan, Hamez)

    Could wildcard to get in aguero, Salah and improve my defence but probs too late now... gtg?

  24. CrouchDown
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Coleman >

    (A) Lamptey
    (B) Bellerin

    1. lugs
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      i prefer Bellerin, he's looked pretty good the last few games, and now with Partey in the team, they should be keeping more clean sheets

  25. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Watkins even a good player? Literally never seen him play 😯

    1. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He was in the championship

  26. TheDragon
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What is the optimal Bench order of the following (will be starting Rodriguez)

    A) Mitchell
    B) Bissouma
    C) KWP

    1. Ritchies Magic Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      As you have it imo

    2. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B vs West Brom

  27. Right In The Stanchion
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Ok I’m looking at This for -4

    Justin > Kilman
    Hudson Odi > Barkley
    Bamford > Mitrovic

    Keeping James on the bench.

    Any objections?

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not so keen on Mitrovic.

  28. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Pope masterclass incoming

    1. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Don't say thattt. I need my captain to do well please. Ive had 4 blanks in a row

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Wow, who did you pick each week? Unfortunate

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Salah gw2 kdb gw 3 and 4 and then i got frustrated with my big hitters blanking so did grealish gw4 😆

          1. Flair
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            I'll allow Kane one assist

            1. Zimo
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 5 months ago

              Well at least it's something 😛

          2. Zimo
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Gw5* for grealish. Wish it was gw4 😛

  29. The SK
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone going without Salah this week?

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Reluctantly yes

    2. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I removed him to get son last week and kane this week. Worked out last week. Hopefully will this week too

    3. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Only because I have Mane

  30. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    C Salah or Kane?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Salah