Pro Pundits

Loss aversion and why we hold on to underperforming players in FPL

In my previous article, I discussed the difficulties we often find in transferring out players who have been performing well, even when it might appear beneficial for us to do so. 

However, sometimes we hold on to players too long even when they’re not doing well. This article is the Part One of a two-piece series that will consider the possible causes for that behaviour and how we might overcome them to make better transfer decisions.

Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in humans that describes our tendency to fear losses more than we value gains. Specifically, scientific studies have shown that we fear losses approximately twice as much as we value gains. 

This probably explains why we’re reluctant to take hits on players who are unlikely to ‘explode’, but it also goes some way to explaining why we hold on to underperforming players too long.

Arguably the number one source of anxiety among Fantasy managers comes from transferring a player out who you suspect might suddenly start scoring, something that always seems to happen. 

The hundreds of thousands of managers who transferred Timo Werner (£9.3m) out ahead of his two goals and assist in Gameweek 5 can probably relate to this feeling. It is, essentially, a feeling of points lost. Because we anticipate this feeling, we fail to act as a result.

Warped Reality

In reality, players we transfer out probably don’t score nearly as often as we think, we just remember the instances when they do, thus mentally inflating their frequency. It also doesn’t necessarily become a bad action to have removed a previously underperforming player, just because that player suddenly decides to start scoring that Gameweek.

While it might feel like this kind of thing is a matter of luck, one of the key skill elements of FPL is identifying the contextual factors that influence whether a player will score or not. 

Taking Werner as an example again, he had been previously playing out of position on the left wing and a move to the central striker position seemingly improved his prospects. However, he was also playing against a Southampton team who played a high defensive line, something that suits pacy players like Werner. 

Therefore, if either or both of these conditions are removed, it’s possible that Werner will go back to underperforming. The skill, therefore, is figuring out what conditions are important to the prospects of a player, and whether they will be consistently present.

If the conditions that contributed to a player’s sudden change in form are not sustainable, managers who transferred them out should not lose sleep over their decision, particularly if it enabled a move to an alternative with better long-term prospects. The spectre of this occurring should also not deter a manager from making a move if it makes objective sense based on whatever standards they employ to make their decisions.

It’s not because of you

Most importantly, although it might feel like it, a player did not start scoring because you transferred them out. That kind of ‘magical thinking’ can quickly sabotage a Fantasy manager’s season as it removes logic and objectivity and puts events firmly into the hands of chance. 

Stick to your trusted methods and, if they happen to fail you one Gameweek, console yourself with the knowledge that it absolutely, definitely, happens to everyone.

In Part Two, I’ll be discussing the ‘Endowment Effect’, coffee mugs, and why we sometimes prefer our low performers to others’ high performers.

1,687 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start

    Targett ( have Martinez already)
    Mitchell (don’t think he starts?).

    1. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Start indeed lol

      Definitely don't double up against the mighty Bamford

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Start the player that is nailed - Targett.

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      \Targett

    4. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Targett

    5. Shark Team
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mitchell is a better pick this gw and if he doesn't start then Targett replaces him

  2. Paddy Gooner
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is KDB likely to play 90 mins? I'm on the fence whether to start him on pitch or bench.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      You never know with Pep. If he does play then I expect him to start on the bench

    2. hewittj1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      i think he'll be on the bench

    3. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I deliberated over keeping him but got him out for Bruno. I just didn't want to risk him not playing or coming on for a 1 point cameo.

  3. hewittj1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    re-post

    hey lads, what would you do with this? I'm tempted to roll for more flexibility to fix a few leaks.

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    TAA Digne Saiss Dier Ferguson
    Salah Sterling Son Pereira Bissouma
    DCL Maupay Brewster

    1FT 2.8m ITB

    1. icanseethroughyou
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks decent to me apart from maybe Dier.

    2. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Front 3 looks a bit hit and miss

  4. MB10
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is this worth a 4pt hit ?

    TAA and Brewster
    to
    Kane and Kilman

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I don't think so. I can see TAA finally hauling

    2. AnfieldLad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Tricky. I would bring Kane in for a hit but wouldn’t lose TAA for a hit. Probably say no

    3. icanseethroughyou
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d think so. Have them in my WC draft at mo. Not convinced on Brewster myself.

    4. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      That’s tough. It could very easily backfire but just as easily pay off!

      I would be inclined to say no. I think Trent will come good

    5. Big Al Stankovic
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No. Wouldn’t lose taa before these two fixtures.
      Brewster is a great enabler, so keep him aswell.
      Kilman might be benched at some point.
      Would rather look at other options to bring in Kane.

  5. icanseethroughyou
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Got a goalkeeper strategy question. On a WC. I’ve usually gone for the best two performing budget range keepers (McCarthy and Ryan for me up to now) but I can’t ignore the fact that there are some better choices with more £ such as Martinez and Leno.

    When I see most others pick a 4.5k+ GK they pick a 4.0 GK as back up that is never going to play and so they can’t rotate. What’s the thinking behind that? Just all out risk to maximise money for wider team?

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Went with Martinez + Steer back when they were 4.5 & 4.0. Stick and forget for me. Would most likely bench the wrong one every week if I'd try to rotate.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Exactly, use the money on midfield and attack. There is also a risk of blocking you getting another player from the same team

    3. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I've had Martinez and McCarthy from day 1 with the rotation in mind. I actually have 39 keeper points this season. Probably been the biggest success of my season! But now I'm likely to play Martinez every week and have 0.5 tied up in McCarthy.

  6. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Morning

    Think I’m ok to save or should I improve defence?

    A) Save FT. G2G
    B) KWP > Lamptey and start over Dallas or Chilwell
    C) Branthwaite > Kilman

    1FT 0.5itb
    Martinez
    Robbo, Chilwell, Dallas
    Salah (C), Son, Pulisic, Grealish
    Kane (v), DCL, Maupay
    (Forster) (KWP, Stephens, Branthwaite)

    Cheers and GL all!

    1. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Save

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers Tony

    3. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B
      Dallas

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Not like you to recommend the move over saving mate 😉

  7. Garlana
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Are there any stats in the members area that show you a history of players vs a particular team? i always find this out too late, typically on match day when commentators say "he always scores vs..."

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I imagine so but I use Transfermarkt which is pretty good for this

      1. aborg
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks for this but how do I choose another player to show his goal/assist history against a particular team.

        The link you sent shows that of Harry Kane against Burnley but I can't replicate that same option using another player.

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I usually google “transfermarkt XXXX record against YYYY” and that gets you the right page quicker than trawling through the site

          1. aborg
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Thanks mate

  8. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wolves Fixtures:
    Newcastle (H)
    Palace (H)
    Leicester (A)
    Southampton (H)
    Arsenal (A)

    With 2 CS in 3 I'm optimistic about Semedo, hopefully he can rack up the clean sheets and get 1-2 offensive returns too. Hope Podence starts and hauls against Newcastle but his removal for Soucek looks inevitable.

    1. Big Al Stankovic
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wolves fixtures are good. But have not been impressed by semedo. Not so much attacking as I’d expect.

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, let's see how he does against a dreadful Newcastle side

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Semedo has been poor but he is nailed

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Better hope he lifts his performances so he doesn't get dropped

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Zero chance

  9. Big Al Stankovic
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which defender would you want the most for the coming weeks?

    Robbo? (A double up with TAA)
    Dias?
    Wolves? (Obviously Saiss?)

    Any other?

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      For the next 5 Wolves, then afterwards Dias

      Robbo looks great though I'd be wary about the impact of VVD

    2. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Robbo, and drop TAA for extra £

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Robbo, Wolves and Villa defs are good options. I wouldn't bring in Dias as this might block you from bringing in 3 City attackers when the fixtures turn in GW10

  10. fridge
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Morning all, have 1 FT and 1m ITB, would you make any moves here or save?

    McCarthy (4.0)
    TAA. Lamptey. Taylor (Dallas. 4.0)
    Salah. Son. JRod. ASM (McCarthy)
    Kane. DCL. Jiminez

    A) ASM > Barkley
    B) Taylor > Chillwell/ Saiss
    C) ASM & TAA > Grealish & Digne (-4)
    D) save

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      D

    2. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B) Saiss

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      D

  11. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Lamptey worth a -4?

    Very easy WBA fix could get double digits

    1. Big Al Stankovic
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Probably not, but for whom?

      1. R.C
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Mitchell/Taylor

    2. 21VK12
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      if you want him long term and want to do other transfers next weeks then go for it. If you can do it for free and have someone decent starting this gw then hold

  12. Live Lad
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    GTG?

    Martinez
    TAA, Saiss, Castagne
    Salah (c), Son, Mahrez, Grealish
    Kane (vc), Adams, DCL

    Subs: Steer, Bissouma, Mitchell, Ferguson

    Captain? Subs order? No FT. Any hit recommended? Like Mahrez to someone?
    Thanks.

    1. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Gtg

  13. doppelganger
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start Mitchell or Justin?

    Guaita Steer
    Trent Saiss Justin Mitchell Dunne
    Salah Son Grealish Zaha Reed
    Dcl Kane Jimi

    on -4 atm

  14. xHaTr
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Foden to Grealish for free or save the FT?

    1. No Totti No Party
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      i would go for it

    2. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Save.

    3. stewlynz
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d do it myself. Could always bring back Foden if need be.

    4. Live Lad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would do it. City returns are just random for budget players like Foden.

    5. Jarnathan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What's wrong with Foden? He presents excellent value and is going to play this weekend. I'd save.

  15. Kragbaek
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Been taking some chances. Challenge my theories

    1. Starting Rodriguez, if he doesnt play, I'm playing Walker-Peters, as Southampton has an actual chance of then playing good vs. Everton
    2. Benching Wilson, since I'm playing Saiss and I'm backing a clean sheet

    Ryan
    Robbo - Reguilon - Saiss - Mitchell
    Salah - Son - Havertz - *Rodriguez - Jorginho
    Kane

    McCarty - Walker-Peters - Wilson - Brewster

    What do you say?

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mitchell being dropped should solve all dilemmas

      Wolves haven't been good enough defensively to justify dropping Wilson

  16. Konstaapeli
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who do I leave out?

    A) Robbo
    B) Digne
    C) Saiss
    D) Lamptey

    1. Pukkipartyy
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      U should defo play all 😀
      Whats ur rest team?

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        KDB - Son - James R - Zaha
        Kane - DCL - Wilson

        KDB and James are both big doubts, but could still play.

        1. Pukkipartyy
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Then maybe C

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Cheers

    2. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Feels wrong to bench agains NEW at home.

        1. Pukkipartyy
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah, but who else and ur playing Wilson.

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Yep. Could also play them all and bench Wilson...

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Why put A in there?

    4. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      D

    5. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not worried about owning injured KDB ? I m too in same boat.

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Was thinking about moving him for Sterling for a hit. But as I already have a bit of a dilemma who to pick I just figured it's maybe better to stick and see what happens.

    6. Jarnathan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wow, they're your worst players? I'd play all of them - there must be someoen worse in your team

  17. GOONER
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any news on Antonio? Is he fit?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wait for press conference today - see post below for times

  18. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What to do with James:

    1. Save FT, play Dallas
    2. Save FT, play Brewster
    3. >> Zaha
    4. >> Trossard
    5. >> Foden
    6. >> Traore / Podence / Neto

    Thanks.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      1

    2. Latetotheparty
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd go for 1.

    3. Weeb Kakashi
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Id go with 1 your majesty

  19. The Handsome Hunk
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    KDB + Brewster

    to

    Soucek/Bissouma + Kane (-4)

    Thanks for the help in advance.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes I would

  20. Gobigorgohome
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    who to play

    A) Mitchell(ful)
    B) Dallas(avl)

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Dallas - nailed to start

    2. Latetotheparty
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

  21. Lazaretti
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    press conferences, source bbc/sports/football

    09:15: Steve Bruce (Newcastle)
    09:30: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (Man Utd), David Moyes (West Ham)
    12:30: Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace)
    12:45: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
    13:00: Nuno Espirito Santo (Wolves)
    13:15: Frank Lampard (Chelsea)
    13:30: Carlo Ancelotti (Everton), Ralph Hasenhuttl (Southampton), Pep Guardiola (Man City).

  22. stewlynz
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Facing a bit of a dilemma. Already used FT to bring in Kane. Would you do Sterling to Salah for -4 knowing that you’d captain him if you did or just go for Kane/Sterling?

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would just (C) Kane

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kane/Sterling

    3. Live Lad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not for a hit. Sterling could do well.

  23. Peter Ouch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Last spot on my wc lads
    Can you help me?

    Martinez
    Robbo Saiss Kilman Struijk

    I have 4.9 itb

    Now on konsa vs Lamptey.
    Whom should I pick or anyone else?

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Lamptey for me

  24. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one : Justin or James?

    1. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Justin
      Leicester will not keep a cs

    2. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Reece James. Justin might get attacking returns if not CS in 90 min.

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      James

    4. stewlynz
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Both to concede. Who would likely get attacking returns? Probably James.

    5. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      thnx everyone

    6. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      James, he may not even start?

  25. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Jimenez to Kane for a -4 worth it?

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      that is the biggest confusion. Whatever we do will hurt us.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think so. Wolves not creating enough chances and Jimenez stats are poor this season. Lower ceiling compared to Kane and Spurs have 3 great fixtures. Get him in before you get priced out.

    3. stewlynz
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If you have Son, no.

  26. Pukkipartyy
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who is on Chelseas setpieces?

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Depends who is starting, whole host of options; Mount, James, Chilwell, Ziyech probably, Jorginho pens,

    2. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Chillwell but Ziyech will likely take them when he plays

  27. farmerfat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone know if Klopp has a presser today?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      read post above

      1. farmerfat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks!

  28. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wrong Page

    Sheffield United conceded 15 shots to Fulham last GW, unimaginably awful. Surely the Liverpool boys have a field day!

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      But you only said they don't concede more than 2 goals earlier. 😛

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        That's true too 😛

        1. The Handsome Hunk
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          What you reckon over here?

          KDB + Brewster

          to

          Soucek/Bissouma + Kane (-4)

          Next GW Jiminez to Werner could be an option

          1. Flair
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            I like that, I'd love to have Werner for Burnley (A), Sheff Utd (H), Newcastle (A), Spurs (H) and Leeds (H). Could be a dream run with Chelsea clicking and Kane is in awesome form right now.

      2. R.C
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        mans having a breakdown trying to decide a captain

        1. Flair
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Wrong, Mane (C) is locked

        2. The Handsome Hunk
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          They should change the rules of captaincy points. (C) will get 2x points and (VC) gets 1.5x points.

    2. stewlynz
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If I had Salah or Mane, I’d be content.

  29. Zenith UK
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Can someone please explain to my why after 820 THOUSAND people have transferred out Trent since GW1 that he still hasn't dropped in value? Are FPL having a bubble or am I being stupid and missing something?

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No idea. Given that he will haul this weekend and blue arrows start popping up. 😛

  30. waltzingmatildas
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Seems crazy to be without Salah, but I can't get him without losing Sterling.
    A) Sterling - Salah (-8)
    B) WC
    C) Go without Salah

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C