Football Index

Unpredictable start to the FPL season making Football Index decisions hard to call


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Six matches into the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season and it’s fair to say that many managers are not happy.

The football has been so unpredictable, and the results so varied, that finding players producing consistent returns, week in, week out, has proved… tricky.

In fact, it’s boiled down to owning Harry Kane. Or Son Heung-min. And ideally both.

Even FPL experts have been left, at best, bemused.

So imagine what it’s like for someone trying to use FPL to guide his moves in another setting, Football Index.

In case you’re still not sure, Football Index (FI) is a kind of stock market where people use real money to bet on football.

You buy shares in individual players whose value can rise or fall depending on their performance both on and off the field. I’m new to FI and it’s beginning to show.

I’m still in profit, but it’s a figure in decline at present with the widespread unpredictability the season has brought so far.

Dividends – money paid out for the performance or media profile of my players – have been my saviour. Without them, I’d be making a loss right now.

I need to shake up my portfolio. Bring in new faces.

The problem is, only two of the seven players I currently own shares in would make me a profit if I were to sell.

It’s not like these players are doing badly. I own FI shares in three of the top 10 FPL forwards – Danny Ings, Raul Jimenez and Callum Wilson.

All three have had solid starts to the season, scoring four goals apiece. But it’s beginning to dawn on me that solid just doesn’t cut it on FI.

Traders don’t look just for solid performances. They consider many other factors that have an impact on the Index. It’s a bit like the FPL tendency towards knee-jerk decisions that some managers can’t help but display. Slow and steady might win the race, but crash, bang wallop is also a strongly adopted approach on FI, with big haulers paying out big dividends and attracting big trader interest.

As a result, I have three players in good form who would make me a loss if I were to sell them today.

And the less said about Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the better.

My long-term bet in the Arsenal forward’s value has gotten off on the wrong foot, as Mikel Arteta continues to flirt with the idea of turning the Gunners into a David Moyes-like unit so intent on stopping the opposition that they forget how to actually play.

It’s a notion so dull that even Moyes doesn’t subscribe to it anymore, although Frank Lampard is another who seems to be getting a massive kick out of clean sheets.

Which means that another in my portfolio, Mason Mount, is just not cutting it at the moment with his reduced playing time.

He and Aubameyang are getting close to being sold now. The former should make me a profit, while the latter will not. At all. His sale will hurt, but it really needs to be done with Arteta’s current gameplan.

Then I can look to Fantasy Football Scout Premium Members Area and try to find the next big thing with the form and fixtures to direct my strategy on FI.

But it’s not going to be easy. The three teams with the best upcoming schedule are Crystal Palace (drab), Everton (squad issues) and Aston Villa (bubble burst?).

Chelsea and Manchester United are up there too and have Champions League football to offer the prospect of a tidy midweek dividend for decent performers.

But their players aren’t cheap and, as mentioned, Lampard’s current flirtation with owning a fleet of parked buses has compromised the otherwise excellent pedigree of his attackers.

Whatever I end up doing is likely to come with a short-term loss. But, with the bigger picture in good shape.


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389 Comments Post a Comment
  1. No Professionals
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    *unpredictable start to EPL season making Football Index decisions hard to call.

    FPL has nothing to do with it.

    1. Arn De Gothia
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      true, all these betting- and other sites promotions makes this my last year as a member

  2. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Podence>Foden worth a hit? Gut says no

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yeah i'd say no. low ceilings on both.

    2. LegendMoon
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      not for a hit

    3. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      This is Podences swan song. Do it next week for free

      1. No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        he never made it past the ugly duckling stage sadly

  3. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What would you think of this? Too top heavy?

    Martinez
    Saiss Mitchell KWP Justin (Lamptey)
    Sterling Son Rashford Salah (Burke)
    Kane DCL (Brewster)

    Thanks

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      defence looks too weak, i'd want another 5-5.5m player instead of a 4.5m. When it comes to getting a City and United player in, as well as spurs and liverpool, i don't think you can get the right balance without losing one of kane or son.

    2. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      my concern is playing two of Mitchell, Lamptey, Justin, Burke and Brewster each week

  4. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Down with this sort of thing.

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      i agree. shameless attempt to tie a gambling sponsorship article in with FF.

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Listened to a FPL video on YouTube this week where they referred to Football Index as the way to 'profit' from football... dangerous use of language there.

        1. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          it's a difficult thing to balance promoting mental health and gambling at the same time.

          not that the two can't be balanced, it just feels uneasy.

    2. Fred54
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Sports betting dressed as playing the Stock market...and Stock Market is hardly an easy game.

    3. Arn De Gothia
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      agree. i´ll quit

  5. yakirh
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which Westham defender is the best to get?
    A. Balbuena
    B. Masuaku
    C. Coufal

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

      1. yakirh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Why? I have no idea where this Coufal came from, can he lose his place to Fredericks?

    2. stu92
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

    4. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

  6. stu92
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Going to work some City/United assets in over the coming weeks to deal with double gameweek (whenever that may be). Which is better?

    A) Son, Bruno, Mahrez, Kane
    B) Son, Rashford, KDB, Jimi/Ings

    1. Muller Reus Corner
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

      1. stu92
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers mate.

    2. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

      1. Dexters Laboratory
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B*

      2. stu92
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks for the input mate, appreciate it.

  7. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best option For the next 2 weeks only before a GW9 WC...

    A. Sterling + Maupay —> Kane + Grealish
    B. TAA + Werner —> Kane + Chilwell

    Feel Werner may be rested this week, Tammy probably better suited to play Burnley anyway...

    1. Muller Reus Corner
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B) Sterling is looking dangerous

  8. cemal
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What should my next move be? Any obvious one or am I G2G? 2.1 ITB makes me think I should get someone in. 1 FT

    Martinez, Steer

    TAA, Saiss, R.James, KWP (C.Taylor)

    Sterling, Grealish, Son, Hamez (Burke)

    Hominem, Werner (Brewster)

    1. Muller Reus Corner
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      R.James to Chilwell

  9. Sterling Malory
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A) Grealish to Zaha
    B) Maupay to Bamford
    C) Both for free
    D) Neither

    Martinez
    TAA Chilwell KWP
    Salah Son Grealish Rodriguez
    Kane DCL Maupay

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
        3 years, 5 months ago

        D this week

      • FPL Theorist
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B

      • Dexters Laboratory
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        D

      • No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        neither would mean burning a transfer? in which case B) and roll one, or sort your bench out (if you have any shockers).

        wouldn't burn one.

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Martinez
      TAA Saiss Dallas
      Mane Salah Foden Son
      DCL Jimi Watkins

      4m Mitchell Anguisa Dunne

      1FT

      Would you change anything here? Or save?

      1. Muller Reus Corner
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Save FT or move Dunne to Kilman

    3. DOUBLEDOWN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looking longish term, which is the better combo?

      A). Ings and Zaha, or,
      B). Werner and Foden

      1. Muller Reus Corner
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        A

      2. Dexters Laboratory
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B

      3. Bielsa Murderball
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        A

    4. Leaf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What’s happened to season ticker ?

      It’s unusable on front screen now . If you click slider on mobile then you can’t move anywhere on screen

      1. Fred54
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Works fine on my phone. Upgrade your tin cans.

    5. Muller Reus Corner
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Who should I captain?
      A) Kane
      B) Son
      C) Sterling

      1. Dexters Laboratory
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        A

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Sterling - Sheffield United look poor this season

    6. AnfieldLad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      McCarthy
      TAA Robbo Kilman
      Salah Son Podence Soucek
      Kane Werner DCL
      (4.0 Shaw Bissouma Ferguson)
      0.0ITB 1FT

      A) Save FT
      B) TAA -> Chilwell

      Was hoping to save but Antonio rumoured to be fit so might be time to ditch double Pool defence

      1. Dexters Laboratory
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        A) Slightly sideways. I'd rather have the 2FT next week

    7. I SPEAK ENGELS AND DRINK GI…
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What do here? 1FT 0,7 itb

      Martinez
      Robertson, Chilwell, Saiss
      Salah, Son, Grealish, Zaha
      Kane (c), DCL, Maupay
      Forster, Mitchell, Lamptey, Bissouma

    8. MSTRKRFTSMN
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Might have to wildcard... TAA and Aguero gotta go I think and too much spare change to be lying around from that

    9. MSTRKRFTSMN
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What’s the consensus... Werner on pens now or back to Jorg at the weekend?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        50/50, probably Jorginho still but last chance

    10. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A) Chilwell + Rashford
      B) Coufal + Bruno

      Which one?

      1. ElliotJHP
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        A

    11. Members Q&A Live Stream
    12. MoSalalalalalalalalah
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Repost from different article

      Hey fellas. I'm struggling a bit here on what I should do. Is taking Digne out because he is suspended and my defence is rather weak the move? Or should I be looking elsewhere? Cheers

      0.4 ITB

      TAA | Säiss | Mitchell
      Salah | Sterling | Podence | Son | Anguissa
      Werner | DCL

      GK: Steer | Lamptey | Brewster | Digne

    13. NotsoSpursy
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hi
      2FT. Should I get rid of Robertson??

      Also thinking

      Dallas -> Coufal
      Grealish -> Zaha

      Ryan-(McCarthy)
      Dallas- Robertson- Saïss
      Grealish- Salah- Rodríguez -Son
      Calvert- Kane- Maupay

      Bissouma, Konsa, Mitchell.

      Dallas -> Coufal

    14. Uns95
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Sterling to Son for the next 2 fixtures? Unsure what to do here. £1.2 ITB

      McCarthy
      Robertson Saiss Chilwell
      Salah Zaha Barkley Sterling
      DCL Jimenez Wilson

      Steer Podence KWP Mitchell

      1. IRBOX ⚽
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Jimenez to Kane, via Podence or Wilson

        1. Uns95
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Can do Jimi + Wilson > Kane + Brewster.

          Unfortunately Jimi + Podence > Kane + 4.3m is all I can do there, 0.1m short to get 4.4m fodder...

    15. yakirh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thoughts on TAA & Jimenez to Coufal & Kane?
      (Will play Justin/KWP instead of Coufal this GW)

    16. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thoughts for 2 free transfers?

      Trossard and Jimenez to Rashford and Bamford

      1. IRBOX ⚽
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Jimenez plays Palace. Don’t transfer him out

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          It lets him do trossard to Rashford tho.

          1. IRBOX ⚽
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Rashford - no thanks. Arsenal are setting up well defensively

            1. Zimo
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 5 months ago

              Still better than Trossard

          2. Shatner's Bassoon
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            One half decent thing about Arsenal right now is their defence. I wouldn't sacrifice Jimenez to get Rash in this particular week.

      2. No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        i don't like Jimenez out this week, but the sum of the parts looks better.

      3. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I’m thinking over the exact same moves

      4. MSTRKRFTSMN
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Surely Bamford can’t carry on like this

        1. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          maybe, but better to react when it stops rather than keep second guessing it. i did that with Salah in his first season.

    17. Michelle Davin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Robertson & Podence
      to
      Zaha & saiss for free

      Yes or no?

      1. xHaTr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Wouldnt be bringing in Saiss right now. Not sure if he will start

        1. Michelle Davin
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Whi other defender around that price except Chilwell then?

          1. xHaTr
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Coufal at 4.5 interests me. No need to spend all the money

      2. The Road to Turfdom
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        No

    18. BadgersBoys
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hi all, Zaha or Grealish? And is it worth a hit for Barnes? Thanks.

      1. MSTRKRFTSMN
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        What anybody sees in Barnes s an FPL plater I’ll never know. He’s the patchiest player on the game

        1. The Road to Turfdom
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Isn't that a potential appeal for a FPL asset?

          1. MSTRKRFTSMN
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            No

        2. BadgersBoys
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Thank you.

      2. The Road to Turfdom
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Zaha, not for me

        1. BadgersBoys
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Thanks.

      3. Dexters Laboratory
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Really think Grealish is the better of the two. Foden also an option with the future fixtures in mind. Not sure either is worth a hit though

      4. Over Midwicket
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Grealish
        Foden
        Zaha in that order

        Basically if you have one it's not worth swapping though

    19. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Podence will come good, sort of mini Hazard, their best player

      1. Black Knights
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        He's only getting Palace for me, then he's gone for Bowen or Rashford somehow.

      2. No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        mini hazard in as much as he runs a bit like him.

        non threatening player in a non threatening team.

        And Jimenez is head and shoulders their best player.

    20. Kingtekkerz
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Who would you drop for Chilwell?

      A) Saiss
      B) Taylor
      C) Lamptey

      1. StoichkovFPL
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        A - hard fixtures comming plus may be rotation risk now

      2. Dexters Laboratory
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        What does the rest of your defense look like?

        1. Kingtekkerz
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          TAA and Mitchell are my last defenders

          1. Dexters Laboratory
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Think I'd at least give Saiss this week and reevaluate next week. But leaning towards him. I really like wolves defense though (I've Saiss and Semendo). It's more a case of fund distribution. With TAA & Chilwell starting every week you can afford three cheap players rotating based on fixtures for the final spot

      3. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B

    21. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      *Auction league question.

      Is it fair to say that Davinson Sanchez is now out of the team because of the (hilarious) West Ham debacle?

    22. Heisenberg W. W.
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I've got 2FT with 0.1 ITB

      McCarthy
      Mitchel-Castagne-Saiss
      Salah-Son-Grealish-J Rod
      Bamford-Kane-DCL

      (Martin-Zaha-Lamptey-Benardo)

      I am minded to swap Saiss+Lamptey to Chilwell + Kilman

      Any thought or suggestions

      1. The Road to Turfdom
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Good team - could you do Castagne to Chilwell for free?

        1. Heisenberg W. W.
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          It's a good suggestion but was thinking of keeping Castagne long term (considering a decent run of fixtures other than)