Football Index

Unpredictable start to the FPL season making Football Index decisions hard to call


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Six matches into the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season and it’s fair to say that many managers are not happy.

The football has been so unpredictable, and the results so varied, that finding players producing consistent returns, week in, week out, has proved… tricky.

In fact, it’s boiled down to owning Harry Kane. Or Son Heung-min. And ideally both.

Even FPL experts have been left, at best, bemused.

So imagine what it’s like for someone trying to use FPL to guide his moves in another setting, Football Index.

In case you’re still not sure, Football Index (FI) is a kind of stock market where people use real money to bet on football.

You buy shares in individual players whose value can rise or fall depending on their performance both on and off the field. I’m new to FI and it’s beginning to show.

I’m still in profit, but it’s a figure in decline at present with the widespread unpredictability the season has brought so far.

Dividends – money paid out for the performance or media profile of my players – have been my saviour. Without them, I’d be making a loss right now.

I need to shake up my portfolio. Bring in new faces.

The problem is, only two of the seven players I currently own shares in would make me a profit if I were to sell.

It’s not like these players are doing badly. I own FI shares in three of the top 10 FPL forwards – Danny Ings, Raul Jimenez and Callum Wilson.

All three have had solid starts to the season, scoring four goals apiece. But it’s beginning to dawn on me that solid just doesn’t cut it on FI.

Traders don’t look just for solid performances. They consider many other factors that have an impact on the Index. It’s a bit like the FPL tendency towards knee-jerk decisions that some managers can’t help but display. Slow and steady might win the race, but crash, bang wallop is also a strongly adopted approach on FI, with big haulers paying out big dividends and attracting big trader interest.

As a result, I have three players in good form who would make me a loss if I were to sell them today.

And the less said about Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the better.

My long-term bet in the Arsenal forward’s value has gotten off on the wrong foot, as Mikel Arteta continues to flirt with the idea of turning the Gunners into a David Moyes-like unit so intent on stopping the opposition that they forget how to actually play.

It’s a notion so dull that even Moyes doesn’t subscribe to it anymore, although Frank Lampard is another who seems to be getting a massive kick out of clean sheets.

Which means that another in my portfolio, Mason Mount, is just not cutting it at the moment with his reduced playing time.

He and Aubameyang are getting close to being sold now. The former should make me a profit, while the latter will not. At all. His sale will hurt, but it really needs to be done with Arteta’s current gameplan.

Then I can look to Fantasy Football Scout Premium Members Area and try to find the next big thing with the form and fixtures to direct my strategy on FI.

But it’s not going to be easy. The three teams with the best upcoming schedule are Crystal Palace (drab), Everton (squad issues) and Aston Villa (bubble burst?).

Chelsea and Manchester United are up there too and have Champions League football to offer the prospect of a tidy midweek dividend for decent performers.

But their players aren’t cheap and, as mentioned, Lampard’s current flirtation with owning a fleet of parked buses has compromised the otherwise excellent pedigree of his attackers.

Whatever I end up doing is likely to come with a short-term loss. But, with the bigger picture in good shape.


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389 Comments Post a Comment
  1. abaalan
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    2 free transfer, 0 ITB. Dont really know what to do and also dont want to waste a transfer, any ideas?:

    Martinez, 4.0
    Chilwell, Saiss, KWP, Lamptey, Mitchell
    Salah, Pullisic, Son, Grealish, Soucek
    Kane, Jimenez, Maupay

    Maupay is only one i really would like to lose

    1. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maupay > Bamford looks a very easy swap to me. Then bank the other for next week. Nice team!

      1. abaalan
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        THanks!!
        Bit worried that Bamford will just be a flash in the pan. (Not that Maupay has done much since i owned him)

    2. Call Me Old Fashioned
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maupay to Bamford?

    3. Whiskerz
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Additional to the Bamford option, you could downgrade Soucek to free up funds for future moves. To a playing 4.4

  2. Fozzyb34r
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Jamez -> Pulisic for free? Got 2 FT so want to use one of them. Go for this or is there anyone better, got 8.8 ITB

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      8.8itb?!

      8.8?!

      8

      Point

      8?!??

      1. Fozzyb34r
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Haha slightly wrong from me. 8.8 to spend on a mid

        1. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          ah ok, thought you were insane.

        2. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          you must have a more urgent transfer than removing Hamez. what is your team?

  3. thegaffer82
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thinking I may just save my transfer this week and then do some kind of a mini-WC for a -4 next week and remove Podence, Justin and TAA. But, some part of me thinks I should improve my first XI for this week by using my FT. Would be interested to know what others would do with my team?

    .................Martinez
    .......TAA - Justin - Saiss
    Salah - Son - Pulisic - J-Rod - Podence
    ..........(K)ane - DCL
    Bench: Brewster - Lamptey - Mitchell
    1FT & 0.7ITB

    A) Save FT
    B) Podence > Barkley
    C) Justin > Ayling
    D) TAA > Chilwell (bank 2.3m for upgrades next week)

    1. Ohhhhh Gary Macca!
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      D

    2. Black Knights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I also have TAA, Podence, and 2 FTs and feel like i keep both or change both.

      I'd begun leaning towards keeping but if Antonio is fit, i'm not so sure. Would love to just change Podence but i have nothing itb so i'm changing a cheap defender to a WHU one.

  4. robt
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    My team;

    McCarthy (Steer)
    Robbo Saiss Chilwell (Dallas Mitchell)
    Salah Zaha Pulisic Grealish JRod
    Kane DCL (Brewster)
    (3-5-2)

    I have 2 FT but 0 ITB. Very tempted to burn 1 FT and have 2 for next week. Never burnt a FT before but quite happy with team for 1 GW and want to keep 2 FT for next GW as fixtures turn. What am I missing??

    1. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Don't burn the transfer.

      I'd swap Steer out rather than burn. It's doubtful, but there is a small chance you might want 3 Villa this season (Martinez, Konsa/Mings, Barkley, Grealish & even Watkins look decent picks).

      Steer > Forster maybe?

      1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I'd agree, Forster probably gonna rise in price as well

      2. Carlton P
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        This

      3. robt
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Great shout, thank you.

  5. BarryManilows
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Whoever has cards captain him this week he will haul massively

    1. BarryManilows
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      *Vardy

    2. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      who?

  6. Dacra
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Podence to Rashford for free?

    Was going to free up cash from defence and get Bruno with 2x FT next week, but could just get Rash now instead?

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Worth a shot.

    2. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Sounds good

    3. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nice amount of cash you've got banked there.

      That's about as good a transfer as there is. Podence unlikely to punish you, and Rashford is probably in the form of his life right now

  7. JenkoJunko
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Afternoon all! Just looking for some advice on this lot....

    Steer Mcarthy
    TAA Justin Mitchell Tierney Enda
    Salah Foden JRod Barnes Bissouma
    Werner DCL Bamford

    Messed up big time last GW as didn't realise there was a Friday night game so missed deadline! Stinker! I was going to WC. So... got 2FTs and 3.3 ITB.

    Still WC? Who would you look to get rid of? What forward makes way for Kane? Many thanks, any advice welcome as not had a good start at all! Thanks and GL.

  8. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Fulham and West Brom on pay per view on Monday night. Should be paying people to watch it not charging.

    1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      😆

  9. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What to do here?
    McCarthy (Steer)
    TAA Saiss KWP(Justin)(Mitchell)
    Salah Son Grealish Hamez (Bissouma)
    Kane Ings Maupay

    1ft,0.2 itb

    A) Maupay to Bamford/Antonio
    B) TAA to Chilwell

    If I save then I'll probably do A and B both next week anyway.

  10. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez
    James Saiss TAA
    Podence Salah Son Foden
    Kane DCL Jimenez
    (Steer Burke Lamptey Mitchell)

    1.3ITB & 2FT

    a) James > Chilwell
    b) Podence > Barkley
    c) Burke > Soucek
    d) James & Podence > Coufal & Grealish

    1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Podence to Bowen maybe?

    2. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      a) looks tasty

  11. fakelund
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Struggling with who to start at the back this week... I know Coufal is playing Liverpool, but my gut is telling me to start him... thoughts?

    Currently on:

    Martinez
    Chilwell - Coufal - Saiss
    Zaha - Barkley - Son - Trossard - Salah (c)
    DCL - Kane

    (4.0 - Brewster - Konsa - Lamptey)

    1. The Road to Turfdom
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Would start Konsa

    2. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Have to start Konsa

      Why captain Salah if you think Coufal will do well? assist chance?

      1. fakelund
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Assist chance, yeah. Not expecting CS from Coufal, Konsa or Lamptey really...

        1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Well CS are unpredictable these days anyway but you gotta play the odds and Villa surely have the best chance among those 3 so Konsa imo and he even has goal threat himself.
          But if you have a serious gut feeling about Coufal then I can understand!

  12. You've got red on you.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do you think I should use this week's transfer for:

    a) Trossard ----> Bowen/Barkley/someone else

    b) Rodriguez ---> Grealish

    c) -4 Trossard + Rodrigues/Jimenez/DCL ---> Grealish + 6.9mid/7.5for/6.5for

  13. faux_C
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Maupay to Antonio - a week too soon?

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

  14. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Rashford playing up top or out wide? Any change likely with Martial back

    1. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hard to say whether United will keep the diamond. Seems a different formation every week.

      1. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        OK, thanks

  15. thegaffer82
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Haven't managed to watch many WHam games this season - just caught them on MOTD only.

    How's Bowen looking? Is he a genuine goalscoring threat? Or do you think his 3 goals so far are a bit anomalous?

    I'm asking because I'm lining up an exit strategy for Podence and have only 6.3 to spend on a replacement...

    Currently on Barkley, but I've been burned by him in both an Everton and a Chelsea shirt. Is Bowen a better option?

    1. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bowen no brainer with the fixtures coming up

    2. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bowen has been recommended to me by a lot of people on here for my Trossard replacement.

    3. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      1 goal and 4 assists in 900 minutes last season and that was when he was bedding into the team

  16. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Why does every team (or most) seem to have a go at Liverpool and thus leave gaps at the other end for thier attackers, and the same teams look like staying deep and park against likes of city and United?

    Is it because of the way Liverpool is setup?

    1. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Because Liverpool DF are there to be got at right now.

      The teams in the Prem spend a long time scouting teams and working on strategy, so I'm sure it's not a coincidence.

      Villa certainly did well out of it!

    2. afcblegend
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Do you mean just this season? I think it's more to do with the teams each has played if you compare Liverpool vs City.

      Last couple of seasons I would say most teams had the same tactics against both - sit deep and pray for a goal on the counter.

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Last season against Liverpool pre-lockdown it was just pray, and hope they went easy on you.

  17. Zlatan F.C
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Would you do Podence to Pulisic this week or Brewster to Antonio next week? 3.3m in the bank 1FT

    Martinez
    Robbo Saiss James
    Salah Son Foden Grealish Podence
    DCL Kane

    Forster Lamptey Brewster Ferguson

    1. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Brewster to Antonio

  18. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Transfer thoughts?

    McCarthy
    Robbo / Saiss / Justin
    Salah / Son / Zaha / Grealish
    Kane / Ings / DCL

    Forster / Lamptey / Mitchell / Stephens

    0.2 itb.

  19. jam sandwich
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    good to go? 1FT 0.6ITB

    Martinez
    Robertson - Chilwell - Saiss
    Salah (c) - Son (v) - Pulisic - Rodriguez
    Kane - DCL - Bamford

    Steer - Bissouma - Lamptey - Branthwaite

  20. Bumbaclot
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hi guys best option here??

    Ryan
    Trent/Justin/targett
    Salah/kdb/son/podence
    DCL/Watkins/Werner

    Button/Dallas/kwp/soucek

    A. Werner and kdb to Kane and rashford
    B, Werner and Trent to Kane and chillwel
    C. Any other option anyone can think of

    1. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Werner and Podence ----> Bamford + Rashford

    2. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I wouldn’t take werner out for the next few got good fixtures

  21. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A) Foden and Fernandes
    B) Grealish and Rashford

    Which pair would you rather have?

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d say B then if Grealish isn’t performing get Foden instead of him

  22. Ninjaa
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Current front 8
    Salah Son Podence Jwp fodder
    Aguero DCL Adams

    1 ft. Obviously Aguero the priority to get out but for who???. Money no object.

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Downgrade aguero this week then upgrade one of podence or JWP next gw

    2. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Your gonna want city players for GW10 onwards so I’d look at bringing in a city mid

  23. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Transfer thoughts?

    McCarthy
    Robbo / Saiss / Justin
    Salah / Son / Zaha / Grealish
    Kane / Ings / DCL

    Forster / Lamptey / Mitchell / Stephens

    0.2 itb

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d sell zaha cause I don’t trust him but he is getting points so far this season and has good fixtures

      1. moz_1983
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        "he is getting points so far this season and has good fixtures" - sounds like a good reason not to sell him!

        1. Kloppcorn
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I just don’t trust zaha mate, he’s getting points atm but wouldn’t be suprised if he blanks for the next 5

    2. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d probs bring Foden in for him

  24. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Interesting that Lundstram has rejected a new contract at Sheffield United. Is he deserting a sinking ship? Wonder if anyone has let him / his agent know they want to sign him.

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think he feels a bit shortchanged that Wilder went out and bought a direct back-up/replacement for him when he (Lundstram) had played out of his skin for most of last season and was one of their leading players. Personally, I don't blame him.

    2. Le Bluff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Heavily linked with West Ham.

  25. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez (Button)
    Robbo,Konsa,Kilman,Chilwell (Lamptey)
    Salah,Son,Pulisic,Grealish(Bissouma)
    Kane(C),DCL (Brewster)

    0.5 ITB, 1FT.

    Am I gtg?

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good to go mate save the transfer

  26. vandebeek
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    My team:
    Ryan
    TAA Chilwell Saiss
    Podence Salah Son Foden Havertz
    Kane DCL
    (Forster, Brewster, Lamptey, Ferguson)
    1FT, 1.0M itb
    A)Ryan to Mendy(others below 5?)
    B) Ferguson to Kilman
    C) keep

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B looks like Kilman has nailed down his spot until Jonny returns

  27. Fit_to_drop
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone fancy Rashford? They have a decent run from Arsenal onwards.

    I've been watching him closely prior to last nights hat-trick and he was starting to show a return to form.

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’m deffo looking At him, saving my transfer this week to be able to do a double switch to bring him in

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Exactly my move too. Cant take him this week.

    2. Le Bluff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looking at him or Bruno for GW 9 Wildcard.

    3. afcblegend
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not for me but I think he's a good differential for a few weeks vs De Bruyne/Salah.

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I see him outscoring both of those during that time anyway.

    4. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Tempted to upgrade Hames to Rashford - good differential with just 7.5% ownership

  28. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best option under 4.8m to complete this defence? Was thinking Kilman but not sure how nailed he would be long term.

    Martinez Forster
    Robbo lamptey Dallas xxxx branthwaite

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nathaniel Clyne at 4.5m. Has fixtures, now form and is cheap.

      1. Le Bluff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Eh?! Looks like he's competing with Ward and Mitchell for that RB spot. Far from nailed.

        1. Kloppcorn
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Mitchell has been playing lb

        2. Kloppcorn
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          But I agree isn’t nailed

        3. Fit_to_drop
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Ward has been the weakest of the FB's at Palace this season. TM is a left back.

    2. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d go Kilman mate cheap as chips, when he loses his spot which I don’t think for a while you can always transfer him out

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Too many defensive options at Wolves at present (eventhough i own Saiss and Kilman since week1). For a defender in the 4.5-4.8 bracket, you want him playing.

        1. Kloppcorn
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Why would Nuno drop Kilman when their playing so well defensively? When Jonny comes back he’ll probably be dropped but he ain’t back for a while

  29. makaveli70
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play 1:
    KWP or Dallas

  30. Fit_to_drop
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Team and bench selection correct here? Cheers.

    GK: Martínez
    DEF: Saïss Robertson Chilwell
    MID: Zaha Son Salah Grealish
    FWD: Calvert-Lewin Kane Bamford

    BENCH: Forster Kilman (CRY) Mitchell (wol) Bissouma (tot)

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kilman in for zaha wolves are very good defensively

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers. I had Kilman and Saiss in for the game against NEW last week and was 3 mins away from a double clean sheet. But its risky so i dont mind hedging a bit this week on Zaha.