Pro Pundits

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. yanky
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    im wildcarding after start of gameweek, so I need a ONE WEEK transfer only

    a) Mitchell > Zouma
    b) Podence > Zaha
    c) Bissouma > Bowen (bench Podence)

    1. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C has highest ceiling imo

    2. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C

    3. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C mate. Same dillema below

  2. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Jimenez to any of these worth a -4? Leaning towards A.
    A) Werner
    B) DCL
    C) Martial
    D) Wilson

    1. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A or B (if hamez back)

    2. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Werner mate. Dont let them tell you otherwise. He’s on penalties and with Pulisic + Havertz out, he’s highly likely to start.

      1. Big Ronnie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers mate. Yeah only slight worry is him not starting.

        1. DAZZ
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Would be surprised if Frank went without Pulisic Havertz and Werner.

    3. bautasten
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A or hold.

  3. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Coufal or Lamptey?

    1. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      lamptey if confirmed fit

    2. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Couple. Will be relying on Lamptey attacking returns.

      1. Big Ronnie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        *Coufal

  4. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    So tempted by Podence > Bowen -4. Have a feeling about him this week. West Ham might annihilate Fulham.

    1. bautasten
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Not concerned about no Antonio denting the attack?

  5. dylano21
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Bench 2.

    Chillwel, James, James Rodriguez, Soucek, Cresswel, Dcl

    1. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      None of them lol. But if pressed to bench 2 of them, soucek, and reece james.

      1. dylano21
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Have this at the moment. Could also bench grealish maybe

    2. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      jeez do u have to hahah i guess soucek and dcl but i dont feel good about it

    3. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Lol. Bad management to have this dilemma.

      Soucek has to be one of them.

  6. bautasten
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Pulisic to..
    A) Bowen (Son -> De Bruyne GW9/10)
    B) Ziyech (Kane -> Jesus GW9/10)

    1. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Prefer KDB so A.

      1. bautasten
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks...Could get KDB in with Ziyech in my team, but would require 2 FTs. But A gives me more flexibility going forward.

    2. korbendallas82
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      a

  7. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    When to wildcard?

    A) GW10 for the fixture swing
    B) GW16 to prepare for the blank and double GW.

    1. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Depends on your team.

      1. FPLMACKEM
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        McCarthy
        TAA Robbo Lewis
        Salah son jrod Barkley
        Mitro Jimenez maupay

        Steer Podence Taylor Ferguson

        2.8itb and 2ft

        I'm considering making transfers for the next two gws with players who have favourable fixtures. Then wildcard out of it in gw10 and get a team to attack the fixture swing.

        1. _figu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Lewis to Chilwell no brainer. Would save the another or maybe Mitro to Bamford.

          1. FPLMACKEM
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            I'd have too much money in defence then and not enough for KDB. I'd probably only do chilwell for TAA/Robbo.

    2. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      pulling trigger tomorrow, best on international break and i gave TAA Podence Saiss Mitchell Kane Son all who I want to offload for some united and city assets. Doubles are after wildcard expires and over christmas alot can change in a few weeks

      1. FPLMACKEM
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Fair point. I think the double is in gw18 and the problem with wc then is you may end up with a team that is suitable for the double but not for the medium to long term.

  8. _figu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Clueless what to do here. Any help would be appreciated.

    Martinez
    Lamptey Robbo Chilwell
    Son Salah Barkley Podence
    Kane (C) Jimenez Maypey

    Foden Saiss Mitchell

    1 FT, 0.1 in the bank.

    1. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      save transfer then look to offload two of saiss/jimenez/mitchell

      1. yanky
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        or spurs assets too based on fixtures

      2. _figu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Having two Wolves and Maypay dropped(?) is a slight concern. But saving is where I'm leaning right now. Thank you for your feedback.

  9. Right In The Stanchion
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Hamez Rodriguez is going to end Ole’s managerial career this weekend.

    I feel sorry for the lad. But they can’t carry on together.

  10. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Interesting read, on that note:
    Is doing Pulisic to Bruno for free worth it?! Can't afford KDB

    1. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      bruno looks bad, much prefer city sterling/kdb. id look to fund somehow

  11. The Wizard of Ozil
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    What would you do here? Team lit up like a Christmas tree. Below are all doubts

    Saiss
    Ings
    Pulisic
    Lampty
    Reguilion
    Mitchell
    Burke

    Thinking either

    A) Saiss & Ings -> Chilwell & DCL
    B) Saiss, Pulisic & Ings -> Zouma, Zaha & Warner
    C) Saiss, Puli & Ings -> Coufal, KDB & Adams

    1. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Wildcard?

      1. The Wizard of Ozil
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Gone but might use free hit

    2. Z
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B is TOP!
      Only if it is -4

    3. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I kind of like A

    4. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A has the best long term picks

  12. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Sell TAA or Robbo?

    1. Z
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      TAA

    2. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      if nothing else is urgent i dont mind it. id sell TAA before Robbo as both on set oueces and andys cheaper

  13. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez
    James Coufal Lamptey
    Salah Sterling Son XXX
    DCL Bamford Martial

    XXX should be:

    1) Foden
    2) Podence

    1. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I'm playing Podence. Minutes and has looked good.

  14. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Kane going off at half time wasn't injury related was it?

    1. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      nope

  15. StoichkovFPL
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Is there FPL Blackbox this week?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I think Az was on holiday this week ( presumably returning earlier than planned)

    2. Werner Bremen
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I'm waiting for it too. Someone said at 9PM.

      1. StoichkovFPL
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        cheers

  16. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Taylor to lamptey for a hit?
    Or play kilman/Taylor?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Play Taylor

    2. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      def no hit. play taylor like rafa said

  17. squ1rrel
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    GTG? Rolling FT, have WC

    McCarthy
    Chilwell - Cresswell - Justin
    Salah - KDB - Rashford - Podence
    Kane (c) - DCL - Wilson

    Anguissa - Shaw - 4.0

    0.5 ITB

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      V nice

    2. icanseethroughyou
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Only one I’d change is Podence if you can. Must be better options and their fixture list is turning red. Great team otherwise.

  18. ReindeerHotdog
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    It's great how an interesting article like this doesn't generate any conversation about the topic discussed, rather the first comment is a RMT.

    There definitely needs to be a separate part of the website for all the mindless "Tell Me What to Do" comments.

    1. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I like Simon's posts, this is another interesting one and I can certainly relate to the behaviour he describes.

      It's worked for me recently in the case of Ziyech, getting on just in time; but I've had it work the other way around too, sometimes benching expensive, injured players for several weeks in a row. I suppose like everything there has to be a balance.

    2. tiger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I agree

    3. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Agreed. Would be nice to see more comments about the actual article..
      I am also weary though when he says, when a player blanks 3 games in a row, look to swap. But this is exactly the opposite I've been trying to teach myself over the years, where I see the best most consistent managers show so much patience, even when a player blanks 4+ times they hold and catch the big haul just as 1m managers have dumped them. There's always around after 3 blanks there becomes big sales, and being able to hold firm through that can bring the biggest gains. Even though saying this, I still get burnt by it. For example podencd this week

      1. FPL_Motty
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        *podence this week. I knew he had a good fixture but had blanked 3/4times, and I had set myself to using him to fund kane. Logical overall but if I had a bit more patience I should have held for 1 more week. On the flip side, I've held KDB through several blanks and an injury, but now I see many people considering city's plum fixture run and thinking how to rip up their teams for sterling/kdb, and I feel nicely prepared for that. Having the patience to hold firm with trusted players is tough but can bring the biggest gains.

  19. The Road to Turfdom
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Great article - enjoying these behavioural pieces! Cheers Simon

  20. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Best move guys? Might WC during IB or GW10.

    A. Pulisic >> Ziyech
    B. Saiss >> Cresswell
    C. Take another hit!

    McCarthy
    Chilwell, Davies, Justin
    Salah, Pulisic*, JRod*, Son, Grealish
    Kane, DCL
    (Nyland, Saiss, Mitchell*, Davis)

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C is for both

    2. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I would definitely sell one of Davies/Saiss for Cresswell/Coufal. Pulisic to Ziyech also looks if he's not fit.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah, I need to sort my defence. Was an easy move before Pulisic pulled up and ruined my Gameweek and this Gameweek

    3. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      i hate a hit week before a WC. If holding WC more than IB take the hit depending on pressers

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah. I could wait but I need City for 10.

  21. manu4life99
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Best Saiss replacement?

    Zouma - seems to be overperforming vs stats

    Bellerin - weak attacking stats

    Coufal - weak attacking stats but cheap

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      im leaning C in the week or so

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C or Creswell?

    3. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      96% going Coufal myself
      Zouma definitely is over performing
      Could see Creswell continuing to produce but rather that money go to Kdb

    4. Willco97
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Bringing all three in this week on a WC

  22. kennethrhcp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    A: Wilson (Podence)
    B: Podence (Ings) + roll FT

    1. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B.

    3. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      cheers lads!

  23. You've got red on you.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Mitchell ---> Kilman -4

    Have to do tonight to avoid being priced out.

    Wouldn't usually consider a -4 on defender but my 3rd defender spot is Lamptey, Mitchell or Dunne

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Laptey is gonna play though right? cramp i think iread

      1. You've got red on you.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah but if I leave it I won't get as good a player on my bench

        1. kennethrhcp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          i get ya... hard 1. im very slow to take a hit but ya you prob need a bench player with all that's going on

  24. andres
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    bowen or fornals?

    or find extra cash for Grealish / Zaha?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      WH = great fixtures... Bowen imo

      how would you free up funds for one of the other 2?

  25. Gunners in Haaland
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Play Podence or Grealish?

    1. andres
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Grealish

    2. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Erm...Grealish

    3. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Grealish

    4. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Grealish

  26. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    TV Over 104 now. Time for all big hitters to starrt firing at the same time

    1. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Nice

    2. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      maybe someone had the same/similar name but i thought you've been here for ages & not just 1or2 seasons

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        certainly feels like ages but i do post a lot during my active months

    3. JohnnyRev7
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Link your team. Otherwise you're BSing.

  27. batmaniac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Does anybody reckon pulisic is available?
    Is he training at all?

  28. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Who to sell first and who to buy?

    Sell;
    A. Saiss
    B. Davies

    Buy;
    1. Cresswell
    2. Coufal
    3. Lamptey

    1. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A.
      1.

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A1 easy

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Was my thinking. Cheers

    3. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B1

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah. Both need to go!

  29. potatoace
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Start 2.
    A. Cresswell
    B. Podence
    C. Foden.

    1. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      AB

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A. and toss a coin between the other two. Foden cameo last week with Podence 8 pointer on the bench...

  30. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Could this team work?

    Mendy
    Pva Cancelo Vestergaard
    Salah Mane Sterling Mahrez Jota
    Bamford Adams

    P.Farrell Brewster Kilman Thomas

    1. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Way too many eggs in one basket. Would work out for you less than 50% of time id say.