Pro Pundits

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Aaa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Ryan/Button
    TAA/KWP/Taylor/Kilman/Mitchell
    Salah/Son/Grealish/Zaha/Burke
    Kane/Werner/Maupay

    2ft 0.1itb

    ONE transfer to burn this week, what would it be?

    1. Seanigula
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Has Ryan lost his place?

      1. Aaa
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Not sure to be honest, been useless though anyway

        1. Seanigula
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          He was benched last game...you might want to pick a new keeper

    2. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Similar teams and considering TAA to Chilwell

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Surely has to be Ryan?

  2. youzef
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Ryan
    Chillwell TAA Aurier
    Grealish Pulisic Son Salah Foden
    DCL Jimenez
    Bench: McCarthy Justin Brewster Mitchell
    Shall I do
    1.Aurier & Pulisic - > Creswell & Ziyech (-4)
    2. Aurier Pulisic & Brewster - > Coufal, Bowen, and Wilson (-8)
    3.Aurier Pulisic & Jimenez - > Creswell, Bowen/Zaha, and Werner (-8)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      4. Pulisic -> Ziyech

  3. Ógie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    I love these physiological approach to fpl management articles by Simon March.

    For me they are as helpful,if not more as anything i read with lots of stats and analysis.

    Cheers Simon.

  4. Ze_Austin
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Funny own goal. Arsenal equalizes. 1:1

  5. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Start one defender

    A) Robertson (mci)
    B) Ayling (cry)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks, Miguel lad!

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      The Scottish Roberto Carlos

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers!

  6. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Should I prioritise Jimenez > Werner or Podence > Grealish?

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Latter long-term, first one short-term. I'd say latter

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Agree. Keep one talisman and bring in one talisman!

  7. Giles G
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Who is the better pick, Zouma or Bellerin??

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Zouma for me

      1. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        me2

  8. Drogba Legend
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Any help appreciated: 1 FT, 0.1 ITB

    Mendy
    Chill - Robbo - Dallas
    Salah - Son - Grealish - Pulisic*
    Kane - DCL - Bamford

    Steer - Saiss* - Stephens - 3.9

    A) Save FT
    B) Pulisic > Ziyech, Zaha, Bowen, Fornals
    C) Robbo > Cress/Coufal
    D) Saiss > Cress/Coufal
    E) Puli + Saiss > Cress/Coufal + Ziyech (-4)
    F) Something else

    Looking to get in City assets (mainly Son > KDB) around GW 9/10 or so.

  9. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Play one:

    A) Mitchell (LEE)
    B) Kilman (lei)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. Tingate
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

  10. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Hey fam! TAA & Havertz to KDB & Lamptey/Coufal for a hit?

    Gives me the following team

    McCarthy (Button)
    Robbo Lamptey/Coufal Dallas (Mitchell Ferguson)
    Salah KDB Son Foden Podence
    Kane(C) DCL (Davis)

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilwell Grealish for me rather

  11. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Brewster > Wilson makes sense doesn't it?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Who'll you benched?

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        *bench, ffs

        1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Likely Harrison

    2. Tingate
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Looks good!

      Hopefully doesn't give you a benching headache haha!

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

    4. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Yes I did that move this week.

  12. Tingate
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Guaita
    James - Lamptey - Robertson
    Sterling - Foden - Salah - Podence
    Jiménez - Kane - Watkins

    Forster - Targett - Mitchell - Burke

    £0.6M ITB 2FT

    Think I'm set on Targett > Chilwell, Podence > Grealish & Jimenez > Adams for -4. Yey or Ney?

    Thanks!

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Sounds good to me

      1. Tingate
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks a lot 🙂

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilwell Grealish Bamford

      1. Tingate
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        I was set on Bamford because I fancy him this week but I'd be £0.2M short so thought Adams a decent alternative as Southampton love attacking.

  13. Chenku╰☆╮
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    So much love for Bowen.. Stats dont speak it though. so why?

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Cheap, likely up top, may be on pens.

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        , passing the eye test

    2. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Passes the eye test. Cheap. Good fix. Nailed so far.

  14. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    A Pulisic to Ziyech or
    B Saïss to Chilwell

    1. Rinseboy
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      you not already got Chilwell mate?

      A I think

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Oops autocorrect seems to put Chilwell in when I type Cresswell!

  15. FPL_trail_runner
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    So many others without Kane this weekend on here?

    1. Joey Tribbiani
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      4

    2. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I don't have him. Got Son (C)

    3. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Here.
      Luckilt only one gw left with agony.

      1. Free Hat
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Luckily*

  16. Free Hat
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Was planning to downgrade Jimmy to a cheaper asset so I could get Man utd mid for gw 9 and so on.

    But now looked into getting Vardy in gw 10 till gw13.
    Then easy swith to Jesus or Aguero.

    1. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Don’t you think Aguero and Jesus will rotate though? I’d like to get Kun in, but just worried he’s too expensive if he only starts every other game

      1. Free Hat
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thats the question indeed.
        But hopefully more info till then.

        Main thing is I like Vardy for those fix and hes easy down or upgrade to any other striker.

  17. Udo
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Cavani or Martial?
    And do we reckon Cavani is playing? Ideally from the start?

    1. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Guessing Martial starts and Cavani will be subbed on around 70min.

      But Im not Ole ofcourse

      1. Udo
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks, so those two won't play side by side in any case you reckon?

        1. Free Hat
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Just going by recent games I still expect Martial up front , flanked by Rashord and Greenwood on the wings.

          But who knows with the results. Maybe a change of personnel, formation.

          But I think Martial gets the nod if you have to choose between them.

          1. Udo
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Well, I was going for Jimi as Ings replacement, but now I am considering those two as well due to their fixtures.

            1. Free Hat
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 4 months ago

              I have Jimmy myself since gw3 and honestly he and wolves dont look very good attacking wise.
              Drops deep and little chances.

              Martial when starting will get more chances the way Man utd play imo.

              1. Udo
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 4 months ago

                Thanks, I think I will follow your thinking. Shouldn't be too "clever" and risk another set back with Cavani. This season is a mess so far.

    2. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Cavani trash

      1. Udo
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        So rather Martial as a Ings replacement

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Won’t go there at the mo, was planning but retreat to observe further

  18. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Probability Ziyech rises overnight guys?

    1. jimbo90
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      think he will

    2. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Likely

    3. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk

      97.8% now

    4. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Status uncertain if will start

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Source?

  19. jimbo90
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez
    TAA Chilwell Lamptey (Mitchell Taylor)
    Salah Son Ziyech Grealish Podence
    Kane (c) DCL (Brewster)

    G2G?

  20. Tic Tacs
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Is Bruno a potentially viable captaincy option this week? Looking at the explosive potential of the Utd attack against a leaky Everton defence he looks a great differential to the 2 Spurs boys

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Looked utterly dreadful last two games

    2. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      He's my VC. Hoping Ole returns to 4-2-3-1 with Martial, Rash and Greenwood up top

      Problem is, that's hope

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      wait one more week imo

  21. Rinseboy
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Just Pullisic to Ziyech?
    or would you also hit Saiss to Zouma/Coufal for a -4?

    Team is
    Martinez
    Semedo Lamptey Robbo
    Son Salah Grealish Foden Pullisic
    Kane DCL
    Steer Saiss Mitchell Brewster

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Ziyech nailed?

    2. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Not a fan of hits for def.
      But if you want a Che defender for the long run, maybe its worth it.

    3. jimbo90
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I just did the same except Chilwell rather than Zouma and much happier with my team as a result. Go for it

  22. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Any update on Pulisic?

  23. BEEZUS
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Best Ings replacement for under 8.5m?

  24. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Maddison starting to look the part. Can see him being a great diff at some point

  25. lordkippe
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    2FT. Still godt wildcard. What do you think ?

    Martinez

    TAA - Chilwell - Reguillon

    Salah - Sterling - Son(C) - Podence

    Jimenez - DCL - Mitrovic

    Button - Justin - Bissouma - Mitchell

    A : Sterling & Mitrovic > Bowen & Kane (C)
    B : Podence > Soucek
    C : TAA & Jimenez > Coufal & Kane (C)
    D : Other suggestions ?

  26. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Worth making any changes ??

    1FT 1.6 ITB

    Martinez
    Robo/Reguilon/Chilwell
    Salah/Son(c)/Hamez/Grealish
    Kane/DCL/Bamford

    Martin/Kilman/Mitchell/Stephens

  27. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Robbo to Zouma tonight before the price rise or wait on Antonio news tomorrow ? I would hate to loose 0.1m

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Las time I couldn't do Barnes to Grealish because of that 0.1

  28. JoeSoap
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Best replacement for Pereira? (could downgrade TAA to Chilwell for more expensive mid)

    A. JWP
    B. Bowen
    C. Jota
    D. Other (0.9 to play with)

    McCarthy
    Zouma, TAA, Lamptey
    Salah, Son, Trossard, Pereira
    Jimmy, Kane, DCL
    Steer, Mitchell, Justin, Mendy

  29. Ze_Austin
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Just thought of this:

    "Will he rise tonight?" chatter increases the chances of a player rising, especially if lowly owned. More people become aware of the chance of a rise, check prediction sites and see a good chance, and make the move to catch the rise. Thereby increasing the chance the next person sees, keeping the chain going until right before price changes

    The impact should be less for highly owned players, as they need a bigger bandwagon to make that happen

    1. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Maybe better to not have prediction sites.
      Or just one day for transfers at end of the week.

      But its also part of the game and makes it 'fun'

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Every player needs the same number of transfers in to rise 0.1m, regardless of current ownership.

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Nope. They need a net percentage change in ownership to have a price change. The exact net percentage change required hasn't been released by FPL and differs in a few scenarios, like when the player already had a price drop from the initial FPL price (Ziyech, Ings)

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Hello Albert Einstein 😉

  30. Sweetboi
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Which one for the next few lads?

    a) Robertson + Bowen

    b) 4.5 Def + Ziyech

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Coufal Ziyech

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Masuaku / Dallas + Ziyech