Pro Pundits

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. StayoutheSpiceZone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Foden for:

    A) Grealish
    B) Ziyech
    C) Hames
    D) Just keep Foden

    1. JJeyy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

  2. enrico.palazzo
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Ings replacement up to 8.9?

    Or a hit -4 yeti get Werner

    1. JohnnyRev7
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Looking at your team I'd go Werner.

      But as it's the IB maybe just play Bissouma in a 3-5-2 and revisit afterwards?

      Your call.

  3. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Zaha or Bowen?

    Bowen worse stats but faced harder opponents

    1. The Senate
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I think Zaha

    2. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      If you want to play safe, Zaha.

      For differential and gut feeling, Bowen.

      Just my opinion.

  4. Fernandito
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Really tempted by C but is a -8 too crazy?

    Martinez
    Lamptey TAA James Saiss Mitchell
    Salah Son Rashford Foden Anguissa
    Kane Watkins DCL

    A Saiss to Cresswell
    B TAA & Saiss to Chilwell & Cresswell(-4)
    C TAA, Saiss & Foden to Chillwell, Cresswell & Ziyech (-8)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      It's a bit crazy but I do it pretty often. Gotta love a little!

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Don't make any move - play Lamptey, TAA and James.

      Saiss to Creswell if you need to.

  5. Sweetboi
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Bottomed - Which one for the next few lads?

    a) Robertson + Bowen

    b) 4.5 Def + Ziyech

  6. The Senate
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    2FT 1.5ITB - who, if any, would you sell?
    Planning Semedo and Podence out GW10, maybe KWP out GW9

    Ramsdale
    Chilwell Semedo KWP
    Salah Rashford Son Grealish Podence
    Kane DCL
    (Steer | Brewster Justin Mitchell)

  7. tbhogal
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Who’s the better option Fornals or Bowen guys??

    1. The Senate
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      my gut says Bowen but I haven't really looked into it

    2. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Stats and points say Fornals.

      But yet I have picked Bowen.

      Dont ask why.

  8. Lingard’s Shin Guards
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    A) Ings, pulisic, saiss to Vardy, Grealish, Masuaku (-4)
    B) Ings, Pulisic, saiss to Wernrr, Grealish, Cresswell (-4)

    1. The Senate
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A. Vardy >> Werner IMO

  9. Couch Potato
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    2FT 1.0 ITB

    A TAA => Chilwell

    B TAA + Saiss => Chilwell + Coufal

    C TAA + Saiss + Podence => Chilwell + Coufal + Hamez/Zaha/Ziyech (-4)

    Other midfielders are Salah/Son/Grealish/Bissouma.

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Can you just do Saiss to Chilwell or Cresswell and save an ft?

      1. Couch Potato
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yes, but to be honest, I'm losing patience/faith in TAA!!

        1. Concrete
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Me too but Decent stats and nice run after the break. Things are settling down more with results etc now

          If you have a wildcard to get him or Robb back it could work

          1. Couch Potato
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Already burnt the Wildcard!

            Really looking to generate funds to get KDB/Sterling when City fixtures get good, so TAA to Chilwell was my best idea.

  10. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone feel Martial could return against Everton? Need a replacement for Ings, funds not an issue. Already have Kane and DCL

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I am getting Martial.

      1. JURGENAUT
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Nice, I’m assuming you’re confident against Everton? Or do you have one eye on West Brom fixture?

        1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          A combination.

    2. Udo
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No love for Cavani here? Or am I just trying to be to clever?

    3. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      United are a wait and see for me so no

      1. JURGENAUT
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Who would you recommend? Funds not an issue

        1. Concrete
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Werner, Kane, Wilson?

          1. JURGENAUT
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Got Kane & DCL.

            Not sure if Werner starts is my worry

  11. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Have Sterling, Play Foden or Podence?

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Podence

    2. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Foden

  12. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Antonio to Wilson tonight?

    Robbo to Zouma tonight?

    Wait for one extra day and swallow the price rises?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Antonio back after the IB. I'd keep.

      Do you really want Zouma? Not sure I'd lose Robertson for him.

      1. Concrete
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        This for me too

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          But will he be back? how many times we have heard this that X player will be back and we keep keeping him like Mark last year with Martial he kept him for 7 Gws or so

          1. Twisted Saltergater
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            There was a tweet from ExWHUemployee apparently saying he'll be back after the IB. That's all I've heard.

            1. FPL Daniel
              • 14 Years
              3 years, 4 months ago

              But will he ? I am somehow not convinced, Wilson and Bam Bam will outscore him, will he be back to normal fitness? he was struggling several games, don't know what to do

            2. Ze_Austin
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 4 months ago

              Didn't find this tweet on his timeline

  13. n-doggg
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Does anyone have the goal scorer odds for this GW?

  14. Concrete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Which one?

    A Chilwell & Wilson
    B Cresswell & Werner
    C Chilwell & Jim

    1. korbendallas82
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers!

  15. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Which is the best option?

    A. Coufal
    B. Masuaku
    C. Lamptey

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C

  16. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Pretty confused here...Best moves here with 1ft and 0m

    Martinez
    Taa Lamptey James* -- Mitchell* Saiss*.....*rotation prone
    Salah Son Havertz Barnes -- Burke
    DCL Kane Watkins

    A: Havertz >> Grealish but double villa attack vs arsenal?
    B: TAA + Havertz >> Bellerin + Bruno
    C: TAA + Havertz >> Kilman + Sterling
    D: Something else i.e. Havertz >> Bowen/Zaha/Ziyech

  17. Zlatan F.C
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Any ideas here? 1FT 2.4m in the bank

    Martinez
    Robbo Lamptey Chilwell
    Grealish Salah Podence Son Foden
    DCL Kane

    Forster Saiss Brewster Ferguson

  18. n-doggg
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Captain!

    A. Son
    B. Werner

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Son

    2. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Son

    3. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      If you dont have a very big couch, A

  19. Eastman
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Sterling > KDB a good idea or wasted transfer?

    1. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Can backfire very easily imo

    2. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Prob a waste considering fixture and then int break

    3. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Wasted transfer. KDB drips steady points normally. Sterling seems to blank more and explode more than him. With Burnley and Fulham coming up I can see him hauling in one or both.

      1. Eastman
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks folks.

  20. 2EyedTurk
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    On a WC, so how about it...
    Mendy
    Chilwell Coufal Vestergaard
    Ziyech Salah Jota Zaha
    DCL Kane Vardy

    Fabri Grealish Kilman Phillips
    0.0 ITB

    1. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Not sure I would want to WC into a team with no City players given their fixture run. Also, do you really want to bench one of that front 8 every week?

      1. 2EyedTurk
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah, that is an issue. Could fit Walker in, and switch Jota to Riedwald

        1. BeWater
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          I'm looking at Cancelo and KDB/Sterling in for TAA and Bruno. Unless TAA goes ballistic in his next two.

          1. 2EyedTurk
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Yeah, lost patience with TAA! Tweaked now,

            Mendy
            Chilwell Walker Vetergaard
            Salah Grealish Ziyech Zaha
            DCL Kane Vardy

            Fabri Riedwald Mitchell Kilman

  21. School of Poch
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Start one:

    A: Justin (vs Wolves)
    B: Taylor (vs Brighton)
    C: Mitchell (vs Leeds)

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Justin

      1. School of Poch
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks, that's what I'm on

  22. dark91
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    @simonm I hope you see this comment. I remember willingly choosing to take a course called "Economic Psychology" a couple of years ago and you can't imagine how happy I was to read this article and the previous one and being able to relate to them.
    Keep up the good work and hoping to see more of this integrated in your articles

  23. Vasshin
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    My team atm

    Martinez
    Saiss Robbo james Justin Mitchell
    Foden grealish salah son hamez
    Mitrovic calvert-lewin Jimenez

    I have 2ft and 1.4 in bank
    Should i do
    1. Saiss to Chilwell and save 1ft for next week
    2. Saiss to cresswell/zouma/bellerin and Jimenez to Werner
    3. Saiss to Chilwell, Jimenez to werner and foden to ward-prowse with -4

    Thanks

  24. The-Red-1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Who gets dropped for KDB in a couple of weeks? 2 and 3 involve also downgrading Robbo and I'd have no pool defence:

    Mane
    Son
    Zaha

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Son for me, you have to give the wba game to zaha

  25. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone interested in Greenwood?

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I know I am

    2. FF Dirtbag
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      At the moment there are better options in midfield

    3. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Alex greenwood? Yes please

  26. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Jimenez to any of these worth a -4? Tempted by A.
    A) Werner
    B) DCL
    C) Martial

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Worth a - 4 probably not. Stick with Jimenez

  27. FF Dirtbag
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Got 9.2 to spend on a striker to replace Ings.

    Gamble on Martial? Current team below.

    Martinez
    Reguillon Chilwell Coufal
    Salah Son Grealish Rodriguez
    Kane Ings DCL

    Forster; KWP, Mitchell, riedewald

  28. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez
    TAA Justin Lamptey
    Salah (C) Zaha Son Bowen
    DLC Jimi Kane
    SUBS Mitchell Saiss Burke* 2ft 0.2m itb

    A Forster/Martin in for Nyland GK
    B TAA to Chilwell
    C Burke to Bissouma
    D Saiss to Cresswell
    E Saiss to Coufal
    F Mixture of two

  29. H-SF
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    This is my team:
    Ramsdale
    KWP Saiss Mitchell Trent Digne
    Bissouma Soucek Pulisic Son Salah
    Kane DCL Maupay

    0.6 ITB. 1 FT
    4 players didn't play last week. Do I need to WC? I am unsure

  30. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Need a cheap Mitchell replacement?

    1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Kilman

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Looks good option

    2. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Coufal, Dallas, Ayling, Targett, Holding , Lascelles?