Pro Pundits

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. tbhogal
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Is Adams still a good option now that ings is out guys?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Better now, id say

    2. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I would wait and see how they play with him and Long tomorrow at home. I expect the injury will hurt Adams' appeal but I could be wrong

      1. Nice to Finally Michu
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        As an Adams owner I should say that my plan is to play him this week and assess how Saints play. His fixtures over the next two are mediocre but he could still tick over if he looks like the focal point tomorrow. If that's the case i'll probably keep until GW 13/14. What I expect however having seen almost every saints match this season is that Adams will be quiet tomorrow but still probably get one return. If thats the case then i'm shipping for Richarlison

    3. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I had him first 4 weeks and thought about getting him back for Mitrovic but I'm unsure without Ings in the team so made other transfers.

  2. JELLYFISH
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Chances of Lamptey starting this gw?

    1. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      He's always flagged and always plays!

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        So true

      2. JELLYFISH
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Good enough for me, cheers

  3. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Are there pressers before deadline tomorrow? Specifically Frank

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Yup. Frank in the morning

  4. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Sterling or KDB?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      KDB for me

    2. FPL_trail_runner
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I plan to have both from next week with FT

    3. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Sterling

    4. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      If I had one of them I would just keep whichever you had. I have neither and am planning to get KDB in my team for week 10.

    5. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers everyone

  5. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    I am not able to see the replies on any post. Anyone else facing the issue??

    1. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I had that issue a year or two back. It’s a setting you can toggle on and off, and someone on here told me what to do... can’t remember what it was though, sorry!

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Tick "show replies" box at the start of the comment section.

      1. Stamford Bridge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        but he cant see your reply

  6. Ze_Austin
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    @Overthinker: Check "Show replies" at top right of the comments section

    1. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Now visible. Thank you.. I was searching for it at the bottom

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Happy to help

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Oh yeah, that was it!

    3. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I wonder why that tick box is there anyway?

      Like does anyone that uses the site have that ticked on purpose and why if they do?

      1. ZeBestee
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        I think its ticked by default, but you can choose to untick. Agree doesn't make any sense to be there as this is basically a forum and replies are crucial.

        1. Ógie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Indeed.

          It would be better if there was a tick box next to every poster so one could make them disappear if they so wished. 😛

  7. FPL_trail_runner
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Think I have found my transfers this week

    2 FT
    Saiss + Antonio to James + Bamford

    Enough in the bank to go Son to KDB next week with 1 FT. Son looks the only decent captain option

    Meslier
    Ayling Robertson TAA James
    Sterling Salah Son Hamez
    DCL Bamford

    4ml Kilman Bissouma Brewster

  8. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Bench two:

    A) Zouma
    B) Chilwell
    C) Vestergaard
    D) PVA
    E) Lamptey

    1. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C and D. Wish I had problems like this!

    2. 1984 TC
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Oooo, tough one. They all have favourable fixtures... Both Chelseans and PVA? Although Lampster could cause havoc too

    3. markus808
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C, I think PVA is unbenchable, why not go 4 defenders?

  9. Konig Luther
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Click in "Show replies" @Overthinker on top of comments list

  10. konrad.sygula95
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Mccarthy/Nyland
    TAA/ Saiss/Holding/Douglas/Mitchell
    Son/Salah/Havertz/Grealish/Stephens
    Ings/Werner/Mitro

    2ft 1.1itb

    What are the best replacement for Ings and Havertz? on 2 ft

  11. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Best TAA/Saiss replacements

    A Chilwell
    B Cresswell
    C Coufal
    D Bellerin
    E Vestergard

    1. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C

    2. Ganso
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A for sure

    3. 1984 TC
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Well and Bell

      1. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Which well...

  12. Jay Arell
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Zouma, Bellerin or Cresswell? Already have Chilwell

    1. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Creswell.

    2. Ganso
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Cresswell for this run of fixtures

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Thank you for asking my question!

  13. Nice to Finally Michu
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Worth waiting for Frank's presser before bringing in Ziyech? Could be a difference in 0.1

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      nah just go for it, i did

      1. Nice to Finally Michu
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Fair enough, I think you're right. Plan in the coming weeks relies on me being pretty alert to price changes

    2. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      He came off early last night. I expect him to start.

      1. Nice to Finally Michu
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        As do I, just wary of a knock

  14. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez
    Robertson Chilwell Dallas
    Salah Son James Grealish Foden
    DCL Kane

    Forster Saiss Brewster Ferguson

    1 FT, 0.0 itb

    1. Saiss >> ?
    2. Save FT (hope my XI all start)
    3. Something else??

    Thanks

  15. Ze_Austin
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Willock gets his goal

  16. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Struggling with what best to do with 2FT. Pulisic is the main issue and I may have lost patience with LIV def not delivering value.

    2FT 1.1itb
    Martinez
    Robbo*, Chilwell, Dallas
    Salah, Son, Pulisic*, Grealish
    Kane, DCL, Bamford
    (Forster) (KWP, Stephens, Branthwaite)

    A) Puli, Robbo > Ziyech, Cresswell/ Coufal/ Bellerin (2FT)
    B) Puli, Robbo > Rodriguez (if fit), Zouma (2FT)
    C) Puli > Ziyech (roll an FT)
    D) Puli > Zaha

    Cheers

  17. tiger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Grealish or Ziyech?

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Ziyech for me short term (4 weeks), Grealish long term (8 weeks)

    2. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Grealish. Talisman. Cheaper. Long term hold

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        This

      2. Nice to Finally Michu
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        He's definitely the long term hold but SHU new TOT LEE is an exciting prospect for someone of Ziyech's caliber. ars BHA whu NEW wol I can see Grealish ticking over in so it's about how long you plan on having the player in your side

        1. Ze_Austin
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          True

        2. tiger
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Thanks all

  18. Dele
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Would you do Rashford & DCL >> Ziyech & Werner?

    1. Dele
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      2FT and exact funds to do the swap

    2. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I wouldn't, Rashford's fixtures are turning. They aren't fixtures to die for but i'd expect returns. DCL has a terrific run GWs 9-11, getting rid now seems foolish when he has ful LEE BUR and Richarlison and James and Digne all back in XI for that run

      Rashford > Ziyech at most if you feel very strongly

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        These reasons, and then the benefit of spreading out exposure to highly attacking teams in an unpredictable season

        If Man U does something, Bruno and Rash are likely to be involved. Same with DCL and James at Everton. Then Chilwell/Zouma gets you into Chelsea at both ends of the pitch

        With good fixtures for those you have too, there isn't much need to concentrate so much on Chelsea

    3. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No

  19. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Has Mitchell been dropped by PVA return?

    Keep or swap?

  20. Luton_Fan
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Zaha, Bowen or Fornals?

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I went Bowen

      1. Luton_Fan
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks. Hmm. Thinking zaha.

  21. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Should Jimenez > Werner or Podence > Grealish be a bigger priority?

    1. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Get Werner this week and Grealish next week.

  22. ZAWAd25
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    4.5 mid to Zaha for a hit? If not will have to start Taylor

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Yes but Bowen better

  23. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Do we think Werner starts this weekend? I see he likely going up tonight so would prefer to get him in.

    Otherwise I’m hanging on to a slim chance Antonio passed fit.

    I’ll be shipping Jimi.

  24. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Pulisic and Ings ➡️ Bowen/Ziyech and Vardy -4?

  25. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Saiss....should he stay or should he go ?

    1. Dybala10
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Bin him

    2. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I would personally lean towards go. Just feel he may come in and play a game but still is not necessarily nailed for sure even once he comes back into the fold.

      1. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers

    3. bitars
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Ditch

  26. Mane Mane Mane
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Is Ryan out for Brighton? Who will be playing instead?

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Robert Sánchez I think

  27. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Is TAA to Chilwell worth a hit?

    1. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Has to go I think. But long term, it probably will backfire.

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        I've Robbo as well.

        1. ZeBestee
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Then go for it. I have a feeling the likes of City, Chelsea and Pool will turn a gear or 2 from now onwards, they have underperformed due to lack of proper preseason.

          1. Pep Roulette
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Cheers mate

  28. Aladdin Sané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Chilwell or Zouma?

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilwell

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilwell easy. Zouma wont score every other game.

  29. Jdpz
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    McCarthy, Nyland
    TAA, Justin, Taylor, Konsa, Tierney
    Bruno, Son, Pulisic*, Bissouma, Podence
    Kane, Ings*, DCL
    1.6M in the bank, 1 free transfer.

    A) Play wildcard
    B) Ings to Vardy, TAA to Chilwell (-4)
    C) Pulisic to Grealish, Ings to Vardy (-4)
    D) Ings to Werner
    E) Ings to Bamford, Pulisic to KDB (-4)
    Please for a help

  30. Dybala10
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Zaha and Coufal in for Foden and Saiss (-4) sound good?

    Phil has been ticking along but the rotation is annoying and I can’t see a decent downgrade and like Wilf’s next 4. West Ham defender pretty much essential moving forward and Saiss is too much of a risk now.

    1. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Coufal for Saiss is good enough, I wouldn't do the other move

    2. Ganso
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Foden benchings and 1 pointers are very annoying!

      I'm considering Saiss & Foden => Coufal & Grealish.
      Just wondering if it's worth the -4 this week, but I think it probably is.

    3. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Ticking along vs Zaha's explosiveness with nice fixtures. In a season like this I would still lean towards the latter. Zaha is the main man, Foden isn't and City not necessarily as free scoring as we expect.

      I agree with DannyDrinkVodka - just Saiss -> Coufal for me.