Pro Pundits

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Firminooooo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Blackbox tonight?

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Live now on YouTube

      1. Firminooooo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks. Couldn’t find it.

    2. Right In The Stanchion
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Right on time?

  2. Fernando Torres
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Rashford -> Ziyech for free?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      It could backfire spectacularly

    2. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No way. You’ve got rashford recently I assume? He has wba at home next gw

    3. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No!

    4. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Deffo not

    5. Fernando Torres
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Have you guys seen United play recently?

      1. No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Just do it then

        1. ilikewud
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          This! You don't need our permission

  3. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Pretty confused here...Best moves here with 1ft and 0m

    Martinez
    Taa Lamptey James* -- Mitchell* Saiss*.....*rotation prone
    Salah Son Havertz Barnes -- Burke
    DCL Kane Watkins

    A: Havertz >> Grealish but double villa attack vs arsenal?
    B: TAA + Havertz >> Bellerin + Bruno
    C: TAA + Havertz >> Kilman + Sterling
    D: Something else i.e. Havertz >> Bowen/Zaha/Ziyech.

  4. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Thinking to take a hit for long term, used 2 FT’s already

    Martinez
    Robbo Zouma Lamptey*
    Son Salah Barkley Ziyech
    Jimenez Kane DCL

    Forster Justin Mitchell* Burke

    0.6 ITB

    A) Mitchell ➡ Coufal -4
    B) Barkley ➡ JWP -4
    C) Martinez ➡ Mendy -4

    1. nibby
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      None

    2. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Lamptey should be fine ..I wouldn't take the hit

    3. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A is a smart move but not for a hit

    4. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A of those

    5. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Would save, A best option out of those 3 listed, however. Suerte, tío.

    6. chelseabrad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No need for a hit, team looks good for this week

  5. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Arteta is morphing into an Action Man

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Bit harsh on Action Man imo

  6. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Is Ziyech a good option going forward?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Oh yes

  7. Feed tha Sheep
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Have 2FTs first one I’m doing Saiss > Chilwell..second one?

    A. Davies > Coufal
    B. Foden > Ward Prowse

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A. Davies probably not gonna feature at the weekend

    2. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B is a sheep move

  8. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Getting spooked by the “Werner to be rested” comments as I got burnt by Saiss last week
    Wise to switch Jimmy to Werner this week or just hold 2FT next week?
    Don’t own any Chelsea players

    1. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I'd do it. I'm considering it for a hit.

    2. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      It's LEI and Southampton the next two for Jimmy. Surely he can match Werner. After that his fixtures turn.

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Sound advice, cheers
        I would probably do it if not for internationals coming up

  9. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    GTG?

    Martinez
    Coufal, Zouma, Chilwell,
    Grealish, Salah, Zaha, Son C
    DCL, Kane, Bamford

    Forster, Podence, Lamptey, Robbo

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Looks good. Really nice team

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers,
        Son or Kane C?

      2. lilmessipran
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        I'd go mad with the team selection.. too much funds on the bench imo

    2. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Bench boost?

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Not thought about that, usually wait for DGW?

    3. Stupendous
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      You dont bench a 7m defender. Even against city.

  10. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    2 of my defenders are flagged...

    Which move to make?

    A. Lamptey to Coufal
    B. Reguilon to Zouma?

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      ID keep both tbh neither definitely out are they?

  11. Ninjaa
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Current squad. Getting there slowly without using the wildcard

    McCarthy 4m
    TAA Justin Saiss B.Davies 4m
    Salah Son JWP Podence Reed
    Kane Adams DCL

    1ft this week with 4m itb.
    Who should I be shipping out this week as priority and who should I be bringing in as their replacement??
    Obviously Saiss B.Davies Podence and JWP are the obvious ones but which??? Cheers.

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Saiss > Chilwell. Boring but effective.

  12. as33
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Any1 getting Rashford? thinking to do Pulisic>Rashi

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No but good move

  13. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    What do I need here lads.
    Martinez Forster
    Lamptey Chilwell Dallas Mitchell Kilman
    Salah Son Sterling Grealish Stephens
    Wilson Kane Dcl

    2 frees and 0.6 in the bank.
    Need to use at least one transfer.

    1. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Mitch to west han def?

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Looks pretty solid, move on Mitchell to bank 0.1 value?

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        My thoughts. Thanks

  14. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Hey fam! Is this a good plan?

    McCarthy (Button)
    TAA Robbo Dallas (Mitchell Ferguson)
    Salah Son Havertz Foden Podence
    Kane DCL (Davis)

    GW8 - Havertz & TAA to KDB & Lamptey for -4

    GW9 - Foden to Jota for free

    GW10 - Kane to Vardy for free

  15. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    What is more importsnt for the next 3 GWs?

    A. Jiminez to Werner
    B. Reece James to Cresswell (I own Chillwell)

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. Saka Punch
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      James may keep his place tbf

  16. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Zouma or Chilwell? Feel like Zouma is more of a goal threat and cheaper but Chilwell is a little bit more nailed, someone help

    1. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilwell

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        This

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilly

  17. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    What to do with foden?

    A...start him...weak bench

    B...sell for jwp - 4

    C...sell for bowen / fornals- 4

    Thanks

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C could work out imo

    3. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C

    4. The Reptile
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I'm in the same boat, thinking of Fornals atm

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        What happens to fornals and bowen when benrahma comes in??

  18. DavidKent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Who is more important to move on, Saiss or TAA?

    The latter is more expensive, but has higher chance to turn it around as he’s still playing.

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Saiss.

      1. DavidKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thoughts around that?

        1. nico05
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Trent has great attacking potential

  19. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Barnes to Zaha or Hamez(if he's fit)
    ?

    Like Hamez more

    1. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Why transferring out Barnes?

      1. DavidKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah, interested as to why?

        1. Niho992
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Dont like his fixtures.

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Id hold onto Barnes tbh

      1. Niho992
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Wolves and Liverpool in next 2 and he wasnt good in last 3-4 GWs tbf

        1. Garth Marenghi
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          10-13 is great

  20. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    McCarthy
    TAA Robbo Lewis
    Salah son jrod Barkley
    Mitro Jimenez maupay

    Steer Podence Taylor Ferguson

    2.8itb and 2ft

    How does this sound?

    GW8 TAA+Mitrovic to Werner+Chilwell (both Sheff u H)
    GW9 Werner to Martial (WBA H)
    GW10 Wildcard for the big fixture swing

  21. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Would you bench one of Grealish/Jrod/DCL for Kilman?

    1. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Lol

    2. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Really?

  22. Ninjaa
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Sorry but can someone explain the sudden surge for a West Ham defender ??

    1. The Gambler.
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Great fixtures imminence

    2. AuFeld
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Fixtures turn for the better.

    3. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Reasons above, also good value at 4.4/4.5 for Masuaku/Coufal as both get forward a fair bit. Cresswell also has set pieces, but is 5.1.

  23. La vida FPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Got the funds for Foden, Maupay > Ziyech, Wilson

    For -4. Or just 1?

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Maupay-Wilson. Avoid the hit

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        agree

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Just foden to ziyech

  24. nico05
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Mcarthy
    TAA Justin Lascelles Reguilon
    Salah Bruno Son Grealish
    Jimi Mitro

    Lascelles- Oriol Romeu- Davies

    2FT & 3 Mil available.
    A. TAA+Davies - Chilwell +Wilson
    B. Davies - Wilson
    C. Something else?
    Cheers

  25. Pacer.
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone feel like they have the scoop on James Maddison. Feels like he's nearing a start, finding form. Has his position been pushed further forward, are Barnes/Under threats at all when he's fully up and running. Is he being protected or will his minutes be managed longer term?

    1. Pacer.
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Context... thinking about chucking Jota in for a two week punt and trying to work out whether it's good planning when I free up the money to free up enough for a direct Maddison upgrade

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Tough one to call I would hold off taking a punt for now until becomes clearer

  26. The Yorkshire Pirlo
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Who to bring in for Ings?

    A) Kane
    B) Vardy
    C) Werner

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      c

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A for this week

      B long term

  27. Pascal's Triangle
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Play

    A.) Soucek (FUL)
    or
    B.) Podence (cry)

    Thanks

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A easy

      1. Pascal's Triangle
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

  28. Jdpz
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    McCarthy, Nyland
    TAA, Justin, Taylor, Konsa, Tierney
    Bruno, Son, Pulisic*, Bissouma, Podence
    Kane, Ings*, DCL
    1.0M in the bank, 1 free transfer.

    A) Play wildcard
    B) Ings to Vardy, TAA to Chilwell (-4)
    C) Pulisic to Grealish, Ings to Vardy (-4)
    D) Ings to Werner
    E) Ings to Bamford, Pulisic to KDB (-4)

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C

  29. ZimZalabim
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    2 fts 1 week punt before WC

    Saiss and Podence to

    A. Cresswell and Bowen
    B. Cresswell and Fornals
    C. Coufal and Mount
    D. Zouma and Bowen

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. Saka Punch
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

  30. WrightnBright
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Preferred Hammers def?

    A) Cresswell
    B) Coufal
    C) Masuaku

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      ABC in that order for me

      1. WrightnBright
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Agree I think

    4. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A