Pro Pundits

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Drogba Legend
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Bowen or Ziy?

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I took Ziyech as im most likely to keep him long term

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        probably better than Bowen long term plus u can get Antonio once hes fit

  2. OBAMA
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Are saiss and Ryan out now?

    What's the craic?

    1. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Don't know about Saiss but i think Ryan was just dropped to give him a kick up the ass and will be back in the first team for the Burnley game.

      The craic is good too. 🙂

  3. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Keep Zaha for Sure for up coming easy fixtures ?

    1. Drogba Legend
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I would if you have him

    2. Poison Apple
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Not sure abt buying but definitely keep

  4. pol
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    A- bellerin
    B- Coufal
    C-cresswell

    1. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I went for Bellerin, but I'm an Arsenal fan.

    2. Sterling Malory
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I went Cresswell, but perhaps short sighted. Bellerin is a good option.

  5. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Thinking Bruno and Mitrovic to Bowen and Kane this week and then I'm wc next week , thoughts ?

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      sound great

    2. Poison Apple
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Would prefer to wc gw10 unless the team is in shambles due to IB

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        disagree I think GW9 WC is optimal

    3. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Think Bruno has a strong chance of doing well this week. But if that's not for a hit I guess could work

      1. FantasyHero
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Just looked at your team. I would take a -4 hit to downgrade TAA and puli to bring in kane.
        Save your WC

    4. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      For sure

    5. Sterling Malory
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I've just bought Bruno in, not sure I'd sell. But I already have Kane

  6. Taegugk Warrior
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    A. Jimenez to Wilson
    B. Justin to Bellerin
    C. Save FT

    1. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      X

    2. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C

  7. Ragabolly
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Risers: Werner (9.4) Wilson (6.6) Zouma (5.3)

    Fallers: Firmino (9.2) Ings (8.4) Pereira (5.9) Rodriguez (5.8) Harry Wilson (5.1) Phillips (5.1) Marçal (4.8) Sessegnon (4.7) O'Shea (4.3) Lewis (4.3) Dunne (4.0)

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Phew dodged Ings

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Lewis 4.3 🙁

      1. Wılly
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Damn, guess I'm stuck with him

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers Ragabolly !!

      Taylor and Mitchell survive !!! excellent and no ziyech or vardy rises !!

    4. Tempestic
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Yay finally getting my money back on Werner

    5. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Rodriguez a bargain now, hopefully hes fit tomorrow v MUN

      1. chocolove
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Wrong rodriguez

    6. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Lewis in my plan wow !!!

  8. thetommy14
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Ziyech didn't rise lol

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Not surprising. It takes more transfers to get a second rise in a week

      1. thetommy14
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        I did it just in case for Pulisic but still happy with the transfer

    2. Az
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Phew!

    3. Viper
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Got Ziyech in with a minute to go. Will no doubt end up being punished

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Same

      2. Drogba Legend
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Same

      3. thetommy14
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        It feels safer with Ziyech for some reason haha

  9. OBAMA
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Are saiss and Ryan out now?

    What's the craic??

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Only thing out is ObamaCare

  10. OBAMA
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    ryan + saiss -> mendy + coufal -4?

    1. themaindanger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I would wait a week. Ryan will play this week. If you don't have anyone on the bench who can play instead of Saiss, then maybe do Saiss to Coufal, but I would roll your transfer if possible. Always good to have 2FT over an international break.

  11. Viper
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez

    KWP Robertson Chilwell (Justin)

    Salah Son Rodriguez Ziyech (Reed)

    Kane Watkins DCL

    Good to go? WC still in hand. Probably holding for gw16

  12. BigBillyBass
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Need help guys. Play 1:

    A) Kilman
    B) Foden
    C) Mitchell

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Foden

    2. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

  13. Atwood
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Saiss out for?

    Chilwell
    Zouma
    Cresswell
    Bellerin

    1. Poison Apple
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilly

      1. Luton_Fan
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        All day lol

        1. Luton_Fan
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Long rather

        2. Atwood
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Really? Zouma seems to be a bigger goal threat. Chilwell more nailed perhaps?

          1. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Can’t see Zouma keeping up this score rate. Chillwell more attacking and should be more consistent

            1. FantasyHero
              • 7 Years
              3 years, 4 months ago

              This

  14. Salah’s Sonnet
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Thank you so much everyone who helped me out on previous page about my FH team. Tweaked it, and here is the new, I guess more exciting version.

    Lloris
    Zouma - Cresswell - Chillwell
    Bowen - Ziyech - Auba - Son - Zaha
    Vardy - Kane
    ______________________________
    Forster: Brewster: Braithewaite: Bernardo

    Exact cash.

    Anything you’d change here? KDB would of been nice, moved on Salah as doesn’t have the best away record as mentioned.
    Can’t help but think it’s dependent on certain teams but then again I am attacking those Fulham West Brom and Sheff Utd fixtures.

    (For new readers of this post, using FH to cancel out a huge rage points hit, and need a boost anyway after an awful season so far 🙁 )

    Thanks for any comments guys, will keep an eye on lamps presser tomorrow.

    1. Poison Apple
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      GL

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers PA, still may change, will have to move quick though if it does after I finish work, so trying to just lay the main groundwork now.

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Fornals over zaha for me. Triple wh. And werner over vardy.

      1. Luton_Fan
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Oh sorry 3 chelsea. Jiminez over vardy then 🙂

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Oh damn yeah! I didn’t confirm it and looked and was over three chelsea haha! Could always do Zaha + Vardy > Fornals + Werner and change Zouma to Bellerin?

          1. Luton_Fan
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Sounds good

      2. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        So funny that I literally just made this change seeing the team wrote down haha! Cheers buddy. Shall have to keep an ear out though if Werner looks like starting

    3. Atwood
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      FH this week? I like the initiative. Team looks good, except I'd be keen to get Werner for Vardy

      1. Atwood
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Just seen 3 Chelsea, my bad

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Haha yeah could do wht I suggested above to accommodate werner? 🙂

          1. Atwood
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Yeah, both options are good to be fair. Really is a 50/50

      2. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Haha yeah, mainly to cancel out a big rage hit mate, disgusted with this season, i lick good players, and they just don’t do it. Captain picks more important than ever.
        Cheers man, yeah I prefer Werner but need to know of any glimpse from lamps if he looks like starting

        1. Atwood
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          You're not the only one. Someone I know is very good at FPL, has a team I really like the look of and yet is 100+ points behind me.

          1. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Yeah mad aint it! Used to win all my ML’s, more of a seasoned player than anyone in the leagues, yet I’m almost bottom, no words really. No idea what I’ve done wrong.

          2. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Hey by the way, I work in biochemistry, and I actually did someone’s bloods the other day and his name was literally Arnold Rimmer, I laughed so hard for so long, there is actually an Arnold Rimmer out there! For real! Lol!

            1. Atwood
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 4 months ago

              Haha...poor guy must get references all the bloody time

              1. Salah’s Sonnet
                • 12 Years
                3 years, 4 months ago

                I know yeah, or......he loves him that much he changed his name to it haha! Still, so funny.

    4. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Auba hasn't shown good attacking this season so imo downgrade him maybe to kdb or bruno(think he will do well this week)
      Also on a FH chilly is risky
      He could be rested ...I would put bellerin instead.
      Just my opinion ofc.

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Why would Bruno do well this week? Everton away not an easy fixture

        1. FantasyHero
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Not an easy fixture to win for sure but I feel there will be goals.
          Everton not good defensively.
          But yes its a risk..but I feel less of a risk than auba

          1. Pukki Blinders
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            I'm a United fan and would rather Auba this week, United's form has been woeful

      2. FantasyHero
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Also regarding werner .... lamp was resting him last week but puli got injured...could he rest him this week?

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          That’s very true, need to keep an eye on lamps presser, if any incline of him out then it’s Werner to vardy 🙂

      3. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah Bellerin is in now: renewed version is:

        Lloris
        Bellerin - Cresswell - Chillwell
        Fornals - Son - Auba - Ziyech - Bowen
        Kane - Werner

        Auba......he’s just a huge differential is all, and need that FH to work for me I guess. Could very well downgrade him to KDB, i don’t trust Bruno or United right now and I’m a Man U fan lol!
        Chillwell I think should play, he’s part of why chelsea have improved, surely Lamps will wanna keep that going maybe

        1. FantasyHero
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Fair enough.
          Good luck mate. Hope it works out!

          1. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Cheers mate me too! God I really need it 🙂

  15. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Managed to get Werner in before his rise. Phew.

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      He’s still even below his starting price which is cool as well

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Here's a medal

  16. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    I am struggling to take TAA out, last time I did that he hauled 20pts+ last season and it ruined me.

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I did the same last season but that was on me knowing it was a bad decision. This time round if I had him I would do it in a heartbeat. Proving no value this season.

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Guarantee you won't be thinking that in a few weeks

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          I hope I’m wrong for sure! Then again I don’t own him, I have Robertson

    2. Atwood
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Leicester away? I did that too. One of my all time FPL mistakes.

  17. Drogba Legend
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Just went Puli > Ziyech. Will have to probably use Kane/Robbo to fund my KDB move next GW. G2G?

    Mendy
    Robbo - Chill - Dallas
    Salah - Son - Ziyech - Grealish
    Kane (C) - DCL - Bamford

    Steer - Saiss - Stephens - 3.9

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Gtg

    2. thetommy14
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Same transfer and very similar teams G2G mate

    3. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      gtg ,Son c?

  18. Kloppen Schloppen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Bench one of these:
    Balbuena (FUL)
    Kilman (lei)
    Soucek (FUL)

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      easy B

    2. Drogba Legend
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. Luton_Fan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Kilman

  19. bso
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Of these, which 3 should start: Salah-Rodrigues-Bamford-Grealish?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Salah-Bamford-Grealish

      1. bso
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        ARS have only let in 7 goals all season. The lowest in the league...so a bit concerned about Grealish. What do you think?

        1. The Hunt
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          They're due to ship in a barrowload then.

          1. bso
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            OK...will go with Grealish

  20. Taegugk Warrior
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    play justin or mitchell..?

    1. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I believe Mitchell has been ruled out.

  21. ClaireT
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Is there a replacement for Foden that would be worth a -4 ?

    3.6 ITB to play with

    McCarthy, Button
    Justin, TAA, Coufal, Holding, Lascelles
    Foden, Salah, Son, Reed, Pereria
    DCL, Wilson, Kans

    1. ClaireT
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      *kane

    2. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      GTG

  22. C_G
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    this gtg??

    no FTs left, also 0 ITB

    Martinez

    Chilwell Zouma Lamptey

    Podence Salah Son (C) JRod

    Vardy Kane DCL

    Steer Justin Joginho Mitchell

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      GTG

  23. FC Hakkebøf
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez
    TAA Chilwell Lamptey*
    Salah Son Ziyech Grealish
    Kane DCL Maupay
    ____
    Forster Saiss* Stephens 3.9

    1 Ft

    A) Save (Maupay + Kane -> Werner + Antonio next for free)
    B) Saiss to Coufal (Son to Bruno / Kane to Werner / Save next week)

    Saiss likely to be dropped, but nothing is certain yet, right?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Maupay to Wilson?

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Sideways

  24. Boomerang V
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Kane or Son captain?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Kane easily

    2. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Son

    3. The Hunt
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I've captained Kane pretty much all season but I'm switching to Son this weekend.

  25. Johan Queef
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    McCarthy

    TAA* Robbo* Lamptey (Taylor, Mitchell)

    Salah, Son, Rodriguez, Trossard, Grealish

    Kane, Mitro (Brewster)

    Hoping J.Rod is fit and giving Mitro one more game as want 2FT next week.

    A) Robbo to Chilwell.
    B) TAA to Chilwell.

    I know I may as well flip a coin but interested in what others think!

    1. Atwood
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Like you said 50/50.

      For what it's worth I thought TAA started the season poorly but has been looking much, much better in recent games.

      1. Johan Queef
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah I was set on Robbo last week due to the money saving, now it's more difficult.

        Just read the article on the Endowment Effect and that is essentially me as a Liverpool fan.

        I need the money to be able to shift around Trossard/Mitrovic/Brewster in future weeks so it's a sensible move.

    2. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

  26. Chelsea91
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez,
    Robbo,PVA,Chilwell
    Salah,Zaha(vc),Son(c),Grealish
    Kane,Dcl,Wilson

    Button Romeu,Dallas,Douglas

    Good to go for GW 8? 0 FT and 0.00 itb

  27. Viper
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    I just noticed with my team, I have 2 x Aston Villa, 2 x Everton, 2 x Liverpool, 2 x Chelsea, 2 x Spurs (1x Southampton) in my starting team. Pretty unusual I'd imagine

  28. Bonus magnet
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    which transfer?

    1. barkely -> bowen
    2. barkley+mahrez->bowen+ziyech
    3.barkley+jimenez-> ziyech+haller
    4. save ft

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      4

  29. The Reptile
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Mitchell dropping _ thats a surprise

    1. Chelsea91
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      PVA will replace him

  30. The Reptile
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    I didn't see that coming, gonna lose 0.1 on him