Pro Pundits

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Esalman
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Taking a hit for below. GTG?

    McCarthy
    Lamptey Coufal Reguilón
    Zaha Salah Son(C) Rodríguez
    Werner Wilson Jiménez
    Ryan Bissouma Walker-Peters Justin

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Bissouma last on bench IMO.

      Good luck mate

      1. Esalman
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers!

        1. Bad Kompany
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          The defenders are more likely to concede but get way more for a cs. Also have similar attacking potential.

          Out of interest, what were the transfers?

          1. Esalman
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            Robertson+Brewster to Coufal+Wilson. Hoping not to get punished by Robertson lol. But it allows me to potentially bring in KDB and/or Bruno next week.

            1. Bad Kompany
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 4 months ago

              Good moves. Fixtures turning for both those you brought in. Wilson has done very well. Robertson isn’t worth it if they aren’t regular keeping cs imo.

  2. Bad Kompany
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts?

    McCarthy
    TAA Doherty ayling lamptey
    Salah son havertz Barnes
    Kane bamford

    Fodder coady fodder fodder

    Barnes to ziyech was the plan but will now be Havertz to ziyech. Don’t think anything is worth a hit. Will activate wc after deadline for next gw

    1. Esalman
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I'd do it. Really liked the look of Ziyech last week.

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers! He’s a classy player

        1. Esalman
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Yep. Due to his style of play, I think he'll be key against bottom teams who sit back. It's going to help Chelsea get more points against those teams, and more fpl points for himself than any other Chelsea player.

    2. sunzip14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Gtg. Who is your captain?

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Kane.

        Him over son because wba will sit deep so there won’t be space to run in behind. He has much better xg and xa.

  3. sunzip14
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    What is your order of preference of these three? One will start.

    A) Justin (Wolves)
    B) Mitchell (Leeds)
    C) Taylor (Brighton)

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Cab

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        I trust Brighton’s attack the least to score. Wolves and Leeds are rarely shut out. Burnley defense hasn’t been great but they do well historically against teams in the lower part of the table.

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      C
      A
      B

    3. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Acb

    4. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Acb

      1. Sloane426
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Abc

  4. bombayblues
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Any update on James Rodriguez?

  5. Isco Disco
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Probably a dumb question for some, but who to play out of Robertson (mci) and Lamptey (BUR)?

    1. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Lamptey for me

    2. Bielsa Murderball
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Lamptey imo

    3. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Feels weird but think it’s got to be lamptey

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Who are you’re other defenders?

        1. Isco Disco
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Chilwell (SHU) and Cresswell (FUL)

    4. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Both imo

    5. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Robertson

  6. ritzyd
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Should i take a hit to remove saiss or mitchell? Have brewster first sub

    Martinez
    Taa, lamptey, kwp
    Salah, sterling, son, grealish, soucek
    Werner, dcl

    Button, brewster, saiss, mitchell

    GTG?

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No imo. Your defenders are fine for this gw so no reason for a hit

  7. TKC07
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    With 1 FT 0itb, which transfer(s) would you suggest?

    Martinez | Forster
    Coufal | Konsa | *Saiss* | *Mitchell* | Lamptey
    Salah | Sterling | Grealish | *Podence* | Bissouma
    Kane | Werner | *Jimenez*

    1. Sterling => Zaha/Bowen/Fornals (no hit) - Concerned about city form and next 2 fixtures.
    2. Podence & Jimenez => Zaha/Bowen/Fornals & Wilson (for -4)
    3. Replace one of the defenders (Saiss, Lamptey)?
    4. Save FT
    5. Any other suggestions?

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Definitely not 1. wolves attackers are fine for the next 2. I’d replace saiss so you don’t have to start konsa this gw

    2. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      3 - replace Saiss

  8. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Ughhh lewis dropped yet again. Wasnt even that close

    Worst buy of the season

    1. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Good value for non buyers after couple of weeks Errrrrrrr

  9. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Martinez
    Chilwell Lamptey Kilman
    Salah Mane Son Foden
    Kane DCL Watkins

    (Steer Biss Saiss Mitchell)
    1 FT & 0.1m

    GW8: Mane & Watkins ➡️ Grealish & Werner -4

    GW9: Save FT

    GW10: Kane, Foden & Saiss ➡️ Ant/Bam, KDB & Dias/Cancelo -4

    Thoughts on this plan?

    1. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Seems good but the international break could well throw a spanner in the works

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      You prefer Werner than Vardy?

      Vardy wont ever be benched, wont ever play on the left, fixtures as good if not better.

      1. wijohnson85
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Leicester at home are poor. I think Chelsea starting to get in gear and have some decent fixtures. Like the plan but don’t like lots of hits.

        1. Karan14
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          Couple of hits over 3 gameweeks is not much?

          Im not liking the Pool double up and Watkins as my Villa attacker so this weeks transfers are more to get on the right track and free up some cash.

      2. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        I like Vardy from GW10 onwards.
        Also next 2 fixtures for Chelsea (SHU, new) looks much better than Leicester's (WOL, liv).

        My GW10 transfers can also be Kane, Werner & Foden to Vardy, Ant/Bam & KDB.

    3. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Looks good on paper. I probably would have to get rid of Kane to get KdB as well. But I just can't plan it now given his form. Man has 22 G+A in 13 games this season.
      I'd see how City do against Liverpool and Spurs before considering.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Yes definitely I will only make these transfer after watching City & Spurs in GW9. I also have a route to KDB by upgrading Son and keeping Kane but would involve not owning a City defender.

        1. WE GO FOR IT
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          I like that tbh.

          I feel over the course of the season, Kane will outperform Son and City's defense is just not trustworthy.

          1. Karan14
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            You could definitely be right but I feel Son's goal scoring ability on the counter attack might make him a better option than Kane for the tougher fixtures. Definitely something to wait and see for the City vs Spurs game atleast.

  10. FPL Bond @ Twitter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Barnes+Saiss> Grealish+Bellerin for -4??

    1. wijohnson85
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      If it’s a long term move then yea I like that a lot

      1. wijohnson85
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Or Cresswell as an alternative

    2. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Looks good, Arsenal's defense has definitely improved this year.

  11. wijohnson85
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Bench 2 from Semedo, Soucek, Justin, Grealish, Jimenez, Ayling?

    Thinking Justin and maybe Semedo although think wolves could get a CS given Leicester home form

    1. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Tough but i would bench Semedo and Ayling

    2. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Ayling,Justin

    3. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Ayling and Justin imo

    4. GAMBIT
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      If you considering benching Jimenez, then it would be better to sell

      1. wijohnson85
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Like him home to Southampton next week

    5. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Why are Grealish and Jimenez there?

      Ayling and Semedo for me

      1. wijohnson85
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        They’re there in spirit. Grealish away at a solid arsenal and wolves don’t score so not mental. Like asking to see if others think I’m missing something. Was always 2 from Ayling, Semedo, James in my mind.

  12. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Think I'll go Lewis over Kilman@4.3 on WC next week now, better fixtures, more nailed and more attacking threat.

  13. WE GO FOR IT
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Best Saiss replacement?

    A. WHU defender (Coufal/Masuaku/Cresswell)
    B. Zouma
    C. Chilwell. Would have to take a hit to get him. (Pulisic to Grealish or Foden to Barkley/Trossard)

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Chilwell & Pulisic to Grealish imo

      1. WE GO FOR IT
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers! I really wanted a Chelsea attacker in the next 2 weeks at least. Had Saiss been nailed on, I would have gone Pulisic to Ziyech and saved the cash.

        How does Zouma + Ziyech for Pulisic + Saiss sound for a hit?

        1. Karan14
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 4 months ago

          This one looks good too. I just feel Grealish is set & forget for many weeks to come and should score similar or more than Chelsea mids.

          1. WE GO FOR IT
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 4 months ago

            True. I actually was going to go for him last week instead of Pulisic. But Chelsea's fixtures swayed it. Hopefully him and Villa keep up their form. Their fixtures after the Arsenal game are amazing.

            1. Karan14
              • 7 Years
              3 years, 4 months ago

              Yes I'm finding it very hard to go without Grealish looking at those fixtures, his form & stats. I think he's really motivated this season wants to seal his spot for the Euro's and possibly a big money transfer next season.

    2. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      B

      1. WE GO FOR IT
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers! 🙂

        Would you do Pulisic to Ziyech along with Zouma for a hit?

  14. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Play Justin or Saiss?

    1. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Justin

    2. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Justin

    3. wijohnson85
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      If Saiss was starting I’d say him. Leicester poor at home and wolves looking good at the back. Saiss is roulette though

    4. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Justin

  15. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Good to go? Play Ayling or KWP?

    Martinez
    Lamptey* Coufal KWP
    Salah KDB Son Grealish Zaha
    Kane* DCL

    Forster; Ayling, Kilman, Brewster

    1. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      KWP in my opinion

  16. Pieterke30
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    ??
    A. Cresswell + Werner
    B. Coufal + Vardy

    1. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A!

    2. GAMBIT
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Definitely A

      1. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Why definitely??

        After WOL (H), Vardy plays Pool who he very often scores against, then FUL, SHU who he hates as a Wednesday fan, than BHA and EVE @home.

        Werner vs Vardy is a 50/50 call for me.

    3. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A

  17. GAMBIT
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Have both Hamez and Lamptey flagged, should I be concerned?

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Wait for pressers.

  18. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    What are your thoughts on Podence > Bowen -4? Im concerned Podence could be due a rest for Adama, and i see Bowen doing well over the next 3. Just feels right

    1. FPL ElasticO
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah worth doing the transfer good fixtures for Bowen should outscore Podence

  19. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Which transfers worth doing?? Need some assistance guys....

    A. Jim & Barkley >> Bamford & Bowen/Fornals for free
    B. Jim / Barkley / Saiss >> Bamford / Bowen / Chilwell for -4 hit.

  20. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Which combo to start this GW??

    A. Ryan & KWP
    B. McCarthy & Justin

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      A. But Ryan might be benched again so you'll need McCarthy anyway

  21. si
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Pulisic was back in training 2 days ago. He must stand a chance of starting? Although more likely to be injured again already

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      He won't start for sure imo. Lampard is not going risk his hamstrings again with IB coming up.

  22. The-Red-1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Here's my team:

    Martinez Steer
    Konsa, Mitchell, Robbo, Coufal, Zouma
    Bissouma Mane Zaha Ziech Son
    Kane Bamford DCL.
    1.6itb

    I really want to get KDB in on the next couple of weeks.

    Which of these (or anything else?)
    Zaha and Robbo out for KDB Kilman
    Son and Robbo out for KDB Chilwell
    Kane and Bissouma out for KDB Brewster (would then play 352)

    1. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      None. Don't like the idea of removing Robbo, Kane or Son.

      1. The-Red-1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Mane and Bissouma out, Jota and KDB in?

  23. Peter Ouch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    I am thinking to take robbo out for James.
    For a hit.
    Already got Chilwell in this week.

    Someone to stop me please....or let me do it?

    1. Messiah Hazard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I took a -12 to get rid of underperforming and injured players. -4 is ok. Go ahead.

      1. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        James or zouma then?

    2. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      No way.

    3. niaz1982
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Not sure on Chelsea double up

    4. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Madness. Robbo will definitely outscore James by good margin over the long term.

      1. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Overthinking...

  24. niaz1982
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Already done a transfer but thinking I should make another looking at Berkeley to Ziyech for -4 is it worth the hit?

  25. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Current defence
    Guaita
    Kilman Robertson zouma Taylor dunne

    1.6 ITB
    Get lamptey/Cresswell/Chilwell any other defender for a hit? Or play kilman?

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Never hit for a defender. Just play Kilman

      1. The Red Devil
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Kilman ahead of Taylor right?

  26. akhilrajau
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Select 2 players to play
    A. Podence
    B. Coufal
    C. Mitchell
    D. Taylor

  27. jorgenoj
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Best midfielder for this gw? Max 8.6.

    1. Ritchies Magic Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Zahara?

      1. Ritchies Magic Hat
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 4 months ago

        Er - Zaha even!

  28. Ritchies Magic Hat
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Would you rather have Grealish or Rashford this week?

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Rashford.

    2. Pukkipartyy
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Grealish allday

  29. Kabayan
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Havertz to Ziyech is on the card.

    Saiss to Chilwell worth -4? (Will play him ahead of Dallas/Watkins)

    1. Pukkipartyy
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      I would do it.

  30. Goodricke
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 4 months ago

    Keep Foden or change to Bowen for -4. Somebody on here said he would be playing as a striker this week.

    1. Pukkipartyy
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 4 months ago

      Swap to Bowen