What is Bruno Fernandes?

Bruno Fernandes (£10.8m) is now the fifth highest scorer this season with 68 points. His returns are six goals (7th), three assists (8th), and 12 bonus points (1st). He is top of FPL’s form metric. He has achieved all of this despite missing Gameweek 1.

And yet, he seems overpriced for many FPL managers. His goalscoring record seems very reliant on penalties, though both Jamie Vardy (£10.2m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.2m) have scored more penalties than him. His assists record, despite being in a middling team, is very impressive. This piece attempts to look into the methods behind the consistency of this man.

The returns

Fernandes’s returns this season show a predictable balance. In his three games against ‘Big Six’ sides, he blanked against Chelsea and Arsenal (the first time he blanked consecutively), and was taken off on 45 minutes against Tottenham (after scoring a penalty). Against the other sides, bar the opening game against Crystal Palace where match fitness was an issue, he has scored double-digit points every time. 12 against Brighton, 11 against Newcastle (with a missed penalty), 17 against Everton, and 11 against West Brom.

His three assists appear well merited, as he has an xA of 2.5. He has had the most touches in the final third in the league, the most number of passes into the box, and the most chances created.

If he maintains his current point-scoring rate since joining the league over a whole season (e.g. 3,000 minutes), he would very likely become the sixth midfielder in FPL history to achieve 250+ points (at his current rate since joining early February, 8.82 points per game, he would only need 2,550 minutes).

He has now clocked over 1,800 minutes across both seasons, which sum up to 20 full games. Whether you find his record sustainable or not, the question also is how long can he sustain this? If he has been able to do it over 20 games, what’s stopping him from doing it for another 5 games?

Fernandes in open play

Fernandes has averaged 18 league goals in the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons. He seems on track to match that this season given he already has six. But for someone with such impressive goalscoring, his shot map comprises a variety of long-range, low xG shots, which he does not convert prolifically.

Fernandes is effective inside the box but rarely shoots from there. This season, he has scored three goals from five open-play shots inside the box. This shot volume is very low, relative to other premium assets, and resembles a deep midfielder or even a full-back. Ben Chilwell (£6.1m) has had five shots in the box already, despite starting in Gameweek 4 and playing at left-back.

Over his Man Utd career in the league, he has taken 44 shots outside the box (three goals, 1.55 xG), but only 16 inside it (four goals, 2.31 xG). This adds up to 60 non-penalty shots for seven goals, in 1,800+ minutes. 

Players such as Salah blow Fernandes’s shot map out of the water, but he does not even compare well to premium assets without significant shots in the box, such as Son Heung-min (£9.5m) or Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m).

De Bruyne is already near 10 non-penalty shots in the box despite missing a lot more minutes. Son’s quirk is his lack of shots, but most of his shots are still inside the box (nine goals from his last 11 shots on target). As such, Fernandes’s shot map is a weakness, with Hakim Ziyech (£8.3m) the only one who might turn out potentially similar.

Bruno’s Penalty Taking Exploits

Given Fernandes has a comparatively low NPxG (non-penalty xG), and is not significantly outperforming it, this would indicate a midfielder who targets 10 goals a season. Something like David Silva perhaps. But, we have not mentioned his main source of goals, penalties.

Going back to shots in the box, let’s add penalties to it. Including penalties, Fernandes has scored 11 goals from 24 shots in the box, and his xG rises to 8.39. He goes from an expected goal every 4-5 games, to an expected goal every 2.5 games (which he outperforms since he averages a goal every 1.8 games). 

He is in a team which averages 13 penalties every season (a penalty every three matches) since the start of 2018/19, well before his arrival. And so, an unremarkable shot map translates to a midfielder scoring 14 goals in 1,846 minutes from an xG of 9.9. As mentioned earlier, 1,800+ minutes is not a small burst of form. This is rather a midfielder who is turning a 10-goal season into a 20+ goal season (for contrast, Frank Lampard hit 20 league goals just once) through penalties.

As shown below, this is one of the most atypical routes to goalscoring at such a scale in FPL history. The difference between his xG and NPxG is absolutely staggering.

Bruno’s Creativity

Fernandes’s three assists this season form a clear strength: counter-attacks. His first assist, for Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) against Brighton, came via a through ball from inside his own half (Rashford ran half the pitch, juked a defender twice, and scored). His second assist followed the same pattern; a through ball from inside his own half to Rashford who scored a late counter-attack against Newcastle. And finally, another counter attack where he set up Edinson Cavani (£8.0m) from the edge of the box against Everton. The last two came during injury time, indicating Bruno’s worth as a 90-minute player as games open up late on (if Man Utd are winning).

As valuable as these contributions are, Fernandes is unlikely to get many assists from through balls that are closer to his own box than the opponent’s. The counter attacks should suit bigger games more, where he has not scored heavily till now, rather than smaller sides where Man Utd average more possession.

But he may not see a reduction in overall assists. His underlying numbers (highest passes into the box, highest number of chances created) could mean he starts delivering on his potential in non-counter attacks. Fernandes virtually leads on all build-up and playmaking stats. The game against West Brom was promising, where he created multiple big chances and was very unfortunate to not get an assist. 

Explaining the numbers

A deep dive into Man Utd’s issues with breaking down deep defences is beyond the scope of this article, but it could be worth pointing out some basic elements as to why Bruno rarely ventures into the box.

Fernandes suffers from the fact he is in a defensive team. Man Utd are not a fixture-proof side. They have a good defensive structure which covers individual defensive weaknesses (their greatest achievement is how they have managed similar defensive numbers to past seasons despite David de Gea’s (£5.4m) massive decline in form), and some incredible pace on the counter.

They don’t, however, have a workable plan in possession which does not leave them open at the back (whenever Paul Pogba (£7.7m) or Donny van de Beek (£6.7m) start in the midfield pivot this season, they concede goals).

This is underlined by how often they pass safely, recycling the ball without creating much. They are first on attempted short passes, 10th in medium-range passes, and 16th in long-range passes.

As reference, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea, are in the top four for each of those categories. This indicates Man Utd play out of the back as much as these three, but are not attempting many riskier, line-breaking long-range passes (e.g. passes from defence to forwards, or switches of play).

As such, Fernandes is doing multiple roles: he drops deep to get the ball; helps find a way to get the ball (and himself) into the final third; and then tries to either score or create a chance. As such, he is rarely able to get into the box. This sounds a lot closer to a box-to-box number 8, rather than a chief playmaker who stays high up the pitch.

This table below shows this. Fernandes averages as many touches as Kevin De Bruyne in the middle or final third, but massively tails off inside the box. Given how Man City has a lot more possession, Fernandes keeping up with De Bruyne on touches in midfield is very impressive.

This means Fernandes is often able to create a lot of chances (though, as mentioned before, he has yet to record an assist in possession-based attacks). But it also means he rarely gets into the box, even if he is good at converting from them when he does.

Perhaps his brace and assist against Everton best highlights this. He had two shots in the box, and scored both of them. But, those two shots were his only touches in the box.

Will he regress?

This leads into the last bit, will he regress?

Statistical experience suggests he might, penalties remain an unreliable source of goals and it is hard to sustain them from one season to the next. But for those wanting to stick to Bruno, there is potential good news. Speaking to MUTV after the Everton game, his manager said:

Great performance [by Fernandes]. Of course leading the boys, there’s desire and determination. He’s everywhere on the pitch! Sometimes that frustrates me, because sometimes there’s passes being played where he should have been and he’s not there.

– Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

This indicates Solskjaer wants Fernandes closer to the box, and does not want him dropping deeper to link up the play. As such, a decline in penalties could be compensated with increased open-play threat. However, it is hard to imagine any combination of Scott McTominay (£4.9m), Fred (£5.3m) or Nemanja Matic (£4.8m) really improving to the point where Man Utd can control games through possession.

As such, Solskjaer will have to rejig his midfield to find solutions for the problem he has identified. This writer’s opinion is the answer lies with Pogba coming back into form, given how the Frenchman’s passing range and all-round ability can help connect midfield. Man Utd’s best run of form often coincides with Pogba’s. But he has been incredibly poor so far this season and may remain so.

It would also require a lot of adaptability for Van de Beek to work out in that role long-term. Van de Beek’s best abilities are finding space (especially inside the box), receiving the ball and shooting. He has never excelled in a deeper role at Ajax, and has not been trusted for that role in Premier League games. Perhaps if he is able to shine, we may see him in a 4-3-3 with Fernandes, who is then allowed to stay deeper.

But all of this is speculation for now, and a defensive-minded duo is seemingly here to stay for at least a few more games. Until then, we’re left with the question: will he regress given how unreliable penalties tend to be, or will they stay as they have done over the last two-and-a-half years?

Because even 10 more weeks of someone who’s output resembles prime Frank Lampard could be season defining. Good assist potential, enough goals from open play to tick over, and when all else fails, someone else must pay the penalty.