Pro Pundits

Three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser on City, captaincy and the Blanks and Doubles

The reigning FPL champion of India, Lateriser, shares his thoughts ahead of the Gameweek 16 deadline.


Things are moving incredibly fast in the Fantasy Premier League world and it’s important to stay on top of things and react. Traditionally, this is the period where the engaged FPL managers make ground on the casuals (who are getting not so casual, year on year).

For your information, I am writing this article on the morning after Saturday’s games so the piece will not contain relevant information from Sunday’s matches. Due to the current fifth-gear nature of FPL, this will be a freestyle ramble of all things I want to address.

First up, we need to talk about Manchester City. They are one of the prime culprits for my poor start to the season. In my Gameweek 3 Wildcard, I got in a triple City midfield and have had two City attackers for the most part of the season.

That explains my rank (1.7 million at the time of writing, which is a lot better than the 3.1 million it was in Gameweek 12). It has taken me so long to readjust my thinking in this case and I have definitely failed to adapt. Their fixtures from Gameweek 10 to 15 seduced me like prime Demi Moore (Burnley, Fulham, West Brom an Newcastle at home) and being a fixtures guy all my life, I jumped in.

I mean, we’re talking about Pep Guardiola and the most attacking team in the country for the past three years. But one of the signs of a good FPL manager is to adapt. I didn’t and my rank shows that. After watching Manchester City play Newcastle United last night, I was convinced that the play with the Citizens is their defence not their attack. I know I’m stating the obvious but we have three viable defender options from Guardiola’s side (I own two of them), all three of whom are under £6.0m.

For what they offer for their price, I personally think that taking the odd rest/rotation from them is fine because of the significant value they offer. City are playing a different brand of football (all audition games for the Champions League knockout stages) and we need to re-align our thinking with their attack.

One manager who did adapt is my pod-partner and fellow Pro Pundit, Zophar. He’s been sitting on double City defence since his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and reaping the rewards. That move reeks of low-key shrewdness that can go a long way in having a good season. He was sitting at 970k on his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and is currently at 119k.

What about Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m), though? Well, if we’re talking about the game yesterday, except for that one-on-one chance, he didn’t do much else.

Manchester City are eighth amongst all teams filtered by shots in the box over the last four matches. Yes, De Bruyne is shooting a lot and is playing further up the field, but I get the feeling that while he’s a clean striker of the ball, he takes a fair amount of time to get his shot off. As a result, a large chunk of his efforts just seem to get blocked.

Here’s some more data for you. These are the average expected per goals 90 minutes (xG/90) figures for Manchester City this year and the past three years:

SeasonxG/90
2020/211.6
2019/202.5
2018/192.2
2017/182.1

It just seems like us holding De Bruyne at the moment is for three reasons: ability, history and fear. Yes, he may explode and get a game with a penalty, an assist and a goal. But the more you actually watch Manchester City, the further away such a haul seems given that Pep Guardiola is channelling his inner Louis van Gaal these days.

I myself haven’t made the decision whether I’m holding or selling him but I will need to before Gameweek 16. To fund Harry Kane (£11.0m) into my team, I either need to downgrade Jack Grealish (£7.8m) to Raphinha (£5.4m) or move De Bruyne to Son Heung-min (£9.7M). It’s fair to say that I’ll be scouting some players tonight and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) is also someone I am monitoring closely.

A lot of you will be on a Wildcard while reading this article and I’d like to reiterate and say that don’t have a single-minded, tunnel-vision focus on just the Blank and Double Gameweeks. Every Gameweek counts and focusing on just Gameweek 18 and 19 isn’t going to help you. I urge again to look at the fixtures for players you are bringing in on your Wildcard before Gameweek 18 and after Gameweek 19.

At the moment, I’m looking at going chipless in Gameweek 18 and maybe using the Triple Captain chip in Gameweek 19. It is with this thought that I recruited both the Manchester City centre-backs before Gameweek 15 so as to play them in Gameweeks 18 and 19, and I particularly like their fixtures from Gameweek 20-22.

I’ll briefly talk about captaincy in Gameweeks 16 and 17. Scanning through the fixtures, Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) and the Spurs attacking duo stand out as captaincy options. The game against the Cottagers seems like a more Kane than Son game as I expect Fulham to sit deep, which means more chances closer to the box for the England international.

That said, Fulham are on a bit of a resurgence and are in the best five teams for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last four matches. Spurs, on the other hand, are second only to West Brom for expected goals (xG), but we’ve seen that this does not seem to matter with them too much because if they score, it is very highly likely that their premium FPL duo will be involved.

I just happen to trust Salah and Liverpool a lot more than Spurs at the moment, which is why Salah will likely have my armband in Gameweek 16. Unlike Fulham, Newcastle are in the worst five defences in the league for expected goals conceded in the last five matches.

Gameweek 17, though, is where I’m looking to captain a Spurs attacker. A match against Leeds United should be considered as a prime fixture for captaincy and on paper, this just looks like a Son game to me, given the space Leeds United offer their opposition. The one good thing about this game is that we know that Bielsa is stubborn about his style of play and we can rely on him to offer the opposition tonnes of space to run behind. This captaincy call in Gameweek 18 might be what influences my transfer decision later tonight, depending on how the games pan out.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading what is possibly my last article for the calendar year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is a much better year for all of us.

As a side note, I would like to thank Fantasy Football Scout for the opportunity to write for them and all of you for reading my articles, supporting me and always providing me with valuable feedback.

Given the year that we’ve had, I’d just like to add a small note on mental health. I haven’t had a good season from an FPL point of view (so far) but I’m slowly beginning to climb the table. That hasn’t affected my enjoyment of the game at all.

Firstly, those of you that are struggling should remember that at the end of the day, this is just a game and that is exactly how you should treat it. If you ask me personally, I’m really enjoying this challenge of a bad start and am simply focusing on making good decisions week on week.

One of the best things about this game is that it enables you to talk to likeminded strangers from all over the world and develop new friendships. That is the essence of the FPL community. That is the primary. The rank is secondary. A lot of you ask me about my rank goal and I personally feel it is too early to think about that. FPL is about assimilating information between Gameweeks and then making decisions. Focus on that and make good decisions and leave the rest to chance because the rest isn’t in your control.

Secondly, the ‘perceived’ bad luck appears greater than it is because of the slow-drip of games that we are witnessing. So if you do end up watching a lot of matches, you do end up seeing a lot of chances missed, which just leads to a greater tilt. Just know that on an average, it takes four to five chances for a player to score a goal and these single incidents become magnified in your head because in most cases, you are watching one game at a time. Expectation management during FPL is a thing so that you don’t drive yourself crazy.

 I repeat, it’s just a game.


What is FPL Upside Chasing and how can I implement it in 2020/21?
1,821 Comments Post a Comment
  1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Morning fellas, thoughts on my team and where I can reinforce? FH GW18 as well. Thanks.

    0.1 ITB
    1 FT

    Martinez
    Cancelo | Cresswell | Chillwell | Taylor
    Podence | Salah (C) | Sterling | Son
    Bamford | Kane (V)

    GK: Steer | Watkins | Dallas | Anguissa

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      What’s your plan for gw 19? I’d play Watkins and maybe Dallas over cresswell and maybe Chilwell

      1. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This..

      2. MoSalalalalalalalalah
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Just trying to get in strong options now for GW19. Free Hit in 18. But, I will take what you have said into consideration. Thanks

    2. jomikijiq
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Podence -> Raphinha/Soucek
      or
      Watkins -> Wood/Adams

      1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks, Wood has been tempting me, specifically for the short term, but not sure if the trade is worth it. Podence though I'm happy to keep after the game vs Man U

    3. VincentVega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Id' dump Chilwell .... Chelsea are in a slump, all is not well and will be rested most likely. I would make a case for Tierney ...good fixtures, very attacking and maybe Arteta is seeing the light.

      1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Can't see Arsenal not conceding though

        1. VincentVega
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Things go in cycles .... Arsenal due to get a bit better. We will see.

  2. NoName
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Start Justin or Coufal?

    1. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Justin easy, assist or two likely vs this palace side

    2. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Justin

    3. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      J

    4. NoName
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Clear enough. Cheers all.

  3. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Rp
    Which WBA fwd would you fancy vs Leeds?

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      None. I needed to look up who their forwards even were

  4. acidicleo
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Score predictions this gameweek.
    A) Wilson (LIV)
    B) Adams (WHU)

    1. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      8
      2

    2. @persecuted_by_mods
        3 years, 3 months ago

        2
        5

        1. Bad Kompany
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          🙂

      • Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        2
        5

      • acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers may save a FT and stick with Wilson.

    3. PocketZola
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Gtg? I cracked and got bruno in for a hit, will fh in 18

      Martinez
      Coufal chilwell rob dallas
      Salah bruno kdb bowen
      Bam kane

      Subs, Brewster, biss, mitchell

      1. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Bruno is season keeper

    4. _Gunner
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Pick 2 to get in for Matip and Lewis (for Free)

      A- Dallas
      B- Dier/Reguilion/Aurier
      C- Taylor

      1. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Dallas and Taylor

      2. Third Eye Vision
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Dallas & Dier.

    5. The Artist
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Would you captain Kane or Son over Salah this GW?

      1. Eleven Hag
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        No Fulham are doing good and spurs would treat them like Barcelona

        1. Bad Kompany
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          This

      2. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Salah feels more safe..He is less likely to blank consecutively.
        On the other hand Spurs may be more attacking at home and Jose may be worried about clinging on to 1-0 due to recent results..

    6. JabbaWookiee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Morning all. Another day another deadline dilemma...

      Do I switch out Adams (WHU) for Bamford (wba) now, or give him one last week? Missed Bamford price rise anyway.

      1. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        It’s for free btw

      2. PocketZola
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Just get it over with, less thinking

      3. yanky
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        why switch out adams before a dgwk? can u get bamford from other two strikers?

        1. JabbaWookiee
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          DCL is the other one. Think I’ll give them each another week and roll the FT. Can see WBA being resilient at home and it’s the kind of move that would come back to bite me.

      4. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I was considering bringing in Adams due to dgw19 but not very sure about him...

    7. KaKa37
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Who is the start one?
      1, Wilson
      2, Podence,
      3, Bowen

      And Start GK?
      A, Martinez
      B, McCathy

      Thanks

      1. PocketZola
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        1A

        1. KaKa37
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          thank you

    8. Jinswick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Any obvious transfers here? Have 8 starters & 4FT left for GW18 so will build for that and then FH in GW19.

      McCarthy
      Bellerin, Cancelo, Dier
      Salah, Son, KDB, Bruno
      Bamford, Wilson, Watkins

      Forster, Targett, Riedewald, Douglas
      Bank 0.6m, 2FTs, no WC

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I’m thinking about bringing in bellerin. Not playing a chip for 18 and arsenal look a little tighter and he offers a threat of some sort?

        1. StayoutheSpiceZone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          It’s him or PVA

    9. yanky
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      REPOST: WC team, thoughts? FH18, BB19– 0.0 in bank.

      Fabianski Johnstone
      Dias Cancelo TAA Justin Coufal
      Salah Son/Mane** Bruno Soucek Raphinha
      Bamford Rodrigo Wood/Adams**

      1) start with mane
      2) start with son ans transfer to mane for dgw19

      a) Woods
      b) Adams

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        2b

      2. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        2A

    10. Dog and Fox
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Burnely plays Fulham and Sheffield at home for the next to. Westwood maybe?

      1. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Wood?

      2. Third Eye Vision
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        That’s a transfer made in hope if ever I saw one.

    11. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Martinez
      Robbo Dias Cancelo
      (S)alah KDB Bruno Grealish Raphinha
      DCL Bamford

      (Steer Brewster Kilman Mitchell)
      0.6m & 1 FT

      A) KDB ➡️ Son
      B) KDB ➡️ Mane
      C) KDB & Brewster ➡️ Kane & Soucek -4
      D) Save FT and do B for free next week

      Any other ideas on this lot guys?
      A bit lost this week considering the short turn around.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Last option should say do C for free next week. Sorry!!

        1. KUNingas
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          C next week IMO

      2. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Save the FT

      3. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I’d probably save tbh

      4. cheese XL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Tempted by mane myself but would weaken BB, would have to use Brewster as an enabler

    12. Sloane426
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Last decision on WC
      (A) Kane + Raphinha + Robertson
      (B) Rodrigo + Mane + Cancelo

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        B

    13. Scrumper
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Who to bench?
      A) KWP
      B) Coufal
      C) Watkins
      D) Grealish

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Keep the Villa boys in.

        I’d bench coufal personally mate

      2. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        KWP imo

      3. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        AB

      4. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        B

      5. Amsterhammer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I have the exact same dilemma. Not sure. Thinking to start Coufal and bench KWP due to attacking upside. Really torn though.

        1. acidicleo
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Me too...coin toss..
          Will play the home player...

          1. Amsterhammer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Deal!

    14. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Anyone with any views on whether stones starts tonight?

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        If he doesn't then he probably won't come on so just have a good first bencher to replace him.

    15. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Captain

      A. Salah
      B. Son
      C. Bruno
      D. Kdb

      Very worried about rotation

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Im going A

      2. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        A C D B in that order

      3. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Salah

    16. HellasLEAF
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Start 2 of:

      Stones
      Dallas
      Wilson
      Justin

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        AD

    17. KUNingas
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      1FT and 0.3 ITB. G2G, just let Dallas to come in if Matip is out?

      Martinez
      Chilwell, Matip*, Taylor
      Salah, KDB, Bruno, Son, Grealish
      Bamford, Adams

      Forster, Dallas, Coufal, Brewster

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Yes

      2. -GK22-
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Only just brought matip in! Worth transferring him out for a hit?

        I have £2.1m itb so could get a decent defender up to £7.5m

        Already have Zouma and Taylor and some other cheap dross at the back

        1. KUNingas
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah same.. Keeping for now, let's see how bad injury it really is.

      3. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Yes. Just let Dallas come in this gw. Matip to Dias would be the other option

    18. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Is Rodrigo nailed? Could Pablo Hernandez pose a threat to some of his minutes?

      1. KUNingas
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I think Pablo will get some minutes, but Rodrigo will get more

        1. Bad Kompany
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Do you think Hernandez will start some or more just come in as a sub. I’m hoping for Rodrigo to start both games in 19

      2. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Reasonably nailed. He’s all I can afford for my bench boost so not expecting much

        1. Bad Kompany
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers! Im just hoping he’ll start both in 19. Do you think this is likely?

          Also do you know what has happened to Pablo Hernandez? He was great last year. Is it just age?

    19. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Which one do I bench:

      A) Holding vs BRI
      B) Coufal vs SOU
      C) Ampadu vs BUR

      1. KUNingas
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        C

      2. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        C

    20. -GK22-
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Only just brought matip in! Worth transferring him out for a hit?

      I have £2.1m itb so could get a decent defender up to £7.5m

      Already have Zouma and Taylor and some other cheap dross at the back

      1. KUNingas
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Do it next week for free

    21. vincentwsho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      After the Soucek goal (again), would you start him over any of these defenders in the coming week?

      A) Dallas (wba)
      B) Dias (eve)
      C) Cresswell (sou)
      D) Chilwell (AST)
      E) Soucek (sou) as first sub

      1. Eleven Hag
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        No

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        D - can’t see him starting today

    22. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Who would you sell for Robbo?

      A) Taylor
      B) Dallas
      C) Coufal

    23. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Pick one:
      1. KdB to Son
      2. KdB to Mane
      3. McCarthy to Fabianski

      1. Eleven Hag
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        2 easy

        1. WE GO FOR IT
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers! 🙂

      2. yanky
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        1) go son then switch son to mane in gw19

        1. WE GO FOR IT
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          I am thinking of this. But I need the transfer in 19 to get a Chelsea defender perhaps. And Spurs don't fill me with confidence. Have Kane and feel it might be enough except for the Leeds game.

    24. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Is double game week 19 a bit of a trap?

      With fixtures and rotation risk to compound it.

      1. KUNingas
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Always the case in DGW..

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          I'd say both Leicester and Southampton have tough games and unless it's a goal fest with Liverpool v United then it could be low returns over both games combined.

          West Ham and Man Utd offer the best prospects.

      2. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Only really Chelsea, West Ham and maybe Leeds along with Liverpool and Man United that offer promise.

        1. George Agdgdgwngo
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          That’s quite a few clubs then.

          It’s not a trap, it’s an opportunity to use and get bench boost out of the way. After that I can get back to fodder and concentrate my funds into my main team

          1. AC/DC AFC
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            It's a few clubs but most have a difficult game.

            I'd say West Ham have the best fixtures... But which player will shine over 2 games?

            The Bruno show on the road too with Man Utd?

            1. George Agdgdgwngo
              • 14 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              West Ham and Leeds for me

              Soucek Coufal Dallas and bam bam

    25. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Great article Pranil. Love how you ended it. Excellent writing.

    26. Chandler Bing
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      When will we know about the next BGWs? I'm wondering if 18 is the GW I should be FHing in. I have 0 City and only 6 players in my current team.

    27. Atimis
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Took -4, have 1.2ITB, GTG?

      Martinez
      Robo/Cancelo/Dallas
      Salah(c)/Bruno/Son/Grealish
      Vardy/Adams/Bamford

      Martin/Coufal/Stephens/Mitchell

    28. Koroko990
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Bench one

      Dallas
      Soucek
      Justin
      Kwp

      1. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        KWP