Pro Pundits

Three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser on City, captaincy and the Blanks and Doubles

The reigning FPL champion of India, Lateriser, shares his thoughts ahead of the Gameweek 16 deadline.


Things are moving incredibly fast in the Fantasy Premier League world and it’s important to stay on top of things and react. Traditionally, this is the period where the engaged FPL managers make ground on the casuals (who are getting not so casual, year on year).

For your information, I am writing this article on the morning after Saturday’s games so the piece will not contain relevant information from Sunday’s matches. Due to the current fifth-gear nature of FPL, this will be a freestyle ramble of all things I want to address.

First up, we need to talk about Manchester City. They are one of the prime culprits for my poor start to the season. In my Gameweek 3 Wildcard, I got in a triple City midfield and have had two City attackers for the most part of the season.

That explains my rank (1.7 million at the time of writing, which is a lot better than the 3.1 million it was in Gameweek 12). It has taken me so long to readjust my thinking in this case and I have definitely failed to adapt. Their fixtures from Gameweek 10 to 15 seduced me like prime Demi Moore (Burnley, Fulham, West Brom an Newcastle at home) and being a fixtures guy all my life, I jumped in.

I mean, we’re talking about Pep Guardiola and the most attacking team in the country for the past three years. But one of the signs of a good FPL manager is to adapt. I didn’t and my rank shows that. After watching Manchester City play Newcastle United last night, I was convinced that the play with the Citizens is their defence not their attack. I know I’m stating the obvious but we have three viable defender options from Guardiola’s side (I own two of them), all three of whom are under £6.0m.

For what they offer for their price, I personally think that taking the odd rest/rotation from them is fine because of the significant value they offer. City are playing a different brand of football (all audition games for the Champions League knockout stages) and we need to re-align our thinking with their attack.

One manager who did adapt is my pod-partner and fellow Pro Pundit, Zophar. He’s been sitting on double City defence since his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and reaping the rewards. That move reeks of low-key shrewdness that can go a long way in having a good season. He was sitting at 970k on his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and is currently at 119k.

What about Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m), though? Well, if we’re talking about the game yesterday, except for that one-on-one chance, he didn’t do much else.

Manchester City are eighth amongst all teams filtered by shots in the box over the last four matches. Yes, De Bruyne is shooting a lot and is playing further up the field, but I get the feeling that while he’s a clean striker of the ball, he takes a fair amount of time to get his shot off. As a result, a large chunk of his efforts just seem to get blocked.

Here’s some more data for you. These are the average expected per goals 90 minutes (xG/90) figures for Manchester City this year and the past three years:

SeasonxG/90
2020/211.6
2019/202.5
2018/192.2
2017/182.1

It just seems like us holding De Bruyne at the moment is for three reasons: ability, history and fear. Yes, he may explode and get a game with a penalty, an assist and a goal. But the more you actually watch Manchester City, the further away such a haul seems given that Pep Guardiola is channelling his inner Louis van Gaal these days.

I myself haven’t made the decision whether I’m holding or selling him but I will need to before Gameweek 16. To fund Harry Kane (£11.0m) into my team, I either need to downgrade Jack Grealish (£7.8m) to Raphinha (£5.4m) or move De Bruyne to Son Heung-min (£9.7M). It’s fair to say that I’ll be scouting some players tonight and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) is also someone I am monitoring closely.

A lot of you will be on a Wildcard while reading this article and I’d like to reiterate and say that don’t have a single-minded, tunnel-vision focus on just the Blank and Double Gameweeks. Every Gameweek counts and focusing on just Gameweek 18 and 19 isn’t going to help you. I urge again to look at the fixtures for players you are bringing in on your Wildcard before Gameweek 18 and after Gameweek 19.

At the moment, I’m looking at going chipless in Gameweek 18 and maybe using the Triple Captain chip in Gameweek 19. It is with this thought that I recruited both the Manchester City centre-backs before Gameweek 15 so as to play them in Gameweeks 18 and 19, and I particularly like their fixtures from Gameweek 20-22.

I’ll briefly talk about captaincy in Gameweeks 16 and 17. Scanning through the fixtures, Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) and the Spurs attacking duo stand out as captaincy options. The game against the Cottagers seems like a more Kane than Son game as I expect Fulham to sit deep, which means more chances closer to the box for the England international.

That said, Fulham are on a bit of a resurgence and are in the best five teams for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last four matches. Spurs, on the other hand, are second only to West Brom for expected goals (xG), but we’ve seen that this does not seem to matter with them too much because if they score, it is very highly likely that their premium FPL duo will be involved.

I just happen to trust Salah and Liverpool a lot more than Spurs at the moment, which is why Salah will likely have my armband in Gameweek 16. Unlike Fulham, Newcastle are in the worst five defences in the league for expected goals conceded in the last five matches.

Gameweek 17, though, is where I’m looking to captain a Spurs attacker. A match against Leeds United should be considered as a prime fixture for captaincy and on paper, this just looks like a Son game to me, given the space Leeds United offer their opposition. The one good thing about this game is that we know that Bielsa is stubborn about his style of play and we can rely on him to offer the opposition tonnes of space to run behind. This captaincy call in Gameweek 18 might be what influences my transfer decision later tonight, depending on how the games pan out.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading what is possibly my last article for the calendar year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is a much better year for all of us.

As a side note, I would like to thank Fantasy Football Scout for the opportunity to write for them and all of you for reading my articles, supporting me and always providing me with valuable feedback.

Given the year that we’ve had, I’d just like to add a small note on mental health. I haven’t had a good season from an FPL point of view (so far) but I’m slowly beginning to climb the table. That hasn’t affected my enjoyment of the game at all.

Firstly, those of you that are struggling should remember that at the end of the day, this is just a game and that is exactly how you should treat it. If you ask me personally, I’m really enjoying this challenge of a bad start and am simply focusing on making good decisions week on week.

One of the best things about this game is that it enables you to talk to likeminded strangers from all over the world and develop new friendships. That is the essence of the FPL community. That is the primary. The rank is secondary. A lot of you ask me about my rank goal and I personally feel it is too early to think about that. FPL is about assimilating information between Gameweeks and then making decisions. Focus on that and make good decisions and leave the rest to chance because the rest isn’t in your control.

Secondly, the ‘perceived’ bad luck appears greater than it is because of the slow-drip of games that we are witnessing. So if you do end up watching a lot of matches, you do end up seeing a lot of chances missed, which just leads to a greater tilt. Just know that on an average, it takes four to five chances for a player to score a goal and these single incidents become magnified in your head because in most cases, you are watching one game at a time. Expectation management during FPL is a thing so that you don’t drive yourself crazy.

 I repeat, it’s just a game.


What is FPL Upside Chasing and how can I implement it in 2020/21?
1,821 Comments Post a Comment
  1. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    What should I do here guys?

    Mccarthy (Nyland)
    Chilwell, Coufal, KWP, Justin (Mitchell)
    Salah, KDB, Bruno, Grealish (Stephens)
    DCL, Bamford, Wilson

    1FT £1.5m ITB

    KDB + Wilson ---> Son + Wilson (-4) ??

    Please help

    1. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      You want to take a hit to transfer Wilson to himself?? 😀

      1. tabby98
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Sorry I meant Vardy Lol

    2. tabby98
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      KDB + Wilson ---> Son + Vardy***

      1. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        In all seriousness, I would. Perhaps over 2GW in case Vardy gets rested?

        1. tabby98
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          So KDB out for Son this Gw and vardy in next week?

    3. trinzoo
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I would save and reassess next GW.

      1. tabby98
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Hmmm I was thinking this but the fixtures are tempting me to take a hit

    4. Raybigblue
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Had he same problem went dcl firmino this week wilson and KDB to Martial and Son

  2. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Play Wilson OR PVA??

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Wilson.

  3. trinzoo
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Would you start (Matip stays in my team):

    A) Coufal (sou)
    B) Holding (bha)

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

    3. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  4. juanmata8
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Mccarthy
    Dias Robertson Dallas Dias
    KDB Bruno Salah(c) Grealish
    Bamford Adams

    Steer DCL KWP Alzate

    1 FT 0.5 itb

    a) Save FT
    b) Grealish + DCL > Son + Rodrigo/Welbeck (-4)
    c) Grealish + DCL > Vardy + Soucek
    d) Grealish + DCL > Martial + Neto

    TIA!

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. rowdog24
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Double Dias

      1. juanmata8
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Taylor

    3. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Dias x2 - noice!

      A

    4. rowdog24
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Double D, da ba dye, da ba dee da ba dye

  5. drughi
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Did forster >Johnstone in prep for gw 19bb, anything worth a hit here ? bench correct ?

    Mccarthy
    Ayling Robertson Dier
    Salah(C) Bruno Son Grealish
    Adams Vardy Bamford

    johnstone soucek coufal douglas.

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Why on earth would you think anything worth a hit there?

      1. drughi
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        grealish>rafinha or douglas>playing dgw defender

    2. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No hits needed, bench order good

  6. NotsoSpursy
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    On a free and will play chip in the blank.

    A) KDB -> Mane
    B) KDB -> Son
    C) Save

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

    3. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A. I did that move. Spurs just too defensive even with the next 2 fixtures.

    4. NotsoSpursy
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      ok thanks all !

    5. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

  7. The Duke
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    What do you reckon?

    a. Keep Wilson
    b. Wilson > Bamford
    c. Wilson > Watkins

    Cheers.

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B in a heartbeat.

    3. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

    4. The Duke
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers all.
      Tx done

  8. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    McCarthy.
    Robbo, Stones, Dallas, Coufal.
    Salah, Son, KDB, Fernandes.
    Bamford, DCL.
    Forster, Lookman, Brewster, Ferguson.
    1ft, 0.6m ITB. FH 18, TC 19- Have 8 DGW'rs atm and hoping for 9/10.
    Stones, KDB + Son are my single weekers in 19 for now..

    KDB-> Mane or save the FT?

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      KDB > Mane looks good

  9. wattalowz
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Bench 1

    A) Grealish
    B) Soucek
    C) Watkins
    D) DCL

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      D

  10. TheDragon
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    What to do? Will FH GW18.

    Martinez
    Robertson, KWP, Dallas
    Salah, KDB, Fernandes, Grealish
    DCL, Bamford, Adams
    Johnstone | Bissouma, Lamptey, Mitchell

    A) KDB -> Son (Lamptey -> Coufal/ Taylor next week)
    B) Lamptey -> Coufal / Taylor
    C) A & B for a -4

    1. umerlfc
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  11. sminkypinky
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Any info on whether Vardy will start? Looking to bring him in... for a hit no less.

    1. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      owner here and I think he is benched today, bring him in for newcastle

      1. sminkypinky
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers

  12. Sharkytect
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    It IS just a game.

    Good stuff lateriser

  13. BENOIT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Talk of Chelsea changing formation...how else have they set up this year?

  14. umerlfc
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Start one:

    A) Creswell - SOU(A)
    B) Coufal - SOU(A)
    C) Dallas - WBA(A)

    Have WHU defensive double up for BB19

  15. Old Gregg
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Mendy
    Robbo-Konza-Stones-Justin
    Salah-Bruno-Son-Grealish
    Bam-Adams

    Wilson-Burke-Mitchell

    Any hits required?
    Right bench order?. Wilson > Konza maybe?

  16. Pitch Perfect
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Chance of a Chelsea clean sheet v Villa?

    1. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      dont see it

    2. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Slim

    3. Marty McFly
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      38%

      1. Pitch Perfect
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I appreciate your precision.

  17. stu92
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Martinez - Forster
    Robbo - Zouma - Targett - Coufal - Kilman

    1. Who should I be looking at replacing Forster and Kilman with for BB GW19? Current thinking is Meslier and Bednarek.

    2. Coming out on GW20, I want to get Cancelo or Dias. Which teams have the best post-19 fixtures defensively, as I’d need to downgrade 2 from Targett, Coufal and Bednarek to afford one. Alternatively I could go straight to Stones, but feel that’s a risk.

    1. Pitch Perfect
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      For Kilman money you're only looking at Alioski, Taylor or Balbuena I'm guessing. Depends what's in the bank.

      1. stu92
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        1.4ITB, so can go to a 5.5 defender. Cancelo and Dias are just out of reach.

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      1. Good moves.
      2. Not sure - check ticker.

    3. iveseenitall
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Why not set up with a man city defender in gw19, they could quite easily get more points than a southampton defender that week. Then your also ready to go the week after.

      1. stu92
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I could go to Stones, but how long will he keep his place? If I had planned things a bit better I would’ve gone to Balbuena instead of Coufal a few weeks ago and that would’ve given me the extra cash needed. I may still do that for a hit in 19, and then am good to go in 20 like you said.

  18. LucasD
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Bottomed.

    Johnstone or Meslier
    Taylor / Coufal / Dallas
    Salah(TC) / Bruno / Son / KDB / Soucek
    Kane / Bamford

    Martinez / Brewster / Kilman / Dunne

    How's this looking for a TC team for DGW19?

    1 - 10?

  19. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Can't believe what I did! Last night was set on Mahrez+Wilson->Son+Wood(-4), had exact funds, fell asleep, prices changed and now I'm stuck with Mahrez one more week haha. Bought Wood tho

    1. LucasD
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Same thing happened to me. Had exact funds to do DCL to Kane, and I fell asleep. Luckily, DCL didn't go up

      1. Pitch Perfect
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Ahhh the old Freddie Kruger conundrum: afraid of falling asleep due to price rises! I also held off a hit hoping DCL wouldn't drop till today.

  20. pratul09
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    2FT 0.2ITB

    McCarthy
    Dier, Dias, Zouma
    Son, Salah, Grealish, Rashford
    Bamford, DCL, Kane

    Subs: Martinez, Bissouma, Mitchell, Dunne

    Need long term suggestions guys!!

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I'd be looking at upgrading that bench for GW19 dependent on your strategy for 18/19

      1. pratul09
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Yeahh! I’ve been thinking of upgrading this shitty bench. Would probably have to downgrade DCL for that i guess?!

  21. Van der Faart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Taken an 8 point hit. Captaining Kane over Salah and Bruno. Have to try and make up some of the 370k I've dropped in the last 2 weeks.

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Do you believe that Kane will score more than Salah and Bruno?

      1. Van der Faart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I believe he has the capability yes

        1. Flair
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Good luck. I'm going for Salah but Fulham's defense still looks targetable, looking at xGA over the past few weeks.

          1. Van der Faart
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Thanks. Not been great to own over the last couple of weeks but need to try and make up ground

        2. Make United Great Again
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Mourinho has to release the shackles against Fulham surely!

      2. No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        He could. Problem is he is just a horrible watch as captain, you are waiting for that one opportunity, and when he misses it you feel like he might not get another.

        1. Flair
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Only team in the forseeable future I can see myself captaining Kane against is Leeds in GW17. Though he's returned all three times I captained him for a total of 62 points so it's not all bad!

    2. Azathoth
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      May the Force be with you.

  22. No Professionals
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Would appreciate some feedback

    Johnstone
    Dias Dallas Taylor
    Salah KDB Fernandes Soucek
    Kane DCL Bamford

    Steer Coufal Alzate Mitchell
    1ft 0.8m

    A) KDB to mane
    B) KDB and Mitchell to pulisic and robertson

    Mane feels like a luxury for someone I’d never captain. But he is a nice place holder for another premium. B) starts to build bench boost, but mids below 9.5m are completely uninspiring?

  23. Azathoth
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Play Martinez or Meslier?

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Meslier

    2. klopp2567
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Meslier

  24. klopp2567
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Tammy along with Vardy and Bamford for few Gws? makes sense?

    1. jomikijiq
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      no, high chance Giroud plays today imo

  25. _Ninja_
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who scores more this week?

    A KDB
    B Kane (-4)
    C Vardy (-4)

  26. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Nice that DCL didn’t drop last night 🙂

  27. Totally J
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    RMWCT please

    McCarthy Johnstone
    Robbo coufal balbuena Taylor lowton
    Salah fernandes son soucek raphina
    Bamford Kane rodrigo

    Kane and son to rashford and vardy ahead of GW19

  28. tibollom
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    anyone going with son and kane? want to do grealish and lamptey to son and taylor for a hit and already have kane; bruno and salah...

    1. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Aye

  29. Fantasyfootballryan
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC team? Any changes needed? 0 ITB

    McCarthy
    Bellerin, Taylor, Chilwell
    Fernandes, Salah, Son, Soucek
    Kane, Watkins, Bamford

    Steer, Justin, Cancelo, Saka

  30. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Martinez, Forster
    Robbo, James,Dallas
    Burno , Salah , Mahrez,Grealish
    Kane , Bamford, Adams
    (Coufal , Bissouma ,Dunne)
    any other transfer for -4 and what about Bench ?