Pro Pundits

Three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser on City, captaincy and the Blanks and Doubles

The reigning FPL champion of India, Lateriser, shares his thoughts ahead of the Gameweek 16 deadline.


Things are moving incredibly fast in the Fantasy Premier League world and it’s important to stay on top of things and react. Traditionally, this is the period where the engaged FPL managers make ground on the casuals (who are getting not so casual, year on year).

For your information, I am writing this article on the morning after Saturday’s games so the piece will not contain relevant information from Sunday’s matches. Due to the current fifth-gear nature of FPL, this will be a freestyle ramble of all things I want to address.

First up, we need to talk about Manchester City. They are one of the prime culprits for my poor start to the season. In my Gameweek 3 Wildcard, I got in a triple City midfield and have had two City attackers for the most part of the season.

That explains my rank (1.7 million at the time of writing, which is a lot better than the 3.1 million it was in Gameweek 12). It has taken me so long to readjust my thinking in this case and I have definitely failed to adapt. Their fixtures from Gameweek 10 to 15 seduced me like prime Demi Moore (Burnley, Fulham, West Brom an Newcastle at home) and being a fixtures guy all my life, I jumped in.

I mean, we’re talking about Pep Guardiola and the most attacking team in the country for the past three years. But one of the signs of a good FPL manager is to adapt. I didn’t and my rank shows that. After watching Manchester City play Newcastle United last night, I was convinced that the play with the Citizens is their defence not their attack. I know I’m stating the obvious but we have three viable defender options from Guardiola’s side (I own two of them), all three of whom are under £6.0m.

For what they offer for their price, I personally think that taking the odd rest/rotation from them is fine because of the significant value they offer. City are playing a different brand of football (all audition games for the Champions League knockout stages) and we need to re-align our thinking with their attack.

One manager who did adapt is my pod-partner and fellow Pro Pundit, Zophar. He’s been sitting on double City defence since his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and reaping the rewards. That move reeks of low-key shrewdness that can go a long way in having a good season. He was sitting at 970k on his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and is currently at 119k.

What about Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m), though? Well, if we’re talking about the game yesterday, except for that one-on-one chance, he didn’t do much else.

Manchester City are eighth amongst all teams filtered by shots in the box over the last four matches. Yes, De Bruyne is shooting a lot and is playing further up the field, but I get the feeling that while he’s a clean striker of the ball, he takes a fair amount of time to get his shot off. As a result, a large chunk of his efforts just seem to get blocked.

Here’s some more data for you. These are the average expected per goals 90 minutes (xG/90) figures for Manchester City this year and the past three years:

SeasonxG/90
2020/211.6
2019/202.5
2018/192.2
2017/182.1

It just seems like us holding De Bruyne at the moment is for three reasons: ability, history and fear. Yes, he may explode and get a game with a penalty, an assist and a goal. But the more you actually watch Manchester City, the further away such a haul seems given that Pep Guardiola is channelling his inner Louis van Gaal these days.

I myself haven’t made the decision whether I’m holding or selling him but I will need to before Gameweek 16. To fund Harry Kane (£11.0m) into my team, I either need to downgrade Jack Grealish (£7.8m) to Raphinha (£5.4m) or move De Bruyne to Son Heung-min (£9.7M). It’s fair to say that I’ll be scouting some players tonight and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) is also someone I am monitoring closely.

A lot of you will be on a Wildcard while reading this article and I’d like to reiterate and say that don’t have a single-minded, tunnel-vision focus on just the Blank and Double Gameweeks. Every Gameweek counts and focusing on just Gameweek 18 and 19 isn’t going to help you. I urge again to look at the fixtures for players you are bringing in on your Wildcard before Gameweek 18 and after Gameweek 19.

At the moment, I’m looking at going chipless in Gameweek 18 and maybe using the Triple Captain chip in Gameweek 19. It is with this thought that I recruited both the Manchester City centre-backs before Gameweek 15 so as to play them in Gameweeks 18 and 19, and I particularly like their fixtures from Gameweek 20-22.

I’ll briefly talk about captaincy in Gameweeks 16 and 17. Scanning through the fixtures, Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) and the Spurs attacking duo stand out as captaincy options. The game against the Cottagers seems like a more Kane than Son game as I expect Fulham to sit deep, which means more chances closer to the box for the England international.

That said, Fulham are on a bit of a resurgence and are in the best five teams for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last four matches. Spurs, on the other hand, are second only to West Brom for expected goals (xG), but we’ve seen that this does not seem to matter with them too much because if they score, it is very highly likely that their premium FPL duo will be involved.

I just happen to trust Salah and Liverpool a lot more than Spurs at the moment, which is why Salah will likely have my armband in Gameweek 16. Unlike Fulham, Newcastle are in the worst five defences in the league for expected goals conceded in the last five matches.

Gameweek 17, though, is where I’m looking to captain a Spurs attacker. A match against Leeds United should be considered as a prime fixture for captaincy and on paper, this just looks like a Son game to me, given the space Leeds United offer their opposition. The one good thing about this game is that we know that Bielsa is stubborn about his style of play and we can rely on him to offer the opposition tonnes of space to run behind. This captaincy call in Gameweek 18 might be what influences my transfer decision later tonight, depending on how the games pan out.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading what is possibly my last article for the calendar year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is a much better year for all of us.

As a side note, I would like to thank Fantasy Football Scout for the opportunity to write for them and all of you for reading my articles, supporting me and always providing me with valuable feedback.

Given the year that we’ve had, I’d just like to add a small note on mental health. I haven’t had a good season from an FPL point of view (so far) but I’m slowly beginning to climb the table. That hasn’t affected my enjoyment of the game at all.

Firstly, those of you that are struggling should remember that at the end of the day, this is just a game and that is exactly how you should treat it. If you ask me personally, I’m really enjoying this challenge of a bad start and am simply focusing on making good decisions week on week.

One of the best things about this game is that it enables you to talk to likeminded strangers from all over the world and develop new friendships. That is the essence of the FPL community. That is the primary. The rank is secondary. A lot of you ask me about my rank goal and I personally feel it is too early to think about that. FPL is about assimilating information between Gameweeks and then making decisions. Focus on that and make good decisions and leave the rest to chance because the rest isn’t in your control.

Secondly, the ‘perceived’ bad luck appears greater than it is because of the slow-drip of games that we are witnessing. So if you do end up watching a lot of matches, you do end up seeing a lot of chances missed, which just leads to a greater tilt. Just know that on an average, it takes four to five chances for a player to score a goal and these single incidents become magnified in your head because in most cases, you are watching one game at a time. Expectation management during FPL is a thing so that you don’t drive yourself crazy.

 I repeat, it’s just a game.


What is FPL Upside Chasing and how can I implement it in 2020/21?
1,821 Comments Post a Comment
  1. KGFC
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Best defender to replace Matip:

    1. Lowton
    2. C Taylor
    3. Holding (allows me another player for BGW)

    1. Maddamotha
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Taylor

    2. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      2

    3. Fantasydreamer
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Holding

    4. King Kohli
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      2

    5. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      2

    6. KGFC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      TA!

  2. King Kohli
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who scores more from gw 17 till gw 19?

    A. Cancelo (che, CRY)
    B. T. Silva (MCI, ful, lei)

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Thiago probably also 2 games #rotation

      1. King Kohli
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Think he misses out today and plays the next three.
        Considered two for Cancelo as I will anyway get him on my FH for gw 18.

    2. KGFC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A, can see him getting an attacking return

  3. Fantasydreamer
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Martinelli or saka for next 3?

    1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lol look below.
      Prefer Martinelli if he gets minutes

    2. KGFC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Martinelli risky but more upside

      Saka more assured starter but you can best hope for an odd assist

    3. Fantasydreamer
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers both - my exact thoughts - I may try and run GW18 with 8/9 men and no free hit so think saka may be better choice for then.

  4. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    5th mid instead of Harrison
    Need some GW18 players
    Saka, Martinelli?

  5. Heiro
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Hi all,

    Mitchel -> Alioski or Ailing?

    Got 4.5m max

    1. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ayling

  6. n-doggg
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Any changes to this WC team? Vardy and rashford in for Kane and son for DGW potentially

    Johnstone, McCarthy
    TAA, Taylor, Justin, kwp, alioski
    Salah, son, Bruno, raphinia, soucek
    Kane, adams, bamford

    1. Footieboot
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      WHU defence needed for sure.

    2. Ruffio
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Alioski place at risk when cbs come back for Leeds as Dallas back to lb and ayling rb

  7. Ruffio
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    How’s this for Wc team?

    Areola. Johnstone

    Kwp. Trent. Coufal. Justin. Dallas

    Raphinha. Salah. Bruno. Soucek. Lookman

    Bamford. Vardy. Kane

    Any hell appreciated.

    1. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      The midfield after would worry me albeit 2 free transfers after would improve it downgrading the attack

      1. Ruffio
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers. Could swap Kane and lookman for Adams and Son?

    2. JabariParkersEyelid
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I think you have too much money in your attack and that will be a problem for later moves.

      Only need 1 of Vardy/Kane, redistribute more funds into your midfield.

  8. Footieboot
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    WC Team - FH18 BB19

    McCarthy - Johnstone
    Taylor -Stones - Robbo - Coufal - Struijk
    Bruno - Salah - Son - Raphinha - Soucek
    Kane - Bamford - Adams

    Would it be worth it dropping Stones for a DGW Defender? Also, Robbo + Struijk or Matip + James. Unsure of Matip's fitness though.

    1. Ruffio
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Struijk by no means nailed

  9. Jones Kusi
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    RMWCT

    McCarthy Johnstone
    Robbo Stones Dallas Justin Taylor
    Salah Bruno Rashford Soucek Rapinha
    Firminho Adams Bamford.

    Plan is to BB gw19 and firminho is a 1 gw punt.

    1. D.Glynn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Firmino a place gone for Vardy? Very similar to mine

      1. Jones Kusi
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I will get Vardy gw17

  10. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Can’t believe I have this guy but: chances of Mendy playing (city)?

    1. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Seems like Pep only giving him the odd game here and there. Would expect him to come in for one of the games soon though but certainly not nailed

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks

  11. fish&chips
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Sorry bottomed

    How important do we think the FH chip will be for GW29? My thoughts are that we would expect a lot of big teams to blank due to FA Cup QF commitments so if you don't have it you'll either end up:

    - bringing in poor players to field a team
    - accepting a poor score through not being able to put a full team out.

    For this reason I'm wondering if it might be better for me to WC in GW19 (was originally going to FH), and try and build to a decent BB in GW26 from there. Thoughts?

  12. Concrete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Those BB in 19, how many DGWers will you have

    Currently looking to have 12

    1. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      13-14

    2. wilkinson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      14

    3. Kip
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I’m looking at 14 or 15

    4. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Robbo Dallas Coufal James
      Salah Burno Adams Bamford
      That's what i have now planning to get
      Raphinha Vardy Maddison Soucek and Fabianski

    5. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers all

  13. Drexl Spivey
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Is Holgate nailed?

  14. Puntillimon
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Would you do grealish —> raphinha so that you can go KDB to mane next week?

  15. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    KDB & Bamford -> Zaha & Kane for free? FHing 19.

    1. D.Glynn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Do not sell Bamford

    2. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No I don't think so this week, especially with bamford now on pens

    3. Puntillimon
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Keep bambam. Perhaps kdb to son

    4. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Why would you lose Bamford? On pens now also so even better than before

  16. D.Glynn
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    On a Wc. Aguero as 1gw punt to hold Vardy place. Y or N

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Not directly Vardy due to rest?

      1. D.Glynn
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I reckon so that's why I'm thinking of Aguero for 1 gw

  17. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Is it worth -8 to replace Grealish and DCL? Which combo?
    A. Raphinha Vardy
    B. Maddison Martial
    C. Rashford Adams

    1. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No.

  18. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Mahrez worth a punt?

    1. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      good one

    2. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      U know the risk, a 0 or a 10

    3. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      As an owner for the last 3 weeks I'd say no. But he should start although I've been saying that for 2 weeks already

      1. fish&chips
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Also have to consider that city aren't prolific anymore. So it's not like he plays every other game but has the chance to be involved in 3+ goals whenever he plays

        1. OptimusBlack
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Same as u bro am selling after this GW immediately

  19. Gooner Kebab
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Play one
    A) DCL (MCI)
    B) Balbuena (sot)
    C) Neto (mun)

    1. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  20. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Kane or Salah captain?

    1. Puntillimon
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Kane if you have him

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers

    2. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Spurs worst xG in the league over the last four (apart from WBA). Eye test they have been absolutely dreadful. Fulham are resurgent and ranked 5th for xGc over the same period. Therein lies your answer

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers Irbox

    3. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Salah

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks Houldsworth

  21. wolves_simmo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who to captain?

    A) Bruno - WOL
    B) Salah - new

    1. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. Bollard
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      It’s a tough one but Salah for me. Extra couple days rest against depleted side. Can see Bruno doing alright though as Wolves a bit leaky. Toss a coin

    3. Puntillimon
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Salah

    4. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

  22. FPLtfs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    A) Vardy, Raphina, Bowen/JWP, Pope
    B) Rashford, Adams, Maddison, Meslier

  23. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Is Justin a wise pick on a WC? I read posts on here yesterday that Peirera could be back?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Pereira back mid Jan earliest.

    2. Marcin the Pole
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Justin will keep his spot. He's been immense.

    3. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Justin will surely play for the whole of January

    4. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      He's been "back" since week 3

  24. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Bench one of these:

    a. DCL
    b. Cancelo
    c. Dallas

    ???

    1. T88MYE
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I’d go DCL

    2. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      C

    3. joeydordon
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I went dcl same choice

  25. Marcin the Pole
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone else mental enough to go with no Spurs for the next 2? Is it a suicidal idea?

    1. Boss Hogg
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I’ve gone with triple Spurs!

      1. Brimble82
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This.

    2. Kip
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I’m having none for gw16&17. Doesnt bother me. I have good captain options and rather use my FT to get as many DGWers as possible for BB19.Will get some on FH gw18

    3. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      None required this week, will need one next GW against Leeds

      1. Drexl Spivey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Irbox, sorry to but in here, but is Holgate nailed for the foreseeable future?

    4. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Toyed with idea but chickened out and got Kane in and will reassess next week whether to go KDB > Son or Mané

  26. Kip
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    For GW 17 & 19, would you rather have:

    A) Fabianski + Raphinha
    B) Johnstone + Maddison
    C) Johnstone + Mount

    1. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  27. T88MYE
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    I’m a little stuck - is this good for 16?

    McCarthy,
    Dias, Dier, Chillwell, Dallas,
    KDB, Salah(c), Bruno, Son
    Bamford, Adams

    Steer, Watkins, Justin, Stephens

    1m ITB & 1FT.

    - Do I roll and use 2 next week in prep for 18/19.
    - Make a move now? What would we suggest. Chillwell > Creswell/Coufal?

  28. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    WC locked. Going Mane(C) over Salah!

    1. D.Glynn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No Salah or double up?

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Double up

    2. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      What’s the rationale there mate? Pure punt? Salah’s attacking stats plus pens make him the obvious choice imo

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Mane was central to everything yesterday! I might switch to Salah if I want to play safe!

  29. Tshelby
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Burn a ft??
    How to upgrade this team?

    2FT 0.0 ITB

    Martinez
    Chilwell, KWP, Dias, Coufal, Kilman
    Grealish, Bruno, KdB, Salah, Soucek
    Bamford, DCL, Adams

  30. Khalico
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who to captain for this week and why?
    Son, KDB, Grealish, Salah, Bruno
    DCL and Bamford

    Im looking between Bruno/Son, maybe Salah.