Pro Pundits

Three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser on City, captaincy and the Blanks and Doubles

The reigning FPL champion of India, Lateriser, shares his thoughts ahead of the Gameweek 16 deadline.


Things are moving incredibly fast in the Fantasy Premier League world and it’s important to stay on top of things and react. Traditionally, this is the period where the engaged FPL managers make ground on the casuals (who are getting not so casual, year on year).

For your information, I am writing this article on the morning after Saturday’s games so the piece will not contain relevant information from Sunday’s matches. Due to the current fifth-gear nature of FPL, this will be a freestyle ramble of all things I want to address.

First up, we need to talk about Manchester City. They are one of the prime culprits for my poor start to the season. In my Gameweek 3 Wildcard, I got in a triple City midfield and have had two City attackers for the most part of the season.

That explains my rank (1.7 million at the time of writing, which is a lot better than the 3.1 million it was in Gameweek 12). It has taken me so long to readjust my thinking in this case and I have definitely failed to adapt. Their fixtures from Gameweek 10 to 15 seduced me like prime Demi Moore (Burnley, Fulham, West Brom an Newcastle at home) and being a fixtures guy all my life, I jumped in.

I mean, we’re talking about Pep Guardiola and the most attacking team in the country for the past three years. But one of the signs of a good FPL manager is to adapt. I didn’t and my rank shows that. After watching Manchester City play Newcastle United last night, I was convinced that the play with the Citizens is their defence not their attack. I know I’m stating the obvious but we have three viable defender options from Guardiola’s side (I own two of them), all three of whom are under £6.0m.

For what they offer for their price, I personally think that taking the odd rest/rotation from them is fine because of the significant value they offer. City are playing a different brand of football (all audition games for the Champions League knockout stages) and we need to re-align our thinking with their attack.

One manager who did adapt is my pod-partner and fellow Pro Pundit, Zophar. He’s been sitting on double City defence since his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and reaping the rewards. That move reeks of low-key shrewdness that can go a long way in having a good season. He was sitting at 970k on his Gameweek 9 Wildcard and is currently at 119k.

What about Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m), though? Well, if we’re talking about the game yesterday, except for that one-on-one chance, he didn’t do much else.

Manchester City are eighth amongst all teams filtered by shots in the box over the last four matches. Yes, De Bruyne is shooting a lot and is playing further up the field, but I get the feeling that while he’s a clean striker of the ball, he takes a fair amount of time to get his shot off. As a result, a large chunk of his efforts just seem to get blocked.

Here’s some more data for you. These are the average expected per goals 90 minutes (xG/90) figures for Manchester City this year and the past three years:

SeasonxG/90
2020/211.6
2019/202.5
2018/192.2
2017/182.1

It just seems like us holding De Bruyne at the moment is for three reasons: ability, history and fear. Yes, he may explode and get a game with a penalty, an assist and a goal. But the more you actually watch Manchester City, the further away such a haul seems given that Pep Guardiola is channelling his inner Louis van Gaal these days.

I myself haven’t made the decision whether I’m holding or selling him but I will need to before Gameweek 16. To fund Harry Kane (£11.0m) into my team, I either need to downgrade Jack Grealish (£7.8m) to Raphinha (£5.4m) or move De Bruyne to Son Heung-min (£9.7M). It’s fair to say that I’ll be scouting some players tonight and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) is also someone I am monitoring closely.

A lot of you will be on a Wildcard while reading this article and I’d like to reiterate and say that don’t have a single-minded, tunnel-vision focus on just the Blank and Double Gameweeks. Every Gameweek counts and focusing on just Gameweek 18 and 19 isn’t going to help you. I urge again to look at the fixtures for players you are bringing in on your Wildcard before Gameweek 18 and after Gameweek 19.

At the moment, I’m looking at going chipless in Gameweek 18 and maybe using the Triple Captain chip in Gameweek 19. It is with this thought that I recruited both the Manchester City centre-backs before Gameweek 15 so as to play them in Gameweeks 18 and 19, and I particularly like their fixtures from Gameweek 20-22.

I’ll briefly talk about captaincy in Gameweeks 16 and 17. Scanning through the fixtures, Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) and the Spurs attacking duo stand out as captaincy options. The game against the Cottagers seems like a more Kane than Son game as I expect Fulham to sit deep, which means more chances closer to the box for the England international.

That said, Fulham are on a bit of a resurgence and are in the best five teams for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last four matches. Spurs, on the other hand, are second only to West Brom for expected goals (xG), but we’ve seen that this does not seem to matter with them too much because if they score, it is very highly likely that their premium FPL duo will be involved.

I just happen to trust Salah and Liverpool a lot more than Spurs at the moment, which is why Salah will likely have my armband in Gameweek 16. Unlike Fulham, Newcastle are in the worst five defences in the league for expected goals conceded in the last five matches.

Gameweek 17, though, is where I’m looking to captain a Spurs attacker. A match against Leeds United should be considered as a prime fixture for captaincy and on paper, this just looks like a Son game to me, given the space Leeds United offer their opposition. The one good thing about this game is that we know that Bielsa is stubborn about his style of play and we can rely on him to offer the opposition tonnes of space to run behind. This captaincy call in Gameweek 18 might be what influences my transfer decision later tonight, depending on how the games pan out.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading what is possibly my last article for the calendar year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is a much better year for all of us.

As a side note, I would like to thank Fantasy Football Scout for the opportunity to write for them and all of you for reading my articles, supporting me and always providing me with valuable feedback.

Given the year that we’ve had, I’d just like to add a small note on mental health. I haven’t had a good season from an FPL point of view (so far) but I’m slowly beginning to climb the table. That hasn’t affected my enjoyment of the game at all.

Firstly, those of you that are struggling should remember that at the end of the day, this is just a game and that is exactly how you should treat it. If you ask me personally, I’m really enjoying this challenge of a bad start and am simply focusing on making good decisions week on week.

One of the best things about this game is that it enables you to talk to likeminded strangers from all over the world and develop new friendships. That is the essence of the FPL community. That is the primary. The rank is secondary. A lot of you ask me about my rank goal and I personally feel it is too early to think about that. FPL is about assimilating information between Gameweeks and then making decisions. Focus on that and make good decisions and leave the rest to chance because the rest isn’t in your control.

Secondly, the ‘perceived’ bad luck appears greater than it is because of the slow-drip of games that we are witnessing. So if you do end up watching a lot of matches, you do end up seeing a lot of chances missed, which just leads to a greater tilt. Just know that on an average, it takes four to five chances for a player to score a goal and these single incidents become magnified in your head because in most cases, you are watching one game at a time. Expectation management during FPL is a thing so that you don’t drive yourself crazy.

 I repeat, it’s just a game.


What is FPL Upside Chasing and how can I implement it in 2020/21?
1,821 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    On wildcard, for GW16-17+DGW19, which one?

    A. James + Maddison + Martial
    B. Ogbonna + Soucek + Kane

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. DandyDon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Martial is the other one I like the look of for DGW but will probably go Vardy. Not having Kane for next two is a worry though, I'd probably go down the Kane route as you're on a WC and can always switch to Martial or other for DGW.

      1. Winston.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        That’s what I thought...but could it be better not to plan any transfers, as there could be injuries and covid cases.?..besides Martial and Maddison have very good last 4gw stats.

  2. DandyDon
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Had my first great gameweek of the season. 72 points gave me a week score of 51,000. Double leeds defence, KWP, Matip, Bruno, Mane, Bamford suprinsingly all it took. If only i'd left the captancy on Mane from the previous gameweek as KDB failed.
    Sold him for Salah so I can stop hiding behind sofas.

    DCL to Vardy for a -4??
    Surely Vardy starts on the bench with only two days between fixtures so I should just wait a week?

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Hold

    2. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Nice one! I'd wait a week.

      1. DandyDon
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        thanks yea think so.

    3. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Vardy’s form is outstanding.

      One of the few players worth a hit

  3. Concrete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    With DGW 19 in mind

    Lamptey to Dallas
    Grealish to Raphina

    Y or N.

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

  4. james 101
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Bottomed...

    GTG / bench right?

    Martinez
    Robbo Stones Zouma
    Salah Rashford Bruno Soucek Son
    Bambam Vardy

    (Steer Dallas 3.9 4.4)

    (0.5m in the bank but no FTs)

    Thanks!!

    1. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Anyone?

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      That'll do James, that'll do.

      1. james 101
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Ha. Cheers!

    3. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Gtg

      1. james 101
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks!

  5. Tarzan
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Martinez + Zouma -> Robertson +McCarthy?

    FH in Gw18

    Sounds very wrong to remove high scoring players, but i feel Aston Villa have very difficult fixtures and Robbo has high ceiling in DGW

    Too punty?

    1. Tarzan
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      For free.. As i have 2FTs

    2. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Martinez fixtures are bad for a few.

      I think I’ll transfer him out too.

      Though I’m considering Pope

  6. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Would you feel comfortable keeping either DCL or Grealish for DGW or ditch both?
    Grealish is a long term player I think but could always get him back GW20 og 21 and 2 games exciting always so someone like Raphina punt for 1 week...

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Next 3 fixtures alongside the doubles, I’m more inclined to move on and get back

      It’s just the value tied up him in

      1. Concrete
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Grealish that is

    2. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I have kept Grealish and dumped DCL a couple of weeks ago.

    3. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ive just ditched both.

  7. Footieboot
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Is Williams a good shout given Matip's injury?

    1. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Could be incredible value

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      The other one, Phillips is it?, looks a better bet BUT no would avoid both

  8. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    On WC. Who gets the last striker spot? Can bring in Adams or Antonio ahead of DGW19 if I go for Wood but am already planning Kane > Vardy in DGW19. Should I pick Adams to save a transfer or does Wood's next two fixtures make him the better choice?

    A - Adams
    B - Wood

    McCarthy - Johnstone
    Robbo - Justin - Balbuena - Taylor - Dallas
    Salah - Bruno - Son - Soucek - Rafinha
    Kane - Bamford - Wood

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  9. Akshatjazz
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    play McCarthy or Martinez ?

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Mc

      1. Akshatjazz
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        play Kwp or Coufal ?

    2. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Mc

  10. willos_wanderers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Do I play:

    A) Martinez (Che)
    B) Meslier (Wba)

    1) Justin (Cpl)
    2) James (AVL)

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B
      1

    2. Akshatjazz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B & 2

      1. Akshatjazz
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        sry its 1

    3. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A1

  11. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Would be so nice to have Antonio back for dgw but can we trust him with staying fit?

    Che Adams a safer option ?

    1. Akshatjazz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      you can bring Rodrigo from Leeds and then upgrade somewhere else

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers. Have klich already though

    2. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Coin toss mate

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers .

        Might go Adams and soucek and Bowen in midfield.

        Gl

    3. Jet5605
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Not sure Antonio would be risked to play two games three days apart in the DGW

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        True

    4. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Adams probably safer but leave it until the last minute. Antonio could play and build minutes before the double

  12. The Head-Ake
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Why are people going for Cancelo now? His next 2 aren't that great. BB in 18 would get him in and he doesn't have DGW19

    1. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Chasing points?

      1. The Head-Ake
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        As in?

    2. Ron_Swanson
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Because they’ve kept 8 clean sheets in 10. I could easily see them keeping Everton at bay give they’re missing attacking assets and have only averaged one goal per game over last 7 and Chelsea are on poor form. Plus he looks good attacking and Pep said he’s ‘incredible’ in regards to his fitness and how many games he can play.

  13. Harper (No more Penandes)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    No luck with Goalkeepers this season, Not a single cleansheet in 15 gameweeks! Went for Fabianski a few gameweeks ago, should have just got Martinez. I was not expecting 4 CS in 4.

    1. james 101
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Pope?

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Think my keeper kepts 2 cs only so far

  14. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Which one starts this week?

    A - Adams (WHU)
    B - Rafinha (wba)
    C - Justin (cry)

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  15. Vazza
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who would you keep on a WC?

    A. Grealish
    Bought for 7.2m.
    Difficult fixtures now but easier fixtures from GW20.
    One YC away from suspension (until GW21)

    B. DCL
    Bought at 7.0m
    Easier fixtures now but difficult fixtures from GW20
    Two YCs away from suspension (until GW19)

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Saka Punch
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  16. Concrete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    With DGW 19 in mind

    Lamptey to Dallas
    Grealish to Raphina

    Y or N..

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I'd keep grealish one more week

    2. Heiro
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lamptey apparently due back the GW before the DGW but his fixtures aren't great...

      I have him and holding at the moment but might go to Struijk if he's nailed for a while.

    3. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks!

  17. Heiro
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Is anyone due back soon for Leeds at the back?
    Looking at Aiyling but Struijk 0.6 less.

    1. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Llorente

    2. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ayling maybe a better option anyway and worth the extra?

  18. CAP
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    G2g? Banking the FT.

    Martinez
    TAA Taylor KWP
    Salah (C) Grealish KDB Bruno
    DCL Adams Bamford

    Steer, Dallas, Coufal, Bissouma

  19. karsworde
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    RMWCT Please!

    McCarthy | Johnstone
    Robertson | Justin | Dallas | Coufal | C. Taylor
    Salah | Bruno | Son | Soucek | Reed
    Kane | Bamford | Wood

    0.5 ITB

    Will transfer Son out before GW19!

  20. Paul Psychic Octopus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who would you bench (1st sub)?

    A. JWP (WHU)
    B. Watkins (che)
    C. Bamford (wba)

    1. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Definitely not C

    2. Harper (No more Penandes)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  21. pug_chops
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Pick 1 to bench
    A) Zouma (AVL H)
    B) Taylor (SHU H)
    C) Dallas (WBA A)
    D) Grealish (CHE A)
    E) Adams (WHU H)

    1. T88MYE
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I’ve gone D

      1. T88MYE
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Well..I’ve benched Watkins

      2. pug_chops
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Interesting. He seemed an obvious starter but now I'm not so sure

    2. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

      1. pug_chops
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks. I think I might just do that

  22. T88MYE
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Lost on a few pages back.
    I’m a little stuck - is this good for 16?

    McCarthy,
    Dias, Dier, Chillwell, Dallas,
    KDB, Salah(c), Bruno, Son
    Bamford, Adams

    Steer, Watkins, Justin, Stephens

    1m ITB & 1FT.

    - Do I roll and use 2 next week in prep for 18/19.
    - Make a move now & What would we suggest?

  23. Vovhund
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Bottomed:

    Please rate this WC-team with BB GW19 in mind:

    McCarthy-Areola
    TAA-Justin-Dallas-Coufal-Taylor
    Salah-Bruno-Son-Soucek-Raphinha
    Kane-Bamford-Antonio

    Could go Kane to Vardy and Taylor to Reece James GW19.

    Antonio - I know... But I'm betting on him being ready for DGW 19

    1. Vazza
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Antonio is a bold move. He won’t play two 90 games (I hope you realise that)

      1. Vovhund
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        With GW 19 three weeks away he might. Otherwise I would be happy with 120 min combined. If he's not fit at all he could easily be made into Che Adams

  24. karsworde
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Bench two:

    A) Justin (cry)
    B) Coufal (sou)
    C) C.Taylor (SHU)
    D) Soucek (sou)
    E) Dallas (wba)

    Got McCarthy in goal. I've currently got D & E on the bench

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B and A

  25. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    With no chips and just FTs can field 8 in BGW18 and 9 DGW players in 19. Does TC Salah look good for double. Will have the following team:

    Martinez*
    Dallas Coufal Creswell
    Salah Mane Bruno Son* Soucek
    Vardy Bamford

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Or even James over Creswell

  26. Dosh
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Grealish --> Son for a -4?

    1. Saka Punch
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No

  27. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Pick 2 for a WC team
    A) Justin
    B) Dallas
    C) Stones

    1. Vazza
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      C

      1. tabby98
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        and the second?

  28. Vazza
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who’s a better pick

    A. Alioski
    B. Balbuena

    I’m likely to BB in DGW19

    1. Vazza
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Anyone please?

    2. Fozzyb34r
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  29. aardvark22
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Play Raphinha (WBA A) or Soucek (SOU A)?

  30. Drogo
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Ok, think I am finally done.

    WC team

    Johnson - McCarthy
    Zouma - TAA - Dallas - Coufal - Justin
    Mane - Salah - Bruno - Soucek - Raphina
    Wood - Bamford - Adams

    FH on GW 18
    BB on GW 19

    G2G?

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Great