Scout Notes

Barnes matches Vardy’s output over last four ahead of Double Gameweek

Crystal Palace 1-1 Leicester

  • Goals: Wilfried Zaha (£7.5m) | Harvey Barnes (£6.7m)
  • Assists: Andros Townsend (£5.7m) | Jonny Evans (£5.5m)
  • Penalty misses: Kelechi Iheanacho (£5.6m)
  • Penalty saves: Vicente Guaita (£4.9m)
  • Bonus points: Evans x3, Guaita 2, H Barnes x1

BARNES DOOR

Harvey Barnes (£6.7m) is making a strong case for winter investment as he added his fifth Premier League goal of the season against Crystal Palace.

It was the midfielder’s second in as many outings, made all the more impressive by the gap between his two most recent outings.

Despite Leicester facing matches on Saturday and Monday, Barnes played 90 minutes on each occasion, suggesting he is more nailed-on to start and, therefore, more viable as a Fantasy asset, than many of us had previously thought.

Brendan Rodgers praised his powers of recovery in the aftermath of the Foxes’ 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park, as well as his performance – helpful information for anyone considering a swoop for Barnes.

“I thought he was outstanding, to play a second 90 minutes having done so well against Man United, to play with that level of fitness. His movement was very helpful, getting us the penalty as well. All around he was a good threat.” – Brendan Rodgers

As mentioned by Rodgers, Barnes’ running would have ensured two attacking returns for Gameweek 16 had Kelechi Iheanacho (£5.6m) not missed the first-half penalty he won.

“I just said at half-time, it’s one you’ve got to let go. Kel’s practised five penalties this week in training and they were great. He was confident going in to take it and that’s all I can ask.” – Brendan Rodgers

……….. IT’S JAMIE VARDY

Even without adding that assist to his Gameweek 16 score, Barnes has still matched Jamie Vardy (£10.1m) as a Fantasy asset over the last four matches.

Bringing in eight points at Selhurst Park, one through bonus, the winger has racked up 20 during that time, an average of five per game.

The fact that Vardy suffered an inevitable benching on Monday means he also has 20 points over that period and an average of five per game – despite a £3.4m gap between him and Barnes’ price.

Leicester are certainly on the Fantasy radar right now with a Gameweek 17 trip to Newcastle in mind as well as Double Gameweek 19 meetings with Southampton (home) and Chelsea (home).

Considering that Vardy has suffered a dip from the form shown earlier in the campaign, and typically performs better away from home, Barnes could well be used as a cheaper alternative route into their attack based on recent performances.

The fact that he has started each of the last four, lasting 90 minutes in three of them, might count against him in the short-term, although Leicester do have a six-day gap between Gameweek 16 and 17 fixtures.

GOOD WIL HUNTING

It feels like some time since Wilfried Zaha (£7.5m) has delivered for his 19.4% ownership but there are plenty of encouraging signs moving forward.

His contribution to Crystal Palace’s campaign was, of course, limited by his self-isolation period for Gameweeks 9 and 10 – perhaps why he has been off the radar to some extent recently.

However, Zaha’s Gameweek 16 opener ensured he has now scored or assisted in all but one home start against sides outside the Premier League’s current top two.

With that in mind, the winger is worth considering between now and Gameweek 21, when Palace face three home matches from a possible five.

Even better, those home meetings are with Sheffield United, West Ham and Wolves – exactly the sort of opponent Zaha has enjoyed posting attacking returns against this season.

Crystal Palace XI (4-4-2): Guaita; Mitchell, Kouyaté, Tomkins, Clyne; Schlupp (Ayew 84′), Riedewald (McArthur 74′), Milivojević, A Townsend; Zaha, Benteke.

Leicester City XI (4-2-3-1): Schmeichel; L Thomas, Evans, Amartey, Justin; N Mendy, Choudhury (Tielemans 57′); H Barnes, Praet (Vardy 66′), Pérez; Iheanacho (Gray 72′).

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1,024 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Tim Canterbury
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Rhys Williams in for James?

    1. Atimis
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Will he start DGW?

      1. FourLokoLeipzig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Can’t see him starting both

    2. Do I Not Like Orange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No point. If he starts, Liverpool will concede.

  2. The Frenchie
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Can I please have your option guys?

    Do you think its worth it to get Rashford (LIV&FUL) instead of Son (SHU) for the DGW19? It means that I have to do this move for GW17 already when Rashford will face Aston Villa and Son Leeds. GW18 will be Free hit. It's also mean that I'm going to lost 0.4 million as I will get Son back on GW21 with my Wildcard.

    Initial team for DGW19:

    Meslier (BHA & SOU)

    Zouma (FUL & LEI)
    Chilwell (FUL & LEI)
    Coufal (BUR & WBA)

    Salah (MUN & BUR)
    Bruno (LIV & FUL)
    Soucek (BUR & WBA)
    Maddison (SHU & CHE)
    Son (SHE)

    Bamford (BHA & SOU)
    Vardy (SOU & CHE)

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Spurs looking like they are running through treacle so yes

  3. OPTA FPL
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Just did Grealish to Neto last night (bought him at 7.0)

    1. Atimis
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I moved him to Soucek 😀

    2. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Bad move as Grealish will defo score vs man united's leaky boat back 4.

      1. Atimis
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Shiettt talk like with waiting KDB to score

      2. It’s gonna Ben Mee
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        He was supposed to score vs Palace, Burnley, Brighton etc too. Good riddance.

    3. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      You cant get attached to players value... I did the same with Grealish & DCL... time to move on

  4. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Barnes or Raphinha?

    Have Vardy and Bamford.

    1. The Frenchie
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Barnes

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Barnes

    3. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Barnes

    4. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Depends on what you do with the extra 1.3m

  5. King of Kings.
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who do we reckon is the best "cheap" 5th midfielder to get in with DGW19 in mind (under 5.5)?

    Rafinha
    Soucek
    Lookman

    Any others?

    1. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Soucek

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I agree with this. Raphina a close second

    2. LewanGOALski
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I am currently on both Soucek & Raphinha as 4th & 5th - BBing in DGW19

    3. trinzoo
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      How about wait and see them today and tomorrow? 🙂

      1. trinzoo
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Also, I would probably double Irons def (Fabian and Coufal) for BB19 and still hope for Antonio being able to play - so no room for Soucek.

        1. King of Kings.
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah Trinzoo this is what I'm thinking too. I already have Balbuena and Coufal and would like Antonio ideally for the DGW.

          I'll have a look tomorrow and decide after those games. Possibly swaying towards Raf. Stats wise not much between them either.

    4. Karhumies
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Soucek unless you want to go super cheap with Romeu or Anguissa.

    5. Blzbobuk
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I went soucek and raphina but had Lookman in some drafts - it’s about the money elsewhere. Soucek more likely to get the clean sheet point which might be 50% higher score than the other 2. Score wise it’s who you get lucky with as getting something every third game would be a good result for the price.

  6. nico05
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Had KDB all season and wanted to stick with him but after the covid outbreak is it now time to get rid?
    If so who for? current midfield: Bruno-Salah-Neto-Grealish
    Thank you

    1. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Son.

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Although no DGW?

        1. FER FUSCH AKE
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Single gameweek players outscore double gameweek players a lot more than you can imagine.

          1. nico05
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            I agree tbh

          2. Homer21
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            This

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Mane?

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Another good shout, cheers guys

    3. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Rashford?

  7. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Come on Rashford. Make OGS start you tonight and qualify me in the Cup 😉

    1. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      He'll play.

      1. Salarrivederci
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Hope so 😉

        I lend some of you my bench players then 😉

        1. FER FUSCH AKE
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          If Kilman plays. I field out 10. Not the worst possible outcome IMO.

          1. Salarrivederci
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            I got this 😉

            Martínez (3)
            TAA - Robertson - Coufal
            (C) Salah - (vc) Fernandes - Son - Rashford - Grealish (2)
            Bamford - Welbeck

            (Farrell, Balbuena, Brewster, Mitchell (2) )

  8. Jordan.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    if i wore shorts as tight as grealish they would split and no shinpads my legs would be shredded by opposition sides ,also dubious comments by the mrs about his handsomness ,im rather glad he is on the wane,#notasfitasme

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      He seems to be morphing into Desperate Dan (ask your dad/granddad)

      1. Jordan.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        googled it,LOL

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        To be fair to him, so long as he is still producing the goods for Villa (and he is), why not?

        1. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Yep..People get jealous of other people who have it all . He does what he wants because he can. Fair play

          1. El Presidente
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            He shouldnt be able to do what he wants just because "he can". WTF

            1. Deulofail
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              Tbf being with a 'sulty black woman' is not on a par with drink driving, so you're both right, depending on what you mean haha

              1. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
                • 14 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                Apart from drink driving obviously. The other stuff is just Jack being Jack the lad

        2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Exactly, why not drink & drive - what’s the worst that could happen eh 🙂

        3. Fulchester's New Centr…
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          For clarity - doing things that endanger others, be it breaking lockdown rules and the laws of the road is obviously not cool; but going out in odd-slippers and doing things that young men enjoy, why not?

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            We’ve found Grealish’s lawyer’s account...

          2. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Its up to the club to punish him. If they let him get away with it then that's up to them.

            Drink driving is very bad. Thought people would have assumed no one in their right mind would condone that

  9. Egg noodle
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    w.r.t. My earlier post of "Klich out and Bamford doubtful for tonight's game apparently"

    The source tweet has since been deleted since then, so apologies for causing any panic.

    1. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Was just going to ask where this came from ? Don’t want bam to miss out !

      1. Bielsa Murderball
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        yep, my (vc) here with salah (c)...hope atleast one of them will play.

      2. Egg noodle
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Was from a Leeds fan who has been correct (once) before.

        Anyway, it's probably best to just completely ignore it because it has been deleted without explanation now.

    2. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Were you a Math or stats major?

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I have Klich and Bamford
      And KDB
      GW from hell

  10. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    I think some people take this game far to seriously. It's not a business where you're going to lose millions if some games are postponed. It's the same for everyone, some will get lucky others won't. Getting overly upset or wanting the rules changed is not productive. Just buckle down and learn to adapt, try a new strategy and have some fun.

    1. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Read my Bio.

    2. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      When I discovered this forum I was very surprised how seriously some people take it

    3. Pacer.
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      The saltiness on here when the MCI game got cancelled was something to behold. Toys out of the pram and into the exosphere. Game is gone, season over, casuls casuals casuals, it's all just luck, what's the point etc etc. Marvelous stuff. Checked my league, two or three people have been saying they're approaching the season with a stronger bench, better squad, using rotation more often, avoiding tripling etc. Two of them are mid table and one is top, TOP! Chatted to them yesterday, they were very much looking forward to the week with their 11 strong players.

      Try telling them the game hads gone. Like you say, adapt.

      1. Baines on Toast...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Agree. I think that ‘casual’ is now used as an insult to encapsulate the catch-all frustration that information is now more widely available and the general standard of play is much higher. Whereas a lot of people who have been playing for longer overthink things and miss the obvious like be prepared for disruption

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Personally i think casual is a compliment. Its just an indirect way of saying they don't let this game affect them as much as everyone else who make this game basically the center of their lives.

        2. Pacer.
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          it's basically the FPL equivalent of 'Karen' which is now just a term used for 'b1tch'. It has ceased to have any meaning at all. I honestly can't work out thesedays wether Brosstan's (for example) war against casuals is parody or not. I don't think he can either

          1. Baines on Toast...
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            I think it’s definitely parody in his case. He occasionally breaks the fourth wall.

        3. Pacer.
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Or is it Irbox? I can't tell those two apart some days

        4. El Presidente
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          For me "casual" represents the "cant be bothered with all this" players in the game. People that just dont care much about it. And thats ok, there is space and opportunity for everyone.

          But there is no way to deny that its an element of the game. There is "casual luck" and also casuals luck. Two different concepts.

          Otherwise, how the heck do you explain that almost 20% of people in the top 10k didnt even used their 1st wildcard?

          1. Pacer.
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            what makes me laugh is that 'casuals' (let's set an arbitrary benchmark of being people who don't read, adjust, lsten etc every single day) must vastly outweigh whatever people are who are not casuals. Really if anyone should be having a comically derogative slang term based on the fact that they are different, it should probably be us.

            'casuals' it always reminds me of repo man, when HDS and estevez are sitting in the car watching those people fighting across the road

            NSFW
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwSxBiS0rHY

      2. Ozzy smith
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Unless you have a premium option on your bench to replace the likes of KDB this week, your points reference mitigation methods such as a ‘strong bench’ or ‘not tripling up’ this season are null and void.

        You can only limit the damage, those with alternative premiums will benefit this week, those with the likes of KDB are disadvantaged directly because of misfortune, nothing else.

    4. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I'd like the rules changed, but only because I'd like a better game. Bit of a boring child's gameas it is. Roll the dice, move the players around, roll again, move, cross the line and count up the points. Yawn!

    5. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      They obviously have had their families kidnapped. They need to get in top 10k or the kidnappers will kill them all.

      1. Do I Not Like Orange
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        If this isn't a film yet, it should be.

        1. Fulchester's New Centr…
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          with Jason Statham, Sean Bean and Liam Neeson

          1. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Mark Strong as the baddie obvs

    6. Homer21
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ah yes, some common sense at last

    7. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Spot on, not to mention the fallout for some people and their families that covid can cause (whether they're players or staff or anyone else at the clubs affected). But no, muh FPL points

    8. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      FPL is the most important thing out of the non important things in life. There you go.

    9. Cruyff's Eleven
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Is there a minimum number of years being a member and/or hours "invested" in tinkering with one's team to be elevated out of casual status?

      And out of interest, what does one call a "non casual"?

      Asking for a friend.

      1. El Presidente
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Serious player. And than the elite, the pro players.

  11. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Good decisions will give you a good rank .... luck however determines how good that rank will be though 🙂

    1. The Polymath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Yep.

    2. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Nope.

      1. Amsterhammer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Well reasoned response.

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Nope.

        2. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Have I done better now and impressed you, Daddy?

    3. Egg noodle
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Good decisions don't always give you a good rank though 🙂

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I think most players with a good overall track record of, say, top 100k finishes have made on average good decisions, or decisions better than the masses.

        The season they fall substantially below that or rise above it is because the have had a bit of bad luck or good luck on the way ... imho

        1. The Seagulls and the Trawle…
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          This.

        2. Homer21
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          This

      2. Pacer.
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        they do over several seasons though, don't they. the best football managers have a glittering career, and the same should be expected of any manager who expects people to believe they're not simply 'lucky'

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Of course, if you take someone who has a consistent record in the top 50k, you will have someone with a consistent record in the top 50k. It's conceivable, though, that there are other players who are as good that them that don't have the same consistent record int he top 50k. There are millions of people who have played FPL over the years. Of course you will find anomalies, even over the course of 5 or 10 seasons.. It's natural for us to paint a story of unique skill, but perhaps that glittering career will come to an end this season and they won't be in the top 50k for the next 5-10 years, and then we'll stop calling it a glittering career. It's post-hoc labelling, is what I'm saying. Not saying that good players are not good.

          1. Homer21
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Anomalies tend to be the exception rather than the rule though

            1. Deulofail
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              Exactly

            2. Evil Buddha
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              Considering the number of FPL players and those who are around top 10k every year, they are going to be exception or anomalies.

            3. OverTinker
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              THIS

          2. Evil Buddha
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            This.

          3. Pacer.
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            yeah of course there's anomalies. with 7m players it's inevitable and taken to the extreme you can win the lotto or get struck by lightning twice. you can consider yourself pretty unlucky though over a period of say 5 years to be an anomoly. consistently suffering injuries, unexpected rotation, choosing the wrong 50/50 etc etc

            1. Deulofail
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              Yep, or lucky to be the anomaly whose 'career' is considered 'glittering'.

    4. liiusions
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      This season is going to be the season that requires the most luck, unfortunately

      1. Pacer.
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        while it's true that greater unpredictability means more luck is involved, the people in my league who have mitigated against that are doing rather well. it's not really luck in their case, as they were explicit that they felt money spread through the whole squad could be the right strategy this year rather than trying to make the most efficient X1 and moreorless disregarding the other 4 spots

      2. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        to a certain degree yes, but in such tricky circumstances the decisions we make can help the luck we get.

        Doubling up on City defenders when there is already Covid in the club (and having a bench of fodder) and then having a have game cancelled .... is that bad luck or bad judgement ?

        Captaining and vice captaining players from the same team and their game gets cancelled, is that bad luck ? ... oops I did that with Kane & Son so won’t make that mistake again

    5. tisza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Jesus 94th minute goal last game of season 2018 put me back into top 100 🙂

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        congrats ... do you have a good overall rank history ?

      2. tisza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        normally target top 1%. 4 top 10ks. only real blip was last season when i missed a load of GWs after restart.

    6. Canadian Football
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Honestly, IMO there is very little luck in this game. Sure, in any given week one can get lucky. But over the long run making solid and informed decisions make all the difference.

      Haven’t paid close attention over my last 4 seasons and have been more of a “casual”. My avg rank is about 300k.

      While for my first 5 seasons, when I was a “hardcore contributor” to the game and this site I had 4 top 10k finishes including 2 top 1000.

      1. Evil Buddha
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Um, personally I'd say it's more luck than anything else.

        1. Canadian Football
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          No way. Respectfully disagree.

        2. Pacer.
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          it can be proven fairly easily that managerial decisions play a greater role in outcome than luck. randomise a squad each week for a season and play against it

          1. Deulofail
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Quite an unfair test, that.

            1. Pacer.
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              why. the argument is that luck is the single greatest contributer to outcome. what's unfair about that test - randomising a squad is just a dependent variable

              1. Evil Buddha
                • 9 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                Considering the AI which currently does the randomizing is poor makes the effort worthless. Feel free to disagree but luck is worth more than skill in FPL.

                1. Pacer.
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 3 months ago

                  then pick names out of a hat. do this once a week for 38 weeks and see which team is consistently full of terrible players, non-starters and injured players and which team consistently wins most weeks. managerial decisions are the single biggest factor. sure, as you get closer and closer to anything that resembles an optimum team the balance between skill/luck probably becomes finer and finer but these have tiny, tiny impact relatively speaking. it could win or lose you the world title, but luck is unlikely to be the difference bwteen a good and a bad rank, year on year

                  1. Klaren
                    • 6 Years
                    3 years, 3 months ago

                    If you can’t see that owning or not owning players in a postponed fixture is pure luck, you are deluded.

                    1. Pacer.
                      • 9 Years
                      3 years, 3 months ago

                      please try to join in the actual debate and not just turn up to be offensive. the question: is luck the single greatest factor in FPL. not whether it's lucky whether your players got binned this week or not

                      really no need to be rude like that

              2. Deulofail
                • 8 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                Well I suppose I could list about 10 issues, but I'll give #1: randomising from all players would include that players don't play, are injured, etc. You'd surely want to set a threshold for a reasonable decision so you can test a good decision vs a less good one, rather than simply human decisions vs something that's not actually playing the game. When we talk about 'luck' in FPL, we are talking about whether good player A or good player B scores more points, and combinations of players, and whether transfers and hits pay off. We're not talking about whether owning players who play is a good decision or luck, which seems closer to what you're testing.

                1. Pacer.
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 3 months ago

                  why disregard players that don't play. this is just a test of whether luck is the dominant factor to, well, we haven't agreed what... let's just say average rank over several seasons. all those foundational things like having players who play, not picking SHU defenders etc are managerial decisions. it might seem incredibly obvious to you, but those decisions are managerial input, not chance. there's some chance in the outcome.

                  1. Deulofail
                    • 8 Years
                    3 years, 3 months ago

                    Nobody is aguing against what you are saying. The luck' factor people talk about is what makes the difference between two managers. Is the difference down to luck or skill. Your question/method doesn't address this.

                    1. Deulofail
                      • 8 Years
                      3 years, 3 months ago

                      Or rather the difference between teams, sets of players, or more significantly, decisions. No point testing the difference between someone who knows the rules and somebody who doesn't, and doesn't even need to abide by the rules.

                    2. Pacer.
                      • 9 Years
                      3 years, 3 months ago

                      as i said, when you start to arrive at what looks like an optimum squad the balance between luck and skill gets finer and finer and harder to justify in each case. orignal post said this game is more luck than anything else. that's clearly not the case

                      1. Deulofail
                        • 8 Years
                        3 years, 3 months ago

                        "The game". Your test has a human manager playing FPL against an AI who's playing a different game. Obviously MSN isn't arguing that he couldn't beat a random team every week, even if he says the game is more luck than anything else. You're turning the thread into a language game and arguing against a straw man.

                        Almost 100% of people signed up to FPL already take the game more seriously than your AI by starting with a team that might actually have a chance to score points and beat their rivals. The question is to what extent your position in your ML or overall standings at the end of the season down to your managerial skill (vs the skill of others), and then also between GWs and over the course of multiple seasons. 'Luck' in and of itself doesn't even exist. It cannot be a contributing factor. But if I played this season with 1000 teams (ideally in 1000 parrallel universes), given very minimal tweak in the info I use to make decisions, OR with different starting teams, the outcomes (and OR at the end of the season) would be dramatically varied, even though I'm as equally as skilled as I am (however skilled that is). One little decision can cause a chain reaction, and multiple good decisions can be beaten by multiple bad decisions. The question of how much our own skill contributes to our rank (overall or vs rivals or vs ourselves in alternate realities) is tricky to answer, but the way to test it is not to pit a human against a bad FPL score.

                      2. Evil Buddha
                        • 9 Years
                        3 years, 3 months ago

                        This is the point. More eloquent than me for sure.

                2. Evil Buddha
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 3 months ago

                  This. Like at the start of current season you'd rate kdb and son the same, if not kdb higher because of better team but those who started with son did better not due to skill. Having a skill to foresee which good player scores better points which gameweeks is just not true. It's luck.

                  1. Pacer.
                    • 9 Years
                    3 years, 3 months ago

                    that's a big claim to make. KdB was priced at 11.5m this year. He would have needed moreorless to match his best ever season to simply be acceptable. While it's hard to predict the actual pointscoring in initial gameweeks, it's a fairly sound decision to go with Son as KdB has it all to do to justify his price tag. Son at 9.5m, less so.

                    1. Deulofail
                      • 8 Years
                      3 years, 3 months ago

                      That's a big claim. Of course, price is a factor, but ultimately, Son has got 119 points so far, weile KDB has 68. If the points were reversed you wouldn't say the same thing. And it's pretty irrelevant to the point that MSN is trying to make which is essentially that we don't know the future. You comment comes from the perspective of someone who does know the future (now that it's happened).

                      1. Pacer.
                        • 9 Years
                        3 years, 3 months ago

                        I started with Son becuase I felt KdB represented very shakey value. So it's not really from the perspective you claim

                    2. Evil Buddha
                      • 9 Years
                      3 years, 3 months ago

                      Yes but there's no way you would know before which one would do better would you? This happens a lot in small pockets with players and teams especially in the first 10-15 gws and there is no way and level of skill would let you know beforehand. We judge based on hindsight so what we see as skill is mostly disguised luck. Even those with correct decisions in these cases would say it's not skill and those are not the majority anyway

          2. Canadian Football
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Some might say that some seasons are easier than others, ie give the armband to the likes of RVP, Suarez or Ronaldo every week. But you still must stay disciplined to not waiver from the strategy.

  12. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    City test results due out 11.00am to Noon tomorrow. Local rumour is that 5 of the 11 to play Everton tested positive

    1. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      What will the implications be on future gameweeks?

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      will be interesting to find out about this ... looks like the new mutant ninja strain of Covid does spread easier

      1. Ron_Swanson
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Kyle Walker probably to blame

        1. Amsterhammer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Man loves a prostitute.

  13. casual69
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Advice needed please, looking at my options for GW19...

    Can anyone shed any light on Ben Johnson? Is he Likely to play any more? At 3.9m he's exceptional value lol
    Secondly with matip injured, is Rhys Williams a good cheap way into L'pool with the double game week approaching?

    1. Egg noodle
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ben Johnson is anyone's guess. I'd avoid when Coufal is only 0.8 more.

    2. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Looking at this as well because I have 0.2 itb and need to shift lamptey and leave funds to get my 4.0 keeper to Johnstone

      So basically need a sub 4.3 playing defender for the dgw

      The West Ham fans I’m talking to think he’s got a spot there

      1. Mr. Funny Name
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        O Shea??

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      He's played 1 game so we have no idea until/unless he starts 2/3/4 games in a row.

      1. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Well, let’s assume they stay with the 2 full backs and 3 CB, who else will play there ?

        Genuine question

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Your question is inherently biased as there's no guarantee they stick with the back 5.

          Moyes has a tendency to go a bit make-shift with players so another person could slot in.

          Looking at forums Johnson could, in the short term, stick - play as the lone LB (in place of a resting Cresswell) or miss out altogether.

          Basically his spot is not secured in the slightest.

          1. Steve The Spud
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            I don’t think it’s biased if you start with ‘let’s assume that’ . I was just trying to find out if being replaced with another player was one of the factors in play or if it was just a tactical change that would see him dropped, mr grumpy

            1. Hazz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              I just mean you should assume they're sticking to a back five.

              1. Hazz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                shouldn't*

    4. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      At 3.9 he isn't a huge risk . If it all goes bad just accept it and take out for a hit .

      Moyes mentioned looking for a Masuaku replacement and that's why he tried Johnson

      Lot of fans don't think Cresswell is a good enough defender too so it a fair risk

      Pointless doing same as everyone on here. Be as different as you can. It may work, it may not but you are no sheep 😉

      1. casual69
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        then you have the matip issue...

  14. Luton_Fan
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    When will we know if the liverpool game goes ahead?

    1. liiusions
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No news is normally good news

  15. liiusions
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    I very reluctantly did KDB + DCL -> Kane + Son for -8 before the deadline. Not a move I would normally make but somehow it is almost certainly going to pay off. Unless Brewster goes nuts of course 😆

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Hope Kane & Son don't blank vs. that resolute Fulham defense...

      1. liiusions
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Think they win 2-0 which is enough for them both to haul

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Based on?

          1. Big boy Bowen
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Kane and Son goal ratio involvement I guess

            1. Hazz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              The scoreline.

              1. Big boy Bowen
                • 7 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                Ah ok

          2. liiusions
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Just a prediction. Don’t see them battering Fulham but when Spurs score, it’s normally one of both of them two involved.

            1. El Presidente
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              Last time they scored was Ndombele G BDavies A

  16. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Neco Williams is also certain to get a start in one of the upcoming games, while James Milner could fill in at LB to give Andy Robertson a break. [Liverpool Echo

    1. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Goodgood

    2. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Not this GW please for a Robbo rest, squad is bare to the bone as it is

    3. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Highly doubt it having already dropped points against WBA. Also they have the best schedule.

  17. Overated Mou
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Just got CANCELo in this week
    And guess what??
    The game got CANCELd
    Hmm...

    1. aleksaa2
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      And he has Covid...

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Illuminati

  18. Team Bobcat
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    There are only two games before international break. Top players will not be rested in that scenario unless of course they pick up a knock or the like which no one will notice anyway but themselves. I wouldn't overthink it

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Could be dropped for IBI (International Break Injuries) to deliberately miss internationals

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ah I had just forgotten about the delights of international games and their effect on FPL

    3. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Like Vardy?

  19. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Afternoon all, any rumours/team leaks?

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I'm seeing some Bamford benched rumours

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Looks like I’m going to need my bench of Soucek, Targett (2) and Mitchell (2) this week then!

    2. Pacer.
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      no rumours but discussion amongst WHU fans that rice and soucek need rests and now is a likely time for one or other

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        That would be typical, as I’m guaranteed Soucek off the bench for DCL

      2. FPL_Motty
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Nah, Moyes is old school. Rice and Soucek are old school, they can deal with it

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Kim and Kanye's marriage supposedly in trouble

  20. Plagued by indecision
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    GIven all the uncertainty around fixtures it is quite difficult to plan, but if you were considering free hit in 19 who would you deem vital?

    I have Salah, Fernandes, Bamford, Robertson, Leeds/West Ham GK/DEF, plus Vardy, Barnes, Soucek...

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I know, for this reason I think I’m going TC in GW19, can imagine there will be an even bigger DGW down the line.

      Also allows me to build up team value and have a stronger bench

    2. Blzbobuk
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Free hit means you don’t need to plan and you can laugh like a villain at the chaos(as long as it’s pre deadline).

  21. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Is it worth to bench boost this line up?

    Martinez Grealish DCL Taylor

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I would

    2. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I guess there will not be a better chance, unless you are not using FH18 as some might plan (FPL Wire-style)

  22. Halftime
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Took a punt and swopped KDB for Auba. Arsenal have good fixtures and were good against Chelsea. Has anyone any opinion on if he will start tonight?

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah Auba will start over Martinelli probably

      1. Qaiss
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Or possibly Laca

    2. liiusions
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I was very tempted to put in Martinelli this week but Auba returning would surely take his position. So I reckon, yes he does

    3. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Is he definitely fit?

    4. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Might start ahead of Laca up top, can’t see any of the youngsters who impressed vs Chelsea being taken out the side

    5. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A punt too far.

  23. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    BREAKING: Premier League confirms 18 positive tests in latest round of COVID-19 testing for players and staff, more than twice as many as in previous round.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Null and void in 3...2...

    2. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I think most are City players and staff members

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        13 other positive tests in addition to Man City...oh dear

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Ohdamn

        2. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Gabriel from Arsenal is one of them

        3. Evil Buddha
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Well they could be city staff.

          1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Says in the article those 13 are unrelated to City

    3. The Polymath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Mostly from Man City and support staff I would guess.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Nope 5 are from Man City and the remaining 13 other clubs. This also does not include the City positives from yesterday apparently.

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          That is bad

        2. The Polymath
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          That's what I'm indicating if 5 are from Man city then 13 have to shared between 19 clubs.

    4. Evil Buddha
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Any other teams/places except City?

      1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Gabriel from Arsenal

        1. Evil Buddha
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Wow.

    5. JonBoy
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Not as many as it sounds. Nearly 1500 tests.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This does not include City's positives from yesterday apparently.

        1. Evil Buddha
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          This definitely means more teams will postpone then doesn't it? City set up a template for postponement anyway.

          1. Big boy Bowen
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Depends on the mix, 1-3 per club might be ok

          2. The Polymath
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Of course not, even if it's 18 players out of 19 clubs that's not enough to suggest any postponements.

        2. JonBoy
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          I read that. Seemed a weird sentence. 13+5 does not make up the 18. And if you read above it does seem to include them but from a previous day?
          Badly phrased. Need better editors!

          1. Big boy Bowen
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            13+5 does not equal 18?

  24. Halftime
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Hopefully, at least I didn't swop him for Sterling. That was another option.

  25. Trippier Hazard
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Which player's return to the fold do you think will have the biggest impact on their team's performance?

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ziyech

      1. JonBoy
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Agreed. Barkley might have an impact if Grealish moves left again.

      2. Homer21
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Yep

    2. Pep bites Kun
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Aguero

      1. Gerd Mueller’s thighs
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This......Kun could be a real differential if he gets regular starts. KDB will likely thrive as well.

  26. Giovanni Giorgio
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Hey. Anyone know when we will know where they put the postponed City game?

  27. Giovanni Giorgio
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Agreement with @diegocosta for the termination of his contract.
    The club wishes the striker the best of luck in the next stage of his professional career.

    What happened here?

    1. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lots of injuries and not enough playing time for such high salary. His contract ended in 6 months anyway

    2. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Family reasons have been cited. Also, despite playing a bit this year, lots of injuries. Had an operation end of 2018 on a long-term issue and not quite been the same physically to be counted on regularly.

      If any CL-rival or La Liga rival (Barça, Real, Sevilla) sign him as a free-agent then apparently 15m Euros owed to Atleti as part of the financial negotiations of terminating his contract.

  28. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Surely these international break games will be called off in the midst of increasing positive domestic cases?

    1. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Hope so, I hate international football

  29. Gobigorgohome
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    OMG 13 positives cases and those are not from city

    I can see more postponement soon

    1. Cruyff's Eleven
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Pot luck. Nothing I can do about it, so I'm not going to worry or moan....

  30. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Hi any help please grealish to a) Barnes b) zaha c) Neto d) another ? Or e) keep? Cheers