Spot the Differential

Updated fixtures boost case for Maguire and Man United defence

The Gameweek 17 deadline is almost upon us which gives us the opportunity to have a look at some differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks from Manchester United, Arsenal and Crystal Palace, who we think have the potential to make a big impact.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Harry Maguire

  • FPL ownership: 3.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: AVL | bur | liv + ful | SHU | ars

Manchester United are now unbeaten in nine league games, and following Tuesday’s late win over Wolverhampton Wanderers, have put themselves in the thick of the Premier League title race.

One of the key players for the Red Devils during that run of improved form has been Harry Maguire (£5.4m).

The England international has bounced back following a tough start to the season, and could be a shrewd differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a new defender.

Following yesterday’s fixture announcement, United now have a favourable schedule which includes games against Burnley, Fulham and Sheffield United in the next five. In fact, between Gameweeks 17 and 25, they sit top of the ticker from a defensive perspective. Obviously, they need to improve at the back having already conceded 23 goals, but it does feel like progress is being made and a clean sheet in midweek now gives them something to build on.

However, the real appeal lies in Maguire’s goal threat. Since the beginning of the season, the 27-year-old has registered more shots and attempts in the box than any defender in the game, while he ranks third for excepted goals (xG). For context, his 17 shots in the box is only three behind team-mate Bruno Fernandes (£11.2m).

Importantly, Maguire has been ever-present for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side this season, and with his ability to contribute FPL points at both ends of the pitch, is a tempting New Year investment.

Gabriel Martinelli

  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: wba | CRY | NEW | sou | MUN

Next up is an interesting budget option at Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m), who has recently returned from a six-month spell on the sidelines.

The Brazilian has now started back-to-back league matches, and been central to the Gunners’ upturn in form which has seen them beat Chelsea and Brighton and Hove Albion.

Admittedly, it took them a while to get going against Albion, but they found their rhythm in the second half, with youngsters Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m), Bukayo Saka (£5.2m) and Martinelli pulling the strings. The inclusion of the young trio behind a striker has galvanised Mikel Arteta’s side, and with a great run of games against West Bromwich Albion, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United coming up, they could offer real value. 

However, if it comes down to goal threat alone, I’d put Martinelli comfortably ahead right now. His clever movement and knack of being in the right place at the right time will see plenty of goalscoring opportunities come his way, and having netted 10 goals from 26 appearances across all competitions last season, his potential is evident. 

His link-up play with Kieran Tierney (£5.3m) down Arsenal’s left-side has also stood out, which is important considering Arsenal’s next two opponents concede plenty of chances from that side of the pitch.

After a turbulent few weeks, Arsenal will be hopeful of moving up the Premier League table in 2021, and with Martinelli making an instant impact upon returning to the starting XI, they could yet turn their season around.

Eberechi Eze

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: SHU | ars | mci | WHU | WOL

Eberechi Eze (£5.8m) has impressed for Crystal Palace this season, developing into his side’s main creative outlet.

Since becoming a regular starter in Gameweek 8, he ranks top amongst team-mates for chances created, big chances created and successful take-ons, while only Andros Townsend (£5.7m) has attempted more crosses. 

Key to his appeal is this week’s opponents Sheffield United, who are still without a win all season. The defensive data tells us that they have given up a significant amount of chances from their right flank. In fact, only West Bromwich Albion have conceded more from that zone this season, which is relevant with Eze operating off the left in Roy Hodgson’s 4-4-2. 

It’s also worth noting that the Blades have often looked vulnerable defending set-plays, having allowed 72 attempts on goal from dead-ball situations so far, more than any other side. With Eze being known for his ability from set-pieces and drawing fouls from the opposition, he could be set to profit in Gameweek 17.

Palace currently sit 15th in the Premier League table and despite a dip in form over Christmas, looked more assured in Monday’s draw against Leicester City. A win on Saturday would see them rise above Newcastle United, Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers into 12th spot, at least temporarily, and they won’t get a better chance than against the Blades.

While three attacking returns is a fairly modest total for Eze so far, he is an exciting player with big potential, and given his opponents defensive vulnerabilities, could be set to add to his tally this weekend.

1,606 Comments Post a Comment
  1. circusmonkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Have been wondering whether to do KDB to Son hokey cokey but have decided it isn't worth it, it costs me 4 points + 2 transfers just for one game. I'm actually at the stage where I don't want to change my team much and am saving this week.

    It would be good to know whether Burnley v Fulham goes ahead but I guess we won't know until after the deadline. Soucek off the bench isn't a bad Lowton replacement.

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Would you captain Son? That could be the decisive factor

      1. circusmonkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Yes, although Bruno still is higher on the RMT tool, so that was another reason to put me off doing it.

        1. IRBOX ⚽
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          RMT is not a reliable source of points, very far from

    2. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Wait for Presser

      1. circusmonkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Oh yes, just seen that: Parker 1pm, thank you.

  2. Nolberto Solano
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Which of the following should I do this week? FH18, the other I will do in DGW19:

    A) Son -> Rashford
    B) Kane -> Vardy

    1. Origi-nal
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Taking Kane out before Leeds at home seems like madness

    2. Cruyff's Eleven
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd keep Son against Leeds.

  3. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi 2021!

    Insights please, what's the best information on the Chelsea v Man City game happening? Cheers.

    Good luck in this new year.

    Which may not be radically different until May or June ...

    1. Mr Arsenal
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I just hope KDB and Sterling have been spared by COVID. Sounds like Cancello and Ederson haven’t...

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks.

        so we're confident the game will happen?

  4. Ruinenlust
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Captain Son or Bruno?

    1. JoeJitzu +42
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I’m going with Bruno

    2. faver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Im going with Son

    3. Cruyff's Eleven
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      AVL defence improving

      1. IRBOX ⚽
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Improving? It’s been an incredible all season

        1. Cruyff's Eleven
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Son it is 🙂

  5. JoeJitzu +42
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Want to setup for DGW19 have 1 FT and 0.7 in the bank, willing to take a hit

    Forster
    Taylor*
    Son
    DCL

    Current 19;
    McCarthy
    Robertson Zouma Coufal Dallas
    Salah Fernandes Rashford Soucek
    Bamford Watkins

  6. Sausage™️
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is Vardy fit to play..?

    1. faver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I would say so. Last game he came for 30 minutes. It was purely resting reasons.

      1. Well you know, Triffic
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        No wolves on here pal, only sheep

        1. Well you know, Triffic
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Woops fail!

  7. faver
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    RE:
    Any Wolves can can confirm that Max Kilman can play this GW? With Boly on 75% I can see bench

  8. The Prophet
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Lads, a quick one but a big one.... please advise -

    Start Podence or Raphinha??

    Thanks.

    1. faver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I would say Podence. Also it depends on your front 3.

      1. The Prophet
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        This week -

        DCL, Bamford, Wood

        1. faver
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Ye, Podence. Cover more games.

  9. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    what to do here? have 2ft 0.1m itb and def FH18 so prefer to use one if not both transfers this week
    95% BB19, currently non playing second keeper
    tempted to do adams to rodrigo but still not enough for keeper upgrade

    could do kdb to son (c) then bring back for gw19
    any advice would be great!

    Martinez
    Robbo Dias Coufal
    Salah Bruno Kdb Grealish Soucek
    DCL Bamford
    Steer Dallas Adams Taylor

    1. Tinfoil Deathstar
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Could you do Taylor to Targett, and Adams to Watkins? You could save FH then as you’d have 10 for next GW

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        no. martinez steer grealish from villa

        1. Tinfoil Deathstar
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Ah I’m clearly still struggling with the NYE hangover. Taylor to Holding looks a good bet then.

  10. egan
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    el Ghazi or Raphinha

    1. faver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If you can hold for 1 gw then do it. There is a slight chance, that Ross return will decrease El Ghazis minutes. On Dean Smiths place I would bench Traore and start El Ghazi Grealish Ross Watkins and McGinn

  11. Tinfoil Deathstar
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who to bench: Adams or Soucek?

    1. Catastrophe
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Close. Probably soucek (just)

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      i'm benching adams

  12. Catastrophe
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Happy new year! Best option for DGW19?

    A) Zouma, Alioski, Vardy
    B) Robertson, Cancelo, Rodrigo
    C) Dallas, Balbuena, Vardy
    D) Cancelo, Alioski, Vardy

    Thinking D for balance (will have 2 City, 2 Leeds, 2 Liverpool + Vardy).

    Cheers.

  13. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Already own Martinez

    For next 4 GWs

    Who to pick?

    1. Targett
    2. Lowton

    1. faver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      As a Targett owner I would say Targett. From those 4 fixtures I can say Burnley will keep 1 clean, and its vs Fulham.
      I can see AVL clean against Everton and 60% chance vs Spurs. Also Targett is more likely to get attacking return

    2. moz_1983
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Lowton for me, and I'm considering the same dilemma.

  14. Munny Man
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi all.
    Do I still get a free transfer in GW19 if I’m playing the bench boost chip?
    Thanks.

    1. Origi-nal
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Of course.

      1. Munny Man
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks fella.

  15. thegaffer82
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    The news yesterday still hasn’t had time to sink in yet thanks to NYE &

    1. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Premature ejaculation here...

      I’ll try again soon 🙁

  16. Napoleon IV
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    MF Doom dead 🙁

  17. fridge
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Think I’m going to stick to my FH 18, BB 19 for now. Worth doing Taylor > Lowton this week?

    McCarthy
    TAA. Coufal. Dallas
    Salah. Bruno. Son. Soucek
    Kane. Wood. Bamford

    4.0. Raphinha. Taylor. Balbuena

  18. Oggle22
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Martinez
    Konsa Mitchell Holding
    Salah Son Bruno Saka
    Bamford Firmino Kane

    Steele Soucek Kilman Taylor

    Should I get rid of Firmino and Taylor -4? Surely even the troll Firmino has to do bits with a double game week?

  19. Burger_and_Chips
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Best Taylor replacement? 0.4 ITB.

    1. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Coufal / Lowton

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Depends on what you are doing in GW18/19

  20. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    RP - Currently have 6 players for BGW18. I can carry 2FT to 18 to get 8 players but not sure who to transfer out or I can FH18. Any thoughts on this. Thanks

    1FT 0.1itb
    Martinez*
    Taylor* Robbo Cancelo*
    Son* Bruno* Salah Raphinha
    Bamford Kane* Rodrigo
    (Johnstone Soucek Coufal Balbuena)

    1. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Neto might be a nice punt (for Soucek or Raph)

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Not enough budget for neto. I would ideally want to bring in a player from villa, City, Utd or bur.

    2. JabariParkersEyelid
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd just free hit. The United game in 18 makes the free hit a much more attractive option imo especially as there will be many looking to muddle through with 7 or 8 now.

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers

  21. TheDragon
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is Taylor -> Dias -4 worth it?

    Other defenders are Robertson, Mitchell, Taylor, KWP, Dallas

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes, good fixtures so the hit will pay off quickly

  22. Tarzan
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi, I have a question

    I have 2 FTs right now, I plan to FH GW18..
    If I use 1 FT this week, will my other FT roll over to GW 19?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No you will only have 1FT in 19

      1. Tarzan
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        ok thank you sir

  23. Origi-nal
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Play Coufal or Soucek?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Soucek

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Soucek.

    3. JoeSoap
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Soucek

  24. Andre_The_Giant
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Well lads, any word on Charlie Taylor?

  25. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Do we think antonio starts all 3 games in gw17&19?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No

    2. Origi-nal
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No

    3. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very unlikely considering the length of time he’s been out

  26. konrad.sygula95
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who is best replacement for Taylor?
    Justin?

    Martinez
    Dier/Coufal/Cancelo
    Son(c)/Fernandes/Salah/Grealish
    Watkins/DCL/Bamford

    Bench: Forster/KWP/Anguissa/Taylor
    1ft 2.7 itb

  27. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Lamptey to Tierney sound good?

    Current defence:

    Robbo, Dias, Coufal, Mitchell, Lamp

    1. Origi-nal
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd get rid of Mitchell first

      1. Weak Become Heros
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        But he got a game over PVA last week and looked solid?

        1. Cruyff's Eleven
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          PvA was rested

          1. Weak Become Heros
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Cheers.

      2. Weak Become Heros
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers.

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

  28. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Start KWP or Dallas?

    1. JabariParkersEyelid
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Dallas

    2. JoeSoap
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Dallas

    3. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Is this a serious question?

  29. JoeSoap
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Planning on Son>KDB GW19 (not BBing)

    Who would you being in this wk and for whom? (will have 1.8 to play with allowing for above transfer)

    A. Stones
    B. Cancelo
    C. Diaz
    D. Other

    MCCARTHY, Steer
    ZOUMA, JUSTIN, DALLAS, COUFAL, Mitchell
    FERNANDES, Grealish, Son, SALAH, MENDY
    BAMFORD, dcl, ADAMS

  30. Burger_and_Chips
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    What about Stones as a replacement for Taylor? 0.4 ITB so can just about get him.

    Any other better defenders?

    (Going to free chip next gw then Bench boost the DGW)