Pro Pundits

What I’ve learned about key FPL assets at half-way stage of unpredictable season

As we are midway through the season, it is an important time for some reflection which, for me, involves pausing and looking at some numbers.

And, anyone who knows me well enough should not be surprised to see that includes assessing the performance of big hitters against opposition of varying degree. 

It has not been a good first half of the season but, with all my chips intact, I’m hoping I can turn things around in the second half of the campaign. I’ve been making some steady progress in the last few weeks but it isn’t the Nitro boost I’m hoping for. 

I’ve recorded six green arrows out of the last eight Gameweeks where I’ve steadily climbed from 3.1 million to 1.47 million and I am hoping that trajectory continues.

This article is based on what I did at two previous occasions last season as well where I look at the performance of big hitters against different quality defences and try to make sense of the numbers and how it can help us in the future. This is the link to my previous article.

Just like my last piece on this subject, I divided the league into three tiers of defence (based on my opinion, form and some statistics). They are fairly similar to the assumptions I had last time around but please treat them strictly as my opinion. 

Then using the very useful ‘Per 90’ and ‘Performance Versus’ filters from the Premium Members Area, I tabulated the performances of these big hitters against the three categories of defences to see how much of an effect the fixtures have on them. 

I’ve delved further with my analysis this time around to see if we could gauge anything substantial from this data.

First off, the categorisation of teams is as follows:

  • The Kolarov (Top Tier) – Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottehnham Hotspur, Leicester City, Manchester United
  • The Lescott (Middle Tier) – Arsenal, Burnley, Everton, Wolves, Aston Villa, Southampton, West Ham
  • The Bramble (Bottom Tier) – Brighton, Newcastle United, Leeds United, West Brom, Sheffield United, Fulham, Crystal Palace

This table comparison gives us the Goals + Assists per 90 for these assets against different defences in the previous season as well as this season. The first thing that jumps out to me is the averages. 

While there was a distinct difference in the performance of assets against varying opposition in the previous season, the same hasn’t been the case this season. This is one of the reasons my ‘upside chasing’ strategy where I try to bring in players to captain in a good fixture hasn’t worked as effectively as last season primarily because broadly speaking, the performance of these premium picks against Kolarov (0.5 to 0.6) and Lescott (0.6 to 0.8) teams have improved. 

Secondly, players are not as explosive against Bramble teams as they were last season (1.0 to 0.8). And thirdly, my subjective opinion is that the likes of Harry Kane (£11.1m), Bruno Fernandes (£11.3m) and Son Heung-min (£9.7m) who are the highly owned assets in this game, haven’t really slowed down to an extreme degree which makes going for other big hitters, even for captaincy, more risky than it was last season because simply put, you’re betting against players who aren’t really slowing down.

Let’s now look at the performance of players on a team to team basis.

MANCHESTER CITY

Let’s talk about Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) first (in case you missed it, he looks out for a while). He’s playing in a slightly different position compared to last year and while he was hugely consistent against opposition of varying degree last season, he’s underperformed a bit against the Kolarov and Bramble teams this season. 

This makes sense to me because of two things. Firstly, Manchester City haven’t been the same free-scoring team this year that they were in the last season and arguably more value lies in their defence. Secondly, I also put down De Bruyne’s underperformance down to the fact that he and his compatriots have missed a lot of the chances created as well and he has been underperforming compared to his underlying numbers. It is worth noting that he has three goals and an xG of 7.48 this season. 

Raheem Sterling’s (£11.4m) numbers expectedly have gone down this season. What is worth noting is that he still has fairly strong numbers against ‘Bramble’ teams and is facing West Brom and Sheffield United in his next two fixtures. It is also worth noting that Phil Foden (£6.3m) has done fairly well against Kolarov and Lescott teams in the limited minutes he’s afforded against them.

Liverpool

Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) has fairly consistent numbers compared to last season with a slight improvement in performance against Lescott and Bramble teams. This despite the five blanks (hello Zambian FPL addict) that he has had off late. It is worth noting that Salah still has the second best performance against Bramble teams, behind Jamie Vardy (£10.1m). 

Sadio Mané’s (£11.8m) numbers are still fairly consistent against Kolarov and Lescott teams but he’s seen quite a fall against the Bramble teams this season. The emergence of penalty picks and Mané’s form quite hasn’t been there in the first half of the season and it is worth monitoring if things change in the second half of the season.

MANCHESTER UNITED

When it comes to the Manchester United assets, it’s all about Bruno Fernandes (£11.3m). He’s shown a drastic improvement in his performance against the Kolarov and Lescott teams. He’s behind only Kane for performance against the Lescott teams and is as effective as Salah against Bramble opposition, which makes him a safe go to captaincy option against obliging defences. Marcus Rashford’s (£9.6m) numbers have reduced against good teams but he has seen a substantial improvement against poor teams. Such is Anthony Martial’s form (£8.8m) that his numbers have deteriorated across the board. 

THE OTHERS

The big story here is the Spurs assets. While I don’t have Son’s numbers from last season, Both him and Kane do incredibly well against all three kinds of opposition. 

The numbers for Kane and son against opposition of different category make sense to me as you’d expect Son to be more effective against Kolarov teams where they are expected to counter and you expect Kane to do better against Bramble opposition where you’d expect the opposition to sit deeper. 

Kane’s numbers have improved across the board from last season. Son is second only to Foden against good teams which is a good sign for those looking at him for De Bruyne replacements with the game against Liverpool incoming. Both players are best in class against Lescott teams which is the prime reason for fixture chasing with other premium assets simply hasn’t been as effective. Kane is a more reliable captain against more obliging teams. 

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s (£11.3m) numbers have dropped across the board and he simply hasn’t been in form this season. He does have the highest Non-Pen xG numbers in the league in the last four Gameweeks so things do look like they are changing. 

Historically, Auba is a good bet against weaker opposition but Arsenal’s fixtures don’t look very appealing in the mid-term. Vardy (who is also going to be out for a while) has done really well this season. He has increased his output against good opposition (hat trick vs Manchester City, goal and assist vs Spurs, assist vs Man United) and has been the most explosive asset amongst all the premium big hitters against obliging teams. 

He has a staggering 1.7 Goal + Assist/90 against such teams which is a shame because Leicester City had a good fixture run and he would have been a great asset to own in these fixtures based on his previous appearances.

Here is just a last look at these numbers for this season and three things stand out to me.

  1. The Spurs assets have good numbers across the board 
  2. Bruno, Vardy and Salah’s reliability against obliging teams could be key in the second half of the campaign.
  3. How these averages compare to last season

 That said it doesn’t take much time for the Fantasy landscape to change and I will be looking forward to doing a similar analysis at the end of this season.

Good luck to everyone preparing for Gameweek 20.

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1,057 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Deulofail
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    It's my birthday today. I just turned :')

    1. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      FIVE!

      1. dark91
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Happy ffsversary. You join the elite FIVE group 😉

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Congrats.

    3. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      First day of a new curfew here, though. What a way to mark my transition to manhood.

    4. Dreams
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Happy birthday Deulo.

    5. Black Knights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Time flies.

      1. In a Rush
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Happy birthday old boy

  2. Alisson WondHaaland
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Based on the cup starters Id imagine Sterling and Gundo are probably safe picks in terms of starts. Even more tempted by Sterling now

    1. Niho992
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If Bruno starts vs Liverpool im selling KdB for Sterling and C him

    2. Begbie.
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Have you not watched him this season?

  3. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Villa - Newcastle predictions?

    1. Begbie.
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      3-0 Villa

    2. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Abject disappointment

    3. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      1-1

      1. In a Rush
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Hoping for 0-0

    4. LSK
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      2-1

    5. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Hoping for a Wilson haul as for some reason I've still got him and he's my best differential. Hoping for lots; expecting little.

    6. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      0-0

  4. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Was thinking it would be great if the FPL cup was revamped so it was more of a separate side game where you effectively get a free hit each week and aim to pick the best team for that GW.

    It would match a bit the real FA cup (where lineups generally look pretty different to the league), help avoid the chip problem (I've had it in the past where opponents seem to deliberately play BB or TC in the first round of the cup) and as a whole make the thing more fun than it is today (you wouldn't be able to see your opponents team in advance, would allow you to experiment with one week differentials that you would never do in your normal team etc.)

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Thats a great idea and definitely would make it more fun

    2. George Sillett
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Tbh I think that the end result would be a load of very similar teams.

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Yes thats true. I love the surprise of seeing a dead team with lundstram etc atm

        1. George Sillett
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I love the surprise of seeing my team the following morning after a night on the pop.

    3. The VAR Team
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Imagine all the casuals taking a -32 thinking it's their cup team

    4. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Like this idea

    5. Pipermaru
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Leave the Cup alone, even with all of these changes we would lose to some zombie teams, it's great as it is. There's some kind of magic that anybody can win it, don't want to change it into another hardcore fest.

      1. George Sillett
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Well said.

    6. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A nice idea but would likely require a lot of coding to accommodate several teams per account so it seems unlikely

  5. In a Rush
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Here’s my set up at the moment

    Martinez
    Dias stones Coufal
    Salah Gündogan Bowen Lookman Bruno
    Bamford kane

    Johnstone Dallas zouma Vardy*

    0.3 Itb 0ft
    Should I take Vardy out for a hit or wait until next week?

  6. DangerFC
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Current team
    Fabianski mc. Carthy
    Dias, stones, dier, bailly, KWP
    son, kdb, grealish, saka, bruno
    Kane, antonio bamford

    Where should I invest the KDB money? I'm thinking foden or rashford. Who's the best replacement?

    1. tbos83
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Gundo cheaper and on pens

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Taken A couple of pens recently, but doesn’t mean he’s nailed on pens

  7. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    As a Dias Stones owner in looking on buying one of Gundo/Cancelo.
    The problem is that if I go for Cancelo this won't happen right now but it will be for gw21. I'm worried that Cancelo can be benched Vs SHU if Walker is back. Would I go Gundo from this gw then?

    1. In a Rush
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I own both of those as well and went for Gundogan.

    2. Dwotle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Cancelo plays on the left as well, and is arguably more effective there. Seems first choice ahead of Zinchenko and Mendy atm.

  8. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Ferran Torres at #9... Oh my

  9. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Team:

    Martinez
    Dias Stones Coufal
    KdB!! Salah Son Grealish Bruno
    Wilson Watkins
    (Forster Mitchell CTaylor Brewster)

    0,5m in bank 1 FT. Best option:

    A. KdB to Sterling/Mane/Rashford
    B. KdB to Maddi this week and Wilson to Kane next week
    C. KdB to Gundo this week and Brewster to Kane next week (Would create bench dilemma though)
    D. Something else

    Thanks!

    1. In a Rush
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B looks good to me

  10. Davros
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Looks like foden won’t be playing next GW then?

    1. In a Rush
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not necessarily, see how many minutes he plays tonight.

  11. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Really considering Cancelo captain for GW20

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Same

    2. Dwotle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Good underlying stats, OOP, 3 great fixtures, best defence in the league.

    3. A. PRISE
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Could turn out great to be honest. Although it is a bit of a punt considering that you will be looking for attacking returns

      1. Ron_Swanson
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        You’d take a clean sheet and a BP or two

  12. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Martinez
    Cresswell Cancelo Dias
    Salah KDB Bruno Grealish Raphinha
    Antonio Bamford

    (Steer Robbo Mitchell Brewster)
    1 FT & 0.3m

    A) KDB & Brewster ➡️ Gündo & Kane -4
    (Exact cash so will have to make the transfers tonight as both players are close to rising and also bench Raphinha)

    B) KDB ➡️ Son
    (Raphinha to Barnes/7.7m in GW21)

    Thoughts?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Enjoy the bench points.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Can't do anything about it now can I

    2. Messiah Hazard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Is Gundo likely to play false 9 or is Jesus fit again? Or will Foden be the false 9 now?

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Have you considered turning your tv on?

        1. Messiah Hazard
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Thanks, I see Jesus is fit again :-). Didn’t realize there is an FA cup game going on. The schedules for the US West Coast throws everything out of whack. It was too early on a Saturday morning.

  13. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    What do I do with this lot?

    Mccarthy, Johnstone
    Robbo, Stones, Coufal, Justin, Alioski
    Salah, Son, Bruno, Soucek, Raphinha
    Vardy, Bamford, Adams

    2FT £0 ITB

    Vardy, Adams and Salah need to go I think but who should I bring in?

    1. Messiah Hazard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Vardy and Salah out for Kane and a midfielder

  14. Messiah Hazard
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Soucek Son Fernandes Saka KDB* is my midfield.

    Who’s the replacement for KDB for a -4? Money no object!!!

    Liverpool last few games have been poor... So not very convinced on Salah.

  15. Erez Avni
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    play one:

    A. soucek
    B. Adams

    1. Messiah Hazard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Soucek

  16. Benjustjamin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    will KDB drop in price now he has been red flagged?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      yes

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes, though has significantly increased threshold to drop. Will likely drop by 0.2m I think.

      1. Benjustjamin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks both. .2 drop would perfect

    3. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/

      The Notes at the bottom of this site are very useful in understanding FPL market concepts

  17. Erez Avni
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I feel like I don’t have all the hot players... should I WC or can I fix it with a couple of transfers?

    martinez
    chilwel robo coufal justin (lowton)
    son salah bruno (soucek)
    adams vardy bamford

    cheers!

    1. fc_skrald
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Noone is hot besides Kane and Bruno. Just get Kane

      1. fc_skrald
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        And a ManC defender...

  18. Ze_Austin
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Man City ref pauses the match because sparks from fireworks above are hitting them on the pitch

    And that's nowhere near the weirdest statement of this month

  19. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Must have some money if they can afford to let off fireworks for this long.

    1. BeaversWithAttitude
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Surely, this is the city putting fireworks on? Not exactly a backyard display.

  20. Gerd Mueller’s thighs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    On wildcard.....looking for some differentials. No Liverpool, Spurs and United attack, City defense, Leicester for form, and a little Villa for fixtures.

    Areola, Martinez,
    Dias, Stones, Mings, KWP, Justin
    Pogba, Bruno, Son, Barnes, Gun
    Kane, Antonio, Cavani

  21. The VAR Team
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Perhaps a controversial question, but why are people so eager to get in Son this week? He has a though fixture and hasn't really performed recently bar the Leeds game.

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He’s playing a team that won’t park the bus

    2. Pipermaru
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      KDB injured, Liverpool just lost to Burnley, proven asset for 4 seasons and counting etc. No reason to overthink.

    3. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He's got a great record playing counter attack against top teams and he's actually been pretty good recently - he should've had at least G+A against Sheff U. And he's absolutely nailed, which is quite rare at the moment...

    4. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Best long term pick and KDBhas to be removed

  22. Chandler Bing
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Safe to say Raz starts this weekend? Looking to bring either him or Rashford and currently swaying towards the former.

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Should do

    2. ALegendJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes he should start

  23. Firminooooo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Wow. Best fireworks I have seen in years in first half and still 0-0. Hope they keep it up in second half.

  24. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Which 3 City to buy?

    A. Stones
    B. Sterling
    C. Cancelo
    D. Gundogan

    1. Dwotle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      ACD

    2. ALegendJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      ACD

  25. ALegendJ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Anybody know where I can find stats about FPL in general like how many managers the game had in season 16/17, how many players per country , etc.?

    Thanks ahead

  26. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Just seen the plymoth goal vs shu

    Seriously think Ramsdale could be the work keeper in pl history (yes hes worse than kepa)

    1. ALegendJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      In history, not there yet, but he is close 😀

    2. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Guy is terrible. Big part of the decline in defensive performance this season compared to last season.

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        When i mentioned that he was the worst keeper in the league the day shu signed a few in here actually thought he was the reason Bournemouth nearly stayed up

        Couldnt believe it

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      For anyone who hasn't seen it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9anTaMhQEU&t=1m13s

    4. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      This makes me want to hit in Cavani even more. Horrific.

  27. Mr Tin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Current Team:

    Martinez Nyland
    Mitchell Justin Stones Bednarek Cresswell
    Grealish Salah Bruno Son Bissouma
    Bamford Kane Antonio

    Options on transfers:
    1) Bednarek > Cancelo
    2) Bissouma > Gundogan

    2 creates a benching headache but with so many players dropping out it could be a benefit.
    What say you kind people?

    1. ALegendJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      1

    2. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      1

  28. migas2k7
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Foden or gündogan and why? (KDB replacement)

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Gundo seems more nailed, Foden doesn’t even start half of the games

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Gundogan getting rested tonight and more likely to start PL games- also on pens

    3. Dwotle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Gundo for consistency and nailedness.

  29. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Gondo or Son, Son or Gundo?

  30. The Ejiptian King
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I know Stones has played 90 mins in each of his last 6 league appearances, keeping 5 cleansheets in the process and recently scored a brace but is he nailed?

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes. Pep ain't dropping Dias and Stones.

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Got them both, but not sure pep won’t rest one of them this or next GW

      2. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Sarcasm isn't your strong suit.

        1. RamaJama
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Hopefully better in my mother tongue 😉