Pro Pundits

What I’ve learned about key FPL assets at half-way stage of unpredictable season

As we are midway through the season, it is an important time for some reflection which, for me, involves pausing and looking at some numbers.

And, anyone who knows me well enough should not be surprised to see that includes assessing the performance of big hitters against opposition of varying degree. 

It has not been a good first half of the season but, with all my chips intact, I’m hoping I can turn things around in the second half of the campaign. I’ve been making some steady progress in the last few weeks but it isn’t the Nitro boost I’m hoping for. 

I’ve recorded six green arrows out of the last eight Gameweeks where I’ve steadily climbed from 3.1 million to 1.47 million and I am hoping that trajectory continues.

This article is based on what I did at two previous occasions last season as well where I look at the performance of big hitters against different quality defences and try to make sense of the numbers and how it can help us in the future. This is the link to my previous article.

Just like my last piece on this subject, I divided the league into three tiers of defence (based on my opinion, form and some statistics). They are fairly similar to the assumptions I had last time around but please treat them strictly as my opinion. 

Then using the very useful ‘Per 90’ and ‘Performance Versus’ filters from the Premium Members Area, I tabulated the performances of these big hitters against the three categories of defences to see how much of an effect the fixtures have on them. 

I’ve delved further with my analysis this time around to see if we could gauge anything substantial from this data.

First off, the categorisation of teams is as follows:

  • The Kolarov (Top Tier) – Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottehnham Hotspur, Leicester City, Manchester United
  • The Lescott (Middle Tier) – Arsenal, Burnley, Everton, Wolves, Aston Villa, Southampton, West Ham
  • The Bramble (Bottom Tier) – Brighton, Newcastle United, Leeds United, West Brom, Sheffield United, Fulham, Crystal Palace

This table comparison gives us the Goals + Assists per 90 for these assets against different defences in the previous season as well as this season. The first thing that jumps out to me is the averages. 

While there was a distinct difference in the performance of assets against varying opposition in the previous season, the same hasn’t been the case this season. This is one of the reasons my ‘upside chasing’ strategy where I try to bring in players to captain in a good fixture hasn’t worked as effectively as last season primarily because broadly speaking, the performance of these premium picks against Kolarov (0.5 to 0.6) and Lescott (0.6 to 0.8) teams have improved. 

Secondly, players are not as explosive against Bramble teams as they were last season (1.0 to 0.8). And thirdly, my subjective opinion is that the likes of Harry Kane (£11.1m), Bruno Fernandes (£11.3m) and Son Heung-min (£9.7m) who are the highly owned assets in this game, haven’t really slowed down to an extreme degree which makes going for other big hitters, even for captaincy, more risky than it was last season because simply put, you’re betting against players who aren’t really slowing down.

Let’s now look at the performance of players on a team to team basis.

MANCHESTER CITY

Let’s talk about Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) first (in case you missed it, he looks out for a while). He’s playing in a slightly different position compared to last year and while he was hugely consistent against opposition of varying degree last season, he’s underperformed a bit against the Kolarov and Bramble teams this season. 

This makes sense to me because of two things. Firstly, Manchester City haven’t been the same free-scoring team this year that they were in the last season and arguably more value lies in their defence. Secondly, I also put down De Bruyne’s underperformance down to the fact that he and his compatriots have missed a lot of the chances created as well and he has been underperforming compared to his underlying numbers. It is worth noting that he has three goals and an xG of 7.48 this season. 

Raheem Sterling’s (£11.4m) numbers expectedly have gone down this season. What is worth noting is that he still has fairly strong numbers against ‘Bramble’ teams and is facing West Brom and Sheffield United in his next two fixtures. It is also worth noting that Phil Foden (£6.3m) has done fairly well against Kolarov and Lescott teams in the limited minutes he’s afforded against them.

Liverpool

Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) has fairly consistent numbers compared to last season with a slight improvement in performance against Lescott and Bramble teams. This despite the five blanks (hello Zambian FPL addict) that he has had off late. It is worth noting that Salah still has the second best performance against Bramble teams, behind Jamie Vardy (£10.1m). 

Sadio Mané’s (£11.8m) numbers are still fairly consistent against Kolarov and Lescott teams but he’s seen quite a fall against the Bramble teams this season. The emergence of penalty picks and Mané’s form quite hasn’t been there in the first half of the season and it is worth monitoring if things change in the second half of the season.

MANCHESTER UNITED

When it comes to the Manchester United assets, it’s all about Bruno Fernandes (£11.3m). He’s shown a drastic improvement in his performance against the Kolarov and Lescott teams. He’s behind only Kane for performance against the Lescott teams and is as effective as Salah against Bramble opposition, which makes him a safe go to captaincy option against obliging defences. Marcus Rashford’s (£9.6m) numbers have reduced against good teams but he has seen a substantial improvement against poor teams. Such is Anthony Martial’s form (£8.8m) that his numbers have deteriorated across the board. 

THE OTHERS

The big story here is the Spurs assets. While I don’t have Son’s numbers from last season, Both him and Kane do incredibly well against all three kinds of opposition. 

The numbers for Kane and son against opposition of different category make sense to me as you’d expect Son to be more effective against Kolarov teams where they are expected to counter and you expect Kane to do better against Bramble opposition where you’d expect the opposition to sit deeper. 

Kane’s numbers have improved across the board from last season. Son is second only to Foden against good teams which is a good sign for those looking at him for De Bruyne replacements with the game against Liverpool incoming. Both players are best in class against Lescott teams which is the prime reason for fixture chasing with other premium assets simply hasn’t been as effective. Kane is a more reliable captain against more obliging teams. 

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s (£11.3m) numbers have dropped across the board and he simply hasn’t been in form this season. He does have the highest Non-Pen xG numbers in the league in the last four Gameweeks so things do look like they are changing. 

Historically, Auba is a good bet against weaker opposition but Arsenal’s fixtures don’t look very appealing in the mid-term. Vardy (who is also going to be out for a while) has done really well this season. He has increased his output against good opposition (hat trick vs Manchester City, goal and assist vs Spurs, assist vs Man United) and has been the most explosive asset amongst all the premium big hitters against obliging teams. 

He has a staggering 1.7 Goal + Assist/90 against such teams which is a shame because Leicester City had a good fixture run and he would have been a great asset to own in these fixtures based on his previous appearances.

Here is just a last look at these numbers for this season and three things stand out to me.

  1. The Spurs assets have good numbers across the board 
  2. Bruno, Vardy and Salah’s reliability against obliging teams could be key in the second half of the campaign.
  3. How these averages compare to last season

 That said it doesn’t take much time for the Fantasy landscape to change and I will be looking forward to doing a similar analysis at the end of this season.

Good luck to everyone preparing for Gameweek 20.

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1,057 Comments Post a Comment
  1. 420king
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Been watching this game for 5 min and wondering how it's not 0-10.

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Cheltenham played really well first half.

    2. The Train Driver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Lol same here

    3. Ron_Swanson
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If you watched it all you’d know

    4. The Train Driver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      The Gundo and Cancelo effect.

  2. Bielsa Murderball
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Grealish or DCL?

    1. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      G

    2. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      DCL

  3. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Pep getting angry about the long throws and drying the ball with the towel.

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Rory Delap says hello!

    2. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He hates small towels because they remind him of drying his hair 😥

  4. The Ejiptian King
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Damn.

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Hey mate
      Do you think stones is nailed ?

  5. The 12th Man
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Come on Cheltenham

  6. The VAR Team
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    What's Carroll doing in the line up? Wilson playing wing? What is this?

    1. Ron_Swanson
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      4-4-2 IMO

      1. The VAR Team
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Two strikers? You'd think Bruce wants them to score

        1. Patio Kev
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Didn’t work against Arsenal though with both Wilson and Carroll starting.

      2. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        5-4-1

    2. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      2 up front

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Nah.

        Wilson out wide.

        Left attacking midfield / winger?

    3. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Survival tactics for Bruce

  7. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Foden over Gundo... Straight into the trap I fall

    1. _Ninja_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Still a chance Foden starts v wba.

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        He will start!

      2. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Foden LW Sterling RW Bernardo CAM is what I'm thinking

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Rubbish MOT tonight & rescued them

  8. Londongeezaa
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Ok so which City midfielder do we get?

    A/ Gundo
    B/ Foden
    C/ Sterling

    1. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Made me think about other teams, this game!

      1. Patio Kev
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Silva should be on that list too and might be playing no10.

  9. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A few more Cancelo (C)'s just got locked in

    1. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      It's tempting!

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Bruno 90mins tomorrow and it’s done

    3. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I’ve been on it

    4. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Too risky for me. Ajayi is a threat and Pereira seems to have found some form.

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        West Brom 0-5 City

  10. StayoutheSpiceZone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Right

    Got Cancelo and Stones:

    Do I
    A) remove Saka for foden/gundo/silva
    B) remove Brewster and get Jesus (therefore keeping Saka)

    1. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Be really interested in your views guys ...

    2. Volley127
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A for gundo. Not b

    3. djman102
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Jesus did not do much to convince Pep to play him. I'd do A or maybe not do anything and go with Saka if you don't want to play Pep Roulette.

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers fellas

  11. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bench one -

    A. Holding (sot)
    B. KWP (ARS)
    C. Mitchell (WHM)

    1. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Holding

    2. Black Knights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I’d go A cos I’m a homer.

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    4. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    5. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A because Ings is back.

  12. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Foden spraying the balls about like KDB

    1. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He’s superb

  13. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    How many bonus points is Cancelo on after that assist? Foden all 3?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      ?

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      3 pts

      1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        TC

  14. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Sterling nailed now for Tuesday probably ?

    1. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Would assume so

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        They needed to score and Pep didn't transfer Sterling in.

    2. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      3 points banked.

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        13*

  15. Riverside Red
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Can any Villa fan please tell me why El Ghaszi has been benched again?

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Barkley

      1. Riverside Red
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        And...

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Because Barkely is back so he's playing CAM & Jack is on LW.
      Traore is first choice RW with Gazi & Trezguet as competition

      1. Riverside Red
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Why is Traore first choice after Gazis recent performances....what does a player have to do to keep his place...Perhaps a name change to Barkley

    3. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Because Dean Smith feels Traore is better than him.

    4. popey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He was never first choice, came in after Trez injury. Will still get minutes though expect mostly off bench.

      Barkley coming in means Jack plays LW. We have 3 wingers fighting for one spot and one of those wingers (Traore) was bought for £18m in the summer.

      El G has always been a streaky player, his championship record wasn't great so to expect those returns to continue is madness.

    5. rokonto
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Because i got him in last week....

  16. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bruce knows his job is on the line in the next 2 or 3 games...

  17. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Foden looking great in that KDB role

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Against?

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        True but you can only play what's in front of you and it was a tough game for city until they made the subs

        1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          True but cant rate performances based on this game.

    2. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes, but starting and playing 90 mins in a cup game is concerning for him starting against West Brom.

  18. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Wilson’s going for Kane on Monday but it would be nice to get a goodbye gift of a goal from him tonight.

  19. MissouriMarten
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Never seen Ilkay Gundogan and Roger Federer in the same room together...

  20. Captain Vantastic™
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Gundawg assist.

  21. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Torres H

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Goal

  22. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Torres G

  23. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Torres g Gundo a

  24. _Ninja_
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Torres goal gundo a

  25. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Everyone getting goals except Gundo

    1. _Ninja_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Saving them for wba game

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He's keeping them for PL

  26. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Cancelo AA
    Gundogan A
    Torres G

    Pep's subs pay off

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Cheltenham were knackered by that point too.

    2. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Cancelo only 1 A and Torres started

  27. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Cancelo sub made huge difference

  28. ivantys
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Luckily city came back. Saves FH29 ppl.

    1. S.Kuqi
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      How?

      1. ivantys
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        So ppl with no FH won't have city players to save their GW.

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I still have my FH but my season is beyond salvation now anyway.

        2. S.Kuqi
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Nice one. I'm one of those fh29 plp.

          1. ivantys
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Even if GW29 is left with just 3 fixtures, it's still fine as everyone else doesn't have players for them.

        3. Black Knights
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          They wouldn’t have had a game if Wolves beat Saints next round anyway.

          1. ivantys
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            I won't expect Wolves to beat anyone now so safest is for city to go through.

        4. Lord.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          City wouldn’t have been a differential anyway.

          1. ivantys
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            You'll have more advantage over someone with triple city, as it will be just free 8 players (and imagine you picked the wrong city players) for you compared to free 10-11 for you with no city fixtures.

  29. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Torres G Gundo A

  30. Manani
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on Gundogan as KDB replacement?

    1. _Ninja_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      For 5.5m he's a great shout. and on pens.