Gameweek Guide

The Complete Guide to Scout’s tips and advice for Gameweek 30

FPL is back after its international hiatus with the little controversy of another Double Gameweek announcement – Tottenham Hotspur will play twice in Gameweek 32.

As well as covering the usual captain dilemmas and some tasty one-week punts, the Guide to Gameweek 30 will look at how this affects our plans: what should we do with Gareth Bale (£9.6m) and could a “popular pasta dish” be on the menu?

We have a Saturday deadline this week and you have until 11:00 BST deadline to make any last-minute changes to your side. 

Effective Kane

Harry Kane (£11.6m) is set to be the popular armband pick against relegation-battling Newcastle United. 

Kane created four chances, had four big chances, [and] get this – shots inside the box: eight, shots on target: six – these are prime Kane stats.

– Joe, Captaincy Video

His impressive form over the last four matches led Joe to describe the England captain as the sensible choice. But is he the best choice?

Son Heung-min (£9.4m) looks set to recover from a bout of “international-itis” and could exploit a known weakness in Newcastle’s right flank. Joe and Pro Pundit Tom Freeman both highlighted the opportunity for the South Korean.

Tom noted that a switch to a back four at the end of January has seen the Magpies concede more chances down their right than any other team.

A vulnerability that fits neatly with Son’s shot heatmap this season. 

Above: Son Heung-min’s 2020/21 shot heatmap

And could adventurous left-back Sergio Reguilón (£5.5m) be another Spurs player to benefit from this area of susceptibility?

Penne for your thoughts

Speaking on the Scoutcast, Chris (aka el Fozzie) was not particularly impressed, pronouncing Reguilón’s name like a “popular pasta dish” (well it was dinner time), but Spurs aficionado Sam pointed to some encouraging stats for the former Real Madrid defender:

Reguilón has registered 17 attempts on goal so far this season … he is also top for successful crosses from open play among Mourinho’s squad.

– Sam

While the Spaniard might be a step too Farfalle for some, not so for Ted, who added Reguilón to his plate of Spurs players ahead of Gameweek 29. 

However, the graphic-creating manager found himself umming and ahhing about another of his new recruits, Gareth Bale.

Bale out

Following a no-show in Gameweek 29, the Welshman’s subsequent comments weren’t great news for owners and Spurs fans alike. Season ticket-holder Sam felt that “they don’t hint at a player who is here for the benefit of the club and its supporters.” 

Concerns over his game time make Bale a “wait and see” for high-flying Pro Pundit Andy. While Sam summarised the impact that Blank Gameweek 33 could have Mourinho’s team selection in her latest article:

Spurs will have both eyes firmly on the League Cup final against Man City, as it is now their only opportunity to bring silverware back to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season. This could also have a big impact on the teams that Spurs set out in Double Gameweek 32, as the Southampton match falls just days before the trip to Wembley.

– Sam

For Andy, the other issue with the blank in Gameweek 33 is that managers could potentially have a lot of money sitting on their bench in the form of Kane, Son and any Manchester City players. 

I would argue that there’s a case to just stick with a couple of Spurs players for the double.

– Andy

But with Spurs facing Sheffield United and Leeds United after the blank, benching our Lilywhites and selling Man City players could be the better ploy.

Slam Dunk

Indeed, Portuguese FPL machine, no not Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) but Hall of Fame No 1, Fábio Borges, sold Cancelo (£6.1m) for a hit ahead of Gameweek 29.

When revealing his analytical decision-making process, the former poker professional explained how he set aside bias and gut feeling as he methodically worked out if Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) was worth buying for a minus four.

A six-point return would suggest that he was.

But even if [Dunk] blanked”, reasoned Fábio, “I would be happy with my decision of taking a hit, knowing that if I keep making transfers with a positive expected value in the future, it will work out more times than not.”

Echoing words from his interview last year:

Just because someone blanked twice in a row, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he is suddenly a bad pick and the same applies to poker – just because you lost one hand, it doesn’t mean that you played it poorly.

I think that being able to distance myself from the short-term results is one of my biggest strengths in FPL and poker played a huge part in that.

– Fábio Borges

Lateriser, when discussing identity in Fantasy Premier League, endorsed Fábio’s approach:

I have generally found the good managers are the ones that are not affected by the results but focus on the process. Temperament is an incredibly underrated thing in FPL.

– Lateriser

Another manager who has displayed an admirable temperament this season is Fábio’s closest rival at the top of our elite ranking system, Tom Stephenson.

Late Riser

As Greyhead noted when exploding the myth that a good start is crucial, the Hall of Fame No 2 was at the three million mark in Gameweek 3 but has risen to 4,261 – on track for a fifth top six thousand finish in six years.

Tom was Joe’s latest Meet the Manager guest during the IB and, like Fábio, plans to play his Wildcard in Gameweek 31. (Note that the interview was recorded before the Double Gameweek 32 announcement, so Tom included just Kane from Spurs.)

Aside from a good temperament, a further similarity Tom shares with Fábio is placing importance on ‘expected minutes’. For this reason he was reluctant to add Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) to his Wildcard squad:

I’m a little bit resentful about having to pay [nearly] 12 million and not know whether a player who I’d probably captain as well … is going to start.

– Tom Stephenson

The possible exception to this rule are one-week punts.

For those planning to play their Wildcard in Gameweek 31, Gameweek 30 presents just such an opportunity, with Tom among those considering a potentially rewarding move for Marcos Alonso (£5.7m).

The Spaniard, who was rested over the IB, is Tom Freeman’s top differential for the upcoming round of fixtures.

…When used correctly as a wing-back he has real quality, something Tuchel has recognised. Since Gameweek 21, when Alonso made a return to Chelsea’s starting XI in a 3-4-3 system, he has taken 13 shots. No defender can match that total during that period, despite limited minutes.

– Tom Freeman

But as Chelsea embark on a lovely run, bringing in at least one of Edouard Mendy (£5.2m), César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) or Antonio Rüdiger (£4.7m) is more of a priority for those thinking long-term.

And while the two Toms and Sam are plotting moves for their first Blues defender, Andy is considering a double-up. With Rüdiger already part of his XV man squad, the popular Pro Pundit is looking to add Mendy in goal. Two could be the magic number:

I’d provide a word of caution on the triple-up, though. While it looks good for the next few weeks, and I’m sure it’s something that Gameweek 31 Wildcarders will consider, you also need to think ahead about how to get out of it when the fixtures turn in Gameweek 35.

– Andy

In addition to Alonso, who Jan considers Chelsea’s best captain option in Gameweek 30, Joe threw Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s (£7.6m) name into the hat for one-week punts. The Everton forward has scored the most headed goals this season, while Crystal Palace have conceded the most headed chances.

Playing with FPL Fire

Jan went against the grain in the latest edition of Captain Sensible. The double-points maestro did acknowledge, however, that Kane is a reliable pick:

While this might not be a truly high-scoring and convincing win by Mourinho’s men given Newcastle’s defence-first approach, it is difficult to suggest Kane is unlikely to get an attacking return.

– Jan

But he feels that Leeds United have a better opportunity.

Over the last six matches, no team has conceded more shots on target than Sheffield United.

– Jan

Raphinha (£5.7m) and Patrick Bamford (£6.7m) are therefore Jan’s first and second choices for the armband:

It is Leeds midfielder Raphinha who emerges as my top captaincy pick for Gameweek 30. The tricky winger tops the creativity charts for midfielders and is a constant goal threat too.

– Jan

An opinion backed up by Ted on the Scoutcast, who confessed he would probably captain Raphinha if he had the guts.

But bravery might not be the only factor at play when deciding who to trust with the armband – effective ownership (EO) could play a part too.

There is no doubt in order to make serious ground, you need to bet against the template.

– Zophar

Zophar succinctly encapsulated the predicament facing many managers. 

And there could be real rewards for being different and going against the crowd. When charting the finer points of EO, Az cited a thread by FPL Swede, who revealed that only five times in 29 Gameweeks had the most captained option been the highest-scoring player among the main runners and riders for the armband.

But knowing when to stick and when to twist is undoubtedly the key.

To illustrate his point, Az used two examples of his FPL Black Box co-host, Mark, paying attention to EO. The first was owning Timo Werner (£9.2m) in Gameweek 1, when Mark was protecting himself against the sizable ownership and unknown quantity the German presented. 

The other was when he captained Raphinha over Bamford in Gameweek 25 and exploited the Brazilian’s status as a differential against Bamford’s big EO.

Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water

But don’t sell good assets just for the sake of differentiating, cautioned Zophar, “calculated risks are the key to ‘upside chasing’”. 

The seven-time top eight thousand finisher looked ahead to the fixture swing in Gameweek 31, identifying the teams and players to target.

As former FPL winner Simon March counselled, fixtures, and their difficulty, are likely to have a significant influence on how players perform in the future. They can help us avoid the feeling that our new transfer has waited for us to fully buy into them before suddenly becoming useless.

So it was perhaps slightly surprising to find that Leeds pair Raphinha and Bamford were both included in Zophar’s selection, despite facing Manchester City, Liverpool, and Man United before Gameweek 34. 

But Tom Stephenson agreed, including Raphinha in his Wildcard draft. Planning ahead, Tom noted that Leeds finish the season very well. 

Also featuring in Zophar’s shortlist were Liverpool trio Mohamed Salah (£12.4m), Diogo Jota (£6.7m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m). The FPL Wire co-host reasoned that the return of Fabinho (£5.4m) to midfield boosts the prospects for the attacking full-back.

And Wolves offered a few names for consideration.

All four of Zophar, Neale, Andy, and Tom Freeman picked out Conor Coady (£4.8m).

No defender has been afforded more big chances (three) than the Liverpool Academy product over the last six matches. And the return of Willy Boly (£5.4m) could help remedy Wolves’ vulnerability in the air.

During his in-depth look at Nuno Espírito Santo’s team, Neale highlighted that “goalscoring remains an ongoing issue: seven goals in their last 10 top-flight matches is this shot-shy season in microcosm.

But Pedro Neto (£5.7m) presents the best attacking option for those tempted:

The Portuguese winger is top or joint-top among his teammates for the following metrics: shots on goal, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances, penalty box touches, successful crosses, chances created and big chances created.

– Neale

Neto is included in Tom’s Gameweek 31 Wildcard draft.

Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures

Neale reviewed the latest results in the FFS Open Cup and Members Cup.

There will be a new name on both trophies this season as the two remaining former winners, Lokomotiv and Pep Pig, were eliminated in Gameweek 29.

While the David vs Goliath clash of the lowest-ranked manager against the highest, came down to ‘rank difference’ as 415th-placed The Fighting Cock benefited from his lofty perch to overcome Jonathan Ojao following a 45-all tie.

The battling rooster takes on stonerrocks in round five of the Open Cup.

There are six rounds to go in both cups and the finals are set to take place in Gameweek 35.

Elsewhere, RedLightning brought us his usual round-up of the latest Community mini-leagues and competitions.

Phil Olorenshaw is enjoying an excellent campaign, leading four of our featured mini-leagues, while in Head-to-Head League 1 last season’s sixth-placed finisher Aleksander Våge Nilsen has a narrow three-points advantage over Ville Tuominen

The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 30 can be found below. 

The scores and tables are now updating every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds. 

May your arrows be green!

TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside. Follow them on Twitter

1,781 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bishopool
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Sterling for..

    a) Mount
    b) Havertz
    c) Ziyech
    d) Pulisic
    e) keep Sterling

    1. Patrick Bateman
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I like B. Especially for a punt of you have your WC left

  2. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Aubameyang > Bruno?

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      for free , then yes 🙂

    2. SH
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Y

  3. Patrick Bateman
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start Laca or Bale?

    1. SH
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Laca

    2. abides
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Tough, probably Bale as he's more likely to not play at all if he doesn't start

  4. abides
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    PLAY one of these three:

    A) Bale
    B) Cancelo
    C) Sterling

    1. Patrick Bateman
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      It has to be C

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      C for sure!

  5. Quan MisTaka
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Chances of the below starting?

    Rudiger
    Gundo
    Bale
    Son
    Dias

    1. abides
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      80%
      70%
      50%
      100%
      90%
      imo

  6. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Coufal to Alonso for a hit?

    1. Sid07
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      No

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      About to do it for free. Not for a hit

  7. AzzaroMax99
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    A) Aina to Rudiger and bench Dias

    B) Save FT and play Dias

  8. HD7
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Dallas or Shaw, mates?

    Both have nice fixs... maybe Ole rotates Shaw though Ole isnt a big fan of rotation

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Shaw 🙂

  9. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play one:

    A) Gundogan
    B) Lingard

    1. Nate01
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

    2. Mufc202020
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

  10. Nate01
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Hey guys does christensen start?

    I just feel TT will give rudiger a rest

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      https://twitter.com/siphillipssport/status/1378233971323113474?s=19

      I reckon Silva starts. I would have though so even before seeing this tweet, since Christensen played 180 mins over the break, whilst Silva rested.

      LCB is a tricky one to call.

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I feel like I'm not going to win Powerball this week.

  11. Jdpz
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    a) Antonio to Werner
    b) Auba to Bruno
    c) Auba to Salah
    d) Sterling to Bruno (I have Gundo)
    e) Sterling to Salah

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B or C

  12. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Martinez
    Cancelo, Azpi, Digne, Dallas
    Bruno, Son, Raphinha
    Kane, Bamford, Antonio

    Johnstone I Lingard, Gundo, Stones

    Gtg? Help me with the bench pls

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      BB Chip 😉

  13. Muscout
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Captain which one and why?
    A) Kane
    B) Raph

    1. Nate01
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B - rested

      1. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        you think Kane will be rested? source?

  14. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play (have KDB):

    1. Gundogan (lei)
    2. Watkins (FUL)
    3. Konsa (FUL)

    Thanks

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      2

  15. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play Soucek or Gundogan?

    Thanks

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      G

    2. robbo3d
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Soucek

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Always Soucek

  16. Mufc202020
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Bottomed

    Ederson to Mendy worth the FT for the reason of the season?

  17. Piksau
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Captain Pick?
    A Bamford
    B Raphina
    C Son
    D Kane

    1. abides
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      C

  18. sunzip14
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Any reliable sources on late Chelsea team news?

    Need to know if Rudiger will start or not. Will ruin my BB from the very first match if I get him in and he is benched!

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      You looked at BB32?

  19. upforgrabs
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    A) Bale -> Fernandes
    Dunk -> Alonso

    or

    B) Bale -> KDB
    Stones -> Alonso

  20. SH
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Targett or Struijk? Have Martinez as keeper.

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Im playing Struijk with Martinez

  21. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Pick one

    A Cancelo > Alonso
    B Cancelo Alderweireld> Cancelo Reece(-4)

    1. Weeb Kakashi
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Alonso Reece(-4)

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B has a typo I think or Cancelo to Cancelo is a bit sideways

      1. The Ilfordian
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Esp for a hit

    3. SH
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A

  22. SerieD
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    BB: (Pope) Keane, Adams, Soucek

    Have Bale and stones starting.

    Yes
    Or
    NO

  23. Mr Johnson
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Gundo or Watkins for this week?

    1. SerieD
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Gundo for me

  24. Weilong7
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    bench 1 of the below.. playing martinez

    azpi coufal targett dias

    thanks

  25. arkom
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play one?

    A) Reguilōn (NEW a)
    B) Gündo (LEI a)
    C) Watkins (FUL h)

    1. SerieD
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Regu

    2. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A

  26. JenkoJunko
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Saka to Jota? Yay or Nay?

    1. SerieD
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      ..jota maybe.

    2. JaydenLFC87
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yay

    3. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yes

  27. mayofc2000
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Please quick questions

    1) Targett, Lingard or Gundogan (I have martinez)
    2) Captain Kane, Bamford, Raphina, Fernandez ?

  28. andymck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play dias or cancelo?

  29. JaydenLFC87
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Cancelo > Alonso for free yay or nay??

  30. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Would you start Gundogan over any of these?

    Kane
    Bamford
    DCL
    KdB
    Bruno
    Son
    Raphinha

    Thanks

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      No, international minutes the big reason.

    2. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      No

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers both