Pro Pundits - Andy

Vardy vs Kane, latest on Chelsea defenders and what to do with Fernandes

Even with five Gameweeks left of the season there are so many big talking points in the Fantasy Premier League community.

I have taken a closer look at the three most important ones ahead of Gameweek 34…

Vardy to Kane

There was a lot of disappointment from FPL managers who swapped Harry Kane (£11.8m) to Jamie Vardy (£10.3m) after the latter blanked. The key question is should that transfer be reversed.

Both players have pretty good fixtures in Gameweek 34 and 35:

  • Kane = Sheffield United (home), Leeds (away)
  • Vardy = Southampton (away), Newcastle (home)

As we know from Neale’s article earlier this month, there is a chance that Leicester get a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 35 which would add Manchester United into the mix. It’s not the perfect double but it does mean that Vardy has three fixtures in the next two.

We do need to take into account that if that happens it would mean Vardy and Leicester blank in Gameweek 36. So from Gameweek 34 to 36 both Kane and Vardy have the same amount of fixtures but if you delay the switch back until Gameweek 36 you can get an extra fixture.

Both players have penalties in their locker so that doesn’t differentiate them. Looking over their last six matches the stats look like this:

  • Kane = 16 shots in the box, 5 chances created, 5.64 non-pen xGI
  • Vardy = 11 shots in the box, 8 chances created, 4.05 non-pen xGI

Kane comes out on top as you might expect, but Vardy is still chipping away. Over the season their xGI per 90 is Kane (0.69) and Vardy (0.70).

The other thing to consider if Kane’s fitness. We didn’t get a proper look in the EFL Cup final as he didn’t get a huge amount of touches of the ball, so we will need to see what Ryan Mason says about his fitness.

For me I think I’d ride out the Vardy move. You have the potential of an extra fixture and can still look to make the switch in Gameweek 36. I might recommend not watching the Spurs game though…

Is it time to sell Chelsea defenders?

At this point we’re all aware of just how good Chelsea’s defence is. They’ve conceded 25.79xG so far this season, just behind Man City at 24.92, making them an elite defence.

One of the issues we have to contend with is rotation, at this point every defender including César Azpilicueta (£5.9m) has been rested, even the goalkeeper! The only thing in my mind that might reduce the amount of rotation is Chelsea are still in with a serious shot of top four in the Premier League, and Tuchel will want to put his best team out as often as possible.

Looking at the fixtures though, it may be time to jump off anyway.

Fulham (home) in Gameweek 34 and Aston Villa (away) in Gameweek 38 are their easiest fixtures left. Outside of that they have to play Manchester City, Leicester and Arsenal, as well as another Champions League semi final, and the FA Cup final.

I wouldn’t necessarily back against their defence in general, we know how good it is and they won’t concede many goals in that period, but with tougher fixtures and some fear of rotation we can probably start planning to get rid after Fulham.

Stuart Dallas (£5.3m) ends the season with Burnley, Southampton and West Brom. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.6m) has West Brom, Burnley and Crystal Palace, while Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has Brighton, West Brom and Southampton.

They are all different prices so it depends on your budget, but there may be other ways to get clean sheets during the run in, depending on when you want to sell your Chelsea defender(s).

Selling Bruno Fernandes

I touched on this in my previous article and thought Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) was probably worth keeping for Burnley and Leeds, but with another two blanks people are getting fed up.

Over the last six matches he has just one goal (a penalty vs Man City) and one assist (vs Brighton).

It’s not all doom and gloom however. Over the last six matches no other midfielder has a higher expected goal involvement than Fernandes with 4.40. Even if you remove the penalty it’s still 3.61 which would put him only behind Mohammed Salah (£12.7m).

Liverpool is a tough match and if you have your Free Hit left I think you can make a case to sell. For any potential Double Gameweeks you could still bring him back in, and as I’ve mentioned in previous articles I don’t see him as the best captaincy option at any point between now and the end of the season.

If you don’t have your Free Hit, you have a much tougher decision to make. A bit like Kane vs Vardy, Fernandes might get a Double, but he would then blank as well. So if you were thinking of selling to Son Heung-min (£9.5m) for example, they’d both have the same number of fixtures, and arguably with Sheffield United up next, Son is better in the short term.

However, you could just keep for Liverpool, hope for a Double and then look to sell in Gameweek 36, given that a double as shown in this article would be Aston Villa and Leicester.

One thing to consider though is a lot of fans think that Fernandes needs a rest, and the ideal time looking at the schedule could be against Aston Villa in Gameweek 35. He’s only not started one game this season, but with Europa League, Liverpool and Europa League to come we could see his second league benching. Top four is all but secured, and the current schedule has the second Europa League leg being played on the Thursday and then Aston Villa on the Sunday, before Leicester in midweek.

If I had him I’d be tempted to stick and hope that he’s not rested. While the points haven’t been coming in the underlying stats still look good and with a double to come it wouldn’t be a fun watch without him.

1,302 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Tempted by Rudiger to Dallas... How to fund it?

    A) Veltman to Struijk
    B) Jota to Perreira

    1. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

  2. Somnus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Bench 2;

    A) TAA
    B) Shaw
    C) Dallas
    D) Dunk
    E) Holding

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Last two easy

      1. Somnus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        That's what I'm on currently, but the betting sites have Dunk as the highest probability clean sheet out of the 5....

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          Ignore them

    2. Fitzy.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Not sure what the first two are doing on the list...

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Not sure what Dallas is either

  3. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Need to raise 0.3 to get Kane. Which one?

    A. Gundog >> Raphinha* / ASM
    B. Rudiger >> Llorente

    So tempted by the Saint!!

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Gundogan to ASM or M.Pereira

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Just short of Periera matey 🙁 worth a punt on ASM?

  4. GROBARI
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Would you keep this defence with Rudi out for now
    Rudi* Coady TAA Shaw Fofana

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yep

    2. TVPlugSockets
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Keep

  5. Catastrophe
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Best defender @ 4.4? Already have Holding and a crocked Phillips.

    Cheers

    1. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Llorente.

      1. Catastrophe
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Good shout, thanks

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah Llorente easy

      1. Catastrophe
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers.

  6. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Vardy to repeat Southampton away from last season after most have sold LOL

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Can’t see it personally

    2. Pukkipartyy
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      U are not bringing Kane in? Im in the same boat...(Scared)

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Will have both - Vardy, Kane, Nacho

  7. Gideons Rolling Another One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Got the cash to do Gündogan to Bale.

    Got Kane, no Son though. 0.2 off Son... Bale worth the punt? Or just play Gündogan?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Do it

    2. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Like the move

  8. Tshelby
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Really could use some help! Chasing ML with 60 points..
    Think he will do Vardy for Kane so Vardy could be my differential

    Vardy to Kane and Jota to? (-4)
    A) Pereira
    B) Saka
    C) Harrison

  9. Dragon1983
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Is there any news when Phillips might be back ??

  10. Gandalf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    A. Dias > Dallas (might save a -4 down the line)
    B. Stick with Dias

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A

  11. De Gea is GOAT
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play 1:

    A Coady
    B Jota
    C Struijk

    Also playing Salah and Dallas. Thanks guys

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

    3. De Gea is GOAT
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Thank you!

  12. ‘Tis the Season
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Do I have my bench right ❓

    Replace with * or not??
    Mendy TAA* Rudger Coufal
    Greenwood* Salah Son Lindz
    Nacho DCL Kane
    (Holding Shaw* Jota*)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Rudiger is out

    2. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Play Shaw over Rudiger

  13. seewhyaxe
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    no press news from David Moyes?

  14. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    need help

    mount to

    a siggy
    b lingard
    c keep mount and hope he plays, 2 ft could be handy next gw

  15. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    1. Rudiger + Fernandes -> Digne + Son. (-4),
    2. Fernandes -> Son.
    3. Save the FT.

    Martinez.
    TAA, *Rudiger, Dallas, Shaw.
    Salah, Bruno, Lingard, Greenwood.
    Iheanacho, Kane.
    Steer, Jota, Watkins, Burn.
    1ft, 0.3m ITB, No more chips.

  16. Kasper the ghost keeper
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Have Leno, should I start?
    A) Veltman
    B) Holding

    1. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      a) - Newcastle have ASM and Wilson

  17. MGMT
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Who to start, Shaw or Holding?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Shaw

  18. TVPlugSockets
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    I have Rudiger and Philips.

    Would you do:
    Rudiger -> Christiansen
    Or
    Phillips -> Lorente (and keep Rudiger hoping he’s fit for next week..)

  19. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Everton fans! Is Coleman nailed?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      No Everton fans here?

  20. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    A or B?
    A. Play Jota
    B. Rudiger -> Coufal
    C. Rudiger -> Coleman

    Thanks, sorry repost.

  21. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    With this week mainly in mind Rüdiger to

    A Dallas
    B Digne

    Will probably move Alonso to whichever one I don’t get next week

  22. DavvaMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    What order would you put this bench in please?

    Jota | Veltman | Holding

    Much appreciated.

    1. Sho-kun
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Jota
      Holding
      Veltman

    2. Kielty
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I would keep it in the order you have now

  23. Sho-kun
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    what to do here? have 2 FT

    Mendy
    Shaw/TAA/Rüdiger
    Son/Lingz/Jota/Bruno
    DCL/Kane/INacho

    Forster/Coufal/Saka/Coady

    A) Coady --> Coleman
    B) ??

  24. Shineonme
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    I saw a post a few pages back saying vardy isn't travelling. Is that true or fake news ?

      1. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Thank you

    1. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Fake, wish it was real.

      1. HashAttack
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        It's okay - makes a nice diversion whilst Nacho racks up the points 🙂

  25. Mane Mane Mane
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Which three defenders do I play out of TAA, Holding, Coady, Rudiger?

    1. Sho-kun
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      TAA, Rüdiger, Coady

      start with Rüdiger, but watch your bench order

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      i've got all 4
      rudiger is out this week
      some rumours of holding rested whilst coady/wolves no confidence after last week
      I'd upgrade one of them to Dallas or hope for the best rolling a transfer

  26. ZAMUNDA
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    A lot are selling Rudiger. Is he out?

    1. Oh Mane Mane
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Confirmed injured by Tuchel today

      1. ZAMUNDA
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks guys!

    2. Boss Hogg
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Chance of being rested.
      To be honest I think Silva and Chilwell will definitely be rested with Zouma and Alonso coming in. I think Rudi starts this week.

      1. Boss Hogg
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Just seen Tuchel's comments! Ignore what I just said. He's injured!

  27. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start 1:

    A) Jota
    B) Vydra

  28. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Coady to (for free):

    a.) Dallas
    b.) Castagne
    c.) Digne

    ???

    1. Oh Mane Mane
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      C as has the possible double next week with a fixture in GW36 also

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      dallas for sure, g2g for the remaining fixtures
      digne if you feel the dgw will deliver

  29. Oh Mane Mane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Mendy
    TAA Rudiger Holding
    Maddison Bruno Salah Jota Lingard
    Kane Iheanacho

    Forster Shaw Coady Vydra

    2.2ITB

    Was originally thinking Coady and Maddison to Konsa and Son? Need to free up 0.1 to get Son.

    Although this Rudiger news is interesting, could just bench him for Shaw..

    Any thoughts?

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      i'd easily play shaw ahead of holding anyway
      rudiger out instead isn't a bad shout with their run in

  30. Pep bites Kun
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    What time is the Spurs presser?