Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Pro Pundits 7
1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Buck The Trent
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Crazy to go with Auba instead of Pepe?

    On penalties and hauled on last day of last season

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Brighton are no pushovers and Arsenal is in steady decline since mid 2000's so I wouldn't 😉

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I went auba

      1. Eastman
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Toss up but I’m going Auba

  2. Ohh1454
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Will ASM play do we think ?

  3. West Hammered
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Pickford
    TAA Dallas Stones
    Salah Son Bale* Foden* Lingard
    Bamford Kane
    Holding Shaw Brewster

    A) Bale & Brewster to Raphina & Antonio -4 (Bench Foden)
    B) Foden to Raphina (Play Bale)
    C) Bale to Raphina (Play Foden)
    D) Pickford to Mendy (Play Foden & Bale)

    Start
    1) Stones
    2) Holding
    3) Shaw

    1. Bedok
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B & 2

  4. el polako
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    What's the expect level of carnage around 14:00 ?
    Both ffs and fpl to go down ?

  5. cigan
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    What would your team look like if you had FH for this round?

    1. JBG
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Ederson
      Chilwell-TAA-Dallas
      Raphinha-Salah-Willock-Mane
      Kane-Antonio-Bamford

      Not sure I could afford that but.

      1. cigan
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Very similar to what I was thinking, Rudiger & Mount for Chilwell & Willock the only changes

        Playing keeper (Sanchez/Areola?), Willock and Lowton on bench just in case

  6. Nay08
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    so I'm chasing 28 points. which unlikely to do but just gonna take my shot, there's no difference from 28 or 50 points behind lol.
    will C Mane instead of Salah. what transfer should I make?
    1. Keane to Tierney
    play a little bit "safe" without a hit
    or
    2. Phillips and Kane to Robbo and Wood (-4)
    Robbo to differentiate from TAA that my rival has and Wood for amazing form and fixtures. but a -4 and transfer out Kane that chasing golden boot(my rival has Kane and Salah. no Mane).

    Team: 0.3 ITB
    Leno (Foster)
    Dallas, Coufal, (Castagne/Keane/Phillip)
    Salah, Mane, Son, Lingard, Raphinha
    Kane, Bamford, (iheanancho)

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Play Phillips, don't take hit.
      Sell Son and get midfield differential.

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        I wouldn't bench Ikenacho against this Spurs team.

  7. nicecat
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Start
    c. Coufal
    g. Gundo?

    1. Bedok
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Coufal, Gundo may have more upside potential but is likely to only get a few minutes, if he plays at all. Also, it really depends on the rest of your team and if you just want the most points or are trying to win a league.

  8. Lexi2014
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    2FTs

    Bruno to Pepe?

    Mesilier (McCarthy)
    Dallas / Konsa / Coufal (Aina / Mitchell)
    Salah / Son / JWP / Willock (Bruno)
    Kane / Antonio / Bamford

  9. Agamenmon
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    I have 2 ft

    Which 2 moves should I make

    1 Calvert lewin to Bamford
    2 Ings to Antonio
    3 Mahrez to Torres or someone else

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      1 + 2

  10. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Play Pickford or Forster?

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Forster

  11. AlpoShearer
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Pope
    TAA - Castagne - Philips
    Salah - Greenwood - Raphinha - Lingard
    Kane - Antonio (C) - Nacho

    Martinez Bruno - Shaw - Veltman

    A. Bruno to Torres -4, bench Greenwood
    B. Shaw to Dallas -4 , bench Greenwood
    C. GTG
    Chasing 14 points...

  12. chocolove
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Antonio or Bamford guys?

    1. Cowboy John
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Antonio.

    2. injury_prone
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      who are you other 2 strikers? I have both so tough call to pick 1.

    3. Agamenmon
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I am thinking of both but if I had to go for 1, Bamford

    4. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Bamford

  13. JoBro
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Fabianski playing today??

    1. injury_prone
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      seems 50/50, moyes said would be last min call. One hope though he has missed the odd game this season but always just the 1 so hoping he plays. 2nd keeper for me with bench boost.

  14. klopp2567
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    thanks to getting willock in ML. This is last chance to reduce the gap and come on top and i am hopeful of that.
    With my team as below
    Martinez
    Digne Taa AWB Dallas Konsa
    Bruno Son Willock Lingard Green wood
    wood DCl Bamford

    and opponents team being
    Martinez
    Coufal Taa Dallas Lowton Veltman
    Bruno Son Salah Raphina Harrison
    Nacho Ings watkins

    I am thinking of -4 and getting Salah and Antonio or Salah and robertson in place of Bruno and wood or Bruno and Awb.
    Any tips plz need huge help here?????

    1. Scrumper
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Wouldn't get rid of wood

  15. jonnybhoy
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Meslier to Mendy worth -4pts or just hope forster plays?

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      No goalkeeper is worth -4 for just one week.

      1. GOTHAM City F.C.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        In this case is -2

        1. el polako
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          0 is better than -2.

    2. artvandelay316
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Same situation as you and in reflection I decided it wasnt worth a hit, because most you can score is 3 points if keeper keeps a clean sheet, and if he doesn't you've lost 2 points. Better to just take a gamble of Forster.

  16. colin.mcdonald
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Left with a bench boost due to awful management. Do we think it is worth getting rid of Bruno and Shaw for hits? I’ve already used my 2FT to get rid of Coleman and Meslier

  17. MoSalalalalalalalalah
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Forster > Allison? Any other recommendations appreciated

    Forster
    TAA | Rudiger | Dallas
    Salah | Lingard | Foden | Greenwood
    Antonio | Kane | Nacho

    GK: Martinez | Zaha | Digne | Veltman

    1. GOTHAM City F.C.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Ya, the rest of the team looks fine

  18. Muscout
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Really need your thoughts guys, just and A or B and reason please

    Martinez
    TAA Rud Dallas
    Salah (c) Greenwood Lingard Willock
    Kane Watkins DCL

    McCarthy Zaha Shaw Dier

    2.8itb, 1 FT, 25 points ahead in ML

    A) DCL to Bamf
    B) DCL to Nacho (rival has him)
    C) anything else

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A and B but get rid of watkins too

  19. Babelcopter
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Too much? Im 21pts behind in ml. Kane, DCL, Bruno, Jota out Antonio, Wood, Pepe, Mane in for -8. Mane (c).

    1. Toonmad
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Probably as you will be starting 29 points behind

    2. GOTHAM City F.C.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      You need couple of differentials including a captain. Maybe just -4 and play Kane

  20. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Harrison or Pepe is the question!

    1. injury_prone
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Pepe

    2. artvandelay316
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Pepe

  21. GOTHAM City F.C.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    8 points ahead of rival, 2.3itb, 1FT. Only 6 players in common.

    Meslier, Forster*
    TAA*, Coleman, Holding, (Ward, Amartey)
    Salah*, Bruno*, Son, Lingard, Willock
    Kane*, Bamford*, (Benteke)

    Their team 2.4itb, 1FT
    Fabianski, Forster*
    TAA*, Dallas, Dawson, Fofana, Coady
    Salah*, Bruno*, Greenwood, Harrison, JWP
    Kane*, Bamford*, Vydra

    A. Coleman ➡ Dallas
    B. Bruno ➡ Mané
    C. Both for a hit?
    D. Coleman, Benteke ➡ Dallas, Antonio (-4)

  22. The-Red-1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Areola benched?

  23. KAALI_DAAL
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Play Aina or DCL?

    1. Scrumper
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      DCL

  24. Scrumper
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Is Nacho worth a -4 to avoid Watkins as first on the bench (have Shaw in starting 11 so bench likely to be used)

  25. cuppatea78
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone think Bruno will be rested? If so who is a good replacement? I already have Son, Salah, Lingard

  26. indy13
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Hey all. Thanks to everyone who donates their time on this site each year so that people like me can have somewhere to go for advice, guidance, rants and more!!

    Final question of the season?

    Start
    a) DCL
    b) Zaha
    c) take a -4 on one of these two and bring in Raphinha/Mount/Kane

    I have Zaha, Pepe, Salah (c), Grealish and Lingard in midfield
    I have DCL, Bamford, Antonio up front.

    1. artvandelay316
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      C- Raph

  27. Tomerick
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    How likely are Bruno and Shaw to play?

    1. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Bruno coming on from bench, and Shaw not in match squad is what I am expecting

  28. arkom
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Start:

    A) Mahrez
    Or?
    B) Greenwood

    1. artvandelay316
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

  29. bjarnia87
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Play Bamford or Antonio

    1. Tomerick
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Both. Bench someone else.

      1. bjarnia87
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Ok, i meant who of those to get in my squad? Have DCl kane and
        Vydra

        1. Tomerick
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Oh well that’s a very different question. Personally I went Antonio as I have Harrison.

  30. battlecat
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Seen a few comments relating to Antonio’s last GW record. Does that mean GW37 as it can’t be last season’s GW38?

    Cost me my ML getting him on my Free Hit last year. Booked and hooked at half time for a GW score of zero.

    Not aware of his last matches of the season before that apart from in 2012 when he scored to seal Wednesday’s promotion to the championship.

    1. Tomerick
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I seem to recall him grabbing a hat trick at the end of one season can’t be sure though.