Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Pro Pundits 7
1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ste7ieBoy
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Which sounds the best option?

    A) Wood/DCL -> Bamford/Antonio
    B) Bruno/DCL -> Mane/Bamford or Antonio

    1. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Got Wood? Keep.
      B with Bamf

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

    3. popcoin
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Are you selling Wood because a rival has him? Otherwise definitely keep.

      I’d suggest B out of those. But probably just DCL to Antonio

      1. Ste7ieBoy
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Rival has DCL but not Wood
        Need a differential to overcome 8 pt deficit

    4. ameisin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

      1. ameisin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        With Bamford. Leeds will go nuts today.

  2. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Start Jota or Zaha?

    1. popcoin
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Jota

      1. Booked4Dissent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        That’s terrible advice! Jota has a “tiny chance” of playing. Zaha can score against anyone and has got braces at the Emirates before

        1. @persecuted_by_mods
            2 years, 10 months ago

            What's he doing at the Emirates though

            1. Booked4Dissent
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 years, 10 months ago

              Haha damn morning drinking

              1. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
                • 12 Years
                2 years, 10 months ago

                I'll take a brace from him at wherever 🙂

          • popcoin
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 10 months ago

            Sorry, I just back Jota to score if he comes on and plays 25 mins over Zaha against this in-form Liverpool team. If Jota doesn’t play, no problem

    2. popcoin
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Who to start and order of bench?

      Christensen
      Holding
      Vydra
      Smith-Rowe
      DCL
      Stones

      1. theroadrunner
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Start: Chritensen Holding Stones
        Bench: Smith Rowe Vydra DCL

      2. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Start Smith-Rowe, Vy and Holding
        Bennch order: DSC

      3. Bedok
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Start: Christensen, Holding, Smith-Rowe
        Subs: Vydra, DCL, Stones

      4. popcoin
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks all

    3. theroadrunner
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Long post please bear with me. 1 point behind my ML leader. Covered 65 points past 4 GWs and it boils down to this:

      MY TEAM

      Guaita
      Robbo TAA Dallas Lindelof
      Bruno Salah Lingard ASM
      Antonio DCL

      Bench: Meslier Zaha Adams Digne

      HIS TEAM (I assume he'll lineup like this as it stands):

      Forster
      TAA Holding Rudiger
      Bruno Salah Son Lingard Greenwood
      Bamford Kane

      Bench: Meslier Strujk Digne Brewster

      Which should I go for:

      1. Bamford in for DCL and no -4
      2. Bamford and Wood in for Adams and DCL -4
      3. Bamford and Greenwood/Raphina in for DCL and Bruno -4
      4. Bamford and Chilwell in for DCL and Digne -4

      1. Scots Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        2. If playing Woods over Bruno.

        1. theroadrunner
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Playing him over Lindelof maybe

      2. Tinkermania
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        That's tricky. I feel he trumps you as it stands. I think he will outsmart you and get Mane for Bruno. Why the need for Bruno this week? Can you afford Bruno and DCL out for Mane and Bamford?

        1. Dichio24
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          He already have 3 Liverpool

          1. Tinkermania
            • 4 Years
            2 years, 10 months ago

            Oops! He is in trouble!

      3. ILOVEBAPS
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        3 with Raphinha

      4. jonnybhoy
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        1

    4. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      GTG? Wish you all good luck, except my ML rivals 😀

      Martinez
      TAA Phillips Rudiger
      Salah(C) Son Raphinha Lingard
      Bamford Kane Watkins

      Sanchez Greenwood Digne Coady

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        And OR rivals as well 😉

        1. Botman and Robben
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah, the OR 1 in my country. Has a 19 point lead!

      2. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Yes, G2G, GL!

    5. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      is Jota first sub good enough?

      1. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Yup

      2. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        I've already sold him

    6. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Digne to Robbo worth a hit?

      1. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Considering this too... Leaning yes.

    7. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Aubameyang is calling to me....

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Remember the story of the Sirens?

        1. Mr. O'Connell
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          I don't think I can help myself

    8. The Polymath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Done my transfers, ain't taking no risks after missing the deadline last week. 😀

    9. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Start one:

      A) DCL
      B) Greenwood
      C) Digne

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        DCL

      2. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      3. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Ouch...
        Greenwood edges DCL for me... just

      4. Gizzachance
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B just

      5. DannyDrinkVodka
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers all, Greenwood is edging it then

      6. jonnybhoy
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

    10. Ohh1454
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Doubt it’ll matter but start konsa or Targett ?

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Targett

    11. Lionac
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Which two to bring in for a hit?

      A) Mane
      B) Bamford
      C) Antonio

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        BC

    12. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Only 3 hours left...

    13. chelseabrad
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      11 pts ahead of my ML rival but he has bench boost

      Meslier
      TAA AWB Coufal
      Salah Son Greenwood Lingard Raph
      Kane Antonio

      (Forster Wood Holding Coleman)

      He has 2 villa def, Dallas, Gundogan, Bruno over Greenwood, Bale over Son, Bamford, DCL & Nacho all of which I don't have...

      A) Meslier > Alisson? Or Castilla?
      B) Meslier & Wood > Alisson/Castilla & Bamford for a -4
      C) Other?

    14. TRE2
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Is the ownership page on Livefpl.net live, or based on ownership at the last deadline?

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Last deadline

        1. TRE2
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Thanks

    15. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Start

      A Rudi
      B Dallas

      1. Jon Snow
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Tough, Dallas for me

      2. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      3. Pep bites Kun
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

    16. Jon Snow
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Pick one:

      A) ASM
      B) Greenwood

      1. Gizzachance
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

    17. Pickle juice
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A. Firminio and torres
      Or
      B. Mane and Nacho

      Thanks

      1. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B easy

      2. Gizzachance
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      3. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      4. Pickle juice
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers guys ..

      5. Pep bites Kun
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

    18. JabbaWookiee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      General consensus on Dias starting? Playing BB and want a full 15. Swap for Azpi/Chilwell/United def?

      A) Keep and hope
      B) Sawp for Azpi
      C) Swap for Chilwell
      D) Swap for someone else

    19. southcoastbeast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Will bruno start today ?

      If not bruno to mane for a hit ?

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Ain't taking the risk, Mane is a good move.

        1. southcoastbeast
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers good luck.

    20. Lucky Z
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Is it worth to wait with my 2FTs until deadline with the hope of leaks?

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        I gave in, can concentrate on my captain choice now.

    21. Gizzachance
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Morning all, Thoughts? 1ft, 1.5 itb, good lead in ml leagues just outside 3k

      Mendy
      Taa dallas holding
      Salah c ling son mahrez
      Kane nacho Antonio

      Forster jota• shaw holgate

      Thanks
      Good luck all

    22. Mane Mane Mane
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I’m 46 points ahead in my ML and just need some advice. My team is…
      Forster
      TAA AWB Holding
      Salah Son JWP Raph Greenwood
      Kane Antonio

      Meslier, Strujik, Burn, Davis

      For a -4 should I
      A) Greenwood to Mane
      B) Davis to Firmino (bench Greenwood)
      C) Davis to Wood (bench Greenwood)
      D) nothing

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        A

      2. School of Poch
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        A

    23. PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      On behalf of my wife..
      Antonio in for free for..

      A. Nacho
      B. Watkins

      Cheers!

      1. Traction Engine Foot
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      2. BERGKOP
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      3. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      4. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

        1. PompeyUpNorth!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Wow! Overwhelming thank you folks...

      5. School of Poch
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

    24. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Start
      a) Reguilón (lei)
      b) Samedo (MUN)

      1. Traction Engine Foot
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        A

      2. School of Poch
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        A

    25. Traction Engine Foot
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Good to go?

      Henderson
      TAA Digne Dallas
      Salah Lingard Greenwood Raphinha
      Kane Iheanacho Bamford

      Sanchez Pereira Targett Castagne

    26. School of Poch
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Would really appreciate some advice on the following.

      Currently on same points as ML rival and stuck between the following transfer options. Both teams posted below.

      A: Watkins > Bamford
      B: Bruno > Mane
      C: Both for a -4

      My team:
      Mendy
      TAA Dallas Holding
      Salah Bruno Lingard Raph
      Kane Antonio Watkins

      Forster Siggy Coady Veltman

      1FT 1.5ITB

      His team:
      Meslier Forster
      Dallas Digne Robbo Castagne Adarabioyo
      Bruno Greenwood Lingard Son Zaha
      Kane Antonio Bamford

      1. Dichio24
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        You have the strongest team. No hits! Just do B

      2. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        B

      3. BigAsGiroud_
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        I’m thinking exactly the same move. Tempting to do Bruno to Mane, and a little bit worried about Bamford’s time, So just maybe just do B and I will do it as well.

      4. School of Poch
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Is B so popular because people expect Bruno not to play?

    27. StellaMan
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Punt on Augy or KDB?

    28. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Can we expect much from Zaha today?

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Numerous expressions of disbelief and disgust.

      2. @persecuted_by_mods
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Couple of dives, shouting at the ref, being moody, walking around, and then a yellow card around 85 min mark

          1. @persecuted_by_mods
              2 years, 10 months ago

              If we're lucky

          2. Scots Gooner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 10 months ago

            Standard Zaha then. Think you're both right. He can stay on the bench then

        • Gizzachance
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          A Mahrez to Pepe bench jota
          B Jota to raph bench mahrez
          Cheers