Why FPL managers should pay attention to the return of home fans

Gameweek 1 is out of the way and what I’m genuinely feeling is a lot of relief. After the poor season I had last year, I was just lacking confidence in my decision-making ability and was dreading another poor start. But I’m sitting here on 107 points and the self-belief is slowly starting to come back. It also helps that you have to make one decision this week and not 15.

I’m going to, as usual, freestyle with this article and talk about a few things that stood out to me in Gameweek 1.

HOME ADVANTAGE: GOALS

The first thing I noticed was the quality of the football that was on display with the fans back. It was a lot more intense and miles better than what we witnessed last year. The impact of the supporters was witnessed in Gameweek 1 itself: there were 21 home goals scored and 13 away. You might argue that most of the favourites won in Gameweek 1 but the home advantage is real, as cited by this brilliant article written by our Editor, Neale (ED: I did not add this compliment in).

I was inspired by this piece and decided to take a closer look at how the teams with the big hitters do when it comes to the home-away goal distribution – and the findings are very interesting.

As you can see in the data above, last season was very much an anomaly. There was a close split between home and away goal percentages. The biggest difference can be seen in Liverpool’s numbers. They normally score around 50 goals at Anfield under Jurgen Klopp but last year they found the net on only 29 occasions. Their defenders being injured for most of the season might also have a part to play here but the key takeaway is that more often than not, the big teams score 55-60% of the goals at home.

HOME ADVANTAGE IN FPL

How do you use this in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), you might ask? Just make sure you are weighing the home factor in the decision-making process, would be my suggestion. I personally expect this home factor to be even greater in the first few Gameweeks because the players were craving for strutting their stuff in front of the home fans. If you don’t believe me, just listen to what Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.0m) had to say in his post-match interview on Match of the Day:

“It was special, it was special, man. Having them back, it felt like I was making my debut again, when I was 19 years old. Just that atmosphere and raw emotion is what you play football for. Scoring goals, last season I scored a few with no fans there, that was my favourite one by a mile.”

We hear you, Dom, we hear you.

SALAH CAPTAIN?

There are home crowds and then there is the atmosphere at Anfield. It is for this reason that I will likely be captaining Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) in Gameweek 2.

I said in my previous article that I want to refrain from trying too many different things early in the season and while the upside of the Manchester City game versus Norwich City is very enticing, I don’t think I’ll be going there with my captaincy. Bruno Fernandes (£12.1m) makes a strong case for the armband as well because as long as Edinson Cavani (£8.5m) is not starting up front, the strikers that Manchester United have tend to drift wide and make a lot of infield runs – which opens up the space for Fernandes. We saw this on display in the pre-season friendly against Everton as well as in the game against Leeds United.

Solskjaer specifically talked about this in his post-match interview:

“I know that the headlines will probably be about Bruno or Paul but this is a team effort. The space Mason [Greenwood] creates for Bruno when the two open up the channels has been worked on this week.”

Fernandes makes an enticing captaincy candidate against a team that conceded 11 shots in the box in Gameweek 1 but I am expecting Liverpool to be a lot stronger in their home game against Burnley (who allowed Brighton and Hove Albion 12 attempts in the area), primarily because I thought their midfield was light in the first game and they were visibly stronger once Fabinho (£5.5m) and Roberto Firmino (£9.0m) were on the pitch. What I love about Salah as a captaincy option is that more often than not, Liverpool’s opposition is chasing a game in the final 20 minutes and Salah scores a lot of his FPL points in that period when the game is stretched.

FPL PLAYERS ON THE RADAR

There are four players who are very high on my radar at the moment: Son Heung-min (£10.0m), Mason Greenwood (£7.5m), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.0m) and Jack Grealish (£8.0m) are ones I am closely monitoring as I sit here contemplating the sale of Diogo Jota (£7.5m). Thankfully, Liverpool are the first game of the weekend and I’m hoping to get some news on this front. I expect Firmino to start against Chelsea in Gameweek 3 which is why I’m expecting Jota to get 90 minutes across the next two Gameweeks combined.

Greenwood had poor statistics in the match against Leeds United but I thought he was pivotal in how Manchester United performed and I was very convinced by the runs he was making. Manchester City are a wounded animal, as well, and I liked what I saw with Grealish, especially when Kevin De Bruyne (£12.0m) was on the pitch. Son having a free role close to goal and being on all set pieces is very enticing as a prospect given his next three fixtures but getting him requires a four-point hit and a downgrade for Ivan Toney (£6.5m).

That is all from me for this Gameweek. I hope you enjoyed reading this article and wish you the best of luck in Gameweek 2. If you want to know more about Gameweek 1, we do an in-depth review on The FPL Wire, linked below.