Five tips for FPL managers on a Gameweek 4 Wildcard

The international break is almost over and normal service is about to resume. We have seen a lot of Wildcards being used over the last fortnight and looking at a lot of the drafts, I do have some bits and pieces of advice to give to those who are deploying the chip. My only intent with this article is to offer some food for thought to those hitting the ‘activate’ button.

For what it’s worth, I’m currently not on a Wildcard and I mentioned on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire why that is the case. We also discuss Wildcard picks in detail in case you want to check it out. Below is a small snippet.

Now that that is out of the way, let us start with the basics.

1) Take a Long-Term View for Defence

Make sure that while selecting your defenders, you’re looking at the Season Ticker for eight Gameweeks at the very least. I’d look at the ticker for ten Gameweeks, for what it’s worth. Defence is not where you want to be spending future transfers. 

It is this reason why I’d probably ignore a Manchester United defender, for example. Yes, the fixtures in the next three Gameweeks are good for the Red Devils, but not so much after that. I know that United did very well in tough matches last season but I am still a firm believer in fixtures when it comes to defenders. I also think Manchester United are not as fixture proof at the back as perhaps a Chelsea or a Manchester City are.

2) Balancing Risk

This is a big point and applies to both defence and attack. Let’s talk about defence first.

If you’re betting on a defender like Andreas Christensen (£5.0m), you need to have sufficient cover on your bench. There is a slight Thiago Silva (£5.4m) threat and if you want to pick Christensen (I think he’s a really good selection), make sure that your fourth defender is a nailed-on £4.5m asset. The Dane could miss some games and you want sufficient cover should you want to go that way. Don’t be owning Christensen, Livramento (£4.1m) and another £4.0m defender. Simply put, that is asking for trouble.

The same applies in attack. The opportunities that exist with Diogo Jota (£7.6m), Mason Greenwood (£7.7m) and Ferran Torres (£7.1m) are great and there is a pretty big upside with all of them. But I would warn against owning all three. In case it doesn’t work out (because of the obvious risks attached) for all three, which is the worst-case scenario, suddenly you are panicking on a Wildcard. And this is assuming that you might not have other fires to put out in the future.

If you are on a Wildcard, one of the biggest advantages is being a few moves ahead of the chasing pack and having a risk-balanced wildcard squad means that you’re leaving yourself space to make opportunistic transfers in the future instead of always putting out fires and owning all three of the above names means that you are risking exactly that. I think it is okay to own two of them given your other picks are risk-free and there is definitely no problem with owning atleast one of them. Just make sure you’re balancing the risk in your squad and have a strong chunk of picks that you are happy to leave in your team for a long time. Don’t get drawn to all the shiny new toys and make sure your squad has a heavy selection of ‘sure things’.

3) The Chelsea Spots

Chelsea are top of the Season Ticker from Gameweek 7 onwards for a long time. They look like they are going to assert a strong title challenge and a lot of Fantasy Premier League managers will be on Chelsea triple-ups from that point.

My current opinion is that Romelu Lukaku (£11.5m) and Reece James (£5.6m) are the best two picks from the team at the moment. You can obviously start with Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) and switch later to Lukaku if you want to play the fixtures, and that is your call, but I would make sure that I have at least one Chelsea player if I was playing a Wildcard now. I’d go with James, and a strong playing defender in Gameweek 4 to play instead of him, or with Christensen.

The fact is that this season is still only three Gameweeks old and we don’t have enough information with regards to who the right Chelsea assets are. Ben Chilwell (£5.7m) is still falling in price and could be an absolute gem in a few weeks’ time (he’s the better pick versus Antonio Rudiger (£5.5m) if nailed), and there are also a couple of midfielders from Thomas Tuchel’s side who might make a strong case for inclusion in your team in the near future.

Keeping these factors in mind, I’d throw in one Blues player in my squad at the moment but I wouldn’t go more than two Chelsea assets in my Wildcard squad (assuming one of them is Lukaku) so that I leave space open for a third correct spot once we get time to process more information.

4) Don’t draw conclusions

Simply put, we’re very early in the season. I wouldn’t be bullish on any opinion formation this early into the campaign. This is the time to absorb as much information as possible, keep an open mind and try to assess how the season might play out. Now is not the point at which you put your neck on the line with any opinion. Now is just the time to be a sponge and let things marinate in your head.

The data and inferences that emerge out of Gameweek 4 will represent 25% of the information from 2021/22 as a whole. The point of me citing this is to let you know that we still don’t know a lot and the impact of emerging data every week is very significant, which is why you need to have an open mind and not form conclusions at this stage.

5) Go the extra yard and do some more research

You are picking a team right now for a long time. The next Wildcard is pretty far away at the moment so take that extra time in selecting your players. Read more articles, check more historical data, find more quotes and information. Make sure you’re going that extra mile to play Devil’s advocate with each pick. Also, think a little macro and predict where you might be spending future transfers; if it feels like you’re planning too many moves, I would re-work my Wildcard to make sure you leave some open space to react to what happens in the next few Gameweeks.

A couple of other factors.

I do think you go for two premiums and not three for squad balance (I think one big-money midfielder and one similarly priced forward seems ideal at the moment). I personally would not give up on Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) in defence. His numbers look very encouraging early on and he is fully capable of another 200-point season.

That is it from me for this Gameweek. I don’t want to overwhelm you further, and just think of the above as just some ‘friendly’ advice. You obviously need to back your own thinking and conviction, and my intent is to only offer food for thought.

Until next time.

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